New Zealand’s labour market – a new reason to pause the RBNZ’s rate cuts

The New Zealand dollar was able to swim against the tide on Wednesday, strengthening against the dollar more than its other competitors on positive labour market statistics. NZDUSD has gained 0.6% since the start of the day to 0.5930, hitting a weekly high.

In the second quarter, the number of people employed fell by 0.9% compared to the same period a year earlier, but this data was in line with average forecasts. At the same time, the unemployment rate was better than expected, rising from 5.1% to 5.2%, while 5.3% was expected. Salaries rose 0.6% for the quarter and were 2.2% higher than a year earlier — quite healthy figures above forecasts.

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🇺🇸 US pre-market

📈 The US stock market premarket is showing mixed dynamics.

In the Electronic Technology sector, Apple (AAPL) shares are up 1.55%, while Nvidia (NVDA) shares are down 0.83%.

In the finance sector, Bank of America (BAC) shares are up 0.29%, while Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) shares are up 0.10%.

In the Consumer Services sector, McDonald's (MCD) shares are up significantly by 4.01%, while Disney (DIS) shares are down 0.35%.

Selective dynamics with a predominance of growth among large-cap companies are supporting the dollar by attracting targeted investment flows. However, caution prevails against the background of mixed movements in key industries.

Breakout or Fakeout? EUR/GBP Awaits BoE Rate Cut Signal

On Thursday, the Bank of England is widely expected by analysts to cut its base rate by a quarter of a point to 4.0%. These expectations are weighing on the pound against the euro and the dollar on Wednesday, as the ECB and the Fed left their rates unchanged in July. Globally, this is a game of catch-up on the part of the BoE, as since August, when the cuts began, the rate has been cut by only 100 points, with 25 more to be added on Thursday. This is significantly less than the ECB's 235 points and commensurate with the Fed's 100 points.

The important question is whether the Bank of England will follow the ECB or give hints to raise expectations for further easing. In theory, the BoE has considerable room for this, given the subdued growth rates and the level of policy tightness (the difference between the rate and inflation).

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/07 (GMT)

03:00 🇳🇿 Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Actual: 2.28%

03:02 🇨🇳 Trade Balance — Exp: 105.2B | 756B Actual: 98.2B | 710B

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.00% Actual: 4.00%

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-8-1 Actual: 0-5-4

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

11:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Monetary Policy Report

11:30 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 221K Actual: 226K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1950K Actual: 1974K

14:00 🇨🇦 Ivey PMI — Exp: 55.2 Actual: 55.8 | 54.6


[Updated in real time]

Adobe Wave Analysis – 6 August 2025

- Adobe reversed from strong support level of 335.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 360.00

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Uniswap Wave Analysis – 6 August 2025

- Uniswap reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 11.00

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EURCHF Wave Analysis – 6 August 2025

- EURCHF rising inside sideways price range

- Likely to test resistance level 0.9420

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 6 August 2025

- EURUSD reversed from support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1755

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Stock market growth has boosted altcoins more than BTC

The crypto market increased its capitalisation by almost 1% over the past day to $3.76 trillion. This smooth recovery is consistent with the growing appetite in the stock markets, where the Nasdaq100 is approaching peak values, trading just over 1% below its historical highs. The growth drivers remain the leading altcoins ETH (+2.4%), XRP (+1.7%), Solana (+3.7%) and Dogecoin (+2.7%) against a modest +0.7% for BTC.

Bitcoin is approaching $115K on Thursday morning, reinforcing confidence in a rebound from the 50-day moving average in the first days of the month. However, the situation is clouded by uncertainty due to trading within a narrow range. Signals for a continuation of the movement will be a breakout of support at $112K (recent local lows and 50-day average) or a breakout of resistance at $120K (July peaks and an important round level).

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⚠️ UK — Bank of England Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.25%

🕒 Exp: 4.00%

🎯 Fact.: 4.00%

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⚠️ UK — MPC Official Bank Rate Votes at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0-3-6

🕒 Exp: 0-8-1

🎯 Fact.: 0-5-4 📈

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⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 11:30 GMT

German trade and manufacturing weigh on the euro

German industrial production has fallen sharply over the past three months, declining by 1.6% in April, 0.1% in May and 1.9% in June. The industrial production index is at its lowest level since April 2010, excluding a brief dip in March 2020.

The industrial production index stabilised and even increased last year and at the beginning of this year, but in recent months, the trend that has been evident since 2023 or even 2018 has resumed.

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 219K

🕒 Exp: 221K

🎯 Fact.: 226K 📉

The Magnificent Seven continues to drive US stocks higher

The S&P 500's pullback after disappointing US employment statistics allowed investors to switch into the buy-the-dip mode. The FOMO strategy continues to dominate the stock market. Major players doubt whether the broad stock index can continue its rally amid the economic slowdown. The crowd is taking advantage of their sluggishness and increasing their long positions. Bulls are counting on the Fed to ease monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and positive corporate reporting.

Actual second-quarter results exceeded forecasts by 9.1%, the largest positive deviation since 2021. The Magnificent Seven set the tone, with profits jumping 26%. The rest of the S&P 500 companies achieved more modest growth of 4%.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/08/08 (GMT)

11:15 🇬🇧 MPC Member Huw Pill Speaks

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 15.3K Actual: -40.8K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 7.0% Actual: 6.9%

12:30 🇨🇦 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -51.0K | 10.3K


[Updated in real time]

NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 7 August 2025

- NZDUSD reversed from the support area

- Likely to test resistance level 0.6050

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 7 August 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3600

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