Above 18,925, what momentum 💪

ABKI BAAR 20,000?
Good chance of Nifty hitting 20,000 in July itself
18000-19000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be quick
India growth story intact, market nowhere near bubble
Corrections will keep happening, stay invested
Identify strong stocks and buy them on every dip
Big themes: Autos, FMCG, Real Estate and Home improvement

MARKET: CUES TO WATCH
July series starts, Nifty Open Int at 91 lakh
Nifty Open Int higher than 87 lakh at June start
Marketwide Open Int higher than start of June series
Marketwide positions higher due to big rally in Stocks
Big cue to watch will be earnings, especially in IT
Domestic earnings will be strong, IT can be the dark horse

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 18,875-18,925
Bigger support zone: 18,750-18,850
SGX Nifty indicating 100 point gap up
Any intra-day dip needs to be bought
Trailing stop loss for all long positions at 18,875 now
Positional longs should not be in a hurry to book
On every 200 point rally, adjust trailing stop by 100 points
Positional longs should aim at exiting only at 20,000
No thoughts of shorting, even if market starts to fall

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has underperformed in June series
Bank Nifty can outperform after last 2 days breakout
Every dip in Bank Nifty should be used to buy
HDFC Bank is all set to continue leadership position
SBI, ICICI Bank have shown bottoming signs
Bank Nifty can move to 45,000 very fast
Keep trailing stop loss of 43,800 for all longs
For intra-day, buy on dips with first hour low as stop
Absolutely no thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty

TODAY’S BIG STOCKS
MCX:
Stock can be biggest F&O loser
Could not make transition to new software in time
This was a binary event, stock was positioned for rally

HDFC AMC
Big relief on TER front from SEBI
Block deal overhang is over
Needs 10% rally to cross MSCI threshold

GM

NIFTY: PARABOLIC MOVE
No signs of nervousness in market
Fresh move to 20,000 on Nifty has started
Both Bank Nifty and Nifty IT set to participate
Small Cap Index still has room for 10-15% quick rally
Use this rally to exit poor stocks, add good stocks on dip
HDFC twins could see more traction, Morgan Stanley bullish
Monsoon has progressed dramatically well, July to be normal
Auto sales impacted by delayed monsoon, benefit of doubt likely

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,197.64 Cr in Cash (10,469.81- 9,272.17 Cr)
FII Net Buy 6,397.13 Cr in Cash (19,439.74- 13,042.61 Cr)

FII Net Buy 1539.93 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 1037.28 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +1540 Cr
Long +17000
Short +680

FII Net Long Contracts at 72400

FIIs in Index Futures
Long 69%
Short 31%

Nifty PCR at 1.58 vs 1.40

Delivery buying of Rs 2,500 cr plus in HDFC Bank
Delivery buying of Rs 1,500 cr plus in HDFC
Delivery buying of Rs 1200 cr plus in Infosys

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Positional longs should trail stop loss to 19,000
Book profit today on first sign of trouble
For fresh buying, wait for a dip to 19,000
Market’s texture is 1 step back, 2 forward
No thoughts of shorting, market very strong
Resistance zone for today: 19,250-19,300
If 19,300 is crossed, fast move to 19,500 is possible

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank should lead Bank Nifty again
Another foreign brokerage resumes coverage
Morgan Stanley has target of Rs 2,110 on HDFC Bank
Profit booking zone for near-term traders: 45,000
Positional longs should trail stop loss now to 44,200
Fresh buy zone: 44,000-44,200
ICICI bank and SBI need to participate for bigger move

Should book profits here

What a move in HDFC Bank!!!!!!!!!!!

Had suggested this thesis 10 days ago

Good morning

TRIPLE ENGINE IN MARKET?
Reliance joined in the party yesterday
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 900 cr in RIL
Bank Nifty very strong, IT saw some profit taking
First signs of euphoria in broader markets
Top 39 traded stocks in green, many with poor quality
241 stocks on BSE at new high, keep an eye on this
Market is now over extended, some consolidation healthy
((Show Nifty’s chart that Subhash has sent))

FIN NIFTY: LAST 5 TUESDAYS
Date Day low Close
June 27 19555 19788
June 20 19302 19502
June 13 19372 19469
June 6 19407 19479
May 30 19493 19606

HDFC BANK: MORE TO GO?
Stock is up 9% in last 12 days
Delivery volume of Rs 7500 cr in last 3 days
Stock now at 10% discount to average multiples
Clear signs of big FII buying in stock
ADR premium now at 12% vs 18% 2 weeks back

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Only strategy in market is to now trail stop loss
Trailing stop loss for positional longs: 19,100
Fresh entry zone: 19,225-19,275, stop loss: 19,100
No thoughts of shorting till 19,100 is holding
Profit booking zone for day traders: 19,400-19,500
Profit booking target for positional longs: 20,000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has met logical target of 45,000
HDFC Bank saw first signs of profit taking
Move has now shifted to PSU Banks
SBI led the move, BOB and Canara joined in
Trailing stop for positional longs now: 44,500
Fresh entry zone: 44,800-45,000, stop: 44,500
No thoughts of shorting

Good morning

LIFE AT LIFE HGH
Powerful FII buying continues even at new highs
India stands out as the best market globally
China stimulus fails to move money from India to China
Indian market now approaching 20x PE at Nifty level
Anecdotally, market peaks out at 22x PE
Big question: Is Indian market now getting re-rated?
18,000-19,000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be like bullet train
Investors need to periodically keep reviewing portfolio

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 19,200
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 19,200
Profit booking zone for conservative traders: 19,500
Profit booking zone for aggressive traders: 20,000
Fresh entry zone: 19,250-19,300
19,250-19,300 has been the low of last 2 days
No thoughts of shorting this market
If dip doesn’t come, buy with 19,300 as stop loss

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s base has now moved up to 45,000
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 44,950
Bank Nifty has now opened a move to 48,000-50,000
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI can all rally 10% from here
Fresh entry zone: 45,050-45,150, stop loss: 44,950
No thoughts of shorting

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 785.48 Cr in Cash (7,026.14- 7,811.62 Cr)
FII Net Buy 2,134.33 Cr in Cash (8,783.66- 6,649.33 Cr)

Bajaj Twins Delivery Value
Bajaj Finance 1200 Cr
Bajaj Finserv 450 Cr

FII Net Buy 1172.98 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1,254.87 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 1173 Cr
Long +13820
Short +1445

FII Long Exposure
At Series Start 66%
Now 72%

FII long contracts almost at 90,000

Long-short chart

Nifty PCR at 1.47 vs 1.48

F&O Ban: IBULHSGFIN

Federal Bank
362% jump in delivery volume
Delivery volume of Rs 260 cr
Stock crossed 200 DMA yesterday
About 8% away from 52-w highs

LIC Hsg Fin
Will be part of Nifty Fin Services Index
Stock has valuation comfort among NBFCs
Stock trades 12% off 52-w highs