#MSFT #stockmarket #stocktrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Microsoft Analysis: Earnings Beat Expectations
On 29 July 2026, Microsoft reported its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.74, comfortably ahead of analysts' expectations of $4.24. The company exceeded consensus forecasts for both revenue and its cloud business, reflecting continued strong demand for AI infrastructure. The earnings release came after months of pressure on the stock, driven by investor concerns over the scale of capital expenditure required to expand Microsoft's cloud and AI capabilities.
Technical Analysis of Microsoft
Since the beginning of June, the MSFT chart has developed a clear short-term downtrend. After peaking near $465, the stock declined sharply along a descending trendline before finding support around $350 on 25 June. An unusually large bullish trading volume was recorded during the rebound from this area.
Since then, the stock has entered a recovery phase and is now trading between the POC (Point of Control) at $389.5 and the upper boundary of the current market profile at $400.5. The $405 resistance level sits just above the profile boundary and could reinforce resistance in this area.
Below the current price, two nearby support levels stand out: the lower boundary of the profile at $373.5 and the support level at $367. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 50, 49 and 50, with all three values positioned in the middle of the neutral zone. Such a configuration is typically associated with a period of consolidation before the market develops its next directional move.
Summary
The near-term performance of Microsoft shares is likely to depend more on how investors reassess the company's recently reported operating results than on the reaction to individual technical levels. For now, the debate surrounding capital expenditure on AI infrastructure remains the dominant fundamental theme shaping market sentiment.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Microsoft Analysis: Earnings Beat Expectations
On 29 July 2026, Microsoft reported its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% year-on-year, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $4.74, comfortably ahead of analysts' expectations of $4.24. The company exceeded consensus forecasts for both revenue and its cloud business, reflecting continued strong demand for AI infrastructure. The earnings release came after months of pressure on the stock, driven by investor concerns over the scale of capital expenditure required to expand Microsoft's cloud and AI capabilities.
Technical Analysis of Microsoft
Since the beginning of June, the MSFT chart has developed a clear short-term downtrend. After peaking near $465, the stock declined sharply along a descending trendline before finding support around $350 on 25 June. An unusually large bullish trading volume was recorded during the rebound from this area.
Since then, the stock has entered a recovery phase and is now trading between the POC (Point of Control) at $389.5 and the upper boundary of the current market profile at $400.5. The $405 resistance level sits just above the profile boundary and could reinforce resistance in this area.
Below the current price, two nearby support levels stand out: the lower boundary of the profile at $373.5 and the support level at $367. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 50, 49 and 50, with all three values positioned in the middle of the neutral zone. Such a configuration is typically associated with a period of consolidation before the market develops its next directional move.
Summary
The near-term performance of Microsoft shares is likely to depend more on how investors reassess the company's recently reported operating results than on the reaction to individual technical levels. For now, the debate surrounding capital expenditure on AI infrastructure remains the dominant fundamental theme shaping market sentiment.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#GBPUSD #EURGBP #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Await Key Bank of England Decision
The pound strengthened following the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed did not provide the market with clear signals of an imminent shift towards rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Despite the Fed’s cautious tone, the dollar failed to gain fresh momentum, allowing the British currency to partially recover its recent losses.
Market attention is now almost entirely focused on the Bank of England meeting, as its decision is expected to be the main driver for sterling through the end of the week. Investors also do not expect a change in interest rates, but the key factors will be the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split, the accompanying statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Any signals regarding the timing of potential monetary policy easing could trigger notable volatility in the pound.
For the euro, today will also bring a number of important macroeconomic releases. Markets will focus on preliminary inflation and GDP data from Germany, as well as GDP and inflation figures from Spain. These reports will help investors assess the resilience of the eurozone economy and adjust expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s future actions. Stronger data could support the euro, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing.
GBP/USD
Following yesterday’s Fed meeting, GBP/USD moved towards the 1.3400 area. A rebound from the 1.3270 support level and a sharp daily rally allowed buyers to form a bullish engulfing pattern. Technical analysis of GBP/USD points to the possibility of further gains towards 1.3440–1.3480 if the 1.3270–1.3300 range becomes established as support. A decisive move below yesterday’s low could trigger a renewed decline towards 1.3180–1.3220.
Key events for GBP/USD:
▪️Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): Bank of England interest rate decision;
▪️Today at 14:30 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Await Key Bank of England Decision
The pound strengthened following the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed did not provide the market with clear signals of an imminent shift towards rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Despite the Fed’s cautious tone, the dollar failed to gain fresh momentum, allowing the British currency to partially recover its recent losses.
Market attention is now almost entirely focused on the Bank of England meeting, as its decision is expected to be the main driver for sterling through the end of the week. Investors also do not expect a change in interest rates, but the key factors will be the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split, the accompanying statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Any signals regarding the timing of potential monetary policy easing could trigger notable volatility in the pound.
For the euro, today will also bring a number of important macroeconomic releases. Markets will focus on preliminary inflation and GDP data from Germany, as well as GDP and inflation figures from Spain. These reports will help investors assess the resilience of the eurozone economy and adjust expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s future actions. Stronger data could support the euro, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing.
GBP/USD
Following yesterday’s Fed meeting, GBP/USD moved towards the 1.3400 area. A rebound from the 1.3270 support level and a sharp daily rally allowed buyers to form a bullish engulfing pattern. Technical analysis of GBP/USD points to the possibility of further gains towards 1.3440–1.3480 if the 1.3270–1.3300 range becomes established as support. A decisive move below yesterday’s low could trigger a renewed decline towards 1.3180–1.3220.
Key events for GBP/USD:
▪️Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): Bank of England interest rate decision;
▪️Today at 14:30 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.
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#EURGBP #tradingtips #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is showing signs of recovery after forming a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe. If market participants are disappointed by today’s Bank of England decision, the pair could extend its advance towards 0.8600–0.8620. The bullish scenario would be invalidated after a decisive break below the 0.8540–0.8560 support area.
Key events for EUR/GBP:
▪️Today at 08:30 (GMT+3): France GDP;
▪️Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany GDP;
▪️Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Overall, the near-term direction of sterling will depend primarily on the Bank of England’s decision, the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split and Andrew Bailey’s comments on the future outlook for interest rates. For the euro, inflation and GDP releases from the eurozone’s largest economies will remain important, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank’s next policy steps. With the market impact of the Fed meeting now fading, European economic data and signals from the Bank of England could become the main drivers of GBP/USD and EUR/GBP through the end of the week.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is showing signs of recovery after forming a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe. If market participants are disappointed by today’s Bank of England decision, the pair could extend its advance towards 0.8600–0.8620. The bullish scenario would be invalidated after a decisive break below the 0.8540–0.8560 support area.
Key events for EUR/GBP:
▪️Today at 08:30 (GMT+3): France GDP;
▪️Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany GDP;
▪️Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Overall, the near-term direction of sterling will depend primarily on the Bank of England’s decision, the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split and Andrew Bailey’s comments on the future outlook for interest rates. For the euro, inflation and GDP releases from the eurozone’s largest economies will remain important, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank’s next policy steps. With the market impact of the Fed meeting now fading, European economic data and signals from the Bank of England could become the main drivers of GBP/USD and EUR/GBP through the end of the week.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AMZN #stockmarket #stocktrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Amazon Analysis: Strong Earnings Coincide with a Breakout from the Correction
On 30 July, Amazon.com reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations. Revenue rose 20% year-on-year to $200.6 billion, compared with the consensus forecast of around $196.5 billion. The main growth driver was the AWS cloud business, where sales increased by 37% — the fastest growth rate in 18 quarters — while the segment's operating profit surged to $16.6 billion. Total operating profit climbed 43% to $27.5 billion. Net income reached $62.6 billion, or $5.75 per share, although a substantial portion came from a $53.4 billion non-operating gain related to the revaluation of Amazon's stake in Anthropic. Advertising revenue also increased by 26% year-on-year.
Amazon Technical Analysis
On the four-hour AMZN chart, a downtrend developed after the stock peaked near $278 in May. The decline towards $226 at the end of June was followed by a corrective recovery along an ascending trendline connecting higher lows until mid-July, when the price approached resistance around $258, where the red resistance level is currently located. A break below this trendline signalled that the correction had run out of momentum, after which the price returned to the current market profile range, settling between the POC zone at $244.5 and the lower profile boundary at $232.5. Below this area lies the green support level at $226.5.
Should the current rebound continue and the price break above the POC zone, it is likely to face two further obstacles: the upper profile boundary at $249 and the red resistance level at $258. It is also worth noting that the RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 46, 36 and 43. The indicator suggests that the slower moving average has yet to move below the parity zone, while the RSI has already recovered from oversold territory.
Summary
Strong earnings provide a fundamental catalyst for a continuation of the current rebound, although the RSI + MAs oscillator has yet to generate a clear signal. In the coming days, further guidance from management on AI infrastructure capital expenditure, along with the market's reaction to earnings reports from other technology giants, could determine the stock's next move.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Amazon Analysis: Strong Earnings Coincide with a Breakout from the Correction
On 30 July, Amazon.com reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations. Revenue rose 20% year-on-year to $200.6 billion, compared with the consensus forecast of around $196.5 billion. The main growth driver was the AWS cloud business, where sales increased by 37% — the fastest growth rate in 18 quarters — while the segment's operating profit surged to $16.6 billion. Total operating profit climbed 43% to $27.5 billion. Net income reached $62.6 billion, or $5.75 per share, although a substantial portion came from a $53.4 billion non-operating gain related to the revaluation of Amazon's stake in Anthropic. Advertising revenue also increased by 26% year-on-year.
Amazon Technical Analysis
On the four-hour AMZN chart, a downtrend developed after the stock peaked near $278 in May. The decline towards $226 at the end of June was followed by a corrective recovery along an ascending trendline connecting higher lows until mid-July, when the price approached resistance around $258, where the red resistance level is currently located. A break below this trendline signalled that the correction had run out of momentum, after which the price returned to the current market profile range, settling between the POC zone at $244.5 and the lower profile boundary at $232.5. Below this area lies the green support level at $226.5.
Should the current rebound continue and the price break above the POC zone, it is likely to face two further obstacles: the upper profile boundary at $249 and the red resistance level at $258. It is also worth noting that the RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 46, 36 and 43. The indicator suggests that the slower moving average has yet to move below the parity zone, while the RSI has already recovered from oversold territory.
Summary
Strong earnings provide a fundamental catalyst for a continuation of the current rebound, although the RSI + MAs oscillator has yet to generate a clear signal. In the coming days, further guidance from management on AI infrastructure capital expenditure, along with the market's reaction to earnings reports from other technology giants, could determine the stock's next move.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#NASDAQ #stockmarket #stocktrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Nasdaq 100: 48 Hours of Chaos, One Trendline Standing in the Way
Wall Street just lived through one of its wildest 48 hours of the year. On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three FOMC members broke ranks to demand a hike—an unusually hawkish dissent that sent the Dow plunging over 1,100 points, its worst session since April 2025. Treasury yields spiked, with the 30-year touching levels unseen since 2007, as renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil higher and reignited inflation fears. The Nasdaq 100 briefly slid into correction territory, down 11% from its June record high.
Then came the reversal. Thursday's blockbuster earnings from Microsoft, whose Azure cloud business surged, alongside a rebound in beaten-down semiconductor stocks, powered the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech Mini on FXOpen) to a 2.8% gain, snapping a six-day losing streak.
The whiplash captures the market's core dilemma perfectly: a Fed chair in Kevin Warsh determined to prove his inflation-fighting credentials, a Middle East conflict refusing to fade, and a tech sector whose AI-driven earnings power may be the only thing strong enough to override both.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart
As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) is currently testing the descending trendline that has guided its decline from late June's highs, with price also pressing against the 100-period EMA near 28,620, a confluence that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past several sessions. Adding weight to this setup, the RSI is showing a bullish divergence, printing higher lows even as price carved a fresh low in late July.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers finally break above both the descending trendline and the 100-period EMA, the divergence would gain real technical credibility, opening the path toward the 28,800-29,000 resistance zone and, beyond that, a retest of the 30,750 highs from June.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at this trendline-EMA confluence would invalidate the bullish divergence for now, sending price back toward the 27,720 area, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the March-June rally. A deeper break would expose the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements near 26,789 and 25,850, levels that previously acted as key support during the spring advance.
With price coiled right beneath a trendline it has yet to conquer, and the RSI quietly hinting at renewed strength underneath, the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) looks ready to answer the question markets have been asking all week: was this correction just noise, or the start of something bigger?
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100: 48 Hours of Chaos, One Trendline Standing in the Way
Wall Street just lived through one of its wildest 48 hours of the year. On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three FOMC members broke ranks to demand a hike—an unusually hawkish dissent that sent the Dow plunging over 1,100 points, its worst session since April 2025. Treasury yields spiked, with the 30-year touching levels unseen since 2007, as renewed US-Iran strikes pushed oil higher and reignited inflation fears. The Nasdaq 100 briefly slid into correction territory, down 11% from its June record high.
Then came the reversal. Thursday's blockbuster earnings from Microsoft, whose Azure cloud business surged, alongside a rebound in beaten-down semiconductor stocks, powered the Nasdaq Composite (US Tech Mini on FXOpen) to a 2.8% gain, snapping a six-day losing streak.
The whiplash captures the market's core dilemma perfectly: a Fed chair in Kevin Warsh determined to prove his inflation-fighting credentials, a Middle East conflict refusing to fade, and a tech sector whose AI-driven earnings power may be the only thing strong enough to override both.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart
As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) is currently testing the descending trendline that has guided its decline from late June's highs, with price also pressing against the 100-period EMA near 28,620, a confluence that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past several sessions. Adding weight to this setup, the RSI is showing a bullish divergence, printing higher lows even as price carved a fresh low in late July.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers finally break above both the descending trendline and the 100-period EMA, the divergence would gain real technical credibility, opening the path toward the 28,800-29,000 resistance zone and, beyond that, a retest of the 30,750 highs from June.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at this trendline-EMA confluence would invalidate the bullish divergence for now, sending price back toward the 27,720 area, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the March-June rally. A deeper break would expose the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements near 26,789 and 25,850, levels that previously acted as key support during the spring advance.
With price coiled right beneath a trendline it has yet to conquer, and the RSI quietly hinting at renewed strength underneath, the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) looks ready to answer the question markets have been asking all week: was this correction just noise, or the start of something bigger?
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#oilprices #brentoil #commodities #marketanalysis #MarketNews
Brent Analysis: Oil Retreats from $100 as Saudi Arabia Proposes Maritime Coalition Initiative
On 23 July 2026, Brent crude rose above $100 amid reports of attacks on tankers and infrastructure in the Red Sea area, as well as strong statements from Donald Trump towards Iran over threats to shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz. The move proved short-lived: on 30 July, Saudi Arabia proposed creating a maritime coalition to protect key shipping routes amid the ongoing confrontation between the US and Iran. According to CNBC data from 31 July, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed, although the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed attacks on vessels under US escort — claims that have not been confirmed by Western maritime authorities.
Technical Analysis of Brent Crude Oil
On the four-hour XBRUSD chart, the asset formed a short-term trend from the beginning of July, moving from around $71 towards the $102 area. The trendline was then broken, after which the current market profile was formed, within which the price is currently trading. The asset is now positioned between the POC (Point of Control) zone at $92.20 and the upper boundary of the profile at $94.60. A breakout above this boundary could open the way towards the red resistance level at $98.50.
If the price moves below the POC zone, the next area of interest would be the cluster of two important levels: the lower profile boundary at $86.80 and the green support level at $85.30. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 58, 51 and 51, with all oscillator values returning to the neutral zone after a period of elevated volatility. Trading volume remains relatively high, confirming continued market interest from participants.
Summary
Saudi Arabia’s initiative to create a maritime coalition could gradually reduce the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil if diplomatic efforts continue to make progress. However, unconfirmed reports of incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for increased volatility. The neutral positioning of the RSI + MAs indicators currently suggests that there is no clear directional momentum.
Start trading commodities with tight spreads*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Analysis: Oil Retreats from $100 as Saudi Arabia Proposes Maritime Coalition Initiative
On 23 July 2026, Brent crude rose above $100 amid reports of attacks on tankers and infrastructure in the Red Sea area, as well as strong statements from Donald Trump towards Iran over threats to shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz. The move proved short-lived: on 30 July, Saudi Arabia proposed creating a maritime coalition to protect key shipping routes amid the ongoing confrontation between the US and Iran. According to CNBC data from 31 July, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed, although the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed attacks on vessels under US escort — claims that have not been confirmed by Western maritime authorities.
Technical Analysis of Brent Crude Oil
On the four-hour XBRUSD chart, the asset formed a short-term trend from the beginning of July, moving from around $71 towards the $102 area. The trendline was then broken, after which the current market profile was formed, within which the price is currently trading. The asset is now positioned between the POC (Point of Control) zone at $92.20 and the upper boundary of the profile at $94.60. A breakout above this boundary could open the way towards the red resistance level at $98.50.
If the price moves below the POC zone, the next area of interest would be the cluster of two important levels: the lower profile boundary at $86.80 and the green support level at $85.30. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 58, 51 and 51, with all oscillator values returning to the neutral zone after a period of elevated volatility. Trading volume remains relatively high, confirming continued market interest from participants.
Summary
Saudi Arabia’s initiative to create a maritime coalition could gradually reduce the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil if diplomatic efforts continue to make progress. However, unconfirmed reports of incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for increased volatility. The neutral positioning of the RSI + MAs indicators currently suggests that there is no clear directional momentum.
Start trading commodities with tight spreads*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#XAUUSD #commodities #gold #MarketNews #goldprice
Gold Analysis: Is the Correction Over, or Just Catching Its Breath?
Gold has had a rough year. After hitting an all-time high near $5,602 in January, the metal has since dropped roughly 27% from that peak, weighed down by rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and cooling demand for safe-haven assets.
This week brought a fresh twist. Gold climbed back above $4,050 on Monday after President Trump signaled that peace talks with Iran would resume, following pressure from regional allies like Saudi Arabia to pause military strikes. The news pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation fears, but it also reduced some of the safe-haven demand that had been supporting gold.
Despite the sharp correction, most analysts still expect gold's long-term uptrend to eventually reassert itself. In the near term, though, all eyes are on Friday's US jobs report, the week's key catalyst: a weak print could revive rate-cut expectations and give gold fresh support, while a strong one could extend the current pullback.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD chart
As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold remains locked in a broader downtrend since January's record high, currently testing the descending trendline from below while holding just above the 3,900-4,000 support zone.
Bullish Scenario
Gold has already shown signs of life bouncing from the 3,900-4,000 support, and the RSI divergence lends some credibility to this reaction. Should price break decisively above the descending trendline, the next real test becomes the 4,400 resistance zone, where the 200-period EMA also converges—a level that has proven highly significant over recent months. A confirmed break above this confluence would mark a meaningful shift in gold's broader structure.
Bearish Scenario
Should gold instead reject the trendline once again, price risks getting trapped between resistance above and support below. In that scenario, Friday's NFP report looms as a potential catalyst: a strong print could tip the balance, breaking the 3,900-4,000 support and opening the path toward the next meaningful level, the former resistance-turned-support zone at 3,400-3,500.
With price squeezed between a stubborn trendline and a battle-tested support, and a major data release just days away, gold's next move could finally answer the question traders have been asking since January's peak: is the correction over, or just catching its breath?
Start trading commodities with tight spreads*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Gold Analysis: Is the Correction Over, or Just Catching Its Breath?
Gold has had a rough year. After hitting an all-time high near $5,602 in January, the metal has since dropped roughly 27% from that peak, weighed down by rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and cooling demand for safe-haven assets.
This week brought a fresh twist. Gold climbed back above $4,050 on Monday after President Trump signaled that peace talks with Iran would resume, following pressure from regional allies like Saudi Arabia to pause military strikes. The news pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation fears, but it also reduced some of the safe-haven demand that had been supporting gold.
Despite the sharp correction, most analysts still expect gold's long-term uptrend to eventually reassert itself. In the near term, though, all eyes are on Friday's US jobs report, the week's key catalyst: a weak print could revive rate-cut expectations and give gold fresh support, while a strong one could extend the current pullback.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD chart
As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold remains locked in a broader downtrend since January's record high, currently testing the descending trendline from below while holding just above the 3,900-4,000 support zone.
Bullish Scenario
Gold has already shown signs of life bouncing from the 3,900-4,000 support, and the RSI divergence lends some credibility to this reaction. Should price break decisively above the descending trendline, the next real test becomes the 4,400 resistance zone, where the 200-period EMA also converges—a level that has proven highly significant over recent months. A confirmed break above this confluence would mark a meaningful shift in gold's broader structure.
Bearish Scenario
Should gold instead reject the trendline once again, price risks getting trapped between resistance above and support below. In that scenario, Friday's NFP report looms as a potential catalyst: a strong print could tip the balance, breaking the 3,900-4,000 support and opening the path toward the next meaningful level, the former resistance-turned-support zone at 3,400-3,500.
With price squeezed between a stubborn trendline and a battle-tested support, and a major data release just days away, gold's next move could finally answer the question traders have been asking since January's peak: is the correction over, or just catching its breath?
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#NASDAQ #stockmarket #stocks #MarketNews #marketanalysis
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: De-escalation Around Iran Boosts Demand for Technology Stocks
The beginning of August brought renewed optimism to the US technology sector. President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran and expressed his intention to resume negotiations, prompting a sharp decline in oil prices. Investors interpreted the easing of geopolitical tensions as a signal that inflationary risks may also begin to moderate. Additional support for the market came from the Federal Reserve’s earlier decision on 29 July to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.5–3.75% range, although the decision was not unanimous. Together, these developments helped restore investors’ appetite for risk, particularly in large-cap technology stocks.
Technical Analysis of Nasdaq 100
Since mid-July, the Nasdaq 100 index (NDXm on FXOpen) had been moving within a short-term downtrend defined by a descending trendline, before falling towards the 27,100 area, marked by the green support zone. From there, the price reversed, broke above the descending trendline, and recovered roughly half of the previous decline. Following a brief period of consolidation, the current market profile was formed, with the index now trading above its upper boundary at 28,600. Above current levels lies the base of the previous trend at 29,200, marked on the chart as the red resistance level.
Should the current direction reverse, the index may encounter several important technical levels. The POC (Point of Control) at 28,400 represents the nearest area of highest trading activity over the analysed period. Below it are the lower boundary of the market profile at 27,750 and the green support level at 27,250, located near the trend low. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 64, 58 and 49. Although the oscillator suggests that the current move may continue, the slower moving average remains within the neutral zone, leaving the bullish signal unconfirmed.
Summary
The Nasdaq 100’s near-term direction is likely to depend heavily on developments surrounding negotiations with Iran. Any deterioration in the geopolitical situation could renew selling pressure on the index, while further diplomatic progress may create room for a move towards higher price levels.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: De-escalation Around Iran Boosts Demand for Technology Stocks
The beginning of August brought renewed optimism to the US technology sector. President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran and expressed his intention to resume negotiations, prompting a sharp decline in oil prices. Investors interpreted the easing of geopolitical tensions as a signal that inflationary risks may also begin to moderate. Additional support for the market came from the Federal Reserve’s earlier decision on 29 July to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.5–3.75% range, although the decision was not unanimous. Together, these developments helped restore investors’ appetite for risk, particularly in large-cap technology stocks.
Technical Analysis of Nasdaq 100
Since mid-July, the Nasdaq 100 index (NDXm on FXOpen) had been moving within a short-term downtrend defined by a descending trendline, before falling towards the 27,100 area, marked by the green support zone. From there, the price reversed, broke above the descending trendline, and recovered roughly half of the previous decline. Following a brief period of consolidation, the current market profile was formed, with the index now trading above its upper boundary at 28,600. Above current levels lies the base of the previous trend at 29,200, marked on the chart as the red resistance level.
Should the current direction reverse, the index may encounter several important technical levels. The POC (Point of Control) at 28,400 represents the nearest area of highest trading activity over the analysed period. Below it are the lower boundary of the market profile at 27,750 and the green support level at 27,250, located near the trend low. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 64, 58 and 49. Although the oscillator suggests that the current move may continue, the slower moving average remains within the neutral zone, leaving the bullish signal unconfirmed.
Summary
The Nasdaq 100’s near-term direction is likely to depend heavily on developments surrounding negotiations with Iran. Any deterioration in the geopolitical situation could renew selling pressure on the index, while further diplomatic progress may create room for a move towards higher price levels.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#GBPUSD #tradingtips #tradingforex #marketanalysis #MarketNews
GBP/USD: The Triangle That Could Define the Rest of 2026
The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government's pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.
The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed's decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.
With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD's next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since January's highs, with price now converging near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around 1.3427, exactly where the two trendlines meet. This narrowing structure suggests a decisive breakout may be approaching after months of range-bound trading.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers push through the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.3510, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 1.3594, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 1.3865 highs from January if fundamental momentum aligns.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would expose the 1.3200 support zone, with a more significant breakdown risking a retest of the 1.3155 low that anchored this entire triangle formation.
With price coiled right at the apex of this multi-month triangle, and both the Fed and incoming labor data serving as potential catalysts, GBP/USD looks primed for its next major directional move—will the pound extend its recent strength, or is the dollar poised for a comeback?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD: The Triangle That Could Define the Rest of 2026
The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government's pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.
The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed's decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.
With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD's next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since January's highs, with price now converging near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around 1.3427, exactly where the two trendlines meet. This narrowing structure suggests a decisive breakout may be approaching after months of range-bound trading.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers push through the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.3510, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 1.3594, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 1.3865 highs from January if fundamental momentum aligns.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would expose the 1.3200 support zone, with a more significant breakdown risking a retest of the 1.3155 low that anchored this entire triangle formation.
With price coiled right at the apex of this multi-month triangle, and both the Fed and incoming labor data serving as potential catalysts, GBP/USD looks primed for its next major directional move—will the pound extend its recent strength, or is the dollar poised for a comeback?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDNZD #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketNews
AUD/NZD: A Mixed Jobs Report Meets a Critical Chart Level
The Aussie and the Kiwi are telling two very different monetary policy stories right now, and the divergence is starting to show up clearly in the cross. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but the hawkish tone that once dominated has faded fast: Q2 inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.1%, prompting Goldman Sachs to abandon its call for one final hike this year. Markets now price next to no chance of an August move, with only roughly even odds of a hike by November.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is playing a different game entirely. Having already hiked to 2.50% in June, the central bank has kept its guidance firmly hawkish, and markets are now almost fully pricing a further 25bp increase in September. Wednesday's employment data added an interesting twist: employment change q/q beat expectations sharply at 0.5% against 0.1% forecast, yet the unemployment rate also rose to 5.6% from 5.4%, above forecasts—a genuinely mixed print that complicates the otherwise hawkish RBNZ narrative.
The result: a Reserve Bank stepping back from further tightening against one still leaning hawkish, though now facing a labor market sending conflicting signals of its own.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair broke above the 100-period EMA back in July and is now testing this level again, right where it converges with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.2011-1.2013. This confluence marks a critical juncture after weeks of steady decline.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break this EMA-Fibonacci confluence decisively, the path would open toward the 0.618 retracement near 1.2037, followed by the descending trendline, which itself converges with the 0.786 level around 1.2073. A break above this second confluence would leave room to retest the 1.2200-1.2250 resistance, the upper boundary of the broader range that has trapped price since April.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at the EMA-0.5 confluence would send price back down to retest the 1.1900-1.1950 support, the level that has held since March.. This is the real test: a confirmed break below it would open the door to a more sustained and decisive downtrend.
With price wedged right at this pivotal confluence, and the broader March-to-August range still very much intact, AUD/NZD looks ready to decide whether it's building toward a genuine breakout, or simply setting up for another rejection within its months-long range.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/NZD: A Mixed Jobs Report Meets a Critical Chart Level
The Aussie and the Kiwi are telling two very different monetary policy stories right now, and the divergence is starting to show up clearly in the cross. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but the hawkish tone that once dominated has faded fast: Q2 inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.1%, prompting Goldman Sachs to abandon its call for one final hike this year. Markets now price next to no chance of an August move, with only roughly even odds of a hike by November.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is playing a different game entirely. Having already hiked to 2.50% in June, the central bank has kept its guidance firmly hawkish, and markets are now almost fully pricing a further 25bp increase in September. Wednesday's employment data added an interesting twist: employment change q/q beat expectations sharply at 0.5% against 0.1% forecast, yet the unemployment rate also rose to 5.6% from 5.4%, above forecasts—a genuinely mixed print that complicates the otherwise hawkish RBNZ narrative.
The result: a Reserve Bank stepping back from further tightening against one still leaning hawkish, though now facing a labor market sending conflicting signals of its own.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair broke above the 100-period EMA back in July and is now testing this level again, right where it converges with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.2011-1.2013. This confluence marks a critical juncture after weeks of steady decline.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break this EMA-Fibonacci confluence decisively, the path would open toward the 0.618 retracement near 1.2037, followed by the descending trendline, which itself converges with the 0.786 level around 1.2073. A break above this second confluence would leave room to retest the 1.2200-1.2250 resistance, the upper boundary of the broader range that has trapped price since April.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at the EMA-0.5 confluence would send price back down to retest the 1.1900-1.1950 support, the level that has held since March.. This is the real test: a confirmed break below it would open the door to a more sustained and decisive downtrend.
With price wedged right at this pivotal confluence, and the broader March-to-August range still very much intact, AUD/NZD looks ready to decide whether it's building toward a genuine breakout, or simply setting up for another rejection within its months-long range.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#USDJPY #USDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
USD/JPY and USD/CAD Consolidate Ahead of ADP Employment Report
Following last week’s sharp decline, the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase against most major currencies. At the same time, some instruments, including USD/JPY, are showing a moderate recovery as markets await fresh macroeconomic signals. Today’s key event will be the release of the preliminary ADP private-sector employment report. Forecasts suggest that job growth will slow to 68,000 after 98,000 in the previous month. If the data comes in below expectations, pressure on the dollar could increase as markets price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Conversely, a stronger report could support the US currency ahead of the official US labour market data release.
Additional attention will be focused on US services sector activity indicators. Markets expect the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI to improve to 53.6 points, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is forecast to rise to 54.5. Strong readings could partly offset any weakness in the ADP report and confirm the resilience of the largest sector of the US economy. It is worth noting that market participants traditionally view the ADP report only as an early indicator ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls release. Although the trends in the two reports do not always align, today’s data could significantly influence short-term expectations regarding the health of the US labour market.
USD/JPY
Last week, following the Federal Reserve meeting, USD/JPY declined sharply, losing more than 500 pips over several trading sessions. At the beginning of the current week, after testing the key support level at 155.30, buyers managed to push the pair back towards 158.00, while forming a “doji” candlestick pattern, which may signal a weakening of the bearish momentum. If the price breaks above yesterday’s high, the corrective move could extend towards 158.70–159.40. Weaker US employment data could trigger a renewed downward move.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️Today at 15:15 (GMT+3): ADP change in US non-farm private employment;
▪️Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Services PMI;
▪️Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+3): US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
USD/JPY and USD/CAD Consolidate Ahead of ADP Employment Report
Following last week’s sharp decline, the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase against most major currencies. At the same time, some instruments, including USD/JPY, are showing a moderate recovery as markets await fresh macroeconomic signals. Today’s key event will be the release of the preliminary ADP private-sector employment report. Forecasts suggest that job growth will slow to 68,000 after 98,000 in the previous month. If the data comes in below expectations, pressure on the dollar could increase as markets price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Conversely, a stronger report could support the US currency ahead of the official US labour market data release.
Additional attention will be focused on US services sector activity indicators. Markets expect the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI to improve to 53.6 points, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is forecast to rise to 54.5. Strong readings could partly offset any weakness in the ADP report and confirm the resilience of the largest sector of the US economy. It is worth noting that market participants traditionally view the ADP report only as an early indicator ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls release. Although the trends in the two reports do not always align, today’s data could significantly influence short-term expectations regarding the health of the US labour market.
USD/JPY
Last week, following the Federal Reserve meeting, USD/JPY declined sharply, losing more than 500 pips over several trading sessions. At the beginning of the current week, after testing the key support level at 155.30, buyers managed to push the pair back towards 158.00, while forming a “doji” candlestick pattern, which may signal a weakening of the bearish momentum. If the price breaks above yesterday’s high, the corrective move could extend towards 158.70–159.40. Weaker US employment data could trigger a renewed downward move.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️Today at 15:15 (GMT+3): ADP change in US non-farm private employment;
▪️Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Services PMI;
▪️Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+3): US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
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#USDCAD #tradingforex #forex #MarketNews
USD/CAD
Last week, USD/CAD retested the key support level around 1.4000, forming a “bullish harami” pattern after the rebound. Technical analysis of USD/CAD suggests the potential for further recovery towards 1.4130–1.4170. Weaker US economic data, however, could trigger another test of the 1.4000 level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️Today at 23:05 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook;
▪️Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada Services PMI.
The main drivers for the US dollar today will be the preliminary ADP employment figures and US services sector activity data. If the releases confirm the resilience of the US economy, USD/JPY and USD/CAD could continue their recovery following the dollar’s recent correction. Weaker data, on the other hand, could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy, adding further pressure on the US currency and allowing sellers to regain control. However, investors are likely to draw more definitive conclusions about the labour market after the official Nonfarm Payrolls report is released later this week.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
Last week, USD/CAD retested the key support level around 1.4000, forming a “bullish harami” pattern after the rebound. Technical analysis of USD/CAD suggests the potential for further recovery towards 1.4130–1.4170. Weaker US economic data, however, could trigger another test of the 1.4000 level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️Today at 23:05 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook;
▪️Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada Services PMI.
The main drivers for the US dollar today will be the preliminary ADP employment figures and US services sector activity data. If the releases confirm the resilience of the US economy, USD/JPY and USD/CAD could continue their recovery following the dollar’s recent correction. Weaker data, on the other hand, could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy, adding further pressure on the US currency and allowing sellers to regain control. However, investors are likely to draw more definitive conclusions about the labour market after the official Nonfarm Payrolls report is released later this week.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURUSD #GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook
The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rallied strongly last week, breaking above the key resistance level at 1.1500. Since the start of this week, the pair has been trading sideways between 1.1500 and 1.1560 as investors await fresh macroeconomic data. Technical analysis suggests the bullish trend could extend towards 1.1600–1.1620 if the 1.1560 level becomes established as support. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1500 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Factory Orders;
▪️Today at 10:30 (GMT+3): Germany S&P Global Construction PMI;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims.
Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook
The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rallied strongly last week, breaking above the key resistance level at 1.1500. Since the start of this week, the pair has been trading sideways between 1.1500 and 1.1560 as investors await fresh macroeconomic data. Technical analysis suggests the bullish trend could extend towards 1.1600–1.1620 if the 1.1560 level becomes established as support. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1500 would weaken the bullish outlook.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Factory Orders;
▪️Today at 10:30 (GMT+3): Germany S&P Global Construction PMI;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims.
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#GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingforex #MarketNews
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is showing a similar pattern, consolidating between 1.3420 and 1.3480 after last week's sharp advance. A decisive break above 1.3480 could pave the way for a retest of the July high near 1.3560. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US economic data could push the pair back towards the 1.3350–1.3400 range.
Key events for GBP/USD:
▪️Today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Construction PMI;
▪️Today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate;
▪️Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US ADP Private Non-Farm Employment Change.
The official US Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the key event for currency markets this week. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage data will provide investors with a clearer picture of the strength of the US economy and help shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. If the figures confirm further signs of labour market cooling, the dollar could come under renewed pressure, allowing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to extend their recent gains. Stronger-than-expected data, however, could revive demand for the US dollar and trigger a correction in both European currencies.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is showing a similar pattern, consolidating between 1.3420 and 1.3480 after last week's sharp advance. A decisive break above 1.3480 could pave the way for a retest of the July high near 1.3560. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US economic data could push the pair back towards the 1.3350–1.3400 range.
Key events for GBP/USD:
▪️Today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Construction PMI;
▪️Today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate;
▪️Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US ADP Private Non-Farm Employment Change.
The official US Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the key event for currency markets this week. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage data will provide investors with a clearer picture of the strength of the US economy and help shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. If the figures confirm further signs of labour market cooling, the dollar could come under renewed pressure, allowing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to extend their recent gains. Stronger-than-expected data, however, could revive demand for the US dollar and trigger a correction in both European currencies.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#FTSE #marketanalysis #stockmarket #stocktrading #MarketNews
FTSE 100 Analysis: Strong BAE Systems Earnings Support the Index Rally Near Record Highs
On 30 July, BAE Systems released its first-half 2026 results: sales increased by 9% to £15.8 billion, underlying operating profit rose by 11% to £1.7 billion, and underlying earnings per share climbed 13% to 38.9 pence. The company upgraded its full-year guidance for sales, underlying operating profit and underlying EPS, highlighting a record order backlog of £84 billion following £16.4 billion in new contracts. On the same day, the FTSE 100 reached a new intraday high, supported by mining companies amid rising commodity prices, as well as industrial firms following strong earnings results. The move coincided with escalating tensions surrounding Iran and expectations for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.
Technical Analysis of FTSE 100
From the 21 July low near 10,450, the FTSE 100 index (UK100 on FXOpen) developed a steady upward trend along a trendline that guided the price towards the red resistance level around 11,000. The price then moved above the trendline and is currently consolidating between the boundaries of the current volume profile: the upper boundary is located at 10,950, while the lower boundary stands near 10,880, with the Point of Control (POC) at 10,910 in between. All three levels are positioned relatively close together, creating a concentrated area where the price may lack sufficient room for an extended consolidation phase within this profile.
The current market profile is surrounded by support and resistance levels on both sides: the red 11,000 level is positioned above and represents the peak of the short-term trend, while the green 11,805 level could limit further movement if the lower boundary of the profile is broken. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 50, 54 and 56 — all lines remain within the neutral zone and currently provide no clear directional preference.
Summary
Strong BAE Systems earnings provide additional fundamental support for the rally, but the technical picture is already showing signs of a pause — RSI + MAs have lost momentum, and the price has remained below the recent high. The next move will likely depend on whether upcoming earnings reports from companies within the index confirm the elevated market expectations.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE 100 Analysis: Strong BAE Systems Earnings Support the Index Rally Near Record Highs
On 30 July, BAE Systems released its first-half 2026 results: sales increased by 9% to £15.8 billion, underlying operating profit rose by 11% to £1.7 billion, and underlying earnings per share climbed 13% to 38.9 pence. The company upgraded its full-year guidance for sales, underlying operating profit and underlying EPS, highlighting a record order backlog of £84 billion following £16.4 billion in new contracts. On the same day, the FTSE 100 reached a new intraday high, supported by mining companies amid rising commodity prices, as well as industrial firms following strong earnings results. The move coincided with escalating tensions surrounding Iran and expectations for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision.
Technical Analysis of FTSE 100
From the 21 July low near 10,450, the FTSE 100 index (UK100 on FXOpen) developed a steady upward trend along a trendline that guided the price towards the red resistance level around 11,000. The price then moved above the trendline and is currently consolidating between the boundaries of the current volume profile: the upper boundary is located at 10,950, while the lower boundary stands near 10,880, with the Point of Control (POC) at 10,910 in between. All three levels are positioned relatively close together, creating a concentrated area where the price may lack sufficient room for an extended consolidation phase within this profile.
The current market profile is surrounded by support and resistance levels on both sides: the red 11,000 level is positioned above and represents the peak of the short-term trend, while the green 11,805 level could limit further movement if the lower boundary of the profile is broken. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 50, 54 and 56 — all lines remain within the neutral zone and currently provide no clear directional preference.
Summary
Strong BAE Systems earnings provide additional fundamental support for the rally, but the technical picture is already showing signs of a pause — RSI + MAs have lost momentum, and the price has remained below the recent high. The next move will likely depend on whether upcoming earnings reports from companies within the index confirm the elevated market expectations.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#DXY #stockmarket #USD #marketanalysis #MarketNews
US Dollar Index (DXY): Two Months of Consolidation, One NFP Away From a Breakout
The dollar heads into today's session with one of the most important catalysts of the summer on deck: the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due at 12:30 PM UTC. Economists expect around 95,000 jobs added, down from June's already weak 57,000 print, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%.
The backdrop makes this release particularly consequential. At its July meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone was notably hawkish: three policymakers pushed for a hike rather than any discussion of cuts. That stance has kept the dollar broadly supported, even as recent JOLTS data pointed to cooling labor demand and futures markets trimmed the odds of a September hike to around 59%, down from 67% just days earlier.
Today's numbers will likely decide which narrative wins out. A stronger-than-expected print, particularly alongside firm wage growth, would reinforce the Fed's hawkish resolve and could send the dollar testing higher levels. A weaker report, especially with downward revisions to prior months, would revive rate-cut expectations and put fresh pressure on the greenback heading into the rest of August.
Technical Analysis of the DXY
As the chart shows, the DXY has spent nearly two months consolidating after its 2026 recovery, currently squeezed between a descending trendline from late June's highs and a newly formed ascending trendline off early August's lows, with price also testing the confluence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 100.28.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 retracement near 100.53, where the 200-period EMA also sits, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 100.79, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 0.786 retracement near 101.16 and the 101.63 highs beyond.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 99.60 support would expose the 0.0 Fibonacci level near 99.44, invalidating the recent recovery attempt and opening the door to a deeper pullback within the broader consolidation range.
With today's NFP report landing right at this technical crossroads, where two converging trendlines meet a key Fibonacci confluence, the DXY looks poised for a decisive break—will the dollar finally resolve two months of consolidation, or extend the standoff into next week?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Two Months of Consolidation, One NFP Away From a Breakout
The dollar heads into today's session with one of the most important catalysts of the summer on deck: the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due at 12:30 PM UTC. Economists expect around 95,000 jobs added, down from June's already weak 57,000 print, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%.
The backdrop makes this release particularly consequential. At its July meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone was notably hawkish: three policymakers pushed for a hike rather than any discussion of cuts. That stance has kept the dollar broadly supported, even as recent JOLTS data pointed to cooling labor demand and futures markets trimmed the odds of a September hike to around 59%, down from 67% just days earlier.
Today's numbers will likely decide which narrative wins out. A stronger-than-expected print, particularly alongside firm wage growth, would reinforce the Fed's hawkish resolve and could send the dollar testing higher levels. A weaker report, especially with downward revisions to prior months, would revive rate-cut expectations and put fresh pressure on the greenback heading into the rest of August.
Technical Analysis of the DXY
As the chart shows, the DXY has spent nearly two months consolidating after its 2026 recovery, currently squeezed between a descending trendline from late June's highs and a newly formed ascending trendline off early August's lows, with price also testing the confluence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 100.28.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 retracement near 100.53, where the 200-period EMA also sits, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 100.79, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 0.786 retracement near 101.16 and the 101.63 highs beyond.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 99.60 support would expose the 0.0 Fibonacci level near 99.44, invalidating the recent recovery attempt and opening the door to a deeper pullback within the broader consolidation range.
With today's NFP report landing right at this technical crossroads, where two converging trendlines meet a key Fibonacci confluence, the DXY looks poised for a decisive break—will the dollar finally resolve two months of consolidation, or extend the standoff into next week?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #MarketNews #marketanalysis
GBP/USD Analysis: Weak US Labour Market Data Pushes the Pair Higher
The pair gained momentum following the release of the US labour market report for July 2026 on 7 August. Non-farm employment fell by 23,000 jobs, compared with a forecast for an increase of 80,000 jobs among economists surveyed by Reuters. Employment data for May and June were also revised downwards, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The dollar responded with broad-based weakness. Earlier, on 30 July, the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 3.75% by a six-to-three vote, with three members of the committee voting for a rate hike. The regulator’s decision also highlighted inflation risks associated with volatility in energy prices.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
After a sharp rise from around 1.3280 towards 1.3500 in late July, the pair entered a narrowing range between the upper and lower boundaries of the current profile at 1.3483 and 1.3440, respectively. The two boundaries gradually converged, forming a pattern resembling a contracting triangle. The green impulse candle subsequently broke above the pattern’s upper boundary, while the price is attempting to establish itself above both the trendline and the profile boundary. If the bullish scenario develops, the price could move towards the red resistance level at 1.3555.
If the current breakout from consolidation proves to be false and the price returns inside the profile, the POC at 1.3465 and the lower profile boundary at 1.3440 will regain their importance for market participants. Below these levels lies the green support area at 1.3420. The RSI + MAs indicator shows three readings of 61, 57 and 57. All three values are above the neutral zone, while the moving averages are coloured green. It is also worth noting that vertical volume has declined compared with the late-July impulse.
Summary
The attempt to break above the triangle’s upper boundary could open the way towards a test of the red resistance area at 1.3555, but the sustainability and potential of the move may also depend on the flow of further US economic data.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBP/USD Analysis: Weak US Labour Market Data Pushes the Pair Higher
The pair gained momentum following the release of the US labour market report for July 2026 on 7 August. Non-farm employment fell by 23,000 jobs, compared with a forecast for an increase of 80,000 jobs among economists surveyed by Reuters. Employment data for May and June were also revised downwards, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The dollar responded with broad-based weakness. Earlier, on 30 July, the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 3.75% by a six-to-three vote, with three members of the committee voting for a rate hike. The regulator’s decision also highlighted inflation risks associated with volatility in energy prices.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
After a sharp rise from around 1.3280 towards 1.3500 in late July, the pair entered a narrowing range between the upper and lower boundaries of the current profile at 1.3483 and 1.3440, respectively. The two boundaries gradually converged, forming a pattern resembling a contracting triangle. The green impulse candle subsequently broke above the pattern’s upper boundary, while the price is attempting to establish itself above both the trendline and the profile boundary. If the bullish scenario develops, the price could move towards the red resistance level at 1.3555.
If the current breakout from consolidation proves to be false and the price returns inside the profile, the POC at 1.3465 and the lower profile boundary at 1.3440 will regain their importance for market participants. Below these levels lies the green support area at 1.3420. The RSI + MAs indicator shows three readings of 61, 57 and 57. All three values are above the neutral zone, while the moving averages are coloured green. It is also worth noting that vertical volume has declined compared with the late-July impulse.
Summary
The attempt to break above the triangle’s upper boundary could open the way towards a test of the red resistance area at 1.3555, but the sustainability and potential of the move may also depend on the flow of further US economic data.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#USDJPY #marketanalysis #forextrading #tradingforex
USD/JPY: Was Intervention Enough to Change the Trend?
USD/JPY finds itself at the centre of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ¥164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ¥155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ¥158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.
The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed's own July dissents—three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold—keep US rates firmly in the driver's seat too.
With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY's next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo's rate decision, or Washington's next data-driven signal.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair collapsed sharply after the coordinated intervention, dropping from the 163.76 highs to a low near 155.21 before staging a steady recovery. Price is now testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 158.48, supported by an ascending trendline off the intervention low, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence as it prints higher lows even as price briefly retested the range.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers hold the ascending trendline and break decisively above the 0.382 retracement, the path would open toward the 0.5 level near 159.49, with a stronger move targeting the 0.618 retracement around 160.50, where deeper resistance likely awaits.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would invalidate the current recovery structure, exposing a retest of the intervention low near 155.21-156.00, with the RSI divergence losing credibility if price fails to hold this zone.
With price coiled right at the 0.382 confluence, and both the trendline and RSI hinting at renewed strength, USD/JPY looks set for a decisive move—will the recovery from intervention extend, or will Tokyo's defence prove only temporary?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/JPY: Was Intervention Enough to Change the Trend?
USD/JPY finds itself at the centre of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ¥164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ¥155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ¥158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.
The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed's own July dissents—three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold—keep US rates firmly in the driver's seat too.
With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY's next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo's rate decision, or Washington's next data-driven signal.
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair collapsed sharply after the coordinated intervention, dropping from the 163.76 highs to a low near 155.21 before staging a steady recovery. Price is now testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 158.48, supported by an ascending trendline off the intervention low, with the RSI showing a bullish divergence as it prints higher lows even as price briefly retested the range.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers hold the ascending trendline and break decisively above the 0.382 retracement, the path would open toward the 0.5 level near 159.49, with a stronger move targeting the 0.618 retracement around 160.50, where deeper resistance likely awaits.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would invalidate the current recovery structure, exposing a retest of the intervention low near 155.21-156.00, with the RSI divergence losing credibility if price fails to hold this zone.
With price coiled right at the 0.382 confluence, and both the trendline and RSI hinting at renewed strength, USD/JPY looks set for a decisive move—will the recovery from intervention extend, or will Tokyo's defence prove only temporary?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURAUD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketNews
EUR/AUD: Two Central Banks on Hold, One Triangle About to Break
Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June's inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.
The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB's own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.
The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair staged a strong rally from July's lows near 1.6243, a move that followed a bullish RSI divergence, where price carved a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. Since topping near 1.6500 in late July, price has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, with a descending trendline and an ascending trendline converging right around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone near 1.6342-1.6372.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and break above the descending one, the path would open toward the 0.382 retracement near 1.6402, with a stronger move potentially targeting a retest of the 1.6500 highs if momentum builds.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.618 retracement near 1.6341 would expose the 0.786 level near 1.6298, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 1.6243 low that anchored the entire July rally.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, and the RSI sitting in neutral territory after cooling from its earlier divergence, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive break—will the euro extend its late-July strength, or does the Aussie reclaim the upper hand?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/AUD: Two Central Banks on Hold, One Triangle About to Break
Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June's inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.
The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB's own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.
The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair staged a strong rally from July's lows near 1.6243, a move that followed a bullish RSI divergence, where price carved a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. Since topping near 1.6500 in late July, price has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, with a descending trendline and an ascending trendline converging right around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone near 1.6342-1.6372.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and break above the descending one, the path would open toward the 0.382 retracement near 1.6402, with a stronger move potentially targeting a retest of the 1.6500 highs if momentum builds.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.618 retracement near 1.6341 would expose the 0.786 level near 1.6298, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 1.6243 low that anchored the entire July rally.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, and the RSI sitting in neutral territory after cooling from its earlier divergence, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive break—will the euro extend its late-July strength, or does the Aussie reclaim the upper hand?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURUSD #GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Await a Fresh Impulse from Inflation Data
The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.
Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today's session.
EUR/USD
In recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been moving within a relatively narrow range of 1.1500–1.1580. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of another test of the lower boundary, as a Dark Cloud Cover pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If sellers manage to establish a position below 1.1500, the pair could resume its downward move towards 1.1430–1.1460. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US inflation data could push the price towards 1.1600–1.1620.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI);
▪️today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Await a Fresh Impulse from Inflation Data
The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.
Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today's session.
EUR/USD
In recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been moving within a relatively narrow range of 1.1500–1.1580. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of another test of the lower boundary, as a Dark Cloud Cover pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If sellers manage to establish a position below 1.1500, the pair could resume its downward move towards 1.1430–1.1460. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US inflation data could push the price towards 1.1600–1.1620.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI);
▪️today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);
▪️today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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