Good morning

BIG MACRO DAY
RBI policy today, will accommodative stance continue?
Unless RBI hikes, it will be seen as behind the curve
Ex of major surprise, policy impact to last for an hour
Big question for market: Is the uptrend over?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
FIIs have started selling again, remains a concern
This week’s move has to be seen in 2 parts
Monday was outlier, rest of the days countered it
Despite 3 down days, Nifty flat for the week
HDFC twins are now flat for the week, back to status quo
If HDFC twins go to last week level, market has a problem
Logically, large part of FII selling would be in HDFC twins
On the Nifty, 17,600 is sacrosanct on closing basis
If Nifty holds 17,600, it can make another attempt at 18,000
If 17,600 goes on close, a re-test of 17,200 base is possible
Midcaps have outperformed, Index up 2.6% this week
Midcap outperformance to continue if Nifty holds 17,600

Today's low 17,600.55

And midcaps have outperformed through the day

This is simple concept of risk-reward

There is a difference between the 2. Be a trader and not a gambler.

Good morning

SHORT WEEK, BIG CUES
3-day week, expiry on Wednesday
TCS to kickstart earnings season
Dollar Index and Brent both around 100
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Friday’s trade confirmed 17,600 as base
Friday’s low on Nifty was 17,600.50
Good chance of Nifty being range bound
Near-term range for Nifty 17,600-18,000
This month: Nifty up 1.8%, Midcap up 5%
Midcap Index 6% and Nifty 4% away from highs
Nifty Midcap may beat Nifty to new highs
Nifty Jr could be first to hit new all-time highs
17,600 on Nifty and 37,800 on Bank Nifty new base
Trend for Indices negates only on close below base
HDFC twins gave up all Monday gains by Friday

The 2 things I mentioned in morning - Midcap outperformance and IT underperforming - both have played out

Good morning

THE GLOBAL WARNING!
Dollar Index above 100, VIX up 15%
Nasdaq ends at lows for 3rd day in a row
TCS nos decent, margin overhang may hurt
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Indian market now has a large cap problem
IT Index underperforming, HDFC twins dragging
TCS nos are good but not enough to fire up the sector
IT stocks had surged mainly on valuation reset
If margin pressure hurts, valuations would take a beating
IT stocks may now become “Sell on rally” like Nasdaq stks
HDFC twins are not trading below pre-merger levels
17,600 remains sacrosanct on closing basis for Nifty
Midcap Index up ~6% vs 1% for Nifty this month
Midcap outperformance may sustain if Nifty doesn’t collapse
Midcaps would also fall if Nifty starts to close below 17,500

good morning

I am wearing green on green with green jacket as well. So trying to do my bit to help you all

VOLATILE DAY AHEAD!
Dollar Index inches further up to 100.3
US markets give up big gains, Nasdaq down
Nifty closed off lows but below 17,600
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
FII selling emerging as a big trend once again
FIIs net sell Rs 3,100 cr in cash and go big short in F&O
Index futures: FIIs unwind 6600 longs, add 10,900 shorts
Index options: FIIs unwind 26,500 Call longs, buy 30,000 Put
Big question: Will shorts get follow through?
Expect short covering if yesterday low holds
Expect further decline if yesterday low breaches
Expiry today, 4-day weekend coming up
Last hour crucial, market will position for 2 big results
Mkt to react to biggest IT and Bank stk earnings on Monday
Infosys nos today evening, HDFC Bk nos on Saturday
Both Infy and HDFC Bk have 8.5% weight in Nifty
((Talk a bit here on midcap IT))

Good morning