A CLASSICAL BEAR PHASE
Global markets in a near-term bear market
The big theme remains risk-off
Money moving from everything else to Dollar
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Portfolio hit: Midcap down 17% and Small Cap down 24% from highs
“Hope is not a data point”
Everyone is talking about an oversold market
There is no rule of oversold market rallying
Oversold market needs a trigger to rally
FII long exposure in Index futures is at 22%
FIIs have been short since start of series
Nobody can time when the short covering will come
Better strategy would be to stay with the market flow
Buying late in market is better than buying too early
Imp levels: Recent low of 15,700 and erstwhile support of 16,800
Global markets in a near-term bear market
The big theme remains risk-off
Money moving from everything else to Dollar
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Portfolio hit: Midcap down 17% and Small Cap down 24% from highs
“Hope is not a data point”
Everyone is talking about an oversold market
There is no rule of oversold market rallying
Oversold market needs a trigger to rally
FII long exposure in Index futures is at 22%
FIIs have been short since start of series
Nobody can time when the short covering will come
Better strategy would be to stay with the market flow
Buying late in market is better than buying too early
Imp levels: Recent low of 15,700 and erstwhile support of 16,800
Anuj Singhal CNBC Awaaz Managing Editor
Mindtree is now down 20% this month. For a lot of you who are asking me why is it down so much - the concept of VALUATION RESET is a huge market concept. Unfortunately many don't look at it and only look at numbers. Today in Youtube live - we discuss this.
After 20% last month, Mindtree down another 15% this month. Remember the valuation reset I have been talking for last 3 months. Seriously hope people would have understood it by now.
INFLATION & EXPIRY: HEADY COCKTAIL!
US markets tumble after inflation data
Dollar stable around 104, Cryptos roiled
Nifty saw resilience around 16,000 mark
Weekly options expiry today
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty defended 16,000, may try to defend again
Matter of when and not if Nifty tests March lows
Alert: March low was 15,671 and closing low was 15,863
FII long exposure down further from 22% to 20.8%
FIIs add another 12,000 contracts on short side in futures
One solace for bulls is end of indiscriminate selling
Bank Nifty has shown resilience for 2 days in a row
This week: Nifty IT down 2%, Nifty Bank in green
Market’s theme is value stocks over expensive ones
Big question: Is there more capitulation in broader market?
STOCKS AT NEW HIGH/LOW
Group New high New low
A 0 119
B 3 93
Total 51 269
STOCKS AT NEW HIGH/LOW
Anecdotally, midcap pain over when new low hits 500-600
US markets tumble after inflation data
Dollar stable around 104, Cryptos roiled
Nifty saw resilience around 16,000 mark
Weekly options expiry today
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty defended 16,000, may try to defend again
Matter of when and not if Nifty tests March lows
Alert: March low was 15,671 and closing low was 15,863
FII long exposure down further from 22% to 20.8%
FIIs add another 12,000 contracts on short side in futures
One solace for bulls is end of indiscriminate selling
Bank Nifty has shown resilience for 2 days in a row
This week: Nifty IT down 2%, Nifty Bank in green
Market’s theme is value stocks over expensive ones
Big question: Is there more capitulation in broader market?
STOCKS AT NEW HIGH/LOW
Group New high New low
A 0 119
B 3 93
Total 51 269
STOCKS AT NEW HIGH/LOW
Anecdotally, midcap pain over when new low hits 500-600
FRIDAY THE 13th!
Global markets in a dead cat bounce
Dollar Index remains elevated around 105
FII selling overpowering everything
Will the relief rally get sold into?
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
FII long exposure in futures now down to 17%
Nifty closed below March closing low of 15,863
Nifty defended March intra-day low of 15,671
15,671 now becomes line in sand for contra longs
Fresh decline for Nifty now only below 15,671
First gap up will be vulnerable to be sold into
Mid and small caps may have more flushing out
Stocks at 52-w low at 326 vs 249
MARKET SETUP
Nifty’s rally was from 12,000 to 18,000
Markets give up 33-66% in corrections
33% retracement done, 50% will mean 15,000
The bigger question is on mid and small Caps
Midcap Index has fallen 19% and Small Cap 28%
Global markets in a dead cat bounce
Dollar Index remains elevated around 105
FII selling overpowering everything
Will the relief rally get sold into?
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
FII long exposure in futures now down to 17%
Nifty closed below March closing low of 15,863
Nifty defended March intra-day low of 15,671
15,671 now becomes line in sand for contra longs
Fresh decline for Nifty now only below 15,671
First gap up will be vulnerable to be sold into
Mid and small caps may have more flushing out
Stocks at 52-w low at 326 vs 249
MARKET SETUP
Nifty’s rally was from 12,000 to 18,000
Markets give up 33-66% in corrections
33% retracement done, 50% will mean 15,000
The bigger question is on mid and small Caps
Midcap Index has fallen 19% and Small Cap 28%
WILL THE BOUNCE SUSTAIN?
Big question: Can the market sustain any rally
Friday’s gap up was brutally sold into
Dollar Index consolidating below 105 for now
FIIs sell big in cash but cover Index shorts
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
First signs of short covering by FIIs on Friday
Index futures: FIIs unwind 27,000 shorts
Index Puts: FIIs unwind 31,000 Put longs
Friday’s low of 15,740 close to Mar low of 15,671
Market might be due for one short covering bounce
Possible to have a counter trend rally
Any rally would be an opportunity to exit poor stocks
Market has given enough hints of a prolonged bear phase
The Mar low of 15,671 now becomes line in sand
Holcim deal may keep cement sector buzzing today
Big question: Can the market sustain any rally
Friday’s gap up was brutally sold into
Dollar Index consolidating below 105 for now
FIIs sell big in cash but cover Index shorts
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
First signs of short covering by FIIs on Friday
Index futures: FIIs unwind 27,000 shorts
Index Puts: FIIs unwind 31,000 Put longs
Friday’s low of 15,740 close to Mar low of 15,671
Market might be due for one short covering bounce
Possible to have a counter trend rally
Any rally would be an opportunity to exit poor stocks
Market has given enough hints of a prolonged bear phase
The Mar low of 15,671 now becomes line in sand
Holcim deal may keep cement sector buzzing today
BIG DAY FOR MARKET
LIC’s listing today, India’s largest ever IPO
Imp nos: Bharti, DLF, Dr Lal Pathlabs, IOC
Some signs of selling exhaustion from FIIs
Brent up Dow mildly higher, Dollar and Nasdaq down
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Markets going through a contra rally in bear market
IT remains weak, Nifty IT now down 25% from peak
FII short exposure now at 72% vs 82% 2 days back
10% cut in short positions hasn’t led to big rally
FII selling down as gross volumes down significantly
Today can be a make or break day for market
Nifty’s low for last 2 days: 15,740
Nifty’s March intra-day low: 15,671
Matter of survival for bulls to defend 15,671-15,640 zone
Break of 15,671 will open door towards 14,700 on Nifty
LIC’s listing today, India’s largest ever IPO
Imp nos: Bharti, DLF, Dr Lal Pathlabs, IOC
Some signs of selling exhaustion from FIIs
Brent up Dow mildly higher, Dollar and Nasdaq down
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Markets going through a contra rally in bear market
IT remains weak, Nifty IT now down 25% from peak
FII short exposure now at 72% vs 82% 2 days back
10% cut in short positions hasn’t led to big rally
FII selling down as gross volumes down significantly
Today can be a make or break day for market
Nifty’s low for last 2 days: 15,740
Nifty’s March intra-day low: 15,671
Matter of survival for bulls to defend 15,671-15,640 zone
Break of 15,671 will open door towards 14,700 on Nifty
GLOBAL STABILITY
Dollar Index down to 103.3, biggest cue
China factor leads to big commodity rally
Big question: Has the Indian market made a bottom?
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Bear mkt rallies look like the real deal
Short covering bounce may have legs
FII data screams of short covering, no buying
Index futures: FIIs unwind 14,000 shorts
Index options: FIIs unwind 16,000 Call shorts
Can Nifty test 20 DMA of 16,670 in this run?
Bank Nifty’s 20 DMA at 35,290
Timing the exit in short covering rally always tough
This rally an opportunity to exit expensive stocks
Rally also an opportunity to exit leveraged positions
Dollar Index down to 103.3, biggest cue
China factor leads to big commodity rally
Big question: Has the Indian market made a bottom?
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Bear mkt rallies look like the real deal
Short covering bounce may have legs
FII data screams of short covering, no buying
Index futures: FIIs unwind 14,000 shorts
Index options: FIIs unwind 16,000 Call shorts
Can Nifty test 20 DMA of 16,670 in this run?
Bank Nifty’s 20 DMA at 35,290
Timing the exit in short covering rally always tough
This rally an opportunity to exit expensive stocks
Rally also an opportunity to exit leveraged positions
Look at Bharti. Even in worst of market declines, its very close to its highs than lows. This is why I like such stocks - they should not destroy wealth in bad times and in good times, they do well.