End of the Sand War, until a further notice.

Donald Trump's "Special Military Operation" appears to be over. He naturally declared that the goals are reached, Iranian military is defeated, the Strait of Hormuz is now 100% open, all that jazz. The "Brent" is going down in price, the global markets feel optimistic for once, and the Iranian servicemen stationed at the Iranian island of Kharg have a chance to safely return home and resume their peaceful lives.

All of this could happen if America's greatest ally (tm) can restrain itself from brutalizing Lebanon. Supposedly Trump told Bibi to stop provoking Hezbollah, which is being directly supported by Iran. If - big if - the Greatest Ally can indeed stop being a problem - there is a chance the entire Gulf Region can start the repairs. However, since there were cases of diplomacy being used as a cover for more attacks - I remain suspicious. I doubt the Iranian soldiers on Kharg will see their homes any time soon. Hopefully I am wrong.

#Iran #Israel #USA #peace

The Strait of Hormuz is open (sort of)

After 66 days of the most amazing counter-blockade performed by the biggest navy on this planet - the meme waterway is open again. Kind of. The details remain murky, but some cargo ships and oil tankers are currently passing the Strait of Hormuz. Not in the same amount that it used to be before the Donald Trump's "Special Military Operation", but still - it's something at least.

The insurance on the shipping will remain high for a while I suppose, for many reasons.

The US navy mostly left the area to the Gulf of Oman - aside from some warships tasked to remove the sea mines.

Iran is selling the oil again - which made the "Brent" fall to $83 per barrel. It won't save the world's economy right away - the inflicted damage is too big, and the world will suffer.

If nothing goes wrong - the economic suffering will be slightly less horrible in the near future.

#USA #Iran #Israel #peace #shipping

With friends like this...

I am willing to give Donald Trump a benefit of the doubt this one time, based on my guess that he is dumb enough to trust Bibi in the first place.

I think he was led to believe that he can win the war with Iran. Trump said around a year ago that he wants to do good deeds, and go to Heaven. If he really meant that - then he was opened for a manipulation.

Now, Bibi. Israel vs Persia. The whole "Purim" thing those Israelis are so obsessed about. Bibi tricked Trump into a war vs Iran. Israel more or less tells Pentagon what to do. But suddenly - Trump remembers that he is a politician, and he must be loved by his voters.

Trump agrees on peace. Both he and Iran win. Except for Bibi. And what does he do? He keeps attacking Lebanon, knowing that it will cancel the peace, and it will drag the USA back into the war vs Iran.

They are obsessed with Purim. They just can't stop themselves. Even if the world has to burn. And Trump will be blamed for it.

#war #USA #Iran #Israel #Bibi #Trump

Back to square one

The Strait of Hormuz is stalled once again. After some initial successes on the last week - things happened, shots were fired, missiles were launched, threats were made, and now there are about 20 to 30 ships that pass in that meme waterway daily. Down from 150 to 200 ships that used to pass there before Donald Trump's "Special Military Operation".

One can assume that Bibi and his mates were displeased how Donald Trump tried to more or less enforce the peace deal on Israel and Iran via the memorandum of understanding - which was even "signed" virtually between the parties.

Some say that Iran shouldn't be allowed to win and get around $200 billions back from the frozen funds. Iranians can say a lot of words about the Judeo-Christian forces too. The peace in the Middle East was very close, and then it evaporated like a puddle on a hot summer day of 2026 somewhere in western Europe.

This is all so tiresome.

#Shipping #Iran #Israel #USA

The most ridiculous Sand War so far.

The latest Sand War didn't end in a nuclear war - like a certain country hoped - but some serious damage was done here and there. Currently the Strait of Hormuz is half-open, and the USA demand to open the waterway fully.

I will allow myself some optimism and try to predict the future US-Iranian deal.

Trump wants to keep his power, and Iran wants to repair the damages. Both sides can make an openly secret deal of staying in their own corners. The USA will return the frozen Iranian money (via US goods) to Iran. Iran will declare that they won't make nukes, but they'll keep their missile industry. Bibi and his mates will try their hardest to reignite the war by provoking Iran. Trump, as much as he wants to keep Bibi happy, will have to remind Bibi that the times have changed, and the USA will have to cut off the weapons supply to Israel. No more bombs to bomb Lebanon.

And now - I wait. I am curious what will "rejected" Israel do in the future.

#Iran #Israel #USA #peace

Orange wrecking ball

Donald Trump is the main protagonist of his own life. Nearly every day he wakes up, and chooses violence. The rest of the humanity has to adapt to Donald Trump, instead of the other way around. In a way - this is fascinating.

Basically, he caused a serious disruption in the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, during his remarks on the 2nd day of the summit, delivered jointly with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran is over. He ordered a halt to trade with Spain. He renewed his demands that the USA must control Greenland. Only the Turkish president Erdogan heard good news that day: not only Turkey can keep the Russian S-400s - Turkey also can buy F35s, without sanctions.

Contrary to my hopes - Trump decided to continue the Sand War against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is mostly closed, the insurance is up again, the traffic is down to about 35 ships, most of which risk getting hit en-route.

This is all so tiresome.

#USA #Iran #NATO #Turkey #Spain

Jobless Iranian fishermen

The USA are actively helping the IRGC to hire as many Iranians as possible. No, really - has the IRGC ever had easier time finding tens of thousands of angry Iranian men who hate the USA as much as they do today?

The south of Iran - the coastal area - is getting hit by the US air force. Officially they are hitting the IRGC navy still docked in ports. In reality - the IRGC keeps their speed boats hidden in land, underground. The only "Iranian fast attack boats" the US air force can hit today are the civilian vessels, used by the Iranian fishermen. After each US air strike - more Iranian fishermen become jobless. And the IRGC is open for hiring them - I am certain. Having a stable job means money, and their families need money right now more than ever before.

On a more serious note - all those air strikes against the fishing boats will cause a hunger in the coastal areas of Iran, which makes the local Iranians even more anti-American than before.

#Iran #fishing #USA #airstrikes

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Again.

The Iranian and US navies are duking it out once again in the Strait of Hormuz. Those who betted on "nothing ever happens" won again.

Over the past several days, both sides used violence: the US chair force hit the Iranian ports. Iran hit the American allies - the UAE tankers in this case - somewhere in the region. Iran hit other Gulf States too, which forced those countries to spend more of their precious anti-missile missiles.

Things were so clown-tier that Donald Trump even announced - initially at least - that the USA will take 20% toll for the passing through the waterway. Later he said that there won't be any tolls since the Gulf States promised him money via investments.

In conclusion - things are back to "normal". Ships can't get through, the "Brent" is getting expensive. Everyone is suffering. How joyous.

#Iran #USA #shipping #crisis

The dry Iranian rivers

The Sand War continues. The USA and Iran are exchanging the attacks. Iran is aiming at the regional US allies, and the USA are destroying targets within Iran.

It appears, however, that the US military high command, or possibly Donald Trump himself, thought that the bridges and rivers in Iran are just the same as in New York, and that hitting them is some sort of master stroke. Guided munitions were spent to destroy bridges all over Iran's countryside during the last few weeks.

Apparently the USA can't comprehend that Iran is an arid country, and that many rivers are seasonal, as in they flow for a month a year, sometimes less than that.

All the Iranians had to do was just drive on the dry river bed. In the meantime the USA handed Iran the justification to hit infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, something they avoided until now.

I know the USA has the "infinite money glitch", but they can't fight like this forever. The USA can't print missiles like paper money.

#USA #Iran #bridges

The USA declared a ceasefire - Brent went down in price.

The US Ambassador to the UN Mike Walz confirmed that Donald Trump ordered a ceasefire to "give diplomacy some space". This decision was made on the advice of Admiral Brad Cooper, the supreme commander of US forces in the Middle East, who noted that the military campaign had reached its strategic limits.

The Omani delegations held a series of intensive meetings in Iran. They are attempting to develop a preliminary transit plan through the Strait of Hormuz.

A joint diplomatic initiative of Pakistan and Qatar are trying to fully restore the original 60-day temporary ceasefire.

While Iran officially doesn't recognize this pause of hostilities, Iran still insists on formalizing a system of maritime dues and monitoring of the strait. The USA demands less restrictive freedom of navigation for vessels from around the world.

My bet is on the market manipulations via the "insiders" in the White House - it happened before.

#USA #Iran #oil #market #Brent

Ukraine's attack on Iran's shipping

Ukraine used long-range drones to attack the anchored ships at the north of the Caspian sea. They were targeting the Russian ships, but an Iranian cargo ship "Anna" was hit as well. 1 sailor died, a few were injured. Iran has confirmed this information, and stated that Ukraine's attack "will not go unanswered".

Iran's Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, confirmed that the Anna was anchored 3 miles away from the mouth of the Volga River - waiting out a storm - when it was hit.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the attack as a "flagrant violation of the UN Charter." During diplomatic talks with Russia and the EU, Araghchi stated that this act "cannot go unanswered," and the Foreign Ministry warned that Ukraine's "dangerous adventurism" would have consequences.

My guess: Ukraine tried to tell Iran to stop supporting Russia. An Iranian died during this warning. I bet Iran will increase the support to Russia, bigly.

#Ukraine #Iran #Russia #shipping

The dual reality in the Strait of Hormuz

The Sand War continues.

Recently the CENTCOM stated that the meme waterway is clear of Iranian naval mines - about 100 mines were destroyed by US Navy servicemen.

The USA stated that any Iranian ship trying to lay new sea mines will be immediately destroyed.

The IRGC refused to confirm the US claims. The IRGC stated however that the strait is closed until the US completely lifts the naval blockade of Iranian ports and pays war reparations.

Iran has previously denied that it laid mines. The US intelligence insists that the IRGC did lay the mines quite hastily, using small vessels - thus Iran lacks precise data on the location of all the mines, making it impossible to confirm complete clearance.

In conclusion - the shipping companies currently hear 2 completely opposite statements about the Strait of Hormuz. The USA says it's clear and safe. Iran insists that no-one is allowed until they finish talks with Oman about details.

#USA #Iran #Oman

The Sand War continues.

The 6-month-long war between the USA and Iran has intensified over the past 48 hours.

The CENTCOM broke a month-long lull by launching "self-defense strikes" against missile launchers and naval assets on Larak Island and coastal towns.

Iran launched missiles and drones at the US military bases in the Middle East - in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq.

Long story short - the Sand War is at a hot phase again. Brent is $95 per barrel. Trump is making loud statements about a total annihilation of Iran again, and Iran refuses to negotiate at all.

Meanwhile the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the sailors stuck in there are probably experts of the Middle Eastern politics by now, given how much time they had to study how it works over there.

The new active phase of hostilities will ensure the prices will remain high. How joyous.

#Iran #USA #war #economy #events #Trump

The Sand War continues. The current escalation began after Iran launched 2 ballistic missile attacks against US Navy ships in the region over the course of 2 days. The US ships managed to - supposedly - dodge the missiles, and fire back - at the Iranian oil tankers.

5 Iran-linked crude oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island got hit. Namely: Kivik, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco, and Derya. It reduced the Iran's ability to sell oil, somewhat.

In response, Iran threatened to enforce a strict shipping exclusion zone. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 10 commercial ships per day.

Iran fired missiles at a key airbase in Jordan, used by the USA. Several missiles hit the targets. An A-10 lost a wing, and 8 F-15E were damaged as well.

Brent crude oil prices went over $100-per-barrel. Average gasoline prices in the US have surged to $4.22 per gallon - other regions of the planet suffer as well.

One can only hope this Sand War will end soon.

#Iran #USA #war #shipping #oil #crisis

A few more words about the Gaza Strip from Scott Ritter, who reminded that the situation in the Gaza Strip has layers:

Firstly he reminded that the nearby Muslim countries could have done much more for the "fellow Muslims" - instead most of them chose to do little or very little to help, with only Iranians - who are Persians, not Arabs - caring fully and loudly about the Palestinians.

Secondly - the Hamas is still alive and active in the Gaza Strip. Israel has yet to defeat them, despite the long military actions and the bombing runs. Scott Ritter assumes that the Palestinians shouldn't relax, now or in the future - he predicts that in the future they might be promised something nice about their situation, and then nobody will truly care about the Palestinians once again, aside from Iran.

Jared Kushner was mentioned, together with the Trump's administration. The overall prediction about their roles in doing anything good for the Palestinians boils down to "nothing ever happens".

#Israel #Gaza #USA #Iran

3 fuel trucks left 300 meters away from the RAF Fairford.

The locals called the police about the odd trucks. Army sent specialists, and they found IEDs on the trucks. The trucks had logos of Fuel2U, a commercial aviation fuel supplier. Fuel2U stated that all their trucks are in the London's depot. An investigation led to an arrest of 5 migrants near the airbase - supposed drivers of the trucks. The airfield hosts US Air Force aircraft used for conducting strikes against Iran. 4 B-1B Lancer strategic bombers are located there.

The UK believs the migrants worked for Iran, which used the English Channel migration routes to send weapons, explosives, and operatives into the UK. Supposedly Iran recruits migrants in the UK as well.

The supposed attack was stopped by a chance. The UK intelligence agencies, despite their vast counter-terrorism experience, failed to detect the plot beforehand. If Iran really was behind this failed attack - next time Iran might do it properly.

#Iran #UK #RAF #sabotage #migration

3 US CVs near the Strait of Hormuz, soon

The USA is sending the 3rd CV to the Middle East, bringing the total number of CVs to 3 by the end of November 2026. The U.S. Navy’s presence in the region will be thus represented by:

USS Theodore Roosevelt has departed its home port of San Diego and is currently en-route to the Middle East. It is sailing alongside the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group. It will bring more jets and 2000 Marines.

USS George Washington has arrived in the region in mid-August to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been on an extended deployment.

USS George H.W. Bush is already deployed and actively operating in the Arabian Sea.

The CVs are operating in close proximity to the Strait of Hormuz for a while by now. To be exact, they are located in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, not too far from Iran, but far enough from Iranian coast. Their official job is to intercept the Iranian missiles and drones, and protect the civilian ships.

#USA #Iran #war

Iran-backed Iraqi militia had fun.

The Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an immediate investigation and arrests after the Iraqi militians drove over US and Israeli flags during the Sovereignty Day parades in Baghdad, related to the withdrawal of the NATO forces from Iraq on September 30, 2026.

Long story short - Iraq's govt promised arrests. Some men were arrested. Officially Iraq doesn't support such actions. In reality Iraq is being happy that the JudeoChristian military forces are finally out of the country, and the Iran-backed militias are making plans for the future. Hence the Hezbollah flags during the parades.

The situation looks similar to Afghanistan - back when the US left the country - except this time the local militias, supported by nearby Iran, openly declared to the Iraqi govt that they will keep doing whatever they want to do.

Other than that - it was a perfectly normal day in the Middle East.

#Iraq #USA #Iran #Israel

The Sand War continues.

The quick war against Iran made the Brent crude solidify at $100 per barrel, remaining roughly 30% above pre-war figures - before the whole Operation Epstein Fury began.

The oil is expensive due to the near-total halt of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - despite repeated statements from Donald Trump that everything is open.

Iran's counter-actions made the traffic slow, and Iran's own oil exports went from 1.7 million to 100,000 barrels per day - which makes the prices higher.

Meanwhile Donald Trump ignores the main reason of the current fuel prices, and blames the blue states and Ukraine.

I wish this Sand War would end already - if the waterway remains closed, the prices on everything will only get higher.

#USA #Iran #war #oil #economy #shipping #Trump #politics

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed

The operation "Epstein's Fury" continues. 2 cargo ships sank in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. The price of the crude oil remains high, as well as the shipping insurance costs world-wide.

GFS Pride - a Singapore-flagged container ship carrying 2,500 containers - sank over some time after getting hit by either a missile or a sea mine. The crew survived.

Cape Dao - an Antigua and Barbuda-flagged container ship sank in the same area. It started sinking on September 23, after getting hit.

Iran insists that the cargo ships hit the sea mines. The shipping companies report that the ships sank from "unknown projectiles".

The US navy is present in the region, but given that the cargo ships continue to sink - the US navy seemingly can't stop Iran from controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

A reminder that the waterway was 100% free for the shipping back in 2025.

#USA #Iran #shipping #crisis