GM

EARNINGS SPOIL MOOD
Infosys and HDFC twins dragged Nifty by 155 points
Ex of Infosys and HDFC twins, Nifty up 33 points
Nifty has come back to the edge of the channel again ((Show Nifty))
Bank Nifty respected first base of 41,800 beautifully
If HDFC Bank crosses yesterday’s high, it wont look back
Strength visible in ICICI Bank, Kotak and SBI
In near-term, Bank Nifty remains the leader

FII NUMBER AND INFOSYS
Infosys saw delivery based selling of 3.1 cr shares
Value of delivery based selling at Rs 4,000 cr
FII holding in Infosys at 36%, highest in IT stocks
MF holding in Infosys at 18%, highest in IT stocks
Ex of Infosys, FIIs would have net bought
Infosys now trades at 19x but EPS growth at risk

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty violated first base, but defended second base
Yesterday’s low in Nifty hugely significant
Yesterday’s low was event driven hence very important
Nifty’s low yesterday: 17,574, current 200 DMA: 17,568
17,550-17,570 now becomes make or break zone for Nifty
Nifty’s texture of “Buy on dips” changes only on close below 17,500
For today, buy zone at 17,600-17,650, stop loss: 17,550
Yesterday’s open of 17,863 was also the high
17,863 now becomes most important resistance
Sell zone: 17,775-17,825, stop loss: 17,863

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced straight from first base of 41,800
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank again
Kotak Bank showing some signs of taking leadership
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, stock back above 900
Fin Nifty expiry today may impact Bank Nifty
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,400-42,500
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 41,800-42,100

GM

NIFTY: OPEN HIGH
Date Open High
April 17 17863 17863
April 18 17766 17766

NIFTY: INSIDE DAY
Date High Low
April 17 17863 17574
April 18 17766 17610

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how IT and Reliance move in trade today
Reliance spoiled the move yesterday, IT recovered
Traders need to play the range smartly today
Nifty’s first range: 17,610-17,766
Nifty’s bigger range: 17,574-17,863
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,775-17,825, stop: 17,875

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some consolidation
42,400-42,500 remains profit booking zone
Aggressive traders can sell in 42,400-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,100, stop: 42,800
For fresh breakout, HDFC Bank needs to stop falling
ICICI Bank has also run up a lot ahead of numbers
Bank Nifty may attempt new high in May after some consolidation

GM

FRUSTRATING WEEKLY CONTRACT ENDS
Highlight of this week has been a tight range
Market has been falling but not by a lot
A trend likely to emerge next week
This week: Nifty down 1%, Bank Nifty up 0.05%, RIL down 0.15%
This week: Nifty IT down 6%
Monday low: 17,574, yesterday low: 17,579
Current 200 DMA is at 17,587
Next week likely to be a make or break week for market

MARKET: A PATTERN?
Nifty fell from 17750 to 16950 in March
Nifty rallied from 16950 to 17828 in April first half
Nifty has fallen from 17828 to 17618 in 3 days this week
Big question: Is this again a trend reversal back to 17000?
If Nifty falls and closes below 17,500, texture will change again

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Call writers have huge conviction vs Put writers
Today’s trade is about expiry day and levels
Need to see if Call writer can defend levels
Every short trader would have put stop loss at 17,700
Every long trader would have put stop loss at 17,574
Traders need to play the range of 17,574-17,700 smartly
A 3 pm move possible, will take a view in afternoon

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some tiredness
Bank Nifty needs to fall to 41,500-41,800 for positional buying
Bank Nifty now “Sell on rally” till 42,600 is crossed
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,300-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,000, stop: 41,800
For Bank Nifty, important to see when HDFC Bank selling ends
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, positioning will be important

Today's high is 16 point lower than the upper end and today's low is 16 points higher than the lower end suggested in Setup. This is just to convey to people the importance of level based trading when it is working.

Good morning

STUCK IN A RANGE
Nifty has still not broken Monday high or low
Nifty’s battle is now about 17,574 and 17,863
Winner of this battle will take 500 points quickly
Indian market has absorbed poor results well
Higher probability of break out than break down
Reliance, ICICI Bank nos to decide near-term move

MARKET: SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTH
Nifty made higher high and higher low yesterday
Nifty ended 3 day losing streak yesterday

Date Nifty High Nifty low
Apr 17 17863 17574
Apr 18 17766 17610
Apr 19 17666 17579
Apr 20 17684 17584

Bank Nifty is almost 500 points above Monday low
Broader market has shown no signs of weakness

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has been repeatedly defending 200 DMA
200 DMA on Nifty is rising 200 DMA
Current 200 DMA on Nifty is at 17596
Monday low of 17574 remains line in sand
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank has started to show strength once again
If HDFC Bank takes out Monday high, expect big rally
ICICI Bank nos tomorrow, positioning will be key
Bank Nifty has been much stronger than Nifty
Bank Nifty’s significant resistance at 42,567
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,450-42,550
Aggressive traders can sell in 42450-42550 zone, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 42,050-42,150, stop: 41,950
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down

Podcast.

My editors round table is back. I look at some fascinating data. Sure you will like it.

GM

A BLOCKBUSTER MONDAY?
Spectacular nos from ICICI, stock has shorts
Reliance numbers a beat on all parameters
Reliance stock has been weak into earnings
Big relief for HDFC twins and HDFC Life
Buyback announcement from Wipro
Start of expiry week, cues very strong for breakout
If today also Nifty doesn’t break out, will be negative

BIG NUMBERS AND MARKETS
ICICI Bank
Stock has over 8% weight in Nifty
Stock has 28% weight in Bank Nifty
Stock has fallen 8% from its recent highs
Very strong nos, NIMs almost at 5% mark
Only worry: Mgmt says this margin may not be sustainable
Stock trades at very expensive valuations

Reliance
Stock has over 10% weight in Nifty
Proves the adage “old is gold”
Numbers driven mainly by O2C business

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Current 200 DMA is at 17,605
This week’s most crucial level: 17,750-17,850
Massive covering if Nifty takes out 17,850
1.68 cr shares Open Int at 17,700 Call
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,500
Need to see reaction to ICICI and Reliance today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Highest build-up at 42,000 Put and 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty can test new highs if it holds 41,500
Bank Nifty has now seen one-week consolidation
Time to take fresh positional bet on Bank Nifty now
Bank Nifty can be bought with 41,500 stop loss
For day traders, 42,500-42,600 remains profit taking zone
Aggressive short covering will happen above 42,700
Sell trade only if Bank Nifty rejects 42,500-42,600
For any sell trade, a very strict stop loss of 42,700