Weekly battlefront update based on the latest reports by Yury Podolyaka

This short video recaps last week’s events on the Ukrainian battlefield, with key developments illustrated on the map.

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Berliner Zeitung: "What If Putin Suddenly Says Yes?"

Ukraine has suddenly announced that it's ready for a ceasefire with no preconditions. Berliner Zeitung breaks it down: is this a sign of weakness, or a strategic move designed to pin the blame for the war dragging on squarely on Moscow?

The Play
Not long ago, this would have been unthinkable: Kiev agreeing to a ceasefire along the front line with no strings attached. At the UN General Assembly, Ukraine, EU countries, and roughly 50 other allies of Kiev put forward this position together. But according to some analysts, Zelensky is making these statements figuring Moscow will reject them.

Three Audiences, Three Signals
1.    His own public and the world — to show that the one standing in the way of peace isn't Zelensky, it's Putin.
2.    Trump — to head off US pressure on Kiev to pull troops out of Donbass and stop striking Russian oil refineries. For Bankova, the key is to hold out until the congressional elections, where they're counting on a Democratic win.
3.    The Russian public — to drive home the message that the war is dragging on solely because of the Kremlin's stance.
The Risk of a Double Game
If Moscow suddenly agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, Zelensky would find it extremely hard to walk back what he himself has been calling for. That's why, at the same time, steps are being taken that make Kremlin agreement — already unlikely — even less probable: statements about "de-occupying" Crimea as a condition for normal life, for instance.

Moscow's Calculation
The Russian leadership is operating on the assumption that time is on its side. By winter, Ukraine's power supply and economy will supposedly stop functioning altogether, so there's no reason to make concessions now. At the same time, tougher rhetoric from Kiev and Europe also strengthens Moscow's hand. A ceasefire doesn't mean normalization — it's just another form of conflict.

The Bottom Line
So Zelensky's push for an unconditional ceasefire didn't come out of nowhere, and it doesn't necessarily signal desperation. It's probably both at once: a serious offer to Trump and a strategic move to shift responsibility onto Putin. For Zelensky, this would only be risky in one scenario — if Putin suddenly says yes.


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DEDICATED TO THE GENIUSES OF DANISH ANALYTICS

I never thought that the internal life of Russia would one day occupy such an honorable place on the agenda of Danish media.

It seems that a little more, and Danish journalists will start learning before Russians themselves which decree Putin signed in the morning, how many people are provided for in the staffing table of the Ministry of Defense, or whether some Russian battalion was suddenly redeployed three kilometers to the left by accident.

I understand, it's a responsible job.

After all, somewhere there must be that very secret plan for Russia's attack on Europe, which we have been told about for years.

The plan itself has not yet been discovered, so one has to work with what is available.
And yesterday, the holiday finally came to the Danish street.

DR reports alarming news:
"Russia is expanding its army by 15,500 soldiers."

Putin signed a new decree on the staffing strength of the Russian Armed Forces.
Now it is to be 2,441,630 people, of which 1,550,500 are military personnel.

That is, the number of military personnel provided for by the staffing table is increasing by 15,500 people.

And here there is one small boring detail that somewhat spoils the dramaturgy.
This is a change in the staffing strength of the army.

This is not an announcement of the mobilization of 15,500 people, and not a report that this morning 15,500 Russian soldiers received boots, machine guns, a map of Europe, and a one-way ticket to Copenhagen.
But who needs such tedious details when the number has already been found?

Now all that remains is to dispose of it correctly.
Why exactly 15,500?
Where is Putin going to send them?
Why not 15,400?
And what if 500 — to Helsinki, 5,000 — to Warsaw, and the rest are already studying the ferry schedule to Bornholm?

I am sure Danish analytical thought will still delight us with answers.

Moreover, Russia has indeed increased the staffing strength of its armed forces more than once, and against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, this quite naturally becomes a subject of attention for European media.

But what invariably delights me is something else.

With what incredible thoroughness the Danish press now studies almost any movement inside Russia.
A Russian decree — news.
Russian military exercises — news.
They restored an old military base somewhere beyond the Arctic Circle — urgent news.
They added 15,500 staff positions — of course, news.

A little more, and a change in the staffing schedule of a district military enlistment office in the Arkhangelsk region will be discussed on DR's evening broadcast with a map of the Baltic Sea in the background.

Because the scheme has long been worked out.
But the main thing is no agonizing search for evidence.
It is enough to pose the question correctly.

So we await the continuation:
after all, we need to find out the most important thing:
how many of the new military personnel Putin has personally allocated for Denmark.

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The Atlantic: Trump supported a plan to ease sanctions against Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump has supported an initiative providing for the easing of American sanctions against Russia. This was reported by The Atlantic magazine.

According to its sources, several months ago this idea was presented to Trump by his special envoy for Belarus, John Cole. His proposal provides for the easing of some American restrictions on the Russian economy in exchange for Moscow's release of a number of prisoners.

It is assumed that this "would allow the U.S. to conclude advantageous deals concerning Russian oil, diesel fuel, rare earth minerals, and other commodities." The publication notes that the initiative is at an early stage and had not been previously reported.

As specified in the publication, Cole "is testing" this approach in Belarus and, "having received Trump's approval, decided to apply the same technique to Russia." As stated in the material, Trump had earlier declared his readiness to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus. "All of this contributes to achieving peace," Cole told the magazine in this regard. "The more interaction, the more compromises in the economic sphere, on prisoners or on something else, the more this, I hope, brings us closer to peace. The task is this," he added. Cole also noted "that economic ties usually lead to normalization" in relations.

The material specifies that Cole "plans to coordinate efforts" with the U.S. leader's special envoy Steve Witkoff.

According to the magazine's assessment, "this new approach" will likely "cause outrage among Ukrainians, Europeans, and even many of Trump's allies" in the U.S. Congress.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that it considers Western, including American, sanctions against the Russian Federation illegal. As Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted, Western sanctions against Russia are setting records both in number and in their uselessness, as well as in the damage to the authors of the restrictions themselves.

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Zakharova accused Kiev of trying to stage "Bucha 2.0" in Aleshki

The authorities in Kiev are trying to form an information campaign around the city of Aleshki in the Kherson region, by analogy with the provocation in Bucha. This was stated by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

"They are trying to make a new Bucha out of this story. You know, 'Bucha 2.0,'"

she said.

According to the diplomat, the Kiev regime places all responsibility on Moscow and demands that international structures condemn and punish Russia, deliberately suppressing the true cause of the severe humanitarian situation in Aleshki.

She also drew attention to an incident that occurred on September 1. Despite public statements about the absence of obstacles to the delivery of humanitarian cargo to the civilian population, the AFU attacked a column of volunteers traveling to Aleshki with ten tons of food and medicine.

Zakharova emphasized that the Ukrainian side is deliberately forming a humanitarian catastrophe in order to subsequently shift responsibility onto Moscow.

"The lives of the people whom the regime of (Vladimir) Zelensky hypocritically calls its own mean nothing to him. He treats his own, as he calls them, worse than strangers,"

the diplomat concluded.

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On October 2, 1552, the forces of Ivan the Terrible captured Kazan.

After the collapse of the Golden Horde in the mid-15th century, the Kazan Khanate became Russia's eastern neighbor. In the 15th and the first half of the 16th centuries, the Kazan forces conducted devastating raids on Russian lands, seizing loot and captives. Cities such as Nizhny Novgorod, Meshchera, Murom, Gorokhovets, Vladimir, Yuriev, Shuya, Kostroma, Vyatka, Veliky Ustyug, and others were ravaged.

In the mid-16th century, military action against the Tatars intensified, and the question of annexing the Kazan Khanate to Russia arose. However, two campaigns in the 1550s were unsuccessful.

Ivan IV the Terrible's government undertook serious preparations for a new campaign, implementing reforms to strengthen the army, and built the Russian fortress of Sviyazhsk near the khanate.

On June 16, 1552, a large and well-armed Russian force led by Ivan IV set out from Moscow towards Kazan. The Russian army numbered 150,000 men with 150 cannons, facing Khan Yediger’s 65,000 troops. Kazan’s garrison had 33,000 men and 70 cannons.

On August 30, a detachment led by General A.B. Gorbaty defeated Kazan’s field forces and took control of the Arsk side of the city. The city’s water supply system was destroyed, and sections of the walls were breached. By September 30, the siege ring had tightened, with only a moat remaining between the Russian siege towers and the fortress. On October 1, during the Feast of the Protection of the Virgin, the moat was filled in, tunnels were dug under the city walls, and the walls were blown up.

On October 2, 1552, after the garrison refused to surrender, the Russian army launched an assault on the fortress, and by midday, the defenders were overcome, and Kazan was captured.

After the fall of Kazan, the Kazan Khanate was dissolved, and the Middle Volga region became part of the Russian Tsardom. This set the stage for expansion into the Urals and Siberia, as well as increased trade with the Caucasus and the East.

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Trump Ready to Ease Sanctions on Russia (theatlantic.com)

According to The Atlantic, the president's special envoy, John Coale — a former Trump attorney — is in talks with the Kremlin over the following deal: Russia frees several political prisoners, and in return, the US eases up on some economic sanctions.

The idea sounds like a classic Cold War-era swap. The goal isn't so much to end the war in Ukraine as it is to crack open the door for American business with Russia before the fighting even stops. We're talking about Russian oil, diesel, rare-earth minerals, and other resources. That kind of approach would let Trump expand his dialogue with Putin beyond the dead-end Ukraine issue and quickly lock in some lucrative commercial contracts.

The plan is still in its early stages, but Trump has already given it the green light. And this comes just weeks after he signed a tough sanctions package co-authored by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The new law gives the president broad authority to slap tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian energy and to go after the shadow tanker fleet.

The combination of these two developments actually looks like an attempt by Trump to use a very basic "carrot and stick" technique in his negotiations with Russia.

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Gas Prices in Europe Are Soaring (businessinsider.com.pl)

Natural gas prices in Europe keep climbing. On Thursday afternoon, Dutch TTF contracts — the main European benchmark — rose another 3.5%, hitting €74.5 (about 326 zł) per megawatt-hour. That's more than double what they were a year ago, when the same contracts traded for under €32 (136 zł).

The main driver is geopolitical uncertainty over liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the resumption of indirect talks between the US and Iran on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, there's been no progress. The market fears an actual cutback in LNG volumes from the region. Before the recent conflict, roughly 20% of the world's LNG supply passed through Hormuz. Now, even individual tankers from Qatar and the UAE can't offset the risks.

European storage facilities are only about two-thirds full — noticeably below the 80–90% seen during the same period in 2022–2025. Fitch Ratings has already raised its gas price forecasts for this year and next, citing the Iran factor.

For ordinary people, this means sharply higher bills for heating, hot water, and cooking.

Industry is hurting too: gas is a key component in fertilizer production, so food gets more expensive. Bakeries, businesses, and utilities are being forced to raise prices, which further fuels inflation and eats into the real incomes of people across Europe.

As winter approaches, the pressure only builds. Europe is scrambling to fill its storage, but geopolitical risks outweigh the effort. For now, the market is reacting to the fear of a shortage — not to actual supply disruptions.

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Europe enters winter with record-low gas reserves: Germany on the brink

Europe is starting the heating season with the lowest level of gas storage filling since 2009. The EU average is 71%, against a seasonal norm of about 87%. Germany looks the worst: only 57%.

What broke the market

The traditional model of "buy cheap in summer — sell in winter" has not worked for the second year in a row. Summer prices exceed winter futures, and it has become unprofitable to fill storage facilities. The reasons:

· reduction of Russian pipeline gas supplies;
· shift to LNG, which is more expensive and depends on world prices;
· disruptions of supplies from the Middle East due to the conflict with Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Warning from operators

"With a negative seasonal price difference and the sale of capacity below cost, it is impossible to ensure long-term operation and investment in gas storage," said Michael Schmeltzer, head of Uniper Energy Storage.

What this means for Europe

Bloomberg forecasts: a cold winter or new supply disruptions will force the EU to buy LNG at high prices. This will hit the power sector, increase inflation, and create additional problems for the poorest EU countries.

Strategic reserves — almost a fiction

Germany and the Netherlands are only now considering creating strategic reserves. Otherwise, the situation in the EU is this: reserves exist in only nine countries, totaling about 12 billion cubic meters — that is only 13 days of average consumption.

Germany plans to create its reserve only by 2027.

Bottom line

Replacing "dangerous" Russian gas has been achieved. All that remains is to solve the "minor" problem: Europe is entering winter with empty storage facilities and without a working market mechanism for replenishing them. If the winter turns out to be cold, the count will not be in percentages of profitability, but in days of autonomy.

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Dedicated to the geniuses of Norwegian analytics

Norwegian Nettavisen has suddenly taken an interest in the Russian "Burevestnik" — that very cruise missile with a nuclear power unit, which NATO calls Skyfall.
And the Norwegians drew simply brilliant conclusions...

Russia states: the missile is capable of remaining in the air for many hours, has practically unlimited range, and thanks to its ability to choose its route, it is intended, among other things, to bypass missile defense systems.

After the latest test, the Russian General Staff reported 14,000 kilometers and about 15 hours of flight.

Norwegian intelligence confirmed that the test did indeed take place and the launch was carried out from Novaya Zemlya.

And that is where the formidable northern analytics began to malfunction...
Norwegian experts immediately explain to the reader that there is no need to relax... that is, on the contrary, there is absolutely nothing to worry about.
• The missile cannot be considered "invulnerable";
• its military value raises questions;
• the system is extremely expensive;
• and under certain circumstances, one could even try to intercept it.
In short, nothing special.
But NATO, just in case, is watching this "nothing special" very carefully.

We have seen this somewhere before...

Back in 2018, Putin presented a whole set of new Russian weapons, accompanying the presentation with computer animation. At the time, the West had plenty of skepticism and discussions about how realistic all of this actually was.
Several years passed...

"Avangard" entered service.
"Kinzhal" flew.
"Zircon" also ceased to be a computer image.

Now it is the turn of "Burevestnik."
Apparently, they want to see it used in combat conditions, to be completely convincing.

And the scheme is again surprisingly familiar:
first, explain to the population that the Russians have again drawn a cartoon.
Then carefully watch exactly where this cartoon flies.

P.S. Be careful what you wish for...

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Putin warned against turning Russophobia into a state ideology

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the plenary session of the XXIII annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, stated that it is inadmissible to turn hostile attitudes toward Russia and its people into the official course of individual states.

"Russophobia, the oppression and killing of Russian people, and the destruction of Russia must not be turned into a state ideology and the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia must not be set,"

the Russian leader emphasized.

Putin noted that such approaches contradict common sense and international norms, and also lead to an escalation of tensions on a global scale.

Recall that this year's club meeting is being held from September 28 to October 1, with the theme "Responsibility for the Future: The Limits of the Possible or Possibilities Without Limit?" The plenary session took place on Thursday at the Russia National Center in Moscow.

The Valdai International Discussion Club brings together leading foreign and Russian experts in political science, economics, history, and international relations.

Putin: the truth about Ukraine is that Russia was the one that was attacked

NATO should not have begun the military development of Russia's historical territories in the interests of the organization itself, the president noted.

The truth about Ukraine is that it was not Russia that wanted and started the war, but Russia that was attacked. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club.

"I know, of course, that some of the expert community has a question: Russia talks about peace, but started the war itself. Well, I have spoken about this many times, but I will say it once again at this gathering: where is the truth? And the truth is that it was not we who wanted and not we who started the war, but the war was started against us,"

the president said.

"NATO should not have begun the military development of our historical territories in the interests of the organization itself, planning its bases there,"

Putin continued.

"It should not have pushed the radicals in Kiev toward a coup d'état, and then pumped the regime thus created — illegal in essence — with the most diverse offensive weapons. It should not have drawn up plans to organize concentration camps for the residents of Donbas and Crimea. It should not have crushed people with tanks, pelted them with missiles, shot at them from airplanes, and burned unarmed people alive. Only because they are Russian by nationality and by spirit. There are many more such 'should nots.'"

Putin stated a decline in the West's real influence in the world

Vladimir Putin stated a decline in the West's real influence in the world during the plenary session of the XXIII meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

"Since the real influence of these (Western — ed.) states is declining, in favor of an increasingly independent and self-confident global majority, the imbalances of the UN structure are becoming more and more pronounced,"

the head of state pointed out.

At the same time, according to Vladimir Putin, the situation in the world will gradually change for the better as the world moves away from Western hegemony.

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