Week in Review: The Calm Before the Storm

‼️🇺🇸 🇮🇷 #US vs #Iran: Pre-Strike Buildup Reaches Critical Mass

What we're witnessing is not "increased pressure" or a "negotiating posture." This is a textbook pre-strike force deployment

➡️ Two carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford) are now converging on the Middle East. A single carrier group signals deterrence. Two signal an operation. The combined air wing comprises approximately 240 strike aircraft, including F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, F-35C/A, F-22A, F-16, and F-15E platforms, supported by EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft, E-2D/E-3 AWACS, P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol, and KC-135/KC-46 tankers

➡️ Since mid-January, the US has conducted roughly 200 C-17 Globemaster III transport flights to the region. At approximately $25,000 per flight hour and 11 hours per round trip, transport costs alone exceed $55 million — excluding the deployment of dozens of other aircraft and naval vessels

🇯🇴 THAAD missile defense systems have been deployed to Muwaffaq Al-Salti Air Base in Jordan, with at least 68 cargo aircraft arriving within five days. THAAD is not a deterrence tool — it's a shield you raise when you know the counterpunch is coming

🇳🇴 The US is withdrawing most of its aviation assets from NATO's Cold Response 2026 exercises in #Norway, scheduled for early-to-mid March. This is a direct resource reallocation from "training" to "operational" status

🇵🇹 Portugal's Lajes Field in the Azores experienced its largest-ever influx of American aircraft: at least 11 KC-46 tankers, 12 F-16 fighters, one C-17 transport, and approximately 400 US crew members transited through on February 18-19 alone. Staging bases are running out of capacity

🔴🕘 Estimated timeline: The strike group reaches peak readiness by late February to early March 2026. The operational window opens in the first two weeks of March. The likely scenario is a 72-hour air campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Arak, Bushehr) and IRGC command centers — not a ground invasion, but a decapitation of the nuclear program

➡️ Trump's mention of 32,000 Iranian protest casualties is narrative preparation — framing the strike as "liberation" rather than aggression

⚡️🇺🇸✈️Boeing C-17 Modernization: $400M for a "Retired" Workhorse

The US Air Force awarded Boeing a $400+ million contract to fully modernize the C-17A Globemaster III cockpit — for an aircraft whose production ended in 2015. The USAF needs the C-17 flying until 2075. This is not a typo. An aircraft designed in the 1980s is being prepared for service into the 2070s. The 200 transport flights to the Middle East in one month are a better justification for this investment than any Pentagon report

🇮🇱 🇦🇪 #UAE - #Israel: Shin Bet Embedded in the Emirates

A leaked UAE Ministry of Interior document reveals a secret agreement embedding seven Shin Bet agents directly within the command centers of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and all seven emirates. Agents were issued Emirati identity cards for undercover operations. A joint Mossad-Shin Bet office was established at Expo 2020. Israeli "consultants" operate under the direct supervision of local police chiefs

This leak is either a deliberate signal from someone in Abu Dhabi seeking distance from Israel ahead of the Iran strike, or Iranian intelligence demonstrating awareness of Israeli-Gulf coordination. Either way, the message is clear: the Emirates are already inside the operation, whether they acknowledge it publicly or not

🇯🇵 🇩🇪 #Japan and #Germany have repeatedly urged their nationals working at US facilities in the Middle East to leave. MFAs across multiple countries have been issuing similar warnings for at least three weeks — routine noise until embassy evacuations begin, which marks the real countdown

⚠️As a reminder: in early February, #KSA, #UAE, #Qatar, #Kuwait, #Iraq, #Jordan, #Oman, #Azerbaijan, #Turkey, and #Pakistan officially or privately warned the United States that they would not allow their airspace, land, or waters to be used for aggression against Iran

#US vs #IRAN
"Nuclear news" March 17–20

EVENTS:
⚡️🇺🇸💵19 days of war with Iran have reportedly cost the US more than $25 billion.
The cost of the war against Iran far exceeds the expenses for the Iraq War. A few more weeks of fighting would be equivalent to a year of spending for Operation Iraqi Freedom.

🇮🇱 Israel continues to "cut out" Iran’s leadership.

☠️ Killed:
• Ali Larijani — Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the last professional negotiator
• Aziz Nasirzadeh — Minister of Defense
• Gholamreza Soleimani — head of Basij
• Esmail Khatib — head of intelligence

🇺🇸Trump:

We want to talk to them, and there is nobody to talk to...

❗️🇺🇸❌🇺🇸 Joe Kent resigned as director of the NCTC in protest over the war with Iran, explicitly saying the White House was deceived into war by Israel.

• The NCTC director is not a Democrat, not a liberal, not a pacifist. He is ultra‑right, 11 combat deployments, Gold Star husband, a Trump appointee.
When the person who sees all counterterrorism intelligence walks out slamming the door — that’s a "black mark."

⏺The FBI hastily opened a case against Kent on charges of "leaking classified information" (CBS).

⚡️🛡❌🇺🇸 Trump said most NATO allies do not want to participate in a military operation against Iran.

🇨🇳 #China is not going to bail out Trump — FT
Luke Gromen:

"If i wanted to end the Petrodollar & turbocharge Petroyuan, i would have a hard time coming up with a better plan than what the US has done in the past 3 weeks..."

OIL:
📈🌎🛢 Since the bombings began, oil prices have risen 50% — The Economist

⚡️🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia warns: by late April–early May Brent could spike to $180/barrel as transit through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen 97% — WSJ
⏺ Wood Mackenzie analysts: even $200 no longer looks impossible

➡️ On March 19 Brent futures hit $119/barrel but fell to $105–107 after the U.S. Treasury issued a general license for the sale of Russian crude and products loaded on tankers — OFAC

➡️ Historical high from July 2008 was $146.08

Current oil prices:
🇴🇲 Oman — $167 (yesterday $173),
🇦🇪 Dubai — $137
🇪🇺 European market — Brent $113; WTI $97
🔗 Zerohedge

⚠️ Axios: The Trump administration is developing a plan to occupy Kharg Island (90% of Iran’s oil).

⚡️🇺🇸 The U.S. is sending a second Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East — NBC News

➡️ 11th MEU composition:
• LHD USS Boxer;
• LSDs USS Comstock and USS Portland;
• 2,200 Marines with equipment.

Air component: F-35B, AH-1Z Viper, UH-1Y Venom, CH-53E Super Stallion, MV-22B Osprey.

Together with the already sent 31st MEU (USS Tripoli), the U.S. will have 5,000 Marines and 4,000 sailors in the region — not enough for a major ground campaign but enough for limited amphibious landings on coastal Iranian islands.

💰🇮🇷 FT: Iran has begun charging for safe passage through Hormuz. One company paid $2 million.

⚡️🇫🇷 #France is preparing a UN‑level mission to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
If Gulf and European states back a resolution, an international coalition to secure shipping will be formed.
➡️Macron clarified France will not take part in a forcible "opening" of Hormuz.

❗️🇨🇳 China’s Foreign Ministry called on all parties to stop military actions as soon as possible.

NUCLEAR THREAT:
🔴☢️🌎 WHO is preparing for a nuclear disaster — Politico

🇺🇸 NNSA has restarted the purification process for enriched uranium at the Y‑12 complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee — Knox

🇫🇷 French "Poker": French air force conducts second nuclear exercise of the year

⚡️🛡🇮🇶 NATO is withdrawing a contingent from Iraq — about 600 troops — for security reasons

⚡️🇺🇸 Trump called to pass the "SAVE AMERICA ACT"

🇯🇵🇺🇸 #Japan and US announced strategic investments of $73 billion in energy projects, including $40 billion in small modular reactors via Hitachi‑GE Vernova.
⁉️ What did Japan get in return?

#US vs #IRAN
Third phase of war

💰Monetization of the Strait of Hormuz
🇯🇵🇨🇳🇮🇷 #Japan agreed to pay Iran in yuan in exchange for passage of its ships through Hormuz
Other countries wishing their ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz will apparently also be forced to pay Iran in yuan

➡️ Iran has retained some mini-submarines operating in "free hunt" mode in the Hormuz Strait zone — Israel's Channel 9 citing British media (details)

❗️🇦🇪 #UAE MFA published a joint statement from 22 countries expressing readiness to "contribute to efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz":
Including Australia, Bahrain, UK, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Canada, Republic of Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, Finland, France, Czech Republic, Sweden, Estonia and Japan.


💵🇺🇸 US has spent over $27 billion on the military operation so far
First 6 days of conflict cost $11.3 billion, each subsequent day — about $1 billion. This estimate excludes some associated costs, including force deployment and equipment replacement

🇩🇪🇯🇵 #Germany and #Japan plan to conclude a new defense agreement
Defense Minister Pistorius proposed a "Reciprocal Access Agreement" for joint training, exercises and troop deployment


Trump trapped
🇺🇸 Trump faces the toughest decision of his presidency — whether to deploy hundreds or even thousands of American ground troops in Iran — CNN

➡️ Polymarket odds of US launching ground invasion before end of 2026 have risen to 57% — up more than 40% since early March
Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG), over 5,000 Marines and several thousand soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division are heading to the Middle East

➡️ However, according to Reuters/Ipsos poll, 59% of Americans disapprove of military action against Iran


#UK seizes initiative
⚡️🇬🇧🇨🇾 Keir Starmer declared the US can no longer use Akrotiri airbase in #Cyprus for strikes on Iran

Daily Mail: Nuclear submarine HMS Anson of the Royal Navy has arrived in the Arabian Sea with Tomahawk Block IV cruise missiles with range up to 1,600 km and Spearfish heavy torpedoes

🚢 📉 US shipbuilding in decline: today the US builds about three major cargo vessels per year, while China builds about 1,000
⚡️US Air Force continues demonstrative testing of AGM-181 Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) missile — a new supersonic nuclear-armed cruise missile — on B-52H Stratofortress bomber


Experts: US and Israeli positions increasingly diverging
➡️ Trump decided to start war with Iran under pressure from external allies such as Netanyahu and Rupert Murdoch — Bloomberg

🇹🇷 Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:

War may continue for another two-three weeks, Israel will try to drag it out by pressuring the US
The problem is not the lack of plans to end the war, but that Israel doesn't want peace

🇫🇷 French General Nicolas Richoux on Trump:

He shot himself in the foot. He wanted to invade a European Union country, Greenland, not long ago.
And now, his old friends whom he didn’t consult, whom he scorned, especially the British, telling them: 'We’ll remember this.'
He can go fuck himself

🇫🇮 Finnish President Alexander Stubb:

Previously the US consulted with its allies before [invading] Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, and also sought UN Security Council approval

⚡️🇺🇸 Trump is trying to figure out who actually makes decisions in Iran in search of possible peace negotiations — Axios

🇪🇬🇶🇦🇬🇧 In recent days there have been no direct contacts between the US and Iran, however #Egypt, #Qatar and #UK have been passing messages between the two sides

US wants Iran to commit to:

1. No missile program for 5 years

2. No uranium enrichment

3. Decommissioning of reactors at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow

4. Observer oversight of centrifuge use

5. Missile limit of 1,000

6. Cessation of funding for Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Hamas

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