MURPHY’S LAW AT PLAY
Shocker from Infosys, ADR down 10% in 2 days
HDFC Bk below est, Stk below merger announcement level
Infosys and HDFC Bank account for 17% on Nifty
Brent at 113, Dollar Index neat 101, Nasdaq slides
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
SGX Nifty indicates 200 point gap down
After a big gap down, Nifty may not show much follow throw
Important closing levels: 17,153 and 17,464
Nifty’s trend turns negative on close below 17,153
Nifty’s trend remains positive on close above 17,464
IT has shown signs that its leadership is over
Big question remains on how much will IT valuations reset?
Resumption of FII selling remains another headwind
FIIs selling in cash, adding shorts in Index futures

MIDCAP IT: VALUATION RESET?
Stock Off highs FY23PE
Mindtree 19% 35X
L&T tech 24% 40X
Persistent 13% 38X
L&T info 20% 36X
Coforge 32% 37x

Good morning

ALL ABOUT 200 DMA!
Nifty managed to defend crucial 200 DMA yesterday
No major change in Dollar/Brent/Yield cues overnight
Heavy FII selling in bluechips indicates pain
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
FII net selling of Rs 6,000 cr largely in 3 stocks

STOCK Delivery (Rs cr)
Infosys 3,000
HDFC Bank 2,300
HDFC 1,500

TRADE SETUP
Short covering aside, select bluechips are now weak
IT and HDFC twins account for nearly 33% weight in Nifty
Today’s trade will test market’s near-term texture
Nifty opened and closed almost at same level yesterday
Yesterday’s high and low crucial markers for today
Yesterday’s high: 17,238, and low: 17,067
Bank Nifty may have an overhang of HDFC Bank ADR
Bank Nifty has been relatively stronger despite HDFC Bk
Bank Nifty trading at 20, 50 and 200 DMA
Midcap outperformance may continue if Nifty holds 200 DMA

AU Bank at all time high. Was my Top 10 stock to watch today.

Look at Nifty IT. Mindtree down 10%

That's why I tell people to respect macro triggers. I have been warning about IT for a month now. This was coming. Market had given enough warnings

Good morning

THE ETF SELLING PRESSURE!
Nifty collapsed on heavy FII selling, ended below 17,000
200 DMA support of 17,170 may now be a resistance
Global cues: Brent down but Dollar Index at 101
Poor Netflix earnings prove that life returning to normalcy
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
The Indian market has a massive bluechip problem
Yesterday’s last hour smacked of large ETF selling

FII SELLING IMPACT!
Stock Del vol (Rs cr)
HDFC 3,000
HDFC Bank 3,300
Infosys 1,700

TRADE SETUP
Big question: Is the HDFC twins compounding story over?
Market is giving a re-entry opportunity for bluechip investors
Nifty has now given up exact 50% of the recent rally
On a closing basis, Nifty rallied from 15,863 to 18,053
FIIs sold in cash but built long positions in Index futures
Nifty has made a lower low on closing basis
Bank Nifty has still not made a lower low despite the fall
Nifty much weaker due to IT getting into a bear phase
Nifty IT now down 20% from peak
Nifty Put Call ratio at 0.68, market heavily oversold

Good morning

SELLING EXHAUSTION?
FII selling down, HDFC twins stable
HDFC Bank ADR up 2.3%, Can Bank Nifty lead?
Global cues more or less stable
SGX Nifty indicating start above 200 DMA

TRADE SETUP
Market’s texture depends on 3-4 big heavies
Yesterday, large cap IT and HDFC twins stabilized
Follow through important for IT and HDFC twins
Reliance has been strong, batting for the bulls
Nifty’s texture clears on close below 16,950 or above 17,315
Midcap Index has outperformed all through the month
Market’s leadership has shifted from IT to economy stocks

GM

THE FRIDAY FACTOR!
2 days for bears, 2 for bulls, decider today
Nasdaq’s decline again leads to global weakness
Nifty closed well above the 200 DMA
FII selling down to a trickle
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
SGX Nifty indicating a retest of 200 DMA
Indian market has shown some decoupling signs
Markets are making sharp moves in both directions
Tough to take any call beyond 1-2 days in this market
If 200 DMA of 17,185 holds, a rally is possible
FII selling is down, IT and HDFC twins stabilized
Reliance has carried bulls, stock at all time high
ICICI Bank nos tomorrow, Bank Nifty move could be interesting
Bank Nifty trading at 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA crossovers

The last hour move could be crucial today ahead of ICICI Bank's nos on Saturday

As I mentioned in setup also. Just to reiterate - its the second highest weighted stock on Bank Nifty

Good morning

RISK OFF AHEAD OF FED!
US markets nervous ahead of May 4 meet
Nasdaq all set to break 52-w lows
ICICI nos strong, can it save the bulls?
Analysts: ICICI Bk now what HDFC Bk was 3 yrs back
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Global equities in some kind of risk off mode again
Indian market has been resilient, well above Mar lows
FIIs selling again, in cash and in futures
For Nifty, Tuesday low and close important levels
Tuesday low of 16,824 and close of 16,958 levels to defend
Bank Nifty weak, closed at monthly lows
Resumption of selling seen in HDFC twins
IT as a space has to negotiate valuation de-rating
Reliance and ICICI Bank need to bat for the bulls again