#USDCAD #USDJPY #forextrading #forex #MarketVolatility
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Equity Market Weakness and Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
The US dollar continues to hold firm near multi-year highs as sentiment across equity markets deteriorates and investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. The US economy remains resilient, while inflation risks continue to run elevated, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Against this backdrop, demand for the dollar is being supported both by attractive US asset yields and its status as a safe-haven currency.
An additional source of support for the greenback has come from the decline in stock markets, which has increased investor caution and encouraged capital flows into the dollar. Despite some easing in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and a correction in oil prices, expectations of a more hawkish Fed remain the key market driver. Interest-rate futures continue to reflect a high probability that restrictive policy will remain in place for an extended period, supporting the dollar against most major currencies.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to advance and is trading close to multi-year highs near 162.00. Pressure on the yen persists due to the wide interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan, as well as market doubts about the willingness of Japanese authorities to carry out further currency interventions. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the psychological 163.00–164.00 area.
At the same time, a spike in volatility and a sharp pullback towards 160.00–161.00 cannot be ruled out, as the pair is already trading within a zone of long-term resistance on higher timeframes.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Equity Market Weakness and Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
The US dollar continues to hold firm near multi-year highs as sentiment across equity markets deteriorates and investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. The US economy remains resilient, while inflation risks continue to run elevated, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Against this backdrop, demand for the dollar is being supported both by attractive US asset yields and its status as a safe-haven currency.
An additional source of support for the greenback has come from the decline in stock markets, which has increased investor caution and encouraged capital flows into the dollar. Despite some easing in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and a correction in oil prices, expectations of a more hawkish Fed remain the key market driver. Interest-rate futures continue to reflect a high probability that restrictive policy will remain in place for an extended period, supporting the dollar against most major currencies.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to advance and is trading close to multi-year highs near 162.00. Pressure on the yen persists due to the wide interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan, as well as market doubts about the willingness of Japanese authorities to carry out further currency interventions. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the psychological 163.00–164.00 area.
At the same time, a spike in volatility and a sharp pullback towards 160.00–161.00 cannot be ruled out, as the pair is already trading within a zone of long-term resistance on higher timeframes.
Key events for USD/JPY:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States.
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#USDCAD #forextrading #forex #MarketVolatility
USD/CAD
USD/CAD also remains in an uptrend and is approaching long-term resistance levels in the 1.4300–1.4350 area. The pair is being supported by US dollar strength and the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar amid lower oil prices and expectations of further divergence between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy.
A sustained move above 1.4300 could open the way for further gains towards 1.4350. However, a rejection from these levels and the formation of bearish reversal patterns could trigger a corrective decline towards the 1.4140–1.4200 region.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Average Weekly Earnings in Canada;
▪️Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman;
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.
The US dollar remains the primary beneficiary of the current market environment. Equity market weakness, expectations of a prolonged period of restrictive Fed policy and the relative weakness of competing currencies continue to support the greenback.
At the same time, both USD/JPY and USD/CAD are approaching significant long-term resistance levels. As a result, further price action is likely to depend on whether upcoming macroeconomic data can confirm the resilience of the US economy and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone in forthcoming commentary.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD also remains in an uptrend and is approaching long-term resistance levels in the 1.4300–1.4350 area. The pair is being supported by US dollar strength and the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar amid lower oil prices and expectations of further divergence between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy.
A sustained move above 1.4300 could open the way for further gains towards 1.4350. However, a rejection from these levels and the formation of bearish reversal patterns could trigger a corrective decline towards the 1.4140–1.4200 region.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Average Weekly Earnings in Canada;
▪️Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman;
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.
The US dollar remains the primary beneficiary of the current market environment. Equity market weakness, expectations of a prolonged period of restrictive Fed policy and the relative weakness of competing currencies continue to support the greenback.
At the same time, both USD/JPY and USD/CAD are approaching significant long-term resistance levels. As a result, further price action is likely to depend on whether upcoming macroeconomic data can confirm the resilience of the US economy and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone in forthcoming commentary.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDCAD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
AUD/CAD: Pair Remains Range-Bound Amid Interest Rate Divergence
The key macroeconomic factor for AUD/CAD remains the divergence in monetary policy between the two central banks. After three consecutive rate hikes since the beginning of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, citing persistent inflationary pressure and signs of slowing economic growth. The RBA stressed that inflation remains above its target range and that it is in no rush to begin easing policy. By contrast, the Bank of Canada has now kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Economic activity remains subdued, inflation has risen mainly due to higher energy prices, while core inflation has eased to 2.1%. The 210-basis-point interest rate differential formally supports the Australian dollar, although the RBA's more restrictive policy cycle continues to weigh on domestic demand and limits further gains in AUD.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, AUD/CAD continues to trade within a broad sideways range, bounded by green support near 0.9745 and red resistance around 0.9960. During the first half of June, a local bullish trend developed within the range; however, in the latter part of the month, the price broke below the trendline and fell beneath the lower boundary of the current market profile at 0.9838. The POC zone is concentrated between 0.9917 and 0.9920 and could act as resistance should the market reverse higher.
Given the close proximity of the POC zone, the upper boundary of the profile at 0.9942, and the resistance level itself, this cluster may attract increased selling interest. Current horizontal volume remains moderate, suggesting the absence of a clear market bias. RSI + MAs shows readings of 34, 33, 38. The RSI has already entered oversold territory, while the moving averages, although coloured red, remain broadly horizontal.
Key Takeaways
The pair continues to trade within its established range, lacking a catalyst for a decisive breakout. The RSI has moved out of oversold territory, while the moving averages, although still red, have lost their directional bias. Further price action will largely depend on how the market reassesses expectations for the RBA's policy path amid signs of slowing growth in the Australian economy.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/CAD: Pair Remains Range-Bound Amid Interest Rate Divergence
The key macroeconomic factor for AUD/CAD remains the divergence in monetary policy between the two central banks. After three consecutive rate hikes since the beginning of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, citing persistent inflationary pressure and signs of slowing economic growth. The RBA stressed that inflation remains above its target range and that it is in no rush to begin easing policy. By contrast, the Bank of Canada has now kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Economic activity remains subdued, inflation has risen mainly due to higher energy prices, while core inflation has eased to 2.1%. The 210-basis-point interest rate differential formally supports the Australian dollar, although the RBA's more restrictive policy cycle continues to weigh on domestic demand and limits further gains in AUD.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, AUD/CAD continues to trade within a broad sideways range, bounded by green support near 0.9745 and red resistance around 0.9960. During the first half of June, a local bullish trend developed within the range; however, in the latter part of the month, the price broke below the trendline and fell beneath the lower boundary of the current market profile at 0.9838. The POC zone is concentrated between 0.9917 and 0.9920 and could act as resistance should the market reverse higher.
Given the close proximity of the POC zone, the upper boundary of the profile at 0.9942, and the resistance level itself, this cluster may attract increased selling interest. Current horizontal volume remains moderate, suggesting the absence of a clear market bias. RSI + MAs shows readings of 34, 33, 38. The RSI has already entered oversold territory, while the moving averages, although coloured red, remain broadly horizontal.
Key Takeaways
The pair continues to trade within its established range, lacking a catalyst for a decisive breakout. The RSI has moved out of oversold territory, while the moving averages, although still red, have lost their directional bias. Further price action will largely depend on how the market reassesses expectations for the RBA's policy path amid signs of slowing growth in the Australian economy.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #MarketNews #MarketVolatility
AUD/USD: Will the RBA Be Able to Keep Its Currency Strong?
As the chart shows, AUD/USD has entered a distinctly bearish phase in recent weeks, reflecting the broader consolidation — and in some cases outright weakness — that the US dollar has begun imposing across most major currency pairs.
Fundamental Analysis
The Reserve Bank of Australia concluded its June meeting by holding the cash rate steady at 4.35%, opting to monitor the effects of the three consecutive hikes already delivered since the start of the year. The board acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened and that the economy is showing early signs of slowing, while maintaining a vigilant stance on inflation, which remains above target.
In theory, a pause after a tightening sequence — with a cash rate at 4.35%, the highest in the G10 — is a structurally supportive signal for the Australian dollar, as elevated rate differentials tend to attract flows toward AUD-denominated assets. However, markets had already fully priced in this outcome, stripping the decision of any surprise. AUD/USD has consequently failed to post any meaningful bullish impulse, sliding toward almost three-month lows near 0.6890, weighed down by renewed US dollar strength on growing Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Adding further complexity to the outlook, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to weigh on global risk sentiment, acting as an additional headwind for a currency that markets have long treated as a barometer of global risk appetite.
Technical Analysis
The most representative benchmark for the Australian dollar's momentum, AUD/USD seems to have already shifted his path. Following a prolonged period of broad greenback strength, the pair has gradually developed a bearish structure over recent weeks.
→ Bullish scenario: a key support zone sits in the 0.6880–0.6850 area. Should this level hold, it could restore some of the strength lost in recent weeks and bring the pair back to test the resistance between 0.6980 and 0.7000 — a threshold that will be decisive for the next directional move. A sustained recovery would also require a more relaxed geopolitical backdrop, as risk sentiment continues to cap AUD's upside potential.
→ Bearish scenario: should support fail to hold — or should the pair test the descending trendline in play and reject it, confirming the prevailing downtrend — AUD/USD could revisit levels last seen at the start of the year, with the 0.6700–0.6600 zone as the next significant area of interest.
With a more relaxed geopolitical environment and a hawkish central bank behind it, will the Australian dollar manage to reclaim its strength on the forex stage?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/USD: Will the RBA Be Able to Keep Its Currency Strong?
As the chart shows, AUD/USD has entered a distinctly bearish phase in recent weeks, reflecting the broader consolidation — and in some cases outright weakness — that the US dollar has begun imposing across most major currency pairs.
Fundamental Analysis
The Reserve Bank of Australia concluded its June meeting by holding the cash rate steady at 4.35%, opting to monitor the effects of the three consecutive hikes already delivered since the start of the year. The board acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened and that the economy is showing early signs of slowing, while maintaining a vigilant stance on inflation, which remains above target.
In theory, a pause after a tightening sequence — with a cash rate at 4.35%, the highest in the G10 — is a structurally supportive signal for the Australian dollar, as elevated rate differentials tend to attract flows toward AUD-denominated assets. However, markets had already fully priced in this outcome, stripping the decision of any surprise. AUD/USD has consequently failed to post any meaningful bullish impulse, sliding toward almost three-month lows near 0.6890, weighed down by renewed US dollar strength on growing Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Adding further complexity to the outlook, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to weigh on global risk sentiment, acting as an additional headwind for a currency that markets have long treated as a barometer of global risk appetite.
Technical Analysis
The most representative benchmark for the Australian dollar's momentum, AUD/USD seems to have already shifted his path. Following a prolonged period of broad greenback strength, the pair has gradually developed a bearish structure over recent weeks.
→ Bullish scenario: a key support zone sits in the 0.6880–0.6850 area. Should this level hold, it could restore some of the strength lost in recent weeks and bring the pair back to test the resistance between 0.6980 and 0.7000 — a threshold that will be decisive for the next directional move. A sustained recovery would also require a more relaxed geopolitical backdrop, as risk sentiment continues to cap AUD's upside potential.
→ Bearish scenario: should support fail to hold — or should the pair test the descending trendline in play and reject it, confirming the prevailing downtrend — AUD/USD could revisit levels last seen at the start of the year, with the 0.6700–0.6600 zone as the next significant area of interest.
With a more relaxed geopolitical environment and a hawkish central bank behind it, will the Australian dollar manage to reclaim its strength on the forex stage?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#nasdaq #stockmarket #stocktrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
Nasdaq-100: Price Concentrates Within the Market Profile Zone
Last week was one of the worst for US technology stocks since the beginning of 2026, with the index losing around 4.6% under the influence of two opposing factors. Firstly, the market continued to reassess the pace of returns on AI infrastructure investment — concerns that spending is outpacing actual returns triggered a sell-off in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling nearly 8% over the week. Secondly, the US-Iran conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend: Tehran claimed responsibility for attacks on commercial vessels, while the US responded with air strikes. By Monday morning, tensions had eased somewhat as both sides announced a temporary halt to hostilities and agreed to hold talks in Doha on Tuesday. Against this backdrop, Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 1.1%.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, the Nasdaq-100 (NDXm on FXOpen) has been trading within a sideways range since May, bounded by support near 28,600 and resistance around 30,700 — a range that formed following the June peak. After reaching that peak, the index experienced a sharp decline on 9 June, accompanied by exceptionally high trading volume. As a result of buyers defending the local lows, the price has since concentrated near the centre of the current range.
At present, the price is holding above the POC zone at 29,440–29,460, which may be viewed by market participants as the key point of attraction within the range. The price is approaching intermediate resistance at the upper boundary of the profile at 29,950, above which lies the red resistance level. RSI + MAs shows readings of 55, 43 and 45 — the oscillator remains above both moving averages, although the moving averages have yet to confirm a potential reversal and remain near the lower boundary of the neutral zone.
Key Takeaways
News of a pause in the US-Iran conflict supported the Nasdaq-100 at the market open, although concerns surrounding AI-related spending remain unresolved and were the primary driver of price action throughout June. The POC zone continues to serve as the key reference point for the balance between supply and demand: this is where the largest concentration of horizontal volume is located, and holding above this area could indicate that the market is preparing to continue its move towards the upper part of the range.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq-100: Price Concentrates Within the Market Profile Zone
Last week was one of the worst for US technology stocks since the beginning of 2026, with the index losing around 4.6% under the influence of two opposing factors. Firstly, the market continued to reassess the pace of returns on AI infrastructure investment — concerns that spending is outpacing actual returns triggered a sell-off in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling nearly 8% over the week. Secondly, the US-Iran conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend: Tehran claimed responsibility for attacks on commercial vessels, while the US responded with air strikes. By Monday morning, tensions had eased somewhat as both sides announced a temporary halt to hostilities and agreed to hold talks in Doha on Tuesday. Against this backdrop, Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 1.1%.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, the Nasdaq-100 (NDXm on FXOpen) has been trading within a sideways range since May, bounded by support near 28,600 and resistance around 30,700 — a range that formed following the June peak. After reaching that peak, the index experienced a sharp decline on 9 June, accompanied by exceptionally high trading volume. As a result of buyers defending the local lows, the price has since concentrated near the centre of the current range.
At present, the price is holding above the POC zone at 29,440–29,460, which may be viewed by market participants as the key point of attraction within the range. The price is approaching intermediate resistance at the upper boundary of the profile at 29,950, above which lies the red resistance level. RSI + MAs shows readings of 55, 43 and 45 — the oscillator remains above both moving averages, although the moving averages have yet to confirm a potential reversal and remain near the lower boundary of the neutral zone.
Key Takeaways
News of a pause in the US-Iran conflict supported the Nasdaq-100 at the market open, although concerns surrounding AI-related spending remain unresolved and were the primary driver of price action throughout June. The POC zone continues to serve as the key reference point for the balance between supply and demand: this is where the largest concentration of horizontal volume is located, and holding above this area could indicate that the market is preparing to continue its move towards the upper part of the range.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#GBPUSD #forextrading #tradingtips #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
European Currencies Enter Consolidation Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data
Following the US dollar's notable strength last week, European currencies have entered a period of consolidation. Investors and market participants have temporarily reduced trading activity ahead of a series of key macroeconomic releases from the euro area, the UK and the US, which could determine the next direction for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. At the same time, markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, as easing geopolitical tensions have somewhat reduced demand for safe-haven assets, allowing investors to shift their focus back to economic fundamentals.
Investor sentiment has also been supported by reports suggesting that the US and Iran may be close to reaching an agreement to halt mutual strikes and resume negotiations. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies and contributed to greater stability across financial markets. Nevertheless, ongoing disagreements over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting statements from Iranian officials indicate that geopolitical risks have not yet fully subsided.
EUR/USD
Following a test of the March low, a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern formed on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis suggests that EUR/USD is trading within a sideways range between 1.1340 and 1.1430. Price action around these boundaries, together with the incoming macroeconomic data, should provide further clues regarding the pair's next directional move.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️Today at 09:45 (GMT+3): France CPI.
▪️Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany CPI.
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US JOLTS Job Openings.
European Currencies Enter Consolidation Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Data
Following the US dollar's notable strength last week, European currencies have entered a period of consolidation. Investors and market participants have temporarily reduced trading activity ahead of a series of key macroeconomic releases from the euro area, the UK and the US, which could determine the next direction for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. At the same time, markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, as easing geopolitical tensions have somewhat reduced demand for safe-haven assets, allowing investors to shift their focus back to economic fundamentals.
Investor sentiment has also been supported by reports suggesting that the US and Iran may be close to reaching an agreement to halt mutual strikes and resume negotiations. The restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies and contributed to greater stability across financial markets. Nevertheless, ongoing disagreements over the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting statements from Iranian officials indicate that geopolitical risks have not yet fully subsided.
EUR/USD
Following a test of the March low, a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern formed on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis suggests that EUR/USD is trading within a sideways range between 1.1340 and 1.1430. Price action around these boundaries, together with the incoming macroeconomic data, should provide further clues regarding the pair's next directional move.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️Today at 09:45 (GMT+3): France CPI.
▪️Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany CPI.
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US JOLTS Job Openings.
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#USDCAD #MarketVolatility #forextrading
USD/CAD
USD/CAD buyers failed to break resistance at 1.4250. After an unsuccessful attempt to hold above this level, buying pressure eased and the pair moved back below 1.4200. The nearest key support is located at 1.4160. If the pair settles below this level in upcoming sessions, a deeper corrective decline may begin. At the same time, a firm break above 1.4250 could trigger a renewed upward move.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 16:00 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks;
▪️Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️Today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator.
Overall, ahead of the ADP report, the dollar is likely to maintain mixed price action near recent highs. If labour market data confirms resilience in the US economy, expectations of prolonged Fed tightening may strengthen, supporting further USD gains. Conversely, weaker data could trigger profit-taking and lead to a corrective move ahead of Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls release.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD buyers failed to break resistance at 1.4250. After an unsuccessful attempt to hold above this level, buying pressure eased and the pair moved back below 1.4200. The nearest key support is located at 1.4160. If the pair settles below this level in upcoming sessions, a deeper corrective decline may begin. At the same time, a firm break above 1.4250 could trigger a renewed upward move.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today at 16:00 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks;
▪️Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
▪️Today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator.
Overall, ahead of the ADP report, the dollar is likely to maintain mixed price action near recent highs. If labour market data confirms resilience in the US economy, expectations of prolonged Fed tightening may strengthen, supporting further USD gains. Conversely, weaker data could trigger profit-taking and lead to a corrective move ahead of Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls release.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURGBP #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
EUR/GBP: BoE Caution Versus ECB Determination
Against the backdrop of a weak UK economy and inflation above target, the Bank of England paused on 18 June, leaving the base rate unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, despite internal disagreements among committee members over the need for a rate hike. The contrast with the European Central Bank’s actions was notable: on 11 June, the ECB raised interest rates in response to a surge in eurozone inflation driven by higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. As a result, the monetary policy paths of London and Frankfurt temporarily diverged, with market attention now shifting to two upcoming meetings: the ECB on 23 July and the Bank of England on 30 July.
Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP has been forming a bearish structure since November last year. After peaking around 0.8860, the pair moved into a broad trading range, and in February a descending triangle began to take shape. The price is currently testing the triangle's lower boundary.
Immediately below the triangle's lower boundary lies support at 0.8600, while slightly above it is the lower boundary of the current volume profile at 0.8622. This cluster of three technical levels could help keep the pair within the triangle, whereas a downside break may trigger increased market activity.
Above this area is the Point of Control (POC) zone at 0.8647–0.8650, where the bulk of trading volume for the first half of the year is concentrated. If the price breaks above this zone, it could move on to test the triangle's upper boundary. Should buying pressure overcome the descending resistance line, the upper boundary of the volume profile at 0.8703 and the resistance level at 0.8730 may act as the next barriers.
The RSI and MAs indicators currently stand at 41, 46 and 45, respectively. The RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, while the MAs, although approaching the lower boundary of the neutral zone, remain positively aligned.
Summary
The combination of the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged and the ECB's recent rate hike creates a backdrop in which the technical reaction around 0.8600 or the POC zone could become a key factor in determining the next directional move for EUR/GBP.
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EUR/GBP: BoE Caution Versus ECB Determination
Against the backdrop of a weak UK economy and inflation above target, the Bank of England paused on 18 June, leaving the base rate unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, despite internal disagreements among committee members over the need for a rate hike. The contrast with the European Central Bank’s actions was notable: on 11 June, the ECB raised interest rates in response to a surge in eurozone inflation driven by higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. As a result, the monetary policy paths of London and Frankfurt temporarily diverged, with market attention now shifting to two upcoming meetings: the ECB on 23 July and the Bank of England on 30 July.
Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP has been forming a bearish structure since November last year. After peaking around 0.8860, the pair moved into a broad trading range, and in February a descending triangle began to take shape. The price is currently testing the triangle's lower boundary.
Immediately below the triangle's lower boundary lies support at 0.8600, while slightly above it is the lower boundary of the current volume profile at 0.8622. This cluster of three technical levels could help keep the pair within the triangle, whereas a downside break may trigger increased market activity.
Above this area is the Point of Control (POC) zone at 0.8647–0.8650, where the bulk of trading volume for the first half of the year is concentrated. If the price breaks above this zone, it could move on to test the triangle's upper boundary. Should buying pressure overcome the descending resistance line, the upper boundary of the volume profile at 0.8703 and the resistance level at 0.8730 may act as the next barriers.
The RSI and MAs indicators currently stand at 41, 46 and 45, respectively. The RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, while the MAs, although approaching the lower boundary of the neutral zone, remain positively aligned.
Summary
The combination of the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged and the ECB's recent rate hike creates a backdrop in which the technical reaction around 0.8600 or the POC zone could become a key factor in determining the next directional move for EUR/GBP.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#FTSE #stocktrading #stockmarket #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
FTSE 100: Attempting a Breakout from the Triangle
On 30 June, Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled the Defence Investment Plan, which includes a £15 billion increase in defence spending as part of a nearly £300 billion four-year budget. The market reacted quickly: on 1 July, shares of Babcock, BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce gained between 1.1% and 5.2%, providing support for the FTSE 100 during the session. Offsetting this strength, healthcare and energy stocks came under pressure, with AstraZeneca and GSK falling 1.7% and 2.5%, while Shell and BP lost more than 2% as oil prices declined. As a result, the index closed the day 0.2% lower. Over a longer-term horizon, investors remain focused on the Bank of England's meeting on 30 July. The central bank has kept the base rate at 3.75%, while inflation risks remain elevated amid energy price dynamics and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the FTSE 100 (UK100 on FXOpen) has formed a symmetrical triangle, with price fluctuations narrowing between the February high and the March low. In recent sessions, the index has attempted to break above the pattern, but the move has so far been capped by the upper boundary of the current market profile at 10,520, making it too early to confirm a breakout. The key resistance level is located around 10,700, while major support lies near 9,900.
Should the index decline from current levels, the nearest support could come from the POC zone at 10,340 and the lower boundary of the market profile at 10,160. It is worth noting that trading volume remains firm, suggesting the current range may continue to develop. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 53, 53 and 51. All three values remain in neutral territory, confirming the current lack of directional conviction.
Summary
The narrowing price range within the symmetrical triangle points to declining volatility in the index amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is coinciding with expectations ahead of the Bank of England's upcoming meeting. The POC zone remains a key reference point within the current market structure.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE 100: Attempting a Breakout from the Triangle
On 30 June, Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled the Defence Investment Plan, which includes a £15 billion increase in defence spending as part of a nearly £300 billion four-year budget. The market reacted quickly: on 1 July, shares of Babcock, BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce gained between 1.1% and 5.2%, providing support for the FTSE 100 during the session. Offsetting this strength, healthcare and energy stocks came under pressure, with AstraZeneca and GSK falling 1.7% and 2.5%, while Shell and BP lost more than 2% as oil prices declined. As a result, the index closed the day 0.2% lower. Over a longer-term horizon, investors remain focused on the Bank of England's meeting on 30 July. The central bank has kept the base rate at 3.75%, while inflation risks remain elevated amid energy price dynamics and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the FTSE 100 (UK100 on FXOpen) has formed a symmetrical triangle, with price fluctuations narrowing between the February high and the March low. In recent sessions, the index has attempted to break above the pattern, but the move has so far been capped by the upper boundary of the current market profile at 10,520, making it too early to confirm a breakout. The key resistance level is located around 10,700, while major support lies near 9,900.
Should the index decline from current levels, the nearest support could come from the POC zone at 10,340 and the lower boundary of the market profile at 10,160. It is worth noting that trading volume remains firm, suggesting the current range may continue to develop. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 53, 53 and 51. All three values remain in neutral territory, confirming the current lack of directional conviction.
Summary
The narrowing price range within the symmetrical triangle points to declining volatility in the index amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is coinciding with expectations ahead of the Bank of England's upcoming meeting. The POC zone remains a key reference point within the current market structure.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDUSD #NZDUSD #forextrading #MarketVolatility #marketanalysis
The Dollar Awaits the Week’s Key Report: AUD/USD and NZD/USD at Crucial Technical Levels
Following mixed performance by the US dollar earlier this week, investors are now fully focused on the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Thursday rather than Friday. The schedule has been brought forward as US financial markets will be closed on Friday to mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Today's report is expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and set the direction for the US dollar through the remainder of the week.
Market participants will closely watch the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and initial jobless claims, all of which will be released alongside the headline payrolls data. Following weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures, investors will be looking for confirmation that the US labour market remains resilient. Strong data could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, supporting the US dollar, while weaker figures may trigger profit-taking on long USD positions.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD found support at 0.6860 at the start of the week, forming a bullish engulfing pattern after rebounding from this level. Technical analysis suggests the pair could advance towards 0.6980–0.7000 if 0.6930 turns into support. A break below 0.6860 could pave the way for a decline towards 0.6800–0.6830.
Key events for AUD/USD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Nonfarm Payrolls;
▪️Tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI;
▪️Tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Services PMI.
The Dollar Awaits the Week’s Key Report: AUD/USD and NZD/USD at Crucial Technical Levels
Following mixed performance by the US dollar earlier this week, investors are now fully focused on the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Thursday rather than Friday. The schedule has been brought forward as US financial markets will be closed on Friday to mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Today's report is expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and set the direction for the US dollar through the remainder of the week.
Market participants will closely watch the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and initial jobless claims, all of which will be released alongside the headline payrolls data. Following weaker-than-expected ADP employment figures, investors will be looking for confirmation that the US labour market remains resilient. Strong data could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, supporting the US dollar, while weaker figures may trigger profit-taking on long USD positions.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD found support at 0.6860 at the start of the week, forming a bullish engulfing pattern after rebounding from this level. Technical analysis suggests the pair could advance towards 0.6980–0.7000 if 0.6930 turns into support. A break below 0.6860 could pave the way for a decline towards 0.6800–0.6830.
Key events for AUD/USD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Nonfarm Payrolls;
▪️Tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI;
▪️Tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Services PMI.
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NZD/USD
NZD/USD is showing a similar technical picture. After falling to 0.5630, buyers formed a V-shaped reversal pattern, which could support further gains. A break below the base of this formation may lead to a decline towards the 0.5570–0.5600 area.
Key events for NZD/USD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Average Hourly Earnings;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims;
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Factory Orders.
Overall, today's Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the week's key event for the currency market. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage data are expected to determine market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Until the figures are released, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are likely to remain in consolidation near key technical levels, while volatility could increase sharply once the data is published.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD is showing a similar technical picture. After falling to 0.5630, buyers formed a V-shaped reversal pattern, which could support further gains. A break below the base of this formation may lead to a decline towards the 0.5570–0.5600 area.
Key events for NZD/USD:
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Average Hourly Earnings;
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims;
▪️Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Factory Orders.
Overall, today's Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the week's key event for the currency market. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage data are expected to determine market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Until the figures are released, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are likely to remain in consolidation near key technical levels, while volatility could increase sharply once the data is published.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#SP500 #stockmarket #stocktrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
S&P 500: Index Narrows Its Range as the Labour Market Cools
The broad US market index, the S&P 500, has entered July against a backdrop of mixed signals from the labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on 2 July showed that just 57,000 jobs were added in June, well below market expectations, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Following the release, markets scaled back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, although the possibility of an October increase remains. At the same time, the current 10% global tariff is due to expire at the end of July, and markets are gradually pricing in uncertainty surrounding future trade policy decisions.
Technical Outlook
On the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 (SPXm on FXOpen) remains in a consolidation phase following the uptrend that began on 31 March. After peaking near 7,600, the index declined to around 7,250 before forming a symmetrical triangle, with the descending upper trendline and the ascending lower trendline gradually converging. Since the beginning of July, the price has remained above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 7,460, repeatedly testing the triangle's descending trendline but failing to break above it. Resistance is located around 7,580.
The narrowing range has been accompanied by declining volume, with the latest wave of the triangle noticeably quieter than the previous one, a typical feature of a maturing consolidation pattern. The highest concentration of horizontal volume (POC) is located near 7,394, while the lower boundary of the current profile sits around 7,300. Should the index move lower, these areas could provide support before any attempt to break below the ascending side of the triangle and potentially reach the 7,260 support level. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 59, 57 and 55. Although all three values remain above the neutral zone, they do not yet indicate a clear directional bias.
Summary
The POC zone remains the key reference point if the rejection from the triangle boundary develops into a broader decline. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs indicator continues to hold above neutral without showing a strong trend. Looking ahead, tariff-related uncertainty may become the more significant driver for the index over the coming weeks, as the expiry of the current 10% global tariff at the end of July could trigger a shift in market sentiment.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500: Index Narrows Its Range as the Labour Market Cools
The broad US market index, the S&P 500, has entered July against a backdrop of mixed signals from the labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on 2 July showed that just 57,000 jobs were added in June, well below market expectations, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Following the release, markets scaled back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, although the possibility of an October increase remains. At the same time, the current 10% global tariff is due to expire at the end of July, and markets are gradually pricing in uncertainty surrounding future trade policy decisions.
Technical Outlook
On the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 (SPXm on FXOpen) remains in a consolidation phase following the uptrend that began on 31 March. After peaking near 7,600, the index declined to around 7,250 before forming a symmetrical triangle, with the descending upper trendline and the ascending lower trendline gradually converging. Since the beginning of July, the price has remained above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 7,460, repeatedly testing the triangle's descending trendline but failing to break above it. Resistance is located around 7,580.
The narrowing range has been accompanied by declining volume, with the latest wave of the triangle noticeably quieter than the previous one, a typical feature of a maturing consolidation pattern. The highest concentration of horizontal volume (POC) is located near 7,394, while the lower boundary of the current profile sits around 7,300. Should the index move lower, these areas could provide support before any attempt to break below the ascending side of the triangle and potentially reach the 7,260 support level. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 59, 57 and 55. Although all three values remain above the neutral zone, they do not yet indicate a clear directional bias.
Summary
The POC zone remains the key reference point if the rejection from the triangle boundary develops into a broader decline. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs indicator continues to hold above neutral without showing a strong trend. Looking ahead, tariff-related uncertainty may become the more significant driver for the index over the coming weeks, as the expiry of the current 10% global tariff at the end of July could trigger a shift in market sentiment.
Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads*. Learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#NZDCHF #tradingtips #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
NZD/CHF Analysis: Which Currency Breaks the Consolidation First?
NZD/CHF remains locked in a tight range as traders await the next monetary policy catalyst.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand heads into Wednesday's meeting on shaky ground. After May's 3-3 split was resolved by a casting vote, the committee still lifted its rate path sharply, eyeing a 3.28% terminal rate by 2029. But the oil slide following the US-Iran truce has cut hike odds from over 80% to around 66-70%, splitting major banks between a hold and a further move.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank holds firm at 0% for a fourth straight meeting. Switzerland's challenge mirrors New Zealand's in reverse: subdued inflation rather than overheating, leaving little room—or need—for tightening. The franc's strength stems more from so-called safe-haven flows than rate differentials.
The result: NZDCHF caught between short-term RBNZ uncertainty and near-static Swiss policy, with direction hinging on Wednesday's decision.
Technical Analysis of NZD/CHF
NZD/CHF remains locked in a broader consolidation on higher timeframes, trapped between resistance at 0.4660-0.4690 and support at 0.4540-0.4560. Price is now compressing into a tighter triangle just below the 100-period EMA, which continues to cap upside as dynamic resistance.
Bullish Scenario
Fundamentally, a hawkish RBNZ surprise on Wednesday—hiking despite the oil-driven pullback in tightening expectations—would give the kiwi a strong tailwind. Technically, buyers first need to break the descending trendline capping price since late May, already rejected on several attempts. Once cleared, the decisive test becomes the 0.4660-0.4690 resistance zone. A genuine breakout would likely require both a strong NZD fundamental catalyst and confirming technical momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a dovish hold—as several major banks now expect—could reignite downside pressure. Technically, sellers first need to break the ascending trendline price has leaned on in recent sessions, then push through the more significant 0.4540-0.4560 support. Notably, the 100-period EMA continues to act as reliable dynamic resistance, keeping price capped beneath it and reinforcing the bearish structure until proven otherwise.
Two central banks, two opposite stories: RBNZ still weighing when to tighten, SNB content to sit still. Wednesday's decision could finally break this narrowing range — will the kiwi's rate case win out, or does the franc's quiet resilience hold firm?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NZD/CHF Analysis: Which Currency Breaks the Consolidation First?
NZD/CHF remains locked in a tight range as traders await the next monetary policy catalyst.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand heads into Wednesday's meeting on shaky ground. After May's 3-3 split was resolved by a casting vote, the committee still lifted its rate path sharply, eyeing a 3.28% terminal rate by 2029. But the oil slide following the US-Iran truce has cut hike odds from over 80% to around 66-70%, splitting major banks between a hold and a further move.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank holds firm at 0% for a fourth straight meeting. Switzerland's challenge mirrors New Zealand's in reverse: subdued inflation rather than overheating, leaving little room—or need—for tightening. The franc's strength stems more from so-called safe-haven flows than rate differentials.
The result: NZDCHF caught between short-term RBNZ uncertainty and near-static Swiss policy, with direction hinging on Wednesday's decision.
Technical Analysis of NZD/CHF
NZD/CHF remains locked in a broader consolidation on higher timeframes, trapped between resistance at 0.4660-0.4690 and support at 0.4540-0.4560. Price is now compressing into a tighter triangle just below the 100-period EMA, which continues to cap upside as dynamic resistance.
Bullish Scenario
Fundamentally, a hawkish RBNZ surprise on Wednesday—hiking despite the oil-driven pullback in tightening expectations—would give the kiwi a strong tailwind. Technically, buyers first need to break the descending trendline capping price since late May, already rejected on several attempts. Once cleared, the decisive test becomes the 0.4660-0.4690 resistance zone. A genuine breakout would likely require both a strong NZD fundamental catalyst and confirming technical momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a dovish hold—as several major banks now expect—could reignite downside pressure. Technically, sellers first need to break the ascending trendline price has leaned on in recent sessions, then push through the more significant 0.4540-0.4560 support. Notably, the 100-period EMA continues to act as reliable dynamic resistance, keeping price capped beneath it and reinforcing the bearish structure until proven otherwise.
Two central banks, two opposite stories: RBNZ still weighing when to tighten, SNB content to sit still. Wednesday's decision could finally break this narrowing range — will the kiwi's rate case win out, or does the franc's quiet resilience hold firm?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#USDCAD #forextrading #forex #MarketVolatility
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to trade sideways within the 1.4140–1.4250 range, suggesting the market is building momentum for a potential breakout. A sustained move above 1.4250 would open the door for further gains towards 1.4300–1.4400. Conversely, a break below 1.4140 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 1.4020–1.4080 region.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today, 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
▪️Tomorrow, 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
▪️Tomorrow, 17:00 (GMT+3): US Existing Home Sales
The US dollar remains in a holding pattern ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes, which could become the key catalyst for its next move. If the document confirms that Fed officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and continue to favour a hawkish policy stance, the dollar could receive renewed support. On the other hand, a more cautious assessment of the economy and the monetary policy outlook may encourage profit-taking on long dollar positions and lead to a broader corrective move.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD continues to trade sideways within the 1.4140–1.4250 range, suggesting the market is building momentum for a potential breakout. A sustained move above 1.4250 would open the door for further gains towards 1.4300–1.4400. Conversely, a break below 1.4140 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 1.4020–1.4080 region.
Key events for USD/CAD:
▪️Today, 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
▪️Tomorrow, 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
▪️Tomorrow, 17:00 (GMT+3): US Existing Home Sales
The US dollar remains in a holding pattern ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes, which could become the key catalyst for its next move. If the document confirms that Fed officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and continue to favour a hawkish policy stance, the dollar could receive renewed support. On the other hand, a more cautious assessment of the economy and the monetary policy outlook may encourage profit-taking on long dollar positions and lead to a broader corrective move.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#USDCAD #forextrading #MarketVolatility #marketanalysis
USD/CAD: One Trendline Away From Deciding the Next Move
After several strongly positive weeks, USD/CAD has stalled over the past few sessions, entering a phase of uncertainty.
On the dollar side, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a firm tone, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and pushing back against political pressure to cut rates, while sticky PCE inflation near 4% keeps hike odds alive for September. Yet June payrolls came in softer and speculative USD positioning looks stretched, raising doubts on how much further the rally can extend. Markets will also watch upcoming US CPI and PPI releases closely, as either gauge could reinforce the Fed hike case or, if softer, cap dollar strength.
The loonie's story is similarly mixed. Canada's June jobs report beat expectations, reducing the odds of a BoC cut, yet the currency remains capped by falling oil prices, subdued inflation, and unresolved CUSMA trade uncertainty. Two currencies face both genuine support and headwinds, leaving USD/CAD hostage to this week's BoC decision and incoming US data—a backdrop that aligns well with what the chart itself is showing.
USD/CAD Technical analysis
As the 4H chart shows, USD/CAD has traded within a well-defined ascending channel since May's lows, and is now consolidating just below recent swing highs. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from that low to the July high offers a useful reference for the levels ahead.
Bullish Scenario
As long as price holds above the ascending trendline and defends the former resistance, now turned support, in the 1.4100 area, the broader uptrend structure remains firmly intact, and this pause looks far more like healthy consolidation than an early reversal signal. A confirmed bounce off the trendline, followed by a decisive push back above the recent swing high near the 1.4250 area, would validate continued bullish control and open the way for USD/CAD to extend its rally into fresh highs for the move, keeping the dollar's medium-term strength against the loonie firmly in place.
Bearish Scenario
A clean, sustained break below the ascending trendline would mark the first real technical warning sign, shifting near-term momentum decisively lower. In that case, the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels would become the first meaningful support tests, coinciding with the psychological 1.3900-1.4000 range. Losing these levels could expose a deeper slide towards the 0.618 retracement—an area that would confirm a genuine correction of the entire May-to-July rally rather than a simple pullback, and would put the pair's medium-term bullish structure into serious question.
With price sitting right on the ascending trendline, the coming sessions could prove decisive in determining where USD/CAD heads next.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD: One Trendline Away From Deciding the Next Move
After several strongly positive weeks, USD/CAD has stalled over the past few sessions, entering a phase of uncertainty.
On the dollar side, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a firm tone, reaffirming the 2% inflation target and pushing back against political pressure to cut rates, while sticky PCE inflation near 4% keeps hike odds alive for September. Yet June payrolls came in softer and speculative USD positioning looks stretched, raising doubts on how much further the rally can extend. Markets will also watch upcoming US CPI and PPI releases closely, as either gauge could reinforce the Fed hike case or, if softer, cap dollar strength.
The loonie's story is similarly mixed. Canada's June jobs report beat expectations, reducing the odds of a BoC cut, yet the currency remains capped by falling oil prices, subdued inflation, and unresolved CUSMA trade uncertainty. Two currencies face both genuine support and headwinds, leaving USD/CAD hostage to this week's BoC decision and incoming US data—a backdrop that aligns well with what the chart itself is showing.
USD/CAD Technical analysis
As the 4H chart shows, USD/CAD has traded within a well-defined ascending channel since May's lows, and is now consolidating just below recent swing highs. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from that low to the July high offers a useful reference for the levels ahead.
Bullish Scenario
As long as price holds above the ascending trendline and defends the former resistance, now turned support, in the 1.4100 area, the broader uptrend structure remains firmly intact, and this pause looks far more like healthy consolidation than an early reversal signal. A confirmed bounce off the trendline, followed by a decisive push back above the recent swing high near the 1.4250 area, would validate continued bullish control and open the way for USD/CAD to extend its rally into fresh highs for the move, keeping the dollar's medium-term strength against the loonie firmly in place.
Bearish Scenario
A clean, sustained break below the ascending trendline would mark the first real technical warning sign, shifting near-term momentum decisively lower. In that case, the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels would become the first meaningful support tests, coinciding with the psychological 1.3900-1.4000 range. Losing these levels could expose a deeper slide towards the 0.618 retracement—an area that would confirm a genuine correction of the entire May-to-July rally rather than a simple pullback, and would put the pair's medium-term bullish structure into serious question.
With price sitting right on the ascending trendline, the coming sessions could prove decisive in determining where USD/CAD heads next.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#EURGBP #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
EUR/GBP: Trendline Support or Breakdown to New Lows?
EUR/GBP has slid to its weakest level in a year, as the two currencies continue to follow increasingly divergent paths. The ECB's June hike—its first since 2023—was meant to signal renewed hawkishness, but the very next inflation print undercut that narrative: price growth cooled from 3.2% to 2.8%, enough for markets to now assign an 88% probability that policymakers will simply hold steady at their July 23 meeting. In other words, the euro's tightening story may already be running out of road.
The pound, by contrast, is benefiting from a rare double tailwind. Domestically, much of the political uncertainty that had weighed on sterling appears to be fading as investors look past recent leadership turmoil, while falling mortgage rates and a sharp drop in diesel prices are easing cost-of-living pressure at home. On the policy side, traders are increasingly convinced the Bank of England still has room to hike before year-end, with odds now sitting near 76%—a stark contrast to the ECB's apparent pause.
Put simply, the euro's hawkish window looks to be closing, while the pound is gaining traction on two fronts at once. That divergence is exactly what's driving EUR/GBP toward these lows—and it's worth asking how much further it can run.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
As the H4 chart shows, prices spent months trading lower from the April highs. In mid-June, the pair broke above the descending trendline. Since then, that same trendline has flipped into support, and price now appears to be testing it again from above.
Bullish Scenario
Adding weight to this reading is a bullish RSI divergence: while price printed a fresh low in early July, the RSI itself formed a higher low, hinting at fading downside momentum beneath the surface. If buyers step in and defend the reclaimed trendline along with the 0.8500 psychological zone, this divergence could gain real technical credibility. It would open the door for a corrective bounce with scope to extend meaningfully higher towards the former support, now resistance, near the 0.8600 zone. There, price could face an important test. A break above this level could open the way towards the 0.8680–0.8700 zone, a historic equilibrium area for the pair.
Bearish Scenario
However, if sellers manage to push back through this trendline, decisively flipping it back into resistance, the bullish divergence would quickly lose much of its relevance and credibility. In that case, the focus would shift immediately to the psychological 0.8500 support. A confirmed break below it could signal that the broader downtrend remains firmly intact, likely triggering a fresh leg lower and exposing the pair to new multi-month lows last seen over a year ago.
With price balanced right on this reclaimed trendline, and momentum quietly diverging from price, EUR/GBP's next move could prove decisive either way.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EUR/GBP: Trendline Support or Breakdown to New Lows?
EUR/GBP has slid to its weakest level in a year, as the two currencies continue to follow increasingly divergent paths. The ECB's June hike—its first since 2023—was meant to signal renewed hawkishness, but the very next inflation print undercut that narrative: price growth cooled from 3.2% to 2.8%, enough for markets to now assign an 88% probability that policymakers will simply hold steady at their July 23 meeting. In other words, the euro's tightening story may already be running out of road.
The pound, by contrast, is benefiting from a rare double tailwind. Domestically, much of the political uncertainty that had weighed on sterling appears to be fading as investors look past recent leadership turmoil, while falling mortgage rates and a sharp drop in diesel prices are easing cost-of-living pressure at home. On the policy side, traders are increasingly convinced the Bank of England still has room to hike before year-end, with odds now sitting near 76%—a stark contrast to the ECB's apparent pause.
Put simply, the euro's hawkish window looks to be closing, while the pound is gaining traction on two fronts at once. That divergence is exactly what's driving EUR/GBP toward these lows—and it's worth asking how much further it can run.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
As the H4 chart shows, prices spent months trading lower from the April highs. In mid-June, the pair broke above the descending trendline. Since then, that same trendline has flipped into support, and price now appears to be testing it again from above.
Bullish Scenario
Adding weight to this reading is a bullish RSI divergence: while price printed a fresh low in early July, the RSI itself formed a higher low, hinting at fading downside momentum beneath the surface. If buyers step in and defend the reclaimed trendline along with the 0.8500 psychological zone, this divergence could gain real technical credibility. It would open the door for a corrective bounce with scope to extend meaningfully higher towards the former support, now resistance, near the 0.8600 zone. There, price could face an important test. A break above this level could open the way towards the 0.8680–0.8700 zone, a historic equilibrium area for the pair.
Bearish Scenario
However, if sellers manage to push back through this trendline, decisively flipping it back into resistance, the bullish divergence would quickly lose much of its relevance and credibility. In that case, the focus would shift immediately to the psychological 0.8500 support. A confirmed break below it could signal that the broader downtrend remains firmly intact, likely triggering a fresh leg lower and exposing the pair to new multi-month lows last seen over a year ago.
With price balanced right on this reclaimed trendline, and momentum quietly diverging from price, EUR/GBP's next move could prove decisive either way.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDUSD #USDCAD #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
AUD/USD and USD/CAD React to Softer US Inflation
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada's policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
▪️Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI)
▪️Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
AUD/USD and USD/CAD React to Softer US Inflation
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened after US inflation data came in weaker than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, below the 3.8% forecast, while core inflation eased to 2.6% versus expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, while core CPI was unchanged. The moderation in inflationary pressure increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative policy stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting both the Australian and Canadian dollars against the greenback.
However, despite the weaker US dollar, the next move in USD/CAD will largely depend on the Bank of Canada's policy decision. Later today, the central bank will announce its interest rate decision, publish its updated Monetary Policy Report, and hold a press conference with the Governor. If policymakers maintain a cautiously hawkish tone on inflation, the Canadian dollar could receive additional support. Conversely, a more dovish message may limit CAD gains despite the broader weakness in the US dollar.
Market participants will also focus on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide further insight into inflation trends following the softer CPI report. In addition, US crude oil inventory data could influence USD/CAD, as oil prices traditionally have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair continues to develop the bullish engulfing reversal pattern. Yesterday, buyers managed to test the key resistance level around 0.7000. If the pair secures a sustained break above this level, the rally could extend towards the 0.7080–0.7130 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a move below 0.6900.
Key events for AUD/USD:
▪️Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US MBA Mortgage Market Index
▪️Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI)
▪️Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
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#EURUSD #GBPUSD #forextrading #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
European Currencies Strengthen Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Releases
EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to recover moderately following the recent weakening of the US dollar. European currencies have been supported by expectations that US inflationary pressures will continue to ease after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, reinforcing market hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. However, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited amid persistent geopolitical tensions. The United States continues to carry out strikes against targets in Iran, supporting demand for defensive assets and periodically boosting the US dollar.
Today, traders will closely monitor a series of important economic releases from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States, which could determine the next direction for the major currency pairs.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD continues to develop after a bullish engulfing reversal pattern while attempting to establish itself above the key resistance level at 1.1460. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the 1.1540–1.1580 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a decisive move below 1.1370.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️11:40 (GMT+3): Spain 10-year government bond auction;
▪️15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Retail Sales;
▪️15:30 (GMT+3): US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
European Currencies Strengthen Ahead of Key Macroeconomic Releases
EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to recover moderately following the recent weakening of the US dollar. European currencies have been supported by expectations that US inflationary pressures will continue to ease after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, reinforcing market hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. However, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited amid persistent geopolitical tensions. The United States continues to carry out strikes against targets in Iran, supporting demand for defensive assets and periodically boosting the US dollar.
Today, traders will closely monitor a series of important economic releases from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States, which could determine the next direction for the major currency pairs.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD continues to develop after a bullish engulfing reversal pattern while attempting to establish itself above the key resistance level at 1.1460. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the 1.1540–1.1580 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a decisive move below 1.1370.
Key events for EUR/USD:
▪️11:40 (GMT+3): Spain 10-year government bond auction;
▪️15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Retail Sales;
▪️15:30 (GMT+3): US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
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#USDJPY #forextrading #forex #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
USD/JPY: Battling at the Top of the Triangle
On 3 July, Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated that the Ministry of Finance remains in close contact with US authorities regarding developments in USD/JPY as the yen traded near its weakest level in almost 40 years. Similar verbal warnings have become increasingly common whenever the pair approaches the 162.00 area, although no direct intervention has been announced so far.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected US inflation data added pressure to the dollar. On 14 July, June's Consumer Price Index came in below forecasts, significantly reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting and pushing US Treasury yields lower. The combination of increasingly cautious rhetoric from Japanese officials and softer US inflation expectations may keep USD/JPY range-bound, preventing buyers from establishing a sustained break above its multi-decade highs.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY advanced steadily throughout June, reaching a peak near 162.80 on 1 July. A sharp reversal followed, with the pair dropping rapidly to the 160.50 area, where the green support zone is currently located. The decline coincided with market speculation about a possible currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.
After rebounding from the 3 July low, the pair began forming a triangle pattern. Price is now testing the upper boundary of the formation, although the attempted upside breakout is currently being capped by the upper edge of the current volume profile at 162.45. Just above this level lies the red resistance zone at 162.70.
The Point of Control (POC) is located around 162.08 and could become a key magnet if the pair moves back towards the lower part of the range, where two additional important technical levels are visible: the lower boundary of the volume profile at 161.45 and the green support zone at 160.50.
Volume behaviour also deserves attention. The break above the triangle's upper boundary was not supported by strong bullish volume, indicating limited buying conviction and increasing the risk that the breakout could soon reverse. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs oscillator stands at 54, 52 and 52 respectively, with all three readings remaining firmly in neutral territory, reinforcing the current lack of directional conviction.
Key Takeaways
USD/JPY is testing the upper boundary of its current market structure while momentum indicators remain neutral. The lack of bullish volume at the breakout adds uncertainty, while the Point of Control around 162.08 could be the key reference level if price begins to move lower.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/JPY: Battling at the Top of the Triangle
On 3 July, Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated that the Ministry of Finance remains in close contact with US authorities regarding developments in USD/JPY as the yen traded near its weakest level in almost 40 years. Similar verbal warnings have become increasingly common whenever the pair approaches the 162.00 area, although no direct intervention has been announced so far.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected US inflation data added pressure to the dollar. On 14 July, June's Consumer Price Index came in below forecasts, significantly reducing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting and pushing US Treasury yields lower. The combination of increasingly cautious rhetoric from Japanese officials and softer US inflation expectations may keep USD/JPY range-bound, preventing buyers from establishing a sustained break above its multi-decade highs.
Technical Picture
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY advanced steadily throughout June, reaching a peak near 162.80 on 1 July. A sharp reversal followed, with the pair dropping rapidly to the 160.50 area, where the green support zone is currently located. The decline coincided with market speculation about a possible currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.
After rebounding from the 3 July low, the pair began forming a triangle pattern. Price is now testing the upper boundary of the formation, although the attempted upside breakout is currently being capped by the upper edge of the current volume profile at 162.45. Just above this level lies the red resistance zone at 162.70.
The Point of Control (POC) is located around 162.08 and could become a key magnet if the pair moves back towards the lower part of the range, where two additional important technical levels are visible: the lower boundary of the volume profile at 161.45 and the green support zone at 160.50.
Volume behaviour also deserves attention. The break above the triangle's upper boundary was not supported by strong bullish volume, indicating limited buying conviction and increasing the risk that the breakout could soon reverse. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs oscillator stands at 54, 52 and 52 respectively, with all three readings remaining firmly in neutral territory, reinforcing the current lack of directional conviction.
Key Takeaways
USD/JPY is testing the upper boundary of its current market structure while momentum indicators remain neutral. The lack of bullish volume at the breakout adds uncertainty, while the Point of Control around 162.08 could be the key reference level if price begins to move lower.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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#AUDCAD #forextrading #forex #marketanalysis #MarketVolatility
AUD/CAD: Months of Indecision — Is a Breakout Finally Coming?
The Australian dollar has clawed back most of its end-of-June losses, when it touched three-month lows against the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Since then, sentiment has improved: the RBA's Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter signalled the board stands ready to tighten further if the recent oil shock feeds into inflation expectations. Still, resilient business surveys and a modest improvement in consumer confidence point to an economy holding up better than feared.
The Bank of Canada told a similarly nuanced story this week. Policymakers held the overnight rate steady at 2.25% and struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the domestic economy, upgrading medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, officials were careful to flag that instability in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on the broader outlook, keeping the door open to both risks and opportunities depending on how the conflict evolves.
The result: two central banks watching the same geopolitical flashpoint, each balancing early signs of domestic resilience against a risk backdrop neither can fully control.
AUD/CAD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, AUD/CAD has been trading within a broader range between the 0.9750 support and 0.9950 resistance since April, with price action compressing into a tighter symmetrical triangle since June. This narrowing structure suggests a breakout could soon define the pair's direction over the medium term.
Bullish Scenario
Price continues finding support along the ascending trendline, having bounced off it multiple times and testing it once again. A renewed sign of strength here—breaking both the 200-period EMA and the descending trendline—would open the path back towards the 0.9950 resistance, the acid test for whether this level finally gives way or rejects price once more.
Bearish Scenario
Should the ascending trendline finally break, price would quickly face the critical 0.9750 support, a level traders have been watching closely for months. A bounce here keeps the pair locked within its consolidation range, but a decisive break after so many failed attempts would likely signal a medium-term trend shift, opening the door toward the next area of interest between 0.9500 and 0.9550.
Will AUD/CAD finally commit to a direction after months of indecision?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUD/CAD: Months of Indecision — Is a Breakout Finally Coming?
The Australian dollar has clawed back most of its end-of-June losses, when it touched three-month lows against the greenback amid escalating Middle East tensions. Since then, sentiment has improved: the RBA's Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter signalled the board stands ready to tighten further if the recent oil shock feeds into inflation expectations. Still, resilient business surveys and a modest improvement in consumer confidence point to an economy holding up better than feared.
The Bank of Canada told a similarly nuanced story this week. Policymakers held the overnight rate steady at 2.25% and struck a cautiously optimistic tone on the domestic economy, upgrading medium-term growth expectations. At the same time, officials were careful to flag that instability in the Middle East continues to weigh heavily on the broader outlook, keeping the door open to both risks and opportunities depending on how the conflict evolves.
The result: two central banks watching the same geopolitical flashpoint, each balancing early signs of domestic resilience against a risk backdrop neither can fully control.
AUD/CAD Technical Analysis
As the 4-hour chart shows, AUD/CAD has been trading within a broader range between the 0.9750 support and 0.9950 resistance since April, with price action compressing into a tighter symmetrical triangle since June. This narrowing structure suggests a breakout could soon define the pair's direction over the medium term.
Bullish Scenario
Price continues finding support along the ascending trendline, having bounced off it multiple times and testing it once again. A renewed sign of strength here—breaking both the 200-period EMA and the descending trendline—would open the path back towards the 0.9950 resistance, the acid test for whether this level finally gives way or rejects price once more.
Bearish Scenario
Should the ascending trendline finally break, price would quickly face the critical 0.9750 support, a level traders have been watching closely for months. A bounce here keeps the pair locked within its consolidation range, but a decisive break after so many failed attempts would likely signal a medium-term trend shift, opening the door toward the next area of interest between 0.9500 and 0.9550.
Will AUD/CAD finally commit to a direction after months of indecision?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips*. Learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen. *Additional fees may apply.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. You can find the full disclaimer here: www.fxopen.com
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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