Good morning

BIG MACRO CHEER
RBI proven right, inflation data vindicates pause
Rates have peaked in India, close to peak in US
Interest rate pause is valuation positive for equities
Markets always moves 6 months ahead of economy
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank likely to lead a big Bank Nifty rally now
Bank Nifty on course for new all-time high
IT stocks will also fully price in a recession by this quarter

TCS NUMBERS AND IT
TCS numbers prove market’s worries were right
IT stocks are very close to 52-week lows
Biggest negative in TCS commentary is uncertainty
Next 3 months will lead to good bargain in IT stocks
Trading wise, IT will keep a lid on Nifty in near-term
Market’s leadership in near-term will remain with Banks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Simple trade today: “Buy the gap down”
Buy even if there is no Gap down, add on dip
Stop loss to follow for day traders: 17,700
Weekly expiry today, momentum firmly with bulls
17800, 17850 and 17900 Call

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Keep an eye on HDFC Bank, close to life high
Bank Nifty is now headed towards all-time high
Best approach is to keep trailing stop loss
Near-term traders can trail stop to previous day’s low
Last remaining resistance: 41,577-41,731
41,577-41,731 represent Feb and March closing highs

Bank Nifty 😍

GM

GAP DOWN IN UPTREND
Normally, gap down in uptrend is bought
Infosys ADR indicates 6-8% fall in trade today
HDFC Bank nos decent, but positioning strong
Bank Nifty much stronger than Nifty
FIIs on a buying spree in cash markets
FII short positions down to 29,000 from 1.94 lakh peak

INFOSYS, HDFC BANK: IMPACT ON MARKET
Weight of HDFC Bank in Nifty: 10%
Weight of Infosys in Nifty: 7%
If Infosys opens 7% down, will hurt Nifty by 90 pts
All of SGX Nifty’s loss is because of Infosys
Market might give benefit of doubt to HDFC Bank
Market may focus on HDFC Bk’s Balance sheet instead of P&L
HDFC Bank has 33% weight in Bank Nifty

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Dips in uptrend should always be bought
Huge build-up at 17800 Put, premium Rs 60 ((Show 17800 Put))
Best buy zone for Nifty: 17,717-17,730, stop: 17,685
17,717 and 17,730 are Nifty’s low for last 2 days
Profit taking zone for Nifty: 17,825-17,842
17,825 and 17,842 are Nifty’s high for last 2 days
For positional longs, stop loss on close: 17,655
Nifty IT is likely to keep a lid on Nifty again
Bank Nifty will have to do majority of work

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see market’s reaction to HDFC Bank
Bank Nifty extremely overbought in near-term
Need to now buy Bank Nifty on a reaction
According to options, first base for Bank Nifty at 41,800
Need to buy Bank Nifty in 41,800-41,900 zone, stop: 42,600
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now also at 42,600
Bank Nifty may now go through some consolidation
After consolidation, another move to 43,000 is possible

GM

EARNINGS SPOIL MOOD
Infosys and HDFC twins dragged Nifty by 155 points
Ex of Infosys and HDFC twins, Nifty up 33 points
Nifty has come back to the edge of the channel again ((Show Nifty))
Bank Nifty respected first base of 41,800 beautifully
If HDFC Bank crosses yesterday’s high, it wont look back
Strength visible in ICICI Bank, Kotak and SBI
In near-term, Bank Nifty remains the leader

FII NUMBER AND INFOSYS
Infosys saw delivery based selling of 3.1 cr shares
Value of delivery based selling at Rs 4,000 cr
FII holding in Infosys at 36%, highest in IT stocks
MF holding in Infosys at 18%, highest in IT stocks
Ex of Infosys, FIIs would have net bought
Infosys now trades at 19x but EPS growth at risk

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty violated first base, but defended second base
Yesterday’s low in Nifty hugely significant
Yesterday’s low was event driven hence very important
Nifty’s low yesterday: 17,574, current 200 DMA: 17,568
17,550-17,570 now becomes make or break zone for Nifty
Nifty’s texture of “Buy on dips” changes only on close below 17,500
For today, buy zone at 17,600-17,650, stop loss: 17,550
Yesterday’s open of 17,863 was also the high
17,863 now becomes most important resistance
Sell zone: 17,775-17,825, stop loss: 17,863

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced straight from first base of 41,800
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank again
Kotak Bank showing some signs of taking leadership
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, stock back above 900
Fin Nifty expiry today may impact Bank Nifty
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,400-42,500
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 41,800-42,100

GM

NIFTY: OPEN HIGH
Date Open High
April 17 17863 17863
April 18 17766 17766

NIFTY: INSIDE DAY
Date High Low
April 17 17863 17574
April 18 17766 17610

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how IT and Reliance move in trade today
Reliance spoiled the move yesterday, IT recovered
Traders need to play the range smartly today
Nifty’s first range: 17,610-17,766
Nifty’s bigger range: 17,574-17,863
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,775-17,825, stop: 17,875

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some consolidation
42,400-42,500 remains profit booking zone
Aggressive traders can sell in 42,400-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,100, stop: 42,800
For fresh breakout, HDFC Bank needs to stop falling
ICICI Bank has also run up a lot ahead of numbers
Bank Nifty may attempt new high in May after some consolidation

GM

FRUSTRATING WEEKLY CONTRACT ENDS
Highlight of this week has been a tight range
Market has been falling but not by a lot
A trend likely to emerge next week
This week: Nifty down 1%, Bank Nifty up 0.05%, RIL down 0.15%
This week: Nifty IT down 6%
Monday low: 17,574, yesterday low: 17,579
Current 200 DMA is at 17,587
Next week likely to be a make or break week for market

MARKET: A PATTERN?
Nifty fell from 17750 to 16950 in March
Nifty rallied from 16950 to 17828 in April first half
Nifty has fallen from 17828 to 17618 in 3 days this week
Big question: Is this again a trend reversal back to 17000?
If Nifty falls and closes below 17,500, texture will change again

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Call writers have huge conviction vs Put writers
Today’s trade is about expiry day and levels
Need to see if Call writer can defend levels
Every short trader would have put stop loss at 17,700
Every long trader would have put stop loss at 17,574
Traders need to play the range of 17,574-17,700 smartly
A 3 pm move possible, will take a view in afternoon

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now showing some tiredness
Bank Nifty needs to fall to 41,500-41,800 for positional buying
Bank Nifty now “Sell on rally” till 42,600 is crossed
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,300-42,500, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 41,900-42,000, stop: 41,800
For Bank Nifty, important to see when HDFC Bank selling ends
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, positioning will be important

Today's high is 16 point lower than the upper end and today's low is 16 points higher than the lower end suggested in Setup. This is just to convey to people the importance of level based trading when it is working.

Good morning

STUCK IN A RANGE
Nifty has still not broken Monday high or low
Nifty’s battle is now about 17,574 and 17,863
Winner of this battle will take 500 points quickly
Indian market has absorbed poor results well
Higher probability of break out than break down
Reliance, ICICI Bank nos to decide near-term move

MARKET: SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTH
Nifty made higher high and higher low yesterday
Nifty ended 3 day losing streak yesterday

Date Nifty High Nifty low
Apr 17 17863 17574
Apr 18 17766 17610
Apr 19 17666 17579
Apr 20 17684 17584

Bank Nifty is almost 500 points above Monday low
Broader market has shown no signs of weakness

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has been repeatedly defending 200 DMA
200 DMA on Nifty is rising 200 DMA
Current 200 DMA on Nifty is at 17596
Monday low of 17574 remains line in sand
Buy zone for Nifty: 17,575-17,625, stop: 17,550
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,700-17,750, stop: 17,800
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank has started to show strength once again
If HDFC Bank takes out Monday high, expect big rally
ICICI Bank nos tomorrow, positioning will be key
Bank Nifty has been much stronger than Nifty
Bank Nifty’s significant resistance at 42,567
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty: 42,450-42,550
Aggressive traders can sell in 42450-42550 zone, stop: 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 42,050-42,150, stop: 41,950
Square off all positions by 3:20 today
Monday morning, market runs risk of gap up/down