On Monday, March 23, 2026, Trump stated that the United States and Iran were engaged in “very strong” and “productive” talks aimed at a “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the ongoing Middle East war, now in its fourth week. He said Jared Kushner (his son-in-law and advisor) and Steve Witkoff (his Middle East special envoy) led the U.S. side in negotiations that began over the weekend, involving an unnamed “respected” or “top” Iranian leader (but not the supreme leader). Trump added that planned U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants (threatened as retaliation for Iran’s actions, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz) were postponed for five days to allow diplomacy to proceed, with further talks expected to continue. He claimed Washington was pressing Iran to halt nuclear enrichment, surrender uranium stockpiles, and address other points (with preventing nuclear weapons as the top priority), and suggested a deal could be reached in days if productive.

However, Iran publicly denied that any negotiations (direct or indirect) were taking place, with its foreign ministry and state media rejecting Trump’s claims as inaccurate or a ploy to manipulate markets and buy time for military action. Tehran insisted no such talks occurred and maintained its positions unchanged.

Nevertheless, oil prices reacted sharply to Trump’s initial announcement: Brent crude futures fell as much as 14% intraday (reaching around $96 per barrel at one point), reflecting eased fears of further escalation and potential disruptions to global supplies, though prices later pared some losses after Iran’s denial.

Now, what is the likelihood of Trump lying? Let’s look at the upside and downside for Trump:

Upside:

—Oil prices go down, if only temporarily; this is exactly what happened
—An undeniable opportunity to make tremendous profits for insiders, including Trump and his family; this is certainly not beyond him
—More time to prepare for military action while maintaining pressure on Iran, without any ceasefire from Israel in the meantime

Downside:

—If he lied, prices will go back up after a short breather, but likely not higher than they would have been had he not lied
—Some people will claim that he is a liar, but most people are already convinced of that, so no big deal

In other words, there is very little, if any, downside for Trump, or at least that is how he sees the situation today.

Given the obvious imbalance between significant upside and very little downside, it is reasonable to conclude that Trump had a very strong incentive to lie and, in fact, lie he did.

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On March 24, 2001, the federal constitutional law on the text of the Russian National Anthem came into force.

Until the 17th century, state ceremonies in Russia featured Orthodox church hymns. During Peter I’s reign, “vivat chants” became common at celebrations, and in the 18th century, the European hymn Te Deum was used.

The first unofficial anthem of the Russian Empire appeared in 1791—Thunder of Victory, Resound! by Osip Kozlovsky, with lyrics by Gavrila Derzhavin.

In 1815, Russia adopted its first official anthem, The Prayer of the Russians (God Save the Tsar) by Vasily Zhukovsky, set to the melody of the British God Save the King. In 1833, Nicholas I commissioned composer Alexey Lvov to write a new melody for it. God Save the Tsar remained the empire’s anthem until March 1917.

After the February Revolution, The Russian Marseillaise (a revolutionary song by Pyotr Lavrov based on the French Marseillaise) was briefly used before being replaced in 1918 by The Internationale.

On January 1, 1944, the USSR introduced its new anthem, The Unbreakable Union of Freeborn Republics, composed by Alexander Alexandrov with lyrics by Sergey Mikhalkov and Gabriel Ureklyan (El-Registan).

Following the USSR’s collapse, Russia initially used the melody of Mikhail Glinka’s Patriotic Song as its anthem. In December 2000, a federal constitutional law approved a new anthem using Alexandrov’s Soviet-era music.

In early 2001, Vladimir Putin submitted a bill to the State Duma to establish the official text of the anthem. The Duma passed it on March 7, the Federation Council approved it on March 14, and Putin signed it into law on March 22, 2001. It took effect on March 24.

#TodayInHistory

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Trump’s Middle East Dead End (1)

By journalist Yury Podolyaka:

The war in the Middle East has been going on for over three weeks now, and not only is there no sign of the quick, crushing victory Trump and Netanyahu were counting on, but there’s a growing consensus that it’s the United States that will end up suffering the biggest losses—primarily in terms of reputation. And here’s the most important part: Trump will have no one to blame but himself. He’s the one who screwed up. He’s the one who walked right into the trap set by his “friend” Bibi Netanyahu.

So, it’s already clear that not only has the regime in Iran survived, but in the wake of the Epstein coalition’s inhumane bombing of schools and just about everything else, it has actually come out stronger. And many Iranian opposition figures have become disillusioned with the US in much the same way that, after the events of August 2020, many of Lukashenko’s opponents in Belarus became disillusioned with the country’s alternative political path.

Supporting the US—and bashing the government—is no longer trendy. Not because it’s dangerous, but because it’s frankly disgusting, even in the eyes of these former opposition figures themselves. And Mossad’s bet on stirring internal dissent in Iran—which the bloodsuckers Netanyahu and Trump considered their “Plan A,” as the American press reported just yesterday—has completely collapsed.

At the same time, a reinvigorated Iranian regime, having shed its earlier illusions (that it was even possible to negotiate with the ghouls in Tel Aviv and Washington), has bared its teeth and is biting back hard. And today, it is Iran—not the States—that is fully dictating the terms, not just to its neighbors (by controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to take out their key infrastructure), but to Trump himself. Even if he won’t say it outright, he’s essentially now following the course of Iran’s war plan.

And he can’t just jump off this train. There’s no decent way out in sight.

First, he can’t leave the region looking like a loser. That would instantly ruin everything for him. All his carefully laid plans for absorbing the Western Hemisphere would be shattered.

We’re already seeing a glimpse of this with Cuba. Not long ago, it seemed like Cuba’s days were numbered. But now… the country actually has a shot at navigating its way through without having to kneel before Trump. And it’s a real possibility.

Plus, on the home front, the Democrats are already busy chopping him into coleslaw.

And second, Trump can’t fight this war the way he wants. No local ground troops—no cannon fodder—willing to die by the thousands for Israel’s interests have materialized. He can’t simply bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, because Iran could retaliate against the local monarchies, which would immediately plunge the global economy into a catastrophic collapse—one that would not only sweep Trump away, but also the Republicans, for a long time to come. And the US simply doesn’t have the manpower to fight this war and achieve a decisive victory on its own.

So, this all adds up to a dead end for him, with far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world. And that’s what we’ll discuss in the next part

To be continued

#Yury_Podolyaka

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Trump’s Middle East Dead End (2): The Main Risks for the US

By journalist Yury Podolyaka:

So, as we established in the first part, Trump has hit a geopolitical and military dead end in Iran. With the need to deliver results by the end of April, no good way out is in sight. There’s a very high probability that Congress—right around that deadline—will refuse to authorize further use of US forces in the conflict, effectively putting a big, fat cross through “Dealer Donnie’s” military and political ambitions.

But if that were the only problem, it would be just half the trouble for the Americans. The main issue is that, as a result of Trump’s failure in Iran, the long-established, decades-old security system centered on Washington will finally be shattered. The system where the US decides which countries get to live in safety and which don’t.

The current war in the Middle East is a glaring exception to that rule. And it’s global in scale. Washington’s own allies and partners find themselves in the most vulnerable position; because of their support for the US (and Israel), they now face the threat of total destruction and ruin.

What’s more, the US has shown it can’t even defend the main base of its own Fifth Fleet. And the American soldiers who remain within range of Iranian missiles and drones are cowering in hiding, having no effect whatsoever on the course of the conflict.

Let me repeat: this hasn’t happened in a very, very long time. And it’s a striking, powerful image. It forces countries that once counted on the US as a guarantor of their own security—and not just in the Gulf region—to start thinking. To start thinking about what to do next and how to rebuild their defenses in a world that has drastically changed in just a few weeks.

The reputational damage to the US is immense and irreversible. Yet that reputation was the very foundation on which American geopolitical dominance was built.

The main negative outcome for the US, as these countries mull things over, will be a sharp drop in investment—both in the United States itself and in its defense industry. In other words, many countries will simply stop paying “tribute” for protection.

The second major consequence for Washington will be structural distortions in the global economy and a sharp rise in resistance to any subsequent American attempts to restore the shattered status quo. The cost of maintaining dominance over various parts of the world will skyrocket. And with the US’s ability to project power diminishing, the number of key nodes—the critical points in the global system whose control determines control over the world itself—that the US can actually manage will quickly shrink. This in turn will only accelerate the downward spiral into which US geopolitical influence is falling.

So, here’s the irony: Trump, by launching a war against Iran and planning to establish full control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz (and then, by destroying the Houthis in Yemen, over the exit from the Red Sea), has effectively lost it. What’s more, he’s lost it—even if only temporarily—to Iran. He’s achieved the exact opposite of what he intended: he’s strengthened his adversaries’ influence over those very critical chokepoints—the ones that are the whole prize in an era of a globalized economy.

To be continued

#Yury_Podolyaka

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"Who are they to lecture us on human rights..."

I give a standing ovation to the representative of China, Dominique Li, who delivered a short lesson in the UN Human Rights Council on who's who.

Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm with you 100%!!!

#Yury_Podolyaka

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War in the Middle East: March 23 roundup – a nonstop firehose of bizarre statements from Trump

By journalist Yury Podolyaka:

The other day he swore he wouldn't negotiate with Iran, even though the Iranians were asking him to. Then yesterday, with a completely straight face, he announced he'd already been conducting negotiations for several days. Clearly, he was 100% lying in at least one instance. But that said, you can't just dismiss all these statements as crazy or thoughtless. Some of them actually have a clear logic. Even so, his bluff clearly reeks of desperation. The desperation of a man who's seen things go off the rails and now has to keep the situation under control in real time.

Right now, every statement he makes has one goal: to calm the markets and minimize the economic fallout from his reckless move. And credit where it's due – by walking back his threats yesterday, he managed to bring oil prices back down to where they were before he issued his ultimatum to Iran.

At the same time, Trump and his cronies never miss a chance to cash in on all this bluster. Case in point: someone placed a $580 million bet on a sharp drop in oil prices just 15 minutes before Trump announced the start of peace talks with Iran. And… they won again (for what feels like the umpteenth time). Of course, exchange officials stated that no insider trading violations were found. So, perfectly legal.

Meanwhile, the Iranian side can barely keep up with debunking all of Trump's verbal diarrhea. Iran has flat-out denied that any talks with the US are taking place and reaffirmed the conditions under which it would be willing to make peace: the withdrawal of US troops from the region, security guarantees, and full compensation for the economic damage inflicted on the country. In other words, Trump's surrender – which he's certainly not going to agree to (at least not publicly).

On top of that, everyone is understandably on edge over Iran's promise that if its energy infrastructure is attacked, it won't just strike desalination plants in neighboring countries and oil fields but also the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant. That plant was built by South Korea not long ago, with its final unit entering commercial operation in September 2024.

All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of US media reports (citing Pentagon sources) that strikes on Iran are proceeding as planned, with no changes to the operational plans. Also still on track is the redeployment of two Marine Corps expeditionary units to the region aboard the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer amphibious warships. Likewise, if needed, they're set to be backed up by a US Navy carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln. And then there's the 82nd Airborne Division and US special operations forces, which – in an "unscheduled" move (meaning they canceled planned exercises) – are sitting on their duffel bags at full combat readiness.

The only awkward hiccup in all of this is the USS Gerald R. Ford being sidelined to Greece for repairs after a strange fire in its laundry room. Not that it couldn't return and rejoin the fight at any moment.

With all that said, I'd also keep in mind that last time around, all of Trump's talk about successful negotiations with Iran was just a cover operation and part of the preparations for a strike. There's a good chance this time will play out the same way.

Meanwhile, Iran, for its part, is projecting total resolve to keep fighting "until all its demands are met," but it could very well be bluffing too. Those who deal with Iranians know that for them, appearances are everything, but deep down, they're always realists. So I'm absolutely convinced that their "principled stance" in public can easily go hand in hand with pragmatism on the ground. And their "absolute resolve to fight" is just an attempt to strengthen their negotiating position. Because talks – and I'm equally convinced of this – are already underway, even if through intermediaries.

#Yury_Podolyaka

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March 25, 1238–beginning of the siege of Kozelsk.

On March 25, 1238, the small city of Kozelsk, with only 4,000 inhabitants and serving as the capital of a minor principality under the nominal rule of 12-year-old Prince Vasily Titovich, began a valiant seven-week siege against the formidable Mongol-Tatar forces led by Batu Khan and his top commander Subutai.

While other Russian cities such as Ryazan, Vladimir, Moscow, and Torzhok fell within days, Kozelsk’s defenders held out for nearly two months. The disunited nature of the Russian principalities meant that only local militias and volunteer forces could resist the invaders. Facing an army estimated at 20,000 to 30,000 warriors, the citizens of Kozelsk mounted a staunch defense. They repelled multiple assaults and even launched a daring sortie that successfully disabled several Mongol siege engines.

As chroniclers record, the people of Kozelsk declared that they would rather sacrifice their lives than surrender, embodying an unwavering determination to protect their city.

The siege ended when Batu Khan’s Mongol forces, after a prolonged assault finally breached Kozelsk’s defenses. The Mongols captured Kozelsk and inflicted heavy casualties, marking the fall of the town. However, the prolonged defense of Kozelsk significantly delayed the Mongol advance into other parts of Russia, leaving a legacy of heroic resistance.

Centuries later, Kozelsk’s heroic defense still inspires. In 1777, Empress Catherine II honored the city with a special coat of arms, and in December 2009, the President of Russia awarded Kozelsk the title “City of Military Glory.” This anniversary is a tribute to the enduring spirit of a people who defied overwhelming odds.

#TodayInHistory

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