D DAY TODAY
One of the most important FOMC outcomes today
Global mkts heading into Fed with cautious optimism
Indian market very resilient in face of negative cues
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty has been in a broad 16,800-17,300 band
FII long exposure at 34%, Nifty Open Interest low
Market short, near consensus of a rally post Fed
Better to wait for Fed outcome instead of pre-empting
Domestically, HDFC twins have shown selling exhaustion
If HDFC twins rally, market may not decline much
Nifty IT in bear market but a short squeeze is possible
Rally in IT stocks will be vulnerable to be sold into
Bank Nifty at inflection point around 36,000
One of the most important FOMC outcomes today
Global mkts heading into Fed with cautious optimism
Indian market very resilient in face of negative cues
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty has been in a broad 16,800-17,300 band
FII long exposure at 34%, Nifty Open Interest low
Market short, near consensus of a rally post Fed
Better to wait for Fed outcome instead of pre-empting
Domestically, HDFC twins have shown selling exhaustion
If HDFC twins rally, market may not decline much
Nifty IT in bear market but a short squeeze is possible
Rally in IT stocks will be vulnerable to be sold into
Bank Nifty at inflection point around 36,000
Anuj Singhal CNBC Awaaz Managing Editor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t87puCi8t0&feature=youtu.be
Looks like my gut feeling is coming true.
NEWS VS POSITIONING
Fed raises rates by 50 bps, US markets surge
Larger question on health of equities still unanswered
Indian market saw heavy shorting yesterday
Expiry today, SGX Nifty indicating a gap up
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Markets are primed for major short covering
If first hour high is breached, trend day possible
FIIs have gone all in on short side ahead of expiry
Index futures: FIIs unwind 1500 longs, add 36,000 shorts
Stock futures: FIIs net add 14,000 shorts
Nifty’s test will be in 16,885-16,950 band
Nifty was at 16,885-16,960 when RBI statement started
If Nifty sustains above 16,950, can see bigger short covering
If yesterday’s low is breached, expect a bearish phase
RBI’s credibility restored, FIIs might see rate hike positively
Near-term move aside, medium term volatility to continue
Fed raises rates by 50 bps, US markets surge
Larger question on health of equities still unanswered
Indian market saw heavy shorting yesterday
Expiry today, SGX Nifty indicating a gap up
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Markets are primed for major short covering
If first hour high is breached, trend day possible
FIIs have gone all in on short side ahead of expiry
Index futures: FIIs unwind 1500 longs, add 36,000 shorts
Stock futures: FIIs net add 14,000 shorts
Nifty’s test will be in 16,885-16,950 band
Nifty was at 16,885-16,960 when RBI statement started
If Nifty sustains above 16,950, can see bigger short covering
If yesterday’s low is breached, expect a bearish phase
RBI’s credibility restored, FIIs might see rate hike positively
Near-term move aside, medium term volatility to continue
From morning setup: After a gap up, Nifty’s test will be in 16,885-16,950 band
GLOBAL MAYHEM!
US markets collapse following dead cat bounce
Nasdaq at 52-w low, S&P and Dow within 1% of that
Crypto market roiled, Bitcoin down 9%
US 10 year bond yield hits 3%, Dollar nears 104
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Big question: Will Indian market also revisit March lows?
Indian market has been resilient in face of weak cues
Nifty normally doesn’t move in direction of gap
First hour high/low has been getting respected
Near-term moves aside, market in short-term bear phase
From Apr high: Midcap down 8%, Small Cap down 10%
IT likely to continue to lead decline with intermittent rallies
Cos with low/zero debt and high cash flows will do well
It’s time for a complete portfolio reset, focus on quality
Value stocks with dividend yields another pocket to look at
Lessons from 2004-07: A big rally once excesses are out
US markets collapse following dead cat bounce
Nasdaq at 52-w low, S&P and Dow within 1% of that
Crypto market roiled, Bitcoin down 9%
US 10 year bond yield hits 3%, Dollar nears 104
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Big question: Will Indian market also revisit March lows?
Indian market has been resilient in face of weak cues
Nifty normally doesn’t move in direction of gap
First hour high/low has been getting respected
Near-term moves aside, market in short-term bear phase
From Apr high: Midcap down 8%, Small Cap down 10%
IT likely to continue to lead decline with intermittent rallies
Cos with low/zero debt and high cash flows will do well
It’s time for a complete portfolio reset, focus on quality
Value stocks with dividend yields another pocket to look at
Lessons from 2004-07: A big rally once excesses are out
Good morning friends. I am not well so no updates today.