​​Experts Disagree on Prospects of Bitcoin ETF in 2021 as Deadline Nears

Receiving “no news is good news” for the approval of a bitcoin (BTC) futures-backed exchange traded fund (ETF), according to Bloomberg’s ETF analyst. However, others are more pessimistic, believing that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to delay the approval of a bitcoin ETF until 2022.

Speaking on CNBC on Monday, Todd Rosenbluth, senior director of ETF and mutual fund research at investment research firm CFRA, said that hopeful investors may still have to wait for a while before a bitcoin ETF will be approved, even if the ETF is backed by futures contracts rather than “physical” bitcoins.

“It’s possible – in fact, we think it’s likely – that we’re going to see a delay of a bitcoin futures ETF until 2022, until the regulatory environment is more clear,” Rosenbluth said in the video interview.

The ETF researcher continued by saying that a potential approval comes down to “a timing issue,” explaining that if the decisions on the ETF proposals are moved to 2022, all of the products “can launch at the same time instead of one getting a first-mover advantage.”

In the same interview, ETF issuer Van Eck Associates CEO Jan van Eck also noted that the SEC’s main concern is that discrepancies will occur between bitcoin spot and futures prices.

“In bitcoin rallies, bitcoin futures strategies can underperform by even up to 20% a year,” van Eck explained, while adding that the SEC wants “some visibility into the underlying bitcoin markets.”

​​Existing Permissions, Heated Regulators, Useless Thinking and 20 Crypto Jokes

This cryptoweek, Vladimir Putin declared that bitcoin has the “right to exist”. So there you go, no worries, BTC will not vanish from existence. Also, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon reiterated that he thinks BTC is useless… Anyways, with the rise of crypto prices came a jump in the crypto market sentiment, derivatives traders were more active again with open interest in BTC futures going up significantly, and as BTC entered the spotlight, Ethereum took a break. Speaking of Ethereum, half a million dollars was paid for a failed transaction. Yikes! Polkadot rallied too as the team said that parachains can be deployed. Bitfury is said to be valued 'in billions' of pounds as IPO rumors reemerge, a new funding round could bring Consensys’ value to USD 3bn, Binance dedicated USD 1bn towards growing the ecosystem of its BSC, FTX US launched its new NFT marketplace, 1.5% of Coinbase existing user number joined their NFT marketplace waitlist in just a day, and some critics described TikTok’s planned NFT rollout as a flop. As this was happening, Stripe is looking to hire a team of engineers for its crypto operations, while the online voting period for the Mt. Gox creditors to approve or reject the proposed civil rehabilitation plan ended.

Meanwhile, experts were disagreeing on the prospects of a bitcoin ETF in 2021 as the deadline nears, and ‘well-informed’ SEC commissioners disagreed on the crypto regulation while the SEC’s current approach is ‘harmful’. Also, the IMF said that a peak in inflation is expected during the final months of this year, but that central banks should not tighten monetary policy yet. In South Korea, USD 1.8m remained unaccounted for two weeks post-shutdown, a regulator said that DeFi and NFT regulations are coming, and lawmakers are inundating parliament with crypto tax delay bills. Following China’s crackdown on BTC mining earlier this year, the US became the largest Bitcoin mining hub, and while Moscow will not follow Beijing’s regulatory move, it may banish exchanges overseas – while the real Chinese crypto crackdown is set to begin. Some citizens are resorting to “identity theft” in a bid to obtain USD 30 worth of BTC through Chivo, and 45% of respondents in a survey said they plan to use crypto payments when making non-cash transactions within the next 2 years.

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​​Odds Grow That South Korean Crypto Tax Will Be Postponed

Media outlets and lawmakers have been pouring scorn on the South Korean government’s much-maligned plans to introduce a tax on crypto trading from next year – with some suggesting that Seoul will have to back down from its plans.

As reported last week, the National Assembly will assess four separate private member’s bills that seek to delay or amend plans to levy 20% capital gains tax charges on crypto trading profits above an annual threshold of USD 2,100 as of January 1, 2022.

The National Assembly has already signed off on the measure, although it was bundled into a range of other tax reforms. Since then, however, crypto tax has become an increasingly hot political potato. Earlier this month, the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki and Kim Dae-ji, the head of the National Tax Service (NTS) argued that there was no way to delay the new tax, despite fierce criticism from MPs.

Critics claim the tax is discriminatory. Traders are particularly irked by the threshold, as KOSDAQ stock market investors have a profit threshold of around USD 42,000.

Both Hong and Kim admitted that certain “practical difficulties” still remain with adoption, but refused to budge. Media outlets, however, suggested that their hands could well be forced by political powers stronger even than the government itself.

Chosun Ilbo reported that despite Deputy Prime Minister Hong’s assertions, the sentiment in the National Assembly was that “the law will be amended in the direction of delaying the taxation of cryptoassets before the year is out due to next year’s elections.”

​​Did Bitcoin Reach Another All-Time High? It Depends On Whom You Ask

Is the price of bitcoin (BTC) once again nearing its all-time high, or has it already exceeded it? The question is not as easy to answer as it seems, and, frankly, the answer depends on whom you ask.

As a truly global digital currency, bitcoin is traded by people on exchanges, over-the-counter (OTC), peer-to-peer (P2P) and in person all around the world, and against a whole range of fiat currencies.

And although the US dollar price of bitcoin on leading exchanges is perhaps the one most readers are familiar with, the bitcoin price is also often expressed in terms of other fiat currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), and British pound (GBP), to name just a few.

In fact, the price of bitcoin is already flirting with its all-time high in euro terms. At its daily high on Tuesday, bitcoin traded at EUR 54,249, versus an all-time high from April 14 of EUR 54,297 on crypto exchange Binance.

If we look at price data from the competing exchange Bitfinex, however, we find that BTC/EUR had already reached a new all-time high last Friday, on October 15, when it traded at EUR 54,207, versus the old high from April of EUR 54,172.

The detail was also pointed out by The Investor's Podcast Network host Preston Pysh recently, saying that the number one cryptocurrency is “right at the all-time high in euros”:

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​​Bitcoin Enters Price Discovery Mode, Lures Gold Investors

With the price of bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday reaching an all-time high above USD 67,000, the number one cryptocurrency is now in “unchartered territory” and entering “price discovery mode” while at the same time gold investors are increasingly rotating into BTC.

Commenting on the current bull-run in bitcoin, Mikkel Morch, Executive Director & Risk Management at crypto hedge fund ARK36, said that the market is now trying to establish a new price level for bitcoin in a process often referred to as “price discovery.”

“While a new all-time high is always a good moment to pause and celebrate for the bitcoin bulls, it is important to recognize that the second leg of this bull market is in reality only about to start,” Morch said in an emailed comment to Cryptonews.com.

He added that bitcoin is currently “riding a wave of extremely positive fundamentals” and that on-chain data now looks stronger than during the last all-time high from April, with long-term holders holding on to their coins, creating “perfect conditions for a supply squeeze.”

“All things considered, we are entering a completely uncharted territory with bitcoin in the price discovery mode where even a 6-digit price tag isn’t off the table anymore,” the crypto hedge fund manager said.

​​Oligarch, Industry Leader Say Russia Must ‘Engage’ with Crypto, End ‘Half-hearted’ Polices

Russian policymakers have been hit with a verbal lashing from both the crypto sector and the sphere of traditional business – with an oligarch and a blockchain industry leader urging Moscow to soften its crypto stance.

In a post on his Telegram channel, the oligarch Oleg Deripaska told the staunchly anti-crypto Central Bank to “engage” with the crypto sector and “take crypto seriously.” Deripaska is best-known as the founder of Basic Element, one of the nation’s biggest industrial groups, as well as the head of the aluminum giant RUSAL.

The oligarch warned that America was pulling away in the crypto race, and that Russia risked being left behind if it continued to fail to comprehend the severity of the situation.

He was quoted as explaining:

“It is time to open our eyes and take up cryptocurrency seriously. While our Central Bank is infant-like, closing its eyes to the growing cryptocurrency market, the United States Treasury is investing in development in this sphere.”

He also opined that crypto-keen politicians in Washington were “sharpening” the “weapon of economic defeat” – namely crypto – with “renewed vigor.”

Deripaska added that crypto had the power to defeat not only “economic sanctions,” but also had the power to “bring down the dollar.”

In the article comments, however, some questioned exactly what American politicians were developing, asking if there was really any evidence that Washington indeed had any of the projects the oligarch hinted at in the pipelines. Indeed, progress on any sort of digital dollar has proceeded at a glacial pace, although the private sector has been allowed to flourish.

Meanwhile, RBC reported that the head of the Russian Association of Cryptoeconomics, Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain (RACIB) Yuri Pripachkin hit out at Moscow’s “half-hearted” efforts to regulate the sector.

After years of political wrangling, crypto-specific legislation is still lacking in Russia, by politicians’ own admission, and Moscow’s stance on crypto remains confusing for most observers.

Pripachkin was quoted as stating that the nation’s policy was characterized by “slowness” and “opacity.”

​​US Government Unrealized Gains Tax Plans Might Hit Crypto 'Billionaires' Too

American stocks and crypto holders are braced for another tax-themed body blow from the government, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi claiming that a “wealth tax” – an unrealized capital gains levy – on its way to Congress as early as this week after striking an “agreement” on a spending plan in the House.

She spoke on CNN of the need to ensure a “wealth tax” was forthcoming to tax America’s “billionaires,” while also ensuring “corporate America” was not “let off the hook.”

This “wealth tax” is part of a series of measures aimed to fund President Joe Biden’s spending pledges. These also include the much-maligned infrastructure bill. CNN quoted Pelosi as stating that “the plan” was for a vote on the troubled bill next week, and the media outlet added:

“The goal among Democratic leaders is to have a vote Wednesday or Thursday on the infrastructure package and send it to Biden’s desk, a source briefed on the plan says.”

But while lawmakers have insisted on key amendments to the bill, the government appears to have returned to ideas of building its “wealth tax” around the notion of unrealized capital gains – increases in the value of assets that investors hold.

These only become “realized” when an investor sells an asset at a higher price than they paid for it. Currently, in the case of crypto, the price of an asset at purchase time and time of sale to fiat matter in tax calculations. But an unrealized capital gains tax has the potential to change all that should it also be made to apply to cryptoasset holdings.

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​​Cream Finance Suffers Another Exploit as Attacker Runs Away With USD 100M+

Ethereum (ETH)-powered decentralized finance (DeFi) project Cream Finance (CREAM) suffered another flash loan attack as the attacker reportedly stole more than USD 100m worth of tokens.

Blockchain analytics and security firm PeckShield flagged the attacker's address, while Cream finance confirmed that they "are investigating an exploit on C.R.E.A.M. v1 on Ethereum and will share updates as soon as they are available."

CREAM tanked following the news and, at 15:11 UTC, it trades at USD 111.61, dropping by almost 30% in an hour and a day.

"The hack is made possible due to a price manipulation bug in CREAM price oracle," PeckShield said, adding that the hacker is still swapping the stolen funds via ParaSwap and Uniswap platforms.

Just this past August, Cream Finance lost USD 25m in another flash loan attack.

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​​Why Crypto Needs To Be Regulated

Viktor Prokopenya is a London-based fintech investor and the Founder of VP Capital, an investment vehicle focused on the technology sector.


Could we live in a world without rules? In theory, yes - we can live with an absence of government, and indeed our early ancestors did so. At its extreme, this is called anarchy - a state of disorder and lawlessness.

In reality, humans have found that regulations are the building blocks of a harmonious society and are critical to development. We need structures and rules to promote a positive culture.

The Noble Prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom observed that when people have to manage shared resources such as land, fisheries, or water for irrigation, they spontaneously construct rules.

Indeed, through history, we have seen that every evolving industry goes through a process ending to a greater or lesser degree with regulation. The most regulated industries are those that have the potential to cause the most harm.

Take the case of the pharmaceutical industry - heavily regulated now, so that around the world, people can rely on affordable and safe drugs to protect their health. Before regulation, you had opportunistic conmen selling fraudulent cures to gullible members of the public.
Education is another example where regulation ensures the same high standards are upheld by different institutions, to engender trust across the sector. Food supply and hygiene is also heavily regulated, to safeguard a basic human need. In these industries and countless more, regulation has had positive benefits.

Currently, this debate is raging around crypto. Tesla CEO Elon Musk was recently asked whether the US government should be involved in regulating the crypto space. ‘It is not possible I think, to destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement,’ he said. ‘I would say, ‘Do nothing’.

​​Should We Let Facebook/Meta Rule The Metaverse Too?

Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has announced the company will change its name to Meta, saying the move reflects the fact the company is now much broader than just the social media platform (which will still be called Facebook).

The rebrand follows several months of intensifying discourse by Zuckerberg and the company more broadly on the metaverse – the idea of integrating real and digital worlds ever more seamlessly, using technologies such as virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR).

Zuckerberg said he hoped the metaverse will be a new ecosystem that will create millions of jobs for content creators.

But is this just a shallow PR exercise, with Zuckerberg trying to reset the Facebook brand after several scandal-ridden years, or is it a genuine bid to set the company on course for what he sees as the future of computing?

Oculus had risen to prominence with a lucrative Kickstarter campaign, and many of its backers were angry that their support for the “future of gaming” had been co-opted by Silicon Valley.

While gamers fretted that Facebook would give them VR versions of Farmville rather than the hardcore content they envisioned, cynics viewed the purchase as part of a spending spree after Facebook’s USD 16bn stock market launch, or simply Zuckerberg indulging a personal interest in gaming.

Under Facebook, Oculus has gone on to dominate the VR market with over 60% market share. That’s thanks to heavy cross-subsidisation from Facebook’s advertising business and a console-like approach with the mobile “Quest” VR headset.

​​Singapore to Invest in the Future with 'Strong Regulation' of Crypto

In a sign of increasing competition among crypto-friendly jurisdictions, Singapore aims to lure crypto businesses from across the world and is determined to develop “strong regulation” to ensure regulatory clarity and enforce compliance, according to Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

Instead of combating the spread of crypto companies, the Singaporean regulator prefers to put in place regulations allowing companies that meet the MAS’s requirements and address the identified risks to operate, he told Bloomberg.

“With crypto-based activities, it is basically an investment in a prospective future, the shape of which is not clear at this point,” the managing director was quoted as saying.

According to him, not getting "into this game" might leave Singapore behind, but now they can have a head start, and better understand its potential benefits as well as its risks.

Menon said that, taking into consideration Singapore’s reputation as a global wealth hub, the island nation had to bolster its safeguards to combat the risks related to illicit financial flows.

The country is “interested in developing crypto technology, understanding blockchain, smart contracts and preparing ourselves for a Web 3.0 world,” according to the regulator’s head.

Singapore’s stance on crypto has allowed the country to attract major businesses such as crypto exchanges Binance and Gemini, many of which have had rows with regulators from across the world.

About 170 firms have applied to the MAS for a Singaporean license, bringing the total of companies that seek to operate under the country’s Payment Services Act to some 400 since January 2020. This said, since the law’s entry into force only three crypto-focused businesses have received such licenses. Two applicants were rejected, and some 30 companies withdrew their applications after holding talks with the MAS.

While the Singaporean regulator has assigned additional resources to assess the rising number of applications, the managing director said the regulator is in no rush to review them, and its priority is to ensure that companies meet their requirements.

​​Pernicious Reporting Clause Irks US Crypto Industry as House Votes on Infra Bill

US Congress could finally approve or reject the much-maligned Infrastructure Bill today after the draft law was finally slated for a vote.

The ruling Democratic Party has a narrow eight-seat majority and will likely need a near-unanimous vote in favor with few or no abstentions for the measure to pass – with the Republican Party determined to derail the bill.

The draft law will be used to fund trillions of USD worth of public spending, but crypto advocates are concerned that key clauses in the bill unfairly target the crypto sector – chiefly the fact that the existing IRC Section 6050I clause of the tax code will be expanded to include the words “any digital asset.”

Introduced in 1984, Section 6050I calls upon businesses and individuals receiving cash or a wired bank transfer worth over USD 10,000 to file a form to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and report the sender’s personal data – including their name, address, and social security number.

Per the IRS’ own terminology, the clause “requires that any person engaged in a trade or business that receives cash in excess of USD 10,000 in a single transaction or in related transactions must file Form 8300.”

This would essentially force decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto users to disclose key aspects of their activities or risk the ire of the tax authorities.

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​​Mt. Gox Payouts Nearing, But Is the Market Ready for It?

Following recent news that creditors after the infamous collapse of the bitcoin (BTC) exchange Mt. Gox can finally look forward to some payouts, questions reemerged about whether the market can absorb potential selling from such a large distribution of coins.

According to a translated version of a letter from the Japanese lawyer and trustee for the now-bankrupt exchange, Nobuaki Kobayashi, “approximately 99%” of creditors voted in favor of a proposal on how the distributions should occur. The proposal has now also been confirmed by the court, but no specific timeframe has yet been given on when the funds held by the trustee can be released.

According to documents filed with the court, the Japanese trustee holds a trove of BTC 141,686 (USD 8.8bn, at the time of writing). This comes in addition to a significant amount of bitcoin cash (BCH) and fiat currency also held by the trustee, waiting to be distributed to creditors.

For comparison, the amount of BTC held by the trustee is even more than MicroStrategy’s entire bitcoin holdings, which after the company’s last disclosed purchase stood at 114,042 BTC.

As anyone can imagine, new supply of such a massive amount of BTC to the market is no minor event (at the time of writing, the 24-hour BTC trading volume on exchanges stands at around USD 35.7bn). The potential for a distribution of coins at this magnitude to move markets is there, which explains the keen interest among bitcoin traders in the Mt. Gox case.

And although no specific date has yet been announced for when the distributions will be made, observers say that the date – once it becomes known – will be an important one for all bitcoin investors to watch.

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