🛢 How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply 🇮🇷
With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill, approximately 18 million barrels of oil per day and a fifth of the world’s LNG supply are currently blocked.
The crisis was exacerbated by a historic shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant, the world’s largest, following an Iranian drone attack, while Saudi Arabia’s massive Ras Tanura refinery also suspended operations after being targeted.
These disruptions have caused European gas futures to nearly double and Brent crude to top $80 a barrel, with some analysts warning that a failure to restore Hormuz flows could quickly drive prices well over $100.
The fallout is particularly severe for Asian economies, which receive nearly 90% of the crude passing through the Strait, and for Europe, which must now compete for limited global LNG supplies to replenish its depleted inventories.
Within the region, Iraq has already begun shutting down major oil fields as storage tanks reach capacity, while the UAE’s critical Fujairah hub was damaged by drone debris.
With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill, approximately 18 million barrels of oil per day and a fifth of the world’s LNG supply are currently blocked.
The crisis was exacerbated by a historic shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant, the world’s largest, following an Iranian drone attack, while Saudi Arabia’s massive Ras Tanura refinery also suspended operations after being targeted.
These disruptions have caused European gas futures to nearly double and Brent crude to top $80 a barrel, with some analysts warning that a failure to restore Hormuz flows could quickly drive prices well over $100.
The fallout is particularly severe for Asian economies, which receive nearly 90% of the crude passing through the Strait, and for Europe, which must now compete for limited global LNG supplies to replenish its depleted inventories.
Within the region, Iraq has already begun shutting down major oil fields as storage tanks reach capacity, while the UAE’s critical Fujairah hub was damaged by drone debris.
🇮🇷 Iran War Oil Shock Threatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation 📈
The escalating conflict between the US and Iran threatens to trigger a massive energy shock, with Bloomberg Economics modeling a “severe scenario” where oil prices surge to $108 a barrel due to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a spike would add roughly 0.8 to 1.1 percentage points to global inflation, placing central banks in a precarious position: the Federal Reserve would be forced to choose between a president demanding rate cuts and an inflationary spiral that exceeds its 2% target.
While the US shale industry provides a hedge for domestic growth, Europe and the UK face a direct hit to GDP of up to 0.6%, compounded by the loss of Qatari natural gas.
Conversely, Russia emerges as a primary beneficiary, with high oil prices potentially eliminating its budget deficit and funding its ongoing war efforts.
The geopolitical fallout extends beyond energy prices, impacting the internal stability of the Islamic Republic and China’s struggling economy. China, already weakened by property collapses and US tariffs, loses its access to discounted Iranian oil, further stoking internal inflation.
Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is expected to consolidate power in response to military pressure, making any near-term “off-ramp” or popular uprising unlikely.
While the global economy is more energy-efficient today than during the 1970s oil crises, the combined weight of high debt, trade wars, and military escalation means that anything short of a swift ceasefire could stall the global disinflation trend and trigger a synchronized economic downturn.
Lots of uncertainty looming around👀
The escalating conflict between the US and Iran threatens to trigger a massive energy shock, with Bloomberg Economics modeling a “severe scenario” where oil prices surge to $108 a barrel due to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a spike would add roughly 0.8 to 1.1 percentage points to global inflation, placing central banks in a precarious position: the Federal Reserve would be forced to choose between a president demanding rate cuts and an inflationary spiral that exceeds its 2% target.
While the US shale industry provides a hedge for domestic growth, Europe and the UK face a direct hit to GDP of up to 0.6%, compounded by the loss of Qatari natural gas.
Conversely, Russia emerges as a primary beneficiary, with high oil prices potentially eliminating its budget deficit and funding its ongoing war efforts.
The geopolitical fallout extends beyond energy prices, impacting the internal stability of the Islamic Republic and China’s struggling economy. China, already weakened by property collapses and US tariffs, loses its access to discounted Iranian oil, further stoking internal inflation.
Within Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is expected to consolidate power in response to military pressure, making any near-term “off-ramp” or popular uprising unlikely.
While the global economy is more energy-efficient today than during the 1970s oil crises, the combined weight of high debt, trade wars, and military escalation means that anything short of a swift ceasefire could stall the global disinflation trend and trigger a synchronized economic downturn.
Lots of uncertainty looming around
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The initial market resilience following the Iran conflict evaporated on Tuesday, as a broad market retreat saw the S&P 500 drop 0.9% amid fears of a prolonged global economic shock.
The primary driver was a massive surge in energy prices; European natural gas prices skyrocketed over 21% on Tuesday following a production halt at a major Qatari LNG facility.
This followed a nearly 40% jump on Monday triggered by the near-total stoppage of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
These supply disruptions have reignited inflation anxieties, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4% in its largest one-day gain since last June.
While the broader market suffered, defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman rallied early in the week on expectations of increased military spending, though they eventually pulled back during Tuesday’s selloff.
Gold, a traditional safe haven, briefly neared its all-time high of $5,318 before sliding 3.5% on Tuesday as investors unwound leveraged positions to cover losses elsewhere.
With fuel costs punishing travel stocks and energy prices threatening a new inflationary cycle, investors are in a defensive position, closely monitoring whether the conflict remains contained or evolves into a structural energy shock similar to 2022.
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The 5min Investment Tidbit for your busy day
2 issues the Global Economy is dealing with:
📜 📈TARIFF UPDATE
- Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were challenged in court & withdrawn
- Reason: IEEPA does not explicitly authorise tariffs - that power sits with Congress
- Replaced with a more measured 10% tariff for 150 days under Section 122
- This is specifically for trade deficit correction - it's limited in scope & duration
- Bottom line: The tariff environment has moderated significantly from initial headlines
🇺🇸🇮🇷🛢 US-IRAN TENSIONS & OIL
- US & Israel conducted strikes on Iran; Iran halted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz
- The Strait handles ~20% of global oil trade - Airlines, Shipping & Manufacturing are most exposed
- A short-term oil price spike ≠ a sustained supply crisis - markets are drawing that distinction
What History tells us:
📈 MARKETS - RESILIENCE IN ACTION
- S&P 500 opened sharply lower after Iran news… then recovered to close virtually flat
- This is markets behaving rationally, not emotionally
- History backs this up:
→ Stocks were higher 1 year later in 73% of conflicts since WWII
→ Average market recovery after geopolitical shocks: ~3-6 weeks
→ S&P 500 median 6-month gain after major shocks: +5% or more
- Gold recent price increment shows its influence as a safe haven (as it is not issued by government or affected by company earnings)
🌍 GLOBAL ECONOMY - STILL GROWING
- IMF projects global growth at 3.3% for 2026
- Emerging markets: ~4.2% | Advanced economies: ~1.5%
- US recession probability: Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index are near 0 signalling a low recession probability
👉🏻 OUR DIRECTION TO YOU
- Both can create short-term swings. But for long-term investors, this is usually a test of discipline, not a signal to abandon the plan.
- Your portfolio is built for exactly this kind of environment
- Proper allocation across regions & asset classes is your buffer right now
💬 "Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than in the corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch
2 issues the Global Economy is dealing with:
📜 📈TARIFF UPDATE
- Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were challenged in court & withdrawn
- Reason: IEEPA does not explicitly authorise tariffs - that power sits with Congress
- Replaced with a more measured 10% tariff for 150 days under Section 122
- This is specifically for trade deficit correction - it's limited in scope & duration
- Bottom line: The tariff environment has moderated significantly from initial headlines
🇺🇸🇮🇷🛢 US-IRAN TENSIONS & OIL
- US & Israel conducted strikes on Iran; Iran halted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz
- The Strait handles ~20% of global oil trade - Airlines, Shipping & Manufacturing are most exposed
- A short-term oil price spike ≠ a sustained supply crisis - markets are drawing that distinction
What History tells us:
📈 MARKETS - RESILIENCE IN ACTION
- S&P 500 opened sharply lower after Iran news… then recovered to close virtually flat
- This is markets behaving rationally, not emotionally
- History backs this up:
→ Stocks were higher 1 year later in 73% of conflicts since WWII
→ Average market recovery after geopolitical shocks: ~3-6 weeks
→ S&P 500 median 6-month gain after major shocks: +5% or more
- Gold recent price increment shows its influence as a safe haven (as it is not issued by government or affected by company earnings)
🌍 GLOBAL ECONOMY - STILL GROWING
- IMF projects global growth at 3.3% for 2026
- Emerging markets: ~4.2% | Advanced economies: ~1.5%
- US recession probability: Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index are near 0 signalling a low recession probability
👉🏻 OUR DIRECTION TO YOU
- Both can create short-term swings. But for long-term investors, this is usually a test of discipline, not a signal to abandon the plan.
- Your portfolio is built for exactly this kind of environment
- Proper allocation across regions & asset classes is your buffer right now
💬 "Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than in the corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch
📊 Market Update | U.S. Jobs Data & What It Means for Your Portfolio 🇺🇸
💼 The Jobs Numbers 📉
The February 2026 jobs report came in softer than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate ticked upward, and job creation slowed, a meaningful shift after months of relative resilience. Adding to this, reports have shown that hiring announcements fell 56% in February, while corporate layoff announcements also declined sharply. On the surface, fewer layoffs sounds positive, but the collapse in new hiring tells a more cautious story: companies are in a holding pattern, neither expanding headcount nor actively cutting. That kind of paralysis typically reflects uncertainty at the executive level.
In plain terms: the U.S. labour market is stalling, not collapsing, but the direction of travel matters.
💸 Why This Matters to Your Portfolio 💰
Here's how a softening jobs market typically flows through to investments:
1. Interest Rate Cuts Are Now More Likely
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, price stability and full employment. With inflation having moderated significantly and employment now showing cracks, the case for rate cuts has strengthened considerably. Markets are increasingly pricing in at least 2–3 rate cuts in 2026, potentially beginning as early as mid-year if data continues to soften.
What this means for you: Falling rates are generally constructive for bond prices (they move inversely to yields), and historically supportive for equities, particularly growth and technology names that are more sensitive to the discount rate.
2. Fixed Income Becomes More Attractive
If you hold bonds or bond funds in your portfolio, lower rates ahead mean the value of existing holdings rises. Locking in current yields before cuts begin can be advantageous, something worth reviewing in your current allocation.
3. Equity Markets: A Mixed Picture
Lower rates support valuations, but a slowing economy cuts into corporate earnings. The net effect depends heavily on sector exposure:
Defensive sectors (healthcare, consumer staples, utilities) tend to hold up well in slowdowns
Financials may face near-term margin compression as rates fall
Real estate (REITs) historically benefit from a lower rate environment
4. USD May Weaken
Rate cuts typically soften a currency. A weaker USD can benefit internationally diversified portfolios, particularly those with exposure to Asian or European assets, something relevant given our positioning.
The February 2026 jobs report came in softer than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate ticked upward, and job creation slowed, a meaningful shift after months of relative resilience. Adding to this, reports have shown that hiring announcements fell 56% in February, while corporate layoff announcements also declined sharply. On the surface, fewer layoffs sounds positive, but the collapse in new hiring tells a more cautious story: companies are in a holding pattern, neither expanding headcount nor actively cutting. That kind of paralysis typically reflects uncertainty at the executive level.
In plain terms: the U.S. labour market is stalling, not collapsing, but the direction of travel matters.
Here's how a softening jobs market typically flows through to investments:
1. Interest Rate Cuts Are Now More Likely
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, price stability and full employment. With inflation having moderated significantly and employment now showing cracks, the case for rate cuts has strengthened considerably. Markets are increasingly pricing in at least 2–3 rate cuts in 2026, potentially beginning as early as mid-year if data continues to soften.
What this means for you: Falling rates are generally constructive for bond prices (they move inversely to yields), and historically supportive for equities, particularly growth and technology names that are more sensitive to the discount rate.
2. Fixed Income Becomes More Attractive
If you hold bonds or bond funds in your portfolio, lower rates ahead mean the value of existing holdings rises. Locking in current yields before cuts begin can be advantageous, something worth reviewing in your current allocation.
3. Equity Markets: A Mixed Picture
Lower rates support valuations, but a slowing economy cuts into corporate earnings. The net effect depends heavily on sector exposure:
Defensive sectors (healthcare, consumer staples, utilities) tend to hold up well in slowdowns
Financials may face near-term margin compression as rates fall
Real estate (REITs) historically benefit from a lower rate environment
4. USD May Weaken
Rate cuts typically soften a currency. A weaker USD can benefit internationally diversified portfolios, particularly those with exposure to Asian or European assets, something relevant given our positioning.
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us_jobs_infographic.html
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Did up an infographic to summarise whatever I've stated , in a more visually appealing form.
Do give this a read for a better idea : )🤑
Do give this a read for a better idea : )
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With the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and Israel also part of the broader equation, many of us might find ourselves wondering how these countries ended up in such deep conflict.
Did this situation simply emerge out of nowhere? Or is it the result of a long chain of historical events and geopolitical decisions that have been unfolding for decades?
This video provides a comprehensive breakdown of the historical context and key moments that have shaped the current situation. Thought it would be a worthwhile watch for anyone looking to deepen their understanding and broaden their general knowledge.
Clear explanation in just 18 mins , highly recommended to watch
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YouTube
Why Iran and Israel Are Now At War — The Full Story
In 1948 Iran and Israel were quiet allies.
Today they are in open war.
To understand how we got here you have to go back over a century — to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the birth of Israel, a CIA coup, a revolution that changed everything, decades…
Today they are in open war.
To understand how we got here you have to go back over a century — to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the birth of Israel, a CIA coup, a revolution that changed everything, decades…
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, remains at 3.50% - 3.75%.
From 1 April 2026, the card will earn up to 8 mpd for cardholders who maintain a S$50,000 average daily balance (ADB) in a HSBC Everyday Global Account (EGA). And even if you aren’t inclined to do so, HSBC is permanently restoring bonuses for travel and contactless spending.
https://milelion.com/2026/03/16/wow-hsbc-revolution-enhances-earn-rate-to-8-mpd-permanently-restores-travel-and-contactless-bonuses/
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The Milelion
Wow: HSBC Revolution enhances earn rate to 8 mpd, permanently restores travel and contactless bonuses
From 1 April 2026, the HSBC Revolution will permanently restore bonuses for travel and contactless spend, and offer up to 8 mpd for EGA customers with a minimum ADB of S$50,000.
₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈
HSBC Everyday Global Account - Should you move your $50,000 here? 💸
Let’s break this down properly before anyone shifts money blindly.
Let’s break this down properly before anyone shifts money blindly.
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“This 1.65% interest, is it really that good?” ❓
No. It’s not a flat 1.65% on your full balance. It’s only on incremental balances.
Meaning if you already have $10k and you add another $10k, only the second $10k earns 1.65%. The original amount is still earning about 0.05%. Honestly quite MEH
So don’t misunderstand this as a high interest savings account.
“If I move $50,000 from UOB or OCBC into HSBC, do I get 1.65% on the full amount?”
Yes, if it qualifies as fresh funds and within the promo period.
But this is temporary. The promo ends 30 June 2026. After that, the rate goes back to about 0.05%.
So this is not something you park long term. It’s a short-term play.
“Is this better than leaving money in UOB One or OCBC 360?”
If your money is already hitting bonus tiers in UOB or OCBC, then no, it’s worse.
If your $50k is sitting above the cap and only earning base interest, then this could be slightly better for a few months.
So this only applies to excess cash that is not being optimised.
“What are people missing when they think this is good?”
First, it’s time limited. You only get this until June.
Second, the incremental structure means it’s not sustainable. You can’t keep earning this unless you keep adding fresh funds.
Third, after the promo, if you forget about it, your money drops to 0.05%.
Most people win a bit in the short term and then lose it back by being passive.
“What about the 8 mpd part, is that where the real value is?”
That’s actually the only USP and best part to me... compared to the interest.
If you spend $1,000 and get 8,000 miles, that could be worth roughly $120 to $160 monthly depending on how you value miles.
So this is more of a miles optimisation tool than a GOOD SAVINGS ACCOUNT
“So should I move my $50,000?”
Only if your $50k is currently earning low base interest, you are treating this as a short-term parking strategy, and you are disciplined enough to move it out after June.
Or if you just wanna have the 8mpd (and $50,000 is extra to you)
If not, don’t bother.
“What is the biggest mistake people will make?”
They will treat this as a set-and-forget high interest account.
It’s not. It’s a temporary promo with conditions.
If you don’t actively manage it, you end up with 0.05% without realising.
“How should I think about this overall?”
Use it for short-term liquidity or miles extraction if it fits your behaviour.
Do not rely on it for long-term cash management or returns.
The main thing is not to chase headline rates without understanding how they actually work.
No. It’s not a flat 1.65% on your full balance. It’s only on incremental balances.
Meaning if you already have $10k and you add another $10k, only the second $10k earns 1.65%. The original amount is still earning about 0.05%. Honestly quite MEH
So don’t misunderstand this as a high interest savings account.
“If I move $50,000 from UOB or OCBC into HSBC, do I get 1.65% on the full amount?”
Yes, if it qualifies as fresh funds and within the promo period.
But this is temporary. The promo ends 30 June 2026. After that, the rate goes back to about 0.05%.
So this is not something you park long term. It’s a short-term play.
“Is this better than leaving money in UOB One or OCBC 360?”
If your money is already hitting bonus tiers in UOB or OCBC, then no, it’s worse.
If your $50k is sitting above the cap and only earning base interest, then this could be slightly better for a few months.
So this only applies to excess cash that is not being optimised.
“What are people missing when they think this is good?”
First, it’s time limited. You only get this until June.
Second, the incremental structure means it’s not sustainable. You can’t keep earning this unless you keep adding fresh funds.
Third, after the promo, if you forget about it, your money drops to 0.05%.
Most people win a bit in the short term and then lose it back by being passive.
“What about the 8 mpd part, is that where the real value is?”
That’s actually the only USP and best part to me... compared to the interest.
If you spend $1,000 and get 8,000 miles, that could be worth roughly $120 to $160 monthly depending on how you value miles.
So this is more of a miles optimisation tool than a GOOD SAVINGS ACCOUNT
“So should I move my $50,000?”
Only if your $50k is currently earning low base interest, you are treating this as a short-term parking strategy, and you are disciplined enough to move it out after June.
Or if you just wanna have the 8mpd (and $50,000 is extra to you)
If not, don’t bother.
“What is the biggest mistake people will make?”
They will treat this as a set-and-forget high interest account.
It’s not. It’s a temporary promo with conditions.
If you don’t actively manage it, you end up with 0.05% without realising.
“How should I think about this overall?”
Use it for short-term liquidity or miles extraction if it fits your behaviour.
Do not rely on it for long-term cash management or returns.
The main thing is not to chase headline rates without understanding how they actually work.
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