The Bank Nifty has completed the unfinished business I have been talking about at the 200 DMA
RANGE BROKEN: WHAT NEXT?
Global cues continue to be supportive
Dollar Index at 98.5, Brent sub $104
FIIs have started to come back to market
Record high GST collections, strong update from HDFC Bk
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty has broken the 17,000-17,500 range
Nifty has managed to cross 66% retracement
Only risk for market now is consensus bullishness
FII long exposure down slightly at 71% vs 74%
Heavy Put writing at 17,500, now a support
Bank Nifty rallied 400 points after crossing 200 DMA
Erstwhile resistance of 36,700 should now be support
Midcap Index might begin to outperform now
Nifty’s uptrend negates only below 17,200
Global cues continue to be supportive
Dollar Index at 98.5, Brent sub $104
FIIs have started to come back to market
Record high GST collections, strong update from HDFC Bk
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Nifty has broken the 17,000-17,500 range
Nifty has managed to cross 66% retracement
Only risk for market now is consensus bullishness
FII long exposure down slightly at 71% vs 74%
Heavy Put writing at 17,500, now a support
Bank Nifty rallied 400 points after crossing 200 DMA
Erstwhile resistance of 36,700 should now be support
Midcap Index might begin to outperform now
Nifty’s uptrend negates only below 17,200
TRADE SETUP
((Nifty – 6 month chart – V shape recovery))
The pace of rally has stunned everyone
Market didn’t make a top on good news, ended at high
At every level, shorts have been taken to cleaners
Market runs the risk of being overbought now
At some point today, market at risk of profit taking
Risk-reward does not favour a fresh buy at open
Any dip towards yesterday low better entry point
Bank Nifty up 6% in 2 days, led by HDFC Bank
Individual stocks offer better opportunity now
((Nifty – 6 month chart – V shape recovery))
The pace of rally has stunned everyone
Market didn’t make a top on good news, ended at high
At every level, shorts have been taken to cleaners
Market runs the risk of being overbought now
At some point today, market at risk of profit taking
Risk-reward does not favour a fresh buy at open
Any dip towards yesterday low better entry point
Bank Nifty up 6% in 2 days, led by HDFC Bank
Individual stocks offer better opportunity now
Its played out to the T. Midcaps outperforming and sharp dip intra-day in Bank Nifty
Yesterday I warned that risk-reward didn't favour longs. What now? Stay tuned for trade setup.
A GLOBAL U TURN?
Hawkish Fed drives global markets lower
Dollar Index almost at 100, VIX up 13%
Nifty failed to defend Put base of 18,000
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Risk-reward for longs had become unfavourable
Market set to trap longs in first hour of trade
Maximum Put build-up at 18,000, prem Rs 100
Next support base for Nifty at 17,700
Risk-reward may again turn favourable at 17,700
FII long exposure at 74%, a correction was needed
Erstwhile resistance of 17,600 should act as support
Nifty’s uptrend negates only on close below 17,600
On Bank Nifty, very strong support at 200 DMA of 36,800
Need to watch out for HDFC twins today
Hawkish Fed drives global markets lower
Dollar Index almost at 100, VIX up 13%
Nifty failed to defend Put base of 18,000
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Risk-reward for longs had become unfavourable
Market set to trap longs in first hour of trade
Maximum Put build-up at 18,000, prem Rs 100
Next support base for Nifty at 17,700
Risk-reward may again turn favourable at 17,700
FII long exposure at 74%, a correction was needed
Erstwhile resistance of 17,600 should act as support
Nifty’s uptrend negates only on close below 17,600
On Bank Nifty, very strong support at 200 DMA of 36,800
Need to watch out for HDFC twins today
Yesterday also, I had said that from here midcaps will outperform
This also emphasises the fact that overall we are still in uptrend till 17600 is intact
THE VIX FACTOR
CBOE VIX in US up 18% in 2 days
India VIX bounced from trendline low
Dollar Index near 100, Brent at 103
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Market has seen long unwinding, no major selling
FIIs net sold in cash and in futures, Index Calls
Highest Put Open Int at 17,800, prem Rs 55
For the day 17,700-17,750 crucial level to defend
Nifty’s uptrend negates only on close below 17,600
HDFC twins have ended at lows for 2 days running
HDFC twins accounted for 40% of Nifty’s fall yesterday
Big question: Will HDFC twins give up all of gains?
On Bank Nifty, 200 DMA of 36,800 remains sacrosanct
This month: Nifty up 2%, Midcap up 5%
CBOE VIX in US up 18% in 2 days
India VIX bounced from trendline low
Dollar Index near 100, Brent at 103
((SGX Nifty))
TRADE SETUP
Market has seen long unwinding, no major selling
FIIs net sold in cash and in futures, Index Calls
Highest Put Open Int at 17,800, prem Rs 55
For the day 17,700-17,750 crucial level to defend
Nifty’s uptrend negates only on close below 17,600
HDFC twins have ended at lows for 2 days running
HDFC twins accounted for 40% of Nifty’s fall yesterday
Big question: Will HDFC twins give up all of gains?
On Bank Nifty, 200 DMA of 36,800 remains sacrosanct
This month: Nifty up 2%, Midcap up 5%