Good morning

THE BEAR IS BACK!
Biggest decline in US since 2020, Target down 26%
Volatility Index up 18%, Dollar Index near 104
Big question: Will the recent low of 15,735 hold?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Timing exits in bear market pullbacks always tough ((Have been saying this for 2 days))
Weekly expiry, market may give back bulk of Tuesday gains
For 3 days last week, Nifty took support at 15,735
First hour today will be about pain for 16,200 Put writers
16,200 Put added 20 lakh shares out of 27 lakh yesterday!
Highest Put Open Interest at 16,000 and 15,800
Nifty needs to take support at 15,950 for Put writers
Below 15,950, further support comes in only at 15,800
The larger point is that we are in some kind of a bear market
IT likely to lead decline again, Nasdaq now down 30% from peak
Market breadth will be key monitorable again

Good morning

RISK-ON RETURNS IN BIG WAY!
Sharp decline in dollar, below 103
China cuts benchmark lending rate
Nifty again took support at 15,800
FII selling at highs remains a risk
((SGX nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Today is a day to go full risk-on just for the day
Metals Index, other commodities may lead
Dollar plus China is a potent combination for risk-on
On Nifty now, 15,700-15,800 huge support
Fresh decline now only on close below 15,700
Big question: Do you chase Nifty on 200 point gap up?
On closing basis, Nifty is now about 15,800 and 16,400
“Winner takes all” possible on the 2 Nifty extremes
FII selling at highs remains a risk

Today was the best day to make money. Hope people managed to do that. Just one of those days where you take some risk!!

Good morning

THE FISCAL PUSH
Govt unveils inflation fighting package
Big cut in petrol, diesel price to lift sentiment
Dramatic rally in US mkt in last hour
Dollar Index falls more, below 103
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Today is a day to look at users of commodities
Autos, Real Estate, Banks likely to outperform
Nifty has been making 300-400 point moves daily
Normally such big moves happen in a bear mkt rally
First test of Nifty rally at 20 DMA of 16,510
Bank Nifty’s 200 DMA is 700 points away at 34,900
A 20 DMA halt will confirm the larger downtrend
If Nifty closes above 20 DMA, stronger shorts will cover
FII short exposure down from 82% to 60%
Big question: Did the market pre-empt the excise cuts?

Good morning

BULL VS BEAR: GLOBAL TUSSLE
US markets surge but futures down
Asia not seeing any follow through rally
Dollar Index remains benign
Back home, Nifty had a 20 day EMA halt
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
This is a scalper’s market, no directional view
Survival should be the mantra in current market
Nifty slipped after testing 20 day EMA
16,450-16,500 now a well-defined resistance
Market’s reaction to Divi’s says lot about texture
FIIs sell again but selling has come down vs avg
FIIs in F&O: Only notable data point was Put buying
Data suggests Put buying at 16,100
Exit in Bear market rallies always tough to time
Bear market negates only above 17,200

Good morning

SENTIMENT VS PRICE ACTION
Sentiment weak but Indices defending May lows
Inflation fight continues, moves on sugar and edible oil
Dollar Index soft but Brent prices move up
FII selling continues unabated, especially in last hour
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Market falling like a script post 2 pm daily
As of now, Nifty in a broad range of 600 points
Recent low of 15,800 and 20 DMA are the 2 extremes
Nifty will see resistance at falling 20 DMA
20 DMA (simple and exponential) around 16,400
Monthly expiry tomorrow, more volatility likely
IT remains the weakest component, Banks resilient
This month: Bank Nifty down 5%, IT down 10%
Moves on steel and sugar show the regulatory risks

Look at IT vs Banks again - the point I AGAIN made in morning.

All of you will remember I called the end of IT bull market even BEFORE the first downgrade happened. Now its fashionable to downgrade IT

I hope people benefitted. Now to all those asking whether IT has bottomed out? My sense is it will when valuations get back to median of last 5 years

Just one point people: No price is too high in bull market and no price too low in a bear

Ok friends, I am taking a break for 3 weeks. Won't be available on any platform as it's a total break. Trade/invest safe and remember the basic rules. See you soon.

Good morning