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#Review

Shares of #Nvidia, the world's most traded, most popular, and most valuable company, have been under corrective pressure for a while. From last Thursday's peak at $140.48, the price has lost 16% to $117.86 in just three trading days.

Investors are taking abundant profits in one of their favourite securities, which has seen a three-fold increase in price since the beginning of 2024 and a ten-fold increase since the beginning of 2023. The amplitude of the company's growth and capitalisation is so significant that it influences the direction of the Nasdaq100 index and the entire US market.

Nvidia’s 6.7% drop on Monday provided the worst day for the Nasdaq100 since April. For now, we're seeing more signs of a quarterly portfolio shakeout but not a global downside reversal.

The heavy selling in the Nasdaq100 index has come with the index touching territory above 20,000, taking 3% away from it already.
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#Review
#Gold: third time lucky for the bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs.

On Wednesday morning, the price temporarily dipped below $2310, returning to the support area of the last two months near $2300. This brought the price close to an important level for the market, promising an imminent battle between bulls and bears.

We see gold's momentum from the October 2023 lows to the March 2024 highs. This was a principal reversal from the 200-week moving average.

Since then, the market balance has shifted to sell on the upside, indicating the prevalence of profit-taking. But so far, we are seeing a shallow correction, typical of strong bull markets, as the drawdown is being brought back on the decline to 76.4% of total momentum instead of the classic 61.8% (at $2200).
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#Review #USDJPY
Yen: a managing decline
The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest since 1986 against the dollar and a historic low against the euro. Its YTD loss is 12.5%, the third-worst performance after the Nigerian naira and the Egyptian pound among the 36 most liquid global currencies.

This performance of the currency has the monetary and financial authorities in the Land of the Rising Sun publicly displeased. However, their anger is not as strong as it was in October 2022 and November 2023, when powerful currency interventions reversed the trend from decline to growth for months. It was not even as strong as in late April when the USDJPY pair was pushed back more than 4% in five trading days.

The persistent pressure on the yen is the result of fundamental forces. Japan's monetary policy remains ultrasoft, with the key rate at 0.1% versus the Fed's 5.25-5.50%, justifying a long-term carry trade.
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#Review
Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems
The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the dollar’s main competitors have faced their difficulties one after another, coming under selling pressure.

Political uncertainty remains over France and the UK due to expectations of opposition parties coming to power. Some investors fear accelerating de-globalisation, which is seen as negative by global investors. The results of the first round in France spurred the euro only briefly, and by midday on Tuesday, #EURUSD again approached 1.0710, where it spent the second half of June. It is worth noting that this euro sell-off is also supported by declines in bonds and the equity market.
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#Review
Fed Chairman Greenspan once said, ‘If I've made myself too clear, you must have misunderstood me’. It seems that over the past 15 years, the Fed has become increasingly transparent in its reasoning and expectations. Therefore, there is only a small chance that the markets misinterpreted Fed Chairman Powell's speech yesterday.

At the ECB conference on Tuesday, the current Fed’s chief noted that the US is back on a "disinflationary path". Of course, this was followed by caveats that more data is needed to decide on a rate cut. However, this is a very clear hint that a rate cut is imminent unless the data holds some unpleasant surprises.

This is a very bold assumption. The core price index growth rate is drifting downwards (3.4%), almost half the peak rate of 6.6% in September 2022. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, is slowing, falling to 2.6%, the lowest since April 2021. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate has been in the 3.0-3.7% range for the past 12 months.
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#Review
Crude #Oil moved up but looks vulnerable
Crude oil inventories in US commercial storage fell by 12.2 million barrels last week, marking the sharpest decline since last July.

The decrease is attributed to preparations for the start of the US driving season. Not only was the change significant, but it was also drastically different from the expected 0.4 million decline, prompting impulse buying in Oil.

The price went from declining to rising shortly after the data release, swinging the price of a barrel of WTI from the day's lows at $81.90 to a high at $83.40, likely halting a corrective pullback after a week of gains. Potentially, this strengthens the odds that the price will further update three-month highs in the near term, heading towards $85.
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#Review #Gold
Weakness in gold's growth

Gold has lost 0.9% since the start of Monday, almost back to the point where it was trading before the release of jobs data on Friday. Perhaps the very first market reaction to the data release highlighted the mindset of key market participants: they are ready to sell.

Gold has been on an upward trend since the last few days of June, leading the price up 4% to $2390 at its peak on Friday. This can largely be attributed to the dollar's 1% decline, as gold often moves with a higher amplitude.

Weak employment figures also pushed up the gold price on Friday, leading to a weaker dollar and bringing the start of rate cuts closer. However, we note the momentum of the 0.8% decline in gold in the first moments after publication.
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#Review
The pound is preparing for a bullish breakout
#GBPUSD is trading near 1.28, which has acted as an area of resistance in the pair since last December. At the same time, the range of fluctuations of the pound is narrowing, as since October, the downside impulses have become less and less deep, with the price increasingly approaching the top of the ascending triangle. Classically, such a pattern ends with a breakout of resistance.

The current resistance's importance is reinforced by the fact that near 1.2850 is the 200-week moving average, an important filter of the long-term trend. A failure under this line in 2022 kicked off a more than 20% collapse in the pound over the next six months.

Almost exactly one year ago, we saw a false breakdown of this line followed by a month and a half of increased pressure. This only reinforces the importance of a resistance breakdown if a new bear attack does not follow it.
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#Review

RBNZ dovishness hits the Kiwi
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting, which was in line with analyst expectations. However, the central bank's comments were softer than expected, dragging down NZDUSD by around 1% to 0.6070, a low for the week.

The RBNZ expects inflation to return to the 1-3% target range in the second half of the year and hinted at the possibility of reducing the degree of monetary tightening. At its last meeting in May, the regulator was leaning towards the need for another hike. However, it has now moved into line with the major global central banks, where markets have seen or expect 1-2 rate cuts before the end of the year.

By modern standards, this is a sharp policy reversal that has clipped the Kiwi's vestigial wings.
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#Review

Pound on the offensive
Positive news for the Pound, beyond the fact that England will play in the Euro-24 final. The monthly estimate showed that the economy grew by 0.4% in May (twice as much as expected) and that growth in the last three months accelerated to 1% year-on-year. That's the fastest pace since early 2023, although it's about half of what it was before the pandemic hit.

The services sector continued to drive growth, adding 1.1% over three months. Meanwhile, the construction sector added 1.9% in May (vs 0.5% expected), shifting from -2.1% y/y to +0.8% over the month. Construction and services are non-tradable sectors, and the current situation points to very healthy domestic demand.
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#Review
Promising divergence of Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000
Indices in the US went in different directions. While the market’s flagship gainer of recent years, the #Nasdaq100, has lost nearly 2.9% from its peak just after the CPI data, the index of small-cap companies, the #Russell2000, has soared 4.7% to date.

We saw one of the most notable one-day rotations in market history. This is only the second time since 1979 that the Russell 2000 has closed the day up over 3% (it was up 3.6%) against the backdrop of a decline in the S&P500. Considering the magnitude of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 decline (0.7% and 2.3%, respectively), this was the largest divergence that occurred quite suddenly.

It’s easy to find justifications for a rally in a small-company index. A slowdown in inflation is a historically positive signal for such firms. Typically, during these periods, companies rebuild margins, getting a chance to keep up with the largest corporations.
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#Review #DXY
While Trump’s rise to power is widely seen as a positive for the dollar, the dollar index hit a one-month low on Monday as it continues to rebound from the Fed’s latest softening tone and inflation slowdown.

The impact of Trump’s policies on the dollar is largely based on the experience of his previous presidential term. As president, he imposed tariffs on imports and cut corporate taxes. Both elements are on his economic agenda again. Tariffs potentially reduce imports to curb trade deficits. Tax cuts encourage capital inflows.

However, both factors began to affect the dollar only after these policies kicked in. In addition, lawmakers effectively blocked these changes in the early months, making an early bet on the fundamental trend counterproductive.

Among the fundamentals, speculation around expectations for a Fed rate cut is now more influential. By the end of last week, markets were factoring in 3 consecutive cuts this year, starting in September, as the most likely scenario.
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#Review #WTI
Oil is losing ground, once again
threatening to fall below $80 per barrel WTI, despite a weaker dollar and strong gains in gold and equities. We may be seeing market participants trying to stay within the established pattern, but there’s a good chance that oil is reflecting a turn in the economy to a slowdown.

Oil is giving up ground for the second week, having reversed to the downside from $83.8. This is the development of a sequence of lower local highs since the beginning of 2022. The bulls failed to break through the resistance line despite the Fed's easing signals.

It seems that oil traders read signals of future demand problems in the signals from Powell and other FOMC members rather than anticipation of monetary easing. Oil is very sensitive to fluctuations in demand, and a 1-2% change in the supply-demand balance can change the price by tens of per cent.
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#Review
GBP looks stronger than USD thanks to inflation
A batch of inflation statistics from the UK seems to have fuelled the Pound's rally against the Dollar and Euro, which has been going strong since the beginning of the month.

Consumer inflation remained at 2.0%, with the core index at 3.5% y/y. At the same time, positive monthly price trends persisted, adding 0.1% in June versus a commensurate decline in the US. Inflationary processes in the UK look livelier than in the US.

The day before, markets were roughly evenly pricing in the chances of a rate cut on 1 August. Judging by the market reaction, traders are now inclined to extend the pause, expecting the easing cycle to start in September.
#Review #WTI #Brent
Crude Oil went back to crucial support. What’s next?

Oil started July by attempting to break the downside resistance that has been forming on weekly timeframes since March 2022. Reversals from lower and lower levels are supported by a slowing global economy and stagnant demand. The only thing holding the price back from a real collapse is the fact that the oil supply has also been shrinking or stagnating in recent months.

Notably, oil reversed downwards last week despite the rather bullish news on inventories. Commercial oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels and 20.5 million in three consecutive weeks of declines. Total commercial inventories are estimated at 440 million barrels, down 3.8% from a year ago. The strategic reserve was replenished by 0.65mn for the week to 373.7 million (+7.7% y/y).
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#Review #DXY
Dollar Bears paused, breaking the uptrend
Last week, the dollar index regained some of its losses from the previous four weeks, but technically, it looks like short-term profit-taking by sellers before a new downward momentum.

The US dollar has been under pressure since late June as the Fed noted progress in reducing inflation. Money markets readily accepted this signal, giving a 94% probability of a rate cut in September versus 66% a month earlier and just 46% about two months ago. These changes are causing short-term bond yields to fall, reducing interest in the dollar.

Changes in expectations have taken about 2% away from the dollar over the past month. But on this downward path, the DXY has taken several technical levels, showing increasing signs of moving into a downward trend.
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#Review
#Gold bent but not yet broken
Gold came close to closing lower for the second week in a row, falling to $2372 per troy ounce on Friday morning, $111 below its high on July 17th.

This decline occurred in two impulses, with an intermediate correction in between, and fits within a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement pattern from the initial decline. The extension of the pattern within the classic expansion suggests a downside target near $2320.

On the other hand, gold found buying support on Thursday and early on Friday at the crossover of the 50-day moving average near $2360. This also coincides with the consolidation centre of the repeated pullbacks from April to June. This means that the decline in this area is well within the framework of a correction, and it is not yet possible to claim that the gold rally has broken and that a top has been established for many months and years to come.
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#Review #WTI
Oil Is a Step Away from Falling Off a Cliff
Oil is currently adding 0.6% to $76.45 per barrel WTI, but that's only half of the spurt at the start of trading after the weekend. An important technical signal is forming in oil, as it closed last week below its 200-week average (now at $77.19) for the first time since January 2020 and was unable to quickly get back above it.

Cautious traders will probably prefer to wait for a failure below $75, which would cement a technical break of support through the area of the past 16 months lows.
#Review

▫️ There is classic risk-aversion in the markets

▫️ Judging by the VIX, fear is really high.

▫️ Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq100 at risk of falling to 200-week MA

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#Review #WTI

▫️ Oil continues to plummet, with only a brief rebound on Monday;

▫️ US commercial inventories are only down 1.5% y/y, while the SPR is up 8%;

▫️ Technical picture is on the sell side after falling below 200-week MA

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