GM

TRADE SETUP
SGX Nifty indicating start around 18,000
Market’s pattern is gap up, consolidation, 3 pm rally
FIIs on buy side for 2 days in a row now
Brazil elects far left president
India now only investible basket in BRICS
Today’s move should be about 17,800 Call writer
17,800 Call has highest Open Int, prem at Rs 120
17,800 Call writer in trouble if Nifty sustains 17,920-17,950
If Nifty goes close to 18,000, algo traders will book profit
Positionally, it’s a buy and hold market, intra-day buy on dips
Buying at 3 pm daily and squaring off in morning is working

BIG DAY TODAY
US Fed chair Powell sounds very hawkish
Most risk assets see major sell off
Expiry today, “Buy on dips” has worked

NIFTY SETUP
Weekly Options Expiry today
18000 Put OI at 76 lk shares, premium of Rs 37
First support for Nifty at 17,960
Major support for Nifty at 17,900
Buying around 17,960 with 17,900 as stop has good risk-reward
If 17,900 is broken, then 17,723 will be next major support
Nifty has shown signs of reclaiming all-time highs
IT’s rally could be over, may not support Nifty any more

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty remains strong despite recent weakness
Bank Nifty has well defined boundaries for today
40,500 Put and 41,300 Call have highest Open Interest
Buying close to 40,600 with 40,500 as stop may work today
HDFC Bank has started to see massive traction
Matter of when and not if Bank Nifty hits new high

Nifty low17959.2 and then moved to 18020 🙏

Trade setup has worked to the dot today. People who trusted the market's message should now take money home and enjoy the day. You have got the cream move of 100 Nifty points and almost 400 Bank Nifty

But let me repeat: Market is ready for all time highs

Good morning

The Indian market is sniffing new highs despite global weakness. Can the outperformance continue?

INDIA VS GLOBE
Indian market remains best performing market
Sensex is now within 1.2% of life-time high
Old economy stocks outperforming globally

GLOBAL CUES
News from China mixed from India point of view
China not relenting on zero covid policy
US tech majors now threatening to break 2020 lows
Meta has already reached a 7 year low

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty bounced right from first support of 17,960
Nifty’s major support range now 17,960-17,900
Nifty’s texture remains “Buy on dips”
Congestion zone for Nifty at 18,200-18,300
IT stocks unlikely to offer major support to Nifty
Heavy lifting needs to be done by Banks, FMCG, Autos

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
40,500 is now line in sand for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty set for new all time high soon
Some congestion likely at highs of 41,800
SBI hit new high yesterday, ICICI may follow
HDFC Bank has also started to see buying

Good morning. Thanks for all the feedback.

Good morning

NEW HIGHS SOON
SBI can power Bank Nifty to new highs
Traction in Reliance, Nifty also eyes new high
Dollar Index retreats, FIIs have started buying
India likely to see $25-50 bn FII+FDI flows
Biggest risk in India is to not invest

GLOBAL SETUP
India remains the best performing market globally
Unless US collapses, global cues won’t hurt
Only risk for India from globe is via crude prices
If crude crosses 100, will act as irritant for India

NIFTY SETUP
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 18,063
First resistance for Nifty at 18,237
Prudent to book profit at 18,237 for Friday longs
Positional longs need to trail stop loss to 18,063
Above 18,237, next level to watch is 18,288
Reliance showing massive strength
Bank Nifty plus Reliance is a strong combination
Market holiday tomorrow, need to see 3 pm move

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Financial Nifty’s expiry today
SBI likely to lead Bank Nifty to new highs
First resistance for Bank Nifty at 41,650
Traders need to book profit at 41,650
Above 41,650, next resistance at all time highs
Alert: All-time high for Bank Nifty at 41,840

Good morning

MARKET STRUCTURE
Indian markets continue to outperform
Daily pattern: Gap up, minor decline, 3 pm rally
Playing for gap up or positional long both working
Dollar Index at 109.6 vs peak of nearly 115

NIFTY SETUP
Nifty now very close to 52-w and life high
Alert: 52 w high at 18,351 and life high at 18,604
18,350 would be a good zone to book some profits
After gap up, 18250 would be a good entry zone
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 18,050
18,050 now strict stop loss for positional bulls

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty could open at all time high
Alert: Current all time high on Bank Nifty at 41,840
No major Call writing on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty remains the strongest Index
Traders can look at booking profit around 42,000

Good morning

GLOBAL MARKET: TURNING POINT?
US market has reversed from a major trendline
Indian market still remains extremely resilient
Crypto market has seen a bloodbath
Big question: Has global market started a sharp correction?
FII buying momentum slowed yesterday

GLOBAL CUES
US inflation to decide next course of action
If US falls 15% from here, India will fall 5%
If US doesn’t fall, India will rally 5%
If US rallies 5% from here, India will rally 15%

NIFTY SETUP
Swing traders should now book profit
Nifty’s rally will now resume only above 18,300
On downside, closing stop loss should be raised to 18,050
Intra-day stop loss should be raised to 17,950
Market may shake consensus trade of “Buy on dips”
VIX showing signs of bottoming out
((Show Nifty Calls and Puts here))

BANK NIFTY SETUP
((Show Bank Nifty options))
Bank Nifty remains the strongest Index
Need to see Axis Bank after block deal
Clean out trade by SUUTI in Axis Bank
SBI, ICICI Bank will be key factors for Bank Nifty

STOCK IN FOCUS: ITC
ITC in focus because of Axis block deal
SUUTI will be out of Axis after block deal
Market will now ask if ITC will be next
SUUTI holds around 7.3% stake in ITC
SUUTI’s stake value in ITC is now at Rs 32,000 cr
SUUTI’s gain this year in ITC stake is over Rs 12,000 cr