#NFP #EconomicReview

▫️The US economy added 114K jobs in July;

▫️Wage growth also missed expectations;

▫️Unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%;

▫️Markets access chances of more than 3 rate cuts in 2024;

▫️Untypically, US Dollar weakens along with stocks.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ RBA keeps interest rate at 4.35%, warns it is prepared to keep it there for a long time

▫️ RBA doesn't seem spooked by recent sell-off and isn't ready to ease monetary conditions

▫️ #AUDUSD continues to struggle for support at 0.6500

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#EconomicReview

▫️ #NZDUSD up over 1% on Wednesday to 0.6010 on better-than-expected jobs data.

▫️ Wages rose 4.2% y/y, above CPI's 3.3% growth.

▫️ NZDUSD reverses again from global support levels.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ Chinese CPI rose to 0.5% y/y, beating expectations;

▫️ PPI remained at -0.8% but maintained an upward trend.

▫️ #USDCNH has become more sensitive to carry trade fluctuations than the macroeconomy.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ The UK unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.4%, but new data showed a 135K rise in claimant claims.

▫️ Earnings growth slows to 4.5% 3m/y, lowest since 2021

▫️ The pound reacted positively to the better-than-expected figures, but there are doubts about the sustainability of the trend for #GBPUSD.

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#EconomicReview #DXY

▫️ US Retail Sales +1% m/m vs expected 0.4%;

▫️ Weekly jobless claims fall for the second week, erasing earlier gains;

▫️ Dollar rises on a reassessment of interest rate expectations, and stocks rise on reduced risk of economic recession.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ Building Activity has fallen to levels where the Fed would start cutting rates in 2007 and 2019;

▫️ Despite expectations of looser policy, this sounds like bad news for equities and bullish for the dollar.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ Canadian inflation slowed to its lowest since 2021, generally below expectations;

▫️ New home prices returned to year-over-year growth;

▫️ #USDCAD fell despite weak oil and came close to testing 200-day MA.

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#EconomicReview

▫️ German GDP confirms more than two years of stagnation, losing 0.1% in 2Q24

▫️ Consumer climate index falls as economic expectations and propensity to spend worsen

▫️ #EURGBP back near 2-year lows, losing 2.2% in 3 weeks

#EconomicReview

▫️ German inflation slowed to 1.9%, weaker than expected, putting pressure on the euro.

In the US, revised data lifted the estimate for Q2 GDP growth to 3.0%.

▫️ Initial and continuing jobless claims were slightly better than expected but strong by historical standards.

#EconomicReview

▫️ Swiss consumer inflation slowed to 1.1% y/y, weaker than expected;

▫️ This paves the way for the third NBS rate cut this year;

▫️ #USDCHF is back below 0.8500, where it was only stable in 2011, forcing the central bank to push the franc out of that territory.

#EconomicReview
▫️ Eurozone PPI have risen sharply in the past two months;

▫️ Business activity indices, however, point to weakness in manufacturing and growth only in services;

▫️ ECB unlikely to reconsider rate cuts as price rises have more to do with tariff wars than an overheating economy.

#EconomicReview

▫️ US job openings fell to a 3-year low, but that's above 2019's peak;

▫️ ADP noted employment growth of 99K jobs, slowing after returning to the 15-year trend;

▫️ Weekly jobless claims have been falling steadily since July.

▫️ The labour market is not weak enough for an emergency rate cut

#EconomicReview

▫️ UK jobless claims rose to 23.7K, better than the 95.5K expected and the 102.3K a month earlier;

▫️ Wage growth slowed to 4% 3m/y from 4.6% 3m/y;

▫️ The Pound was temporarily supported as the data did not dramatically affect interest rate forecasts.

#EconomicReview
▫️ The UK economy was flat for the second month in a row (worse than expected +0.2%);

▫️ The main disappointment was a 0.8% m/m fall in industrial production (0.2% growth expected) and a widening of the external deficit to 20bn;

▫️ The weaker-than-expected data worked against the Pound, despite the tailwind of a weaker USD at the time of publication.

#EconomicReview

▫️ Data released from China showed a deterioration in key economic indicators, increasing fears of an economic slowdown and forcing the central bank to promise additional measures to lower borrowing costs.

▫️ The slowing economy and stimulus measures may lead to a weaker CNY, although the effect may not be immediately apparent.

▫️ A technically oversold yuan points to a possible rebound, but in the longer term a weaker yuan could revive inflationary momentum and demand for Chinese goods.

#EconomicReview

▫️ ZEW German economic sentiment index fell to 3.6, current conditions fell to -84.5.

▫️ The marked divergence from expectations reinforced the short-term negative impact on the euro. ECB expected to accelerate monetary easing

▫️ The trade surplus remains large, but exports have fallen by 24% over the past two years. An appreciating euro reduces the eurozone's competitiveness, which could lead to even looser monetary policy from the ECB.