EXPIRY WEEK STARTS
Markets might be in for some more short covering
Global setup supportive of some more rally
Big question: Can the gap up be chased today?
((SGX Nifty))

MARKET SETUP
Global market going through powerful bear mkt rally
Bear mkt rallies are tradable and fierce
Market may have made an intermittent bottom
A final bottom might still be some time away
The final bottom may coincide with either of 2 events
Event 1: The US economy reports negative growth
Event 2: Fed chickens out and reverses rate cycle
For near term, Nifty has resistance at 20 DEMA of 15,850
After 15,850, some resistance at 20 DMA of 16,000
Short covering aside, IT is weak and Banks relatively better
Commodity users like Autos may extend their outperformance

good morning

GLOBAL STALEMATE
Bulls and bears play out a boring draw
Bulls nervous in counter trend, bears in “wait and watch”
Back home, Nifty placed at very strong resistance
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
All 3 major indices have run up to 20 DMA
Nifty runs the risk of 20 DMA halt in pullback
Nifty faces big congestion in 15,850-16,000 zone
Fresh expansion now only on close above 16,000
On downside, big support at 15,700-15,800
Big Put writing seen at both 15,700 and 15,800
Dollar remains benign but crude prices jump
Periodic exits extremely important in bear mkt rallies

As discussed in setup, Nifty held 15,700 and on upside facing resistance at 15,850

Good morning

NASTY GLOBAL SETUP!
Yesterday’s Dow chart epitome of bearishness
US: 1 big green candle and then huge decline
Rupee at new low, Brent crude almost at $118
Back home, Nifty has run into classical 20 DMA halt
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Anecdotally, gaps haven’t seen follow through
Big risk now is if the bear market rally is over
For starters, 15,700 will be a sacrosanct level
15,700 Put writer remained firm yesterday
There should be one fight to defend 15,650-15,700
Bigger decline if Nifty starts to slip below 15,650
Upside opens only on close above 20 DMA of 15,950
Both financials and IT have headwinds today
Market breadth will be key to watch out

I kept my setup short just to highlight the point that at 15,650-15,700, you will get one upside.

Hopefully people could benefit

Now remember, this is still a tricky market so one has to be nimble

Good morning

EXPIRY DAY!
US mkt resilient despite a hawkish Fed chair
Dollar above 105, Brent crude below $116/bbl
In India, the battle remains for 15,700 and 15,900
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Indian market has shown resilience for 2 days
Nifty defended 15,700 after gap down for 2 days
15,650-15,700 now a line in sand for longs
On upside, 15,850-15,950 remains resistance
20 day simple and exponential moving avg in 15,850-15,950 zone
For 3 days, market has gapped with no follow through
Today’s indications are for flat opening
Last 3 day FII selling much lower than avg
In June, average daily FII selling was Rs 2,750 cr
Buying around 15,700 and selling at 15,850 is working
At some point, the Nifty range will break
Reliance, Infosys and HDFC twins will be the stocks to watch

Good morning

NEWS VS PRICE ACTION
Markets resilient last week despite bad news
Last week’s theme was “Buy on dips”
US market closed today, volatility may ebb
Falling 20 DMA of 15,827 first port of call
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
For 3 days now, gap downs have been bought

Date Nifty low Nifty close
June 28 15,710 15,850
June 29 15,687 15,799
June 30 15,728 15,780
July 1 15,511 15,752

TRADE SETUP
Despite resilience, Nifty has been making lower lows
After Nifty, Bank Nifty showing 20 DMA pause
Nifty needs to close above 15,900 for meaningful rally

MARKET SETUP
US data shows aggressive rate hikes are working
The bear market may have another 3 months to go
Gauging price bottom is next to impossible

Good morning