Good morning

A DOUBLE BOTTOM?
Nasdaq defends March lows with last hour rally
Big week for Nasdaq, cos worth 40% weight report nos
Nifty managed to defend key levels
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty defended last Tuesday’s low and close
Last week low of 16,824 now becomes sacrosanct
Bank Nifty showed strength, follow through key
Some signs of selling exhaustion visible in HDFC twins
FIIs now net short, added 3 shorts for every long
Nifty will face some congestion in 17,050-17,150 zone
Bigger short covering if Nifty sustains above 17,150
Market’s overall texture is still “Sell on rally”
Market breadth was poor, need to observe that

Good morning

TREACHEROUS MARKETS
Nasdaq ends at 52-w low, Tesla sheds $120 bn
Dollar Index at 102, Brent crude at 106
Nifty ended right at the 200 DMA resistance of 17,200
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Next 8 days most important for Global market
Huge earnings, with lead up to May 4 FOMC decision
This is a punishing market for trend chasers
Chasing gap up/down is not working
Market trapping on one side and moving other side
Last week’s low of 16,824 remains sacrosanct
Larger trend in near term “Sell on rallies”
Any intra-day recovery has to be led by RIL, Banks

MACRO MOVES
IT Index has more to shed, another 10% easily possible
Commodity stocks peaking, users bottoming
Auto Index strongest among all this month
This month: Metals Index down 4%, Auto up 6%

Hero Moto is up 10% in 2 days. It was my macro call yesterday that Autos are in for big rally and Hero Moto is best placed. Hope people benefitted.

Good morning

MORE OF THE SAME
Nasdaq’s last hour collapse shows mkt texture
Dollar at 103, FII flows again turning negative
FIIs sold Rs 4,000 cr in cash and sold heavily in futures
Momentum with bears, 200 DMA halt visible
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Key highlight of trade was FIIs going “All in” on short side
Monthly FII selling has averaged $5 bn since November
Index futures: FIIs unwind 19.000 longs, add 20,000 shorts
Monthly expiry today, expect lot of volatility
Nifty’s markers remain 16,850 and 17,250
Nifty has made death cross, 50 DMA below 200
Bank Nifty now negative for the month
ICICI Bank’s move post earnings really negative
Keep an eye on Adv/dec for market’s health

SHIFT FROM EXPENSIVE TO VALUE
Top monthly gainers: NTPC, M&M, Hero, Bajaj
Top monthly losers: Infosys, Bajaj Fin, HDFC twins

good morning

RANGE BREAKOUT FINALLY?
US market surges, led by Meta
Back home, Nifty ended above 17,200
Will this time be “Buy in May and go away”?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
May series starts extremely light despite rally
FII short exposure in Index futures at 65%
Nifty futures Open Int at lowest level this year
Recent low of 16,824 now a line in sand
Some of the problem pockets seeing selling exhaustion
Market’s problem essentially has been HDFC twins and IT
This week so far: HDFC twins up 1%, Nifty IT down 1.6%
Reliance new leader of the market, up 7% this month
FOMC meeting of May 4-5 most important trigger

I discussed selling exhaustion in HDFC twins this morning (y)

Good morning

GLOBAL VS LOCAL CUES
Nasdaq ends at lows again
GST collections at all time high
Most results over weekend have been good
$500 m FII selling on Friday, remains a headwind
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty rejected the higher end of range last week
Nifty could again test lower end of range at 16,824-16,950
Shorting after a big gap down will not have good risk-reward
IT remains weak, onus of recovery on Banks and Reliance
Market making violent moves on both sides
Anecdotally, such violent moves lead to a trend change
A definite trend could emerge after FOMC meet
Focusing on individual stocks may be a better bet

Look at Infy vs HDFC twins. This is exactly what I mentioned in my Top 10.

That IT will be weak and any recovery has to be led by HDFC twins.

Mindtree is now down 20% this month. For a lot of you who are asking me why is it down so much - the concept of VALUATION RESET is a huge market concept. Unfortunately many don't look at it and only look at numbers. Today in Youtube live - we discuss this.

Good evening