Good morning. I am on leave this week. Back next Monday.

Good mornng. I am back

TEST FOR MARKETS
((Start with Nifty Trendline))
FII shorts down by 90,000 from peak
Midcaps have started to participate in rally
Bank Nifty has taken back leadership
Big question: Can the Nifty finally break the channel?

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
US Fed minutes will be most important
Bond market assuming Fed close to peak
Nasdaq has moved back in a solid uptrend
Nifty IT at a very crucial level of 20 DEMA
This week most crucial for Nifty IT
Can IT stocks survive recession worry in US?

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty negated forming a major death cross
Nifty has rallied nearly 750 points from lows
Texture has changed to “Buy on dips”
Nifty’s broad range by options: 17,430-17,770
Stop for positional longs: 17,430
Stop for positional shorts: 17,770
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,500-17,550, stop: 17,430
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,650-17,700, stop: 17,770

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty trading above all major moving averages
Bank Nifty traders now need to trail stop loss
Trailing stop loss for Bank Nifty now at 40,500
Bank Nifty may even attempt all-time high in May
Buying Bank Nifty in every panic now best strategy

Good morning

MARKET: IN THE ZONE!
Nifty and Bank Nifty close to major breakouts
Strong Bears will try to fight the breakout attempts
Nifty needs one final push to break away from channel
Bank Nifty has paused for 2 days, remains the key
Financial Nifty weekly expiry today

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 17600 Put and 17700 Call together))
Option writers zone: 17,510-17,790
Market’s texture is still “Buy on dips”
Chasing gap ups or momentum not advisable
Buy zone: 17,550-17,600, stop: 17,510
Sell zone: 17,675-17,725, stop: 17,790

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has paused for 2 days now
Today, keep an eye on how Kotak Bank moves
If gap up sustains in Kotak, can help Bank Nifty
Important levels for Bank Nifty: 40,500-40,600
50 DMA for Bank Nifty placed at 40,600
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty longs at 40,500
Buy on dips, with stop loss of 40,600
If no major dip, then first hour low becomes stop loss

Good morning

BIG DAY OF TRADE
Global markets buy time ahead of FOMC minutes
Minutes of first FOMC meet since the banking crisis
Back home, Bank Nifty fires after 2-day pause
IT stocks nervous ahead of TCS nos, commentary
FIIs cover shorts again, net shorts down 80,000 from peak
Big question: Can the Nifty make final push out of channel?

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Bitcoin is now past the $30,000 mark
Bitcoin has now almost doubled from lows
A bitcoin rally is normally always followed by equities
Global asset classes now firmly pricing in Fed pause
Bigger trigger is if and when will Fed start cutting rates
Today’s CPI print in the US most important to watch

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has made a major double bottom at 16,800
Nifty is now getting ready to test 18,000 plus
Last remaining resistance zone at 17,750-17,800
“Buy on dips” till 17,500 is respected on close
For day traders, buy zone at 17,650-17,700, stop: 17,600
For day traders, profit booking zone at 17,775-17,800

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s approach now should be positional
Bank Nifty is getting ready for new all-time highs
Last remaining resistance: 41,577-41,731
41,577-41,731 represent Feb and March closing highs
Stop loss for positional traders now at 40,800
“Buy on all dips” is working in Bank Nifty

Good morning

BIG MACRO CHEER
RBI proven right, inflation data vindicates pause
Rates have peaked in India, close to peak in US
Interest rate pause is valuation positive for equities
Markets always moves 6 months ahead of economy
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank likely to lead a big Bank Nifty rally now
Bank Nifty on course for new all-time high
IT stocks will also fully price in a recession by this quarter

TCS NUMBERS AND IT
TCS numbers prove market’s worries were right
IT stocks are very close to 52-week lows
Biggest negative in TCS commentary is uncertainty
Next 3 months will lead to good bargain in IT stocks
Trading wise, IT will keep a lid on Nifty in near-term
Market’s leadership in near-term will remain with Banks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Simple trade today: “Buy the gap down”
Buy even if there is no Gap down, add on dip
Stop loss to follow for day traders: 17,700
Weekly expiry today, momentum firmly with bulls
17800, 17850 and 17900 Call

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Keep an eye on HDFC Bank, close to life high
Bank Nifty is now headed towards all-time high
Best approach is to keep trailing stop loss
Near-term traders can trail stop to previous day’s low
Last remaining resistance: 41,577-41,731
41,577-41,731 represent Feb and March closing highs

Bank Nifty 😍

GM

GAP DOWN IN UPTREND
Normally, gap down in uptrend is bought
Infosys ADR indicates 6-8% fall in trade today
HDFC Bank nos decent, but positioning strong
Bank Nifty much stronger than Nifty
FIIs on a buying spree in cash markets
FII short positions down to 29,000 from 1.94 lakh peak

INFOSYS, HDFC BANK: IMPACT ON MARKET
Weight of HDFC Bank in Nifty: 10%
Weight of Infosys in Nifty: 7%
If Infosys opens 7% down, will hurt Nifty by 90 pts
All of SGX Nifty’s loss is because of Infosys
Market might give benefit of doubt to HDFC Bank
Market may focus on HDFC Bk’s Balance sheet instead of P&L
HDFC Bank has 33% weight in Bank Nifty

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Dips in uptrend should always be bought
Huge build-up at 17800 Put, premium Rs 60 ((Show 17800 Put))
Best buy zone for Nifty: 17,717-17,730, stop: 17,685
17,717 and 17,730 are Nifty’s low for last 2 days
Profit taking zone for Nifty: 17,825-17,842
17,825 and 17,842 are Nifty’s high for last 2 days
For positional longs, stop loss on close: 17,655
Nifty IT is likely to keep a lid on Nifty again
Bank Nifty will have to do majority of work

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see market’s reaction to HDFC Bank
Bank Nifty extremely overbought in near-term
Need to now buy Bank Nifty on a reaction
According to options, first base for Bank Nifty at 41,800
Need to buy Bank Nifty in 41,800-41,900 zone, stop: 42,600
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now also at 42,600
Bank Nifty may now go through some consolidation
After consolidation, another move to 43,000 is possible