The Fed is likely to pave the way for a rate cut in September

The central event of the current week is the Fed meeting, which has the potential to create significant market movement and set the tone for the coming months. Although there is virtually no chance of a rate cut at the end of July, investors and traders will be closely watching for signals in an attempt to assess the likelihood of policy easing in September.

According to the latest estimates, the futures market is pricing in a 64% chance of a rate cut in September after it was held steady at the end of July. This disposition leaves plenty of room for market expectations to be adjusted, ultimately affecting dollar market dynamics. The Fed prefers to give clearer hints in advance, changing its official commentary at least one meeting in advance. Wednesday's decision promises to be a compromise between the three camps.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈Positive dynamics prevail in the US stock market pre-market.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up 1.30%, and AMD (AMD) shares are growing 1.26%.

In the Finance sector, Bank of America (BAC) and Visa (V) shares are up 0.23% and 0.25%, respectively.

In the Consumer Goods sector, Procter & Gamble (PG) shares are up 0.83%, while Coca-Cola (KO) shares are up 0.15%.

The predominance of growth among the largest capitalisation companies indicates strong demand and the attraction of investment flows, which could strengthen the dollar against the background of investor interest in US assets.

Bitcoin remains stable after a turbulent first half of the year

After a turbulent rally in the first half of July, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation. Neither the sixth consecutive record high of the S&P 500 nor the associated improvement in global risk appetite are helping it. At the same time, the medium- and long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Citigroup expects to see the cryptocurrency at $135K by the end of 2025.

While individual traders are staying away from Bitcoin's consolidation, institutional investors are active in the ETF market, and retailers and banks are beginning to integrate digital assets into their operations actively. For example, PayPal has announced plans to use stablecoins to transfer transactions to merchants' accounts. With 650 million cryptocurrency users worldwide and $3 trillion in wallets, this needs to be taken into account and applied.

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⚠️ USA — JOLTs Job Openings at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 7710K

🕒 Exp: 7510K

🎯 Fact.: 7440K 📉

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⚠️ USA — CB Consumer Confidence at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 95.2

🕒 Exp: 95.9

🎯 Fact.: 97.2 📈

The US trade deficit has stopped pressuring the dollar

Due to a decline in imports, the US trade deficit narrowed in June to $86 billion, down from $96.4 billion a month earlier and a peak of $162 billion in March. Anticipating trade disputes, US importers began to increase purchases sharply in December. However, even without this, the deficit hovered near a record $100 billion per month throughout the second half of 2024.

Now, imports are returning after their surge, but their June volume of $264 billion is the lowest since March last year, and it is still too early to talk about a reversal of the long-term growth trend. Exports continue to show a long-term trend of gradual growth, although they lost 0.6% last month.

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Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025

Dow Jones: ⬇️ Sell

- Dow Jones reversed from the long-term resistance level 45000.00

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025

- EURGBP reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely fall to support level 0.8635

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/30 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.1% Actual: 1.9%

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Consumer Prices Index — Exp: 0.8% | 2.2% Actual: 0.7% | 2.1%

01:30 🇦🇺 RBA Trimmed Mean CPI — Exp: 0.7% | 2.7% Actual: 0.6% | 2.7%

01:30 🇦🇺 RBA Weighted Median — Exp: 0.6% | 2.7% Actual: 0.6% | 2.7%

07:00 🇨🇭 KOF Economic Barometer — Exp: 97.5 Actual: 101.1

08:00 🇩🇪 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: -0.1% | 0.2% Actual: -0.1% | 0.4%

09:00 🇪🇺 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.0% | 1.2% Actual: 0.1% | 1.4%

12:15 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 77K Actual: 104K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 3.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.5%

12:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index — Exp: 2.2% Actual: 2.0%

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Overnight Rate — Exp: 2.75% Actual: 2.75%

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Rate Statement

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Monetary Policy Report

14:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales — Exp: 0.3% Actual: -0.8% | -2.8%

14:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Press Conference

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -2300K Actual: 7698K

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50%

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

18:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

23:20 🇦🇺 RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025

Nikkei 225: ⬇️ Sell

- Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance zone

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Trump Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025

- Trump falling inside the sideways price range

- Likely fall to support level 8.4380

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⚠️ Australia — Consumer Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.1%

🕒 Exp: 2.1%

🎯 Fact.: 1.9% 📉

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⚠️ Australia — Consumer Prices Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.9% | 2.4%

🕒 Exp: 0.8% | 2.2%

🎯 Fact.: 0.7% 📉 | 2.1% 📉

Crypto market cautiously retreats ahead of news

The crypto market cap has retreated another 0.7% over the last day to $3.87 trillion, maintaining a cautious stance ahead of an extremely busy second half of the week in terms of macroeconomic news. This impact is the result of the cryptocurrency market being saturated with institutional players who play by the usual rules.

Bitcoin fell below $117K at the end of Tuesday, but it returned above $118.2k during the European session and is moving higher. However, the dynamics of recent days also indicate impressive selling pressure as it approaches $119K. The upcoming Fed meeting has sufficient potential to disrupt this lull. At the same time, it is important to be prepared for false breakouts and not to rush to conclusions about the direction until the price consolidates outside the $116-120K range.

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⚠️ USA — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -23K

🕒 Exp: 77K

🎯 Fact.: 104K 📈

⚠️ USA — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: -0.5%

🕒 Exp: 2.4%

🎯 Fact.: 3.0% 📈

🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 On the day of the Fed's interest rate decision, the US stock market premarket is showing mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up 0.70%, while Apple (AAPL) shares are down 0.18%.

In the finance sector, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are down 0.07%, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares are down 0.04%.

In the Healthcare sector, Eli Lilly (LLY) shares are up 0.92%, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares are down 0.17%.

Mixed signals from key sectors are creating uncertainty for the dollar in the short term, which could lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate depending on incoming macroeconomic data.

The US private sector is showing signs of health, spurring the dollar’s recovery

Private sector employment data released by ADP showed an increase of 104K jobs in July after a decline of 23K previously (revised from -33K) – better than expected and a noticeable improvement compared to the previous month.

According to the report, employment grew across all sectors of the economy, except for education and health services (-38K), despite steep changes in these sectors under the new US administration. The company commented that employers have become more optimistic about consumers' resilience, which is an important sign of economic health.

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⚠️ Canada — Overnight Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 2.75%

🕒 Exp: 2.75%

🎯 Fact.: 2.75%

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⚠️ Canada — BOC Press Conference at 14:30 GMT

Bank of Canada keeps rate unchanged, warns of possible cut

The Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting. This is a pause after an aggressive cut from 5% between June last year and March this year. The uncertainty caused by tariff disputes with the US remains a central issue for Canada and its central bank, dominating the official commentary on the rate.

At the same time, the commentary warned that they are ready to consider lowering the key rate if the upward pressure on prices from tariffs is moderate and economic activity slows down, creating downside risks for inflation.

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