Podcast.

My editors round table is back. I look at some fascinating data. Sure you will like it.

GM

A BLOCKBUSTER MONDAY?
Spectacular nos from ICICI, stock has shorts
Reliance numbers a beat on all parameters
Reliance stock has been weak into earnings
Big relief for HDFC twins and HDFC Life
Buyback announcement from Wipro
Start of expiry week, cues very strong for breakout
If today also Nifty doesn’t break out, will be negative

BIG NUMBERS AND MARKETS
ICICI Bank
Stock has over 8% weight in Nifty
Stock has 28% weight in Bank Nifty
Stock has fallen 8% from its recent highs
Very strong nos, NIMs almost at 5% mark
Only worry: Mgmt says this margin may not be sustainable
Stock trades at very expensive valuations

Reliance
Stock has over 10% weight in Nifty
Proves the adage “old is gold”
Numbers driven mainly by O2C business

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Current 200 DMA is at 17,605
This week’s most crucial level: 17,750-17,850
Massive covering if Nifty takes out 17,850
1.68 cr shares Open Int at 17,700 Call
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,500
Need to see reaction to ICICI and Reliance today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Highest build-up at 42,000 Put and 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty can test new highs if it holds 41,500
Bank Nifty has now seen one-week consolidation
Time to take fresh positional bet on Bank Nifty now
Bank Nifty can be bought with 41,500 stop loss
For day traders, 42,500-42,600 remains profit taking zone
Aggressive short covering will happen above 42,700
Sell trade only if Bank Nifty rejects 42,500-42,600
For any sell trade, a very strict stop loss of 42,700

Good morning

MARKET: FRESH BREAKOUT
Bank Nifty has led a fresh breakout for market
Bank Nifty can now hit new highs in May
Nifty respected both “sell” and “buy” trades yesterday
Bigger trade was generated on long side from big support
Market’s reaction to earnings has been very mature
Yesterday’s rally was broad based within Index

INDIA: DECOUPLING FROM THE WORLD
Indian market among best performing markets
This month: Midcap Index up 4%, Small Cap up 5%
Most of the global facing results are now over
Now, big results will be from domestic economy facing cos
Except IT, most sectoral indices in strong uptrend
FMCG, Cap Goods, Consumption, Infra at new high
Nifty Bank now within 3% of a new life high
Auto, Private Bank Index within 4% of life time high
Nifty IT is within 3% of 52-week low

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s low yesterday: 17,612
Nifty’s 200 DMA: 17,614
Nifty respected the sell zone first at 17,700-17,750
Nifty then respected the big buy zone of 17,575-17,625
Nifty’s close yesterday is a very significant positive
((Show 17700 Call and 17700 Put in same screen))
Next resistance for Nifty now at 17,802
Big resistance on closing basis at 17,828
17,828 was the closing high of April series
Close above 17,828 can take Nifty to 18,035 as well

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Approach on Bank Nifty was simple: Its positional buy
Bank Nifty consolidated for a week, broke out yesterday
Simple trade now on Bank Nifty is to carry
Stop loss on Bank Nifty now should be yesterday’s low
With stop loss of 42,250, now Bank Nifty should be carried
Another 2000 point rally has opened up on Bank Nifty now
Today is Fin Nifty expiry, might lead to some consolidation
May series may see Bank Nifty at 45,000 for first time

GM

MAKE OR BREAK SESSION
Market consolidated after Monday’s breakout
Indian market continues to ignore weak global cues
Most numbers ex of IT continue to look very strong
Domestic economy facing cos delivering stellar nos
Ex of IT, most big indices are close to life highs
Today is penultimate day of April series
If Nifty crosses yesterday high, expect fireworks
Nifty’s 200 DMA of 17,625 remains biggest support

BIG DOMESTIC TRIGGERS
Bajaj Auto and Tata Consumer post big nos
Tata Cons posts India biz growth of 15%
Tata Cons posts margin of 14.1% vs 13.4%
Bajaj Auto margins up 2.2% to 19.3%
Bajaj’s Domestic revenue grew in double digit
For both cos, domestic results better than exports
India’s economy has shown very strong resilience

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about breaking yesterday’s range
Yesterday’s high: 17,807, low: 17,716
Buy zone for today: 17,675-17,725, stop: 17,625
Sell zone for today: 17,800-17,850, stop: 17,900
Need to see how RIL and TCS move in trade today
TCS has started to show big moves recently
Ex of Infosys, most Index heavies are close to breakouts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Approach on Bank Nifty remains a positional buy
Bank Nifty remains strong till 42,250 is held
With stop loss of 42,250, now Bank Nifty should be carried
Fin Nifty expiry damaged Bank Nifty in yesterday last hour
Another 2000 point rally has opened up on Bank Nifty now
May series may see Bank Nifty at 45,000 for first time
For day traders, buy zone at 42,500-42,600, stop: 42,400
For day traders, sell zone at 42,800-42,900, stop: 42,950

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have respected the buy zone and lower levels. Again a testimony that levels matter when markets get ranged

GM

EXPIRY OF APRIL SERIES
Market likely to ignore global weakness once again
Nifty has momentum, monthly high of 17,863 on target
Bank Nifty remains the leader, on course for new highs
Nifty IT will continue to cap gains of Nifty
Big day today from numbers point of view

BIG DAY: EARNINGS AND EXPIRY
Strong earnings from Bajaj Fin and Canfin Homes
Poor numbers from Coforge in midcap IT
Today’s nos: HUL, Axis, Wipro and Tech M
Expect good nos from HUL and Axis
Expect muted nos from Wipro and Tech M
Street likely to focus on domestic based cos again
Need to see the impact on RIL from NSE’s rule on demerger

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about two levels on Nifty
Levels to watch: 17,711 and 17,863
17,711 is yesterday’s low and 17,863 is series high
Nifty’s texture has been “Buy on dips”, profit booking at highs
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,750-17,800, stop: 17,700
Profit booking zone for Nifty: 17,850-17,900
If Nifty trades above 17,900, can see further covering
Can look at Call options if Nifty crosses 17,900
A 3 pm move possible, will review in Closing

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains a positional buy
Yesterday, Bank Nifty defended 42,500 and rallied over 350 points
Small resistance seen at 43,000, Heavy Call writing visible
Big move likely if 43,050 is crossed
Positional stop loss remains same at 42,250
For day traders: Buy zone at 42,600-42,700, stop: 42,450
For day trades: Profit booking zone at 42,950-43,000
If 43,050 is crossed, can look at Call options
A 3 pm move possible, will review in Closing

GM

HELLO MAY
May series starts with optimism vs peak pessimism of Apr
Market not yet reached parabolic phase of euphoria
At some point in May, market will become hugely overbought
Bank Nifty is likely to hit a new high in May series
Current market most rewarding for positional traders
One last burst of big move possible in both Nifty and Bank Nifty
Other highlight of April was midcap rally, Midcap Index up 5%

MAY SERIES: CUES TO WATCH
Most important cue: Fed meeting next week
Most big midcap earnings will start from next week
Today’s nos: Ultratech, L&T Fin, M&M Fin, SBI Card
Tomorrow’s nos: Kotak, RBL Bank
Next week nos: Ambuja, Tata Steel, Chola, Godrej Prop
Next week nos: Hero Moto, MRF, Petronet, Tata Chem, TVS Motor, Bharat Forge
Political cues: Karnataka polls on May 10, results on May 13

TRADE SETUP
FIIs starting May series at 41% long
FII net shorts at 20,000 vs peak of nearly 2 lakh
((Show FII long-short chart))
Marketwide rollover very strong at 89%
Nifty rollover at 64%, Bank Nifty at 82%, Stock futures at 93%
Nifty futures Open Int at 89 lakh vs 1.53 cr at start of April
Nifty futures saw overall cut of 32% in Open Interest in series
Last time Nifty had such small Open Int was in Oct 2020
Bank Nifty futures saw overall cut of 53% in Open Interest

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s strategy is now simple: Carry with trailing stop
For now, trailing stop can be adjusted to yesterday’s low

Date Nifty lows
Apr 27 17797
Apr 26 17711
Apr 25 17716
Apr 24 17612
Apr 21 17553

Normally first day of new series is strong after good series
Next big resistance level: 18,032
Profit taking zone: 18,025-18,075
Buy zone for today: 17,850-17,900, stop: 17,790
Sell zone for strict intra-day: 18,025-18,075, stop: 18,100

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty had strong close at 43,000
Bank Nifty now 1150 points away from life high
Possible to see Bank Nifty hit new high in first/second week
45,000 is possible at some point in May series
Time to book profit in Bank Nifty at 44,500-45,000
For today, need to play a range of 43,000-43,500
Buy zone: Wait for dip after gap up, stop: first hour low
Sell zone: 43,300-43,500, stop: 43,600