The weekly podcast

GM

BIG WEEK FOR MARKETS
Exit polls of Gujarat today
RBI MPC decision on Wednesday
Gujarat results and weekly expiry on Thursday
Market’s structure remains “Buy on dips”
Mid and Small Caps likely to extend gains

GLOBAL CUES
Friday’s reaction to jobs data very positive
Inflation worries no longer hurting market
Even in US, texture now is “Buy on dips”
10-year Bond yield in US gives up all gains
Brent crude prices inch up
China’s reopening could help commodity stocks
Global cues positive for IT, negative for Banks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18700, 18750 and 18800 Call))
Major Call writing visible at 18,700-18,800
First resistance for Nifty at 18,815
Big resistance for Nifty at 18,900
Nifty’s first support level at 18,600
Big support for Nifty at 18,550
Nifty may continue to outperform Bank Nifty
Broader markets better to trade than Index

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Straddle writing seen at 43,000
43,000 Call and Put combined prem at Rs 540
Bank Nifty has wide range of 42,500-43,500
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,800
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 43,200

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Good morning

GLOBAL WORRY VS LOCAL CHEER
US market down but exit polls good for mkt
All eyes now on tomorrow’s monetary policy
China market down, may help Indian mkt
Bank Nifty may outperform vs Nifty now on
Fin Nifty weekly expiry today

GLOBAL CUES
Interest rate worries are back in the US
Nasdaq has started to underperform again
Old economy stocks may outperform again
Big question remains if Nasdaq has reversed
Brent’s decline augurs very well for Bank Nifty

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s near-term range defined by yesterday’s high and low
Yesterday’s low: 18,591 and high: 18,728
For buy trades, 18,591 is Stop loss
For short trades, 18,728 is Stop loss
Buy zone for Nifty 18,600-18,640
Need to see Nifty IT’s behaviour after gap down
If Nifty IT recovers, Nifty will rally
For positional longs, 18,550 remains Lakshman Rekha

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty may test all-time highs soon
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 43,200
Accumulate zone for Bank Nifty at 43,000-43,100
For Bank Nifty longs, stop loss now at 42,800
Fin Nifty’s weekly expiry today

Today, keep Nifty levels in mind but look at Bank Nifty as a trade. Its set to outperform Nifty

GM

SIGNS OF GLOBAL CORRECTION
Nasdaq showing signs of entering fresh correction
Most of the good news from elections priced in
Market’s focus will now be on next week’s FOMC meet
Market’s visibility of terminal rate has been disturbed
Possible to see Nifty test the 20 DEMA

GLOBAL CUES
Brent, Dollar and Bond yield all in favour
Fresh geopolitical risks from Russia-Ukraine
China to make efforts for attracting FDI
Need to see how Chinese markets move
China market has far more valuation comfort
Will funds shift from India to China?

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty closed below 10 DEMA after defending it for 2 days
Market’s texture in near-term is now “Sell on rally”
Nifty may now slip to 20 DEMA zone of 18,440
Stop loss for shorts will be yesterday’s high of 18,668
Short trade will have conviction only if Bank Nifty weakens
18600, 18650 and 18700 Call
18600, 18700 and 18650 Put

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended its 10 DEMA of 43,040
Bank Nifty’s 20 DEMA placed at 42,627
No trade zone for Bank Nifty currently
Bank Nifty in broad range of 42,800-43,300
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank today

Live

Good morning

THE OIL TRADE
Indian market has latched on to Crude
Bank Nifty hit all time high yesterday
Bank Nifty now firm leader for market again
Nifty needs support from IT or Reliance to move
Global cues positive for markets today
FII selling continues as money moves to China
Important data on inflation lined up in US

GLOBAL CUES
Long Economy stocks, short IT trade is back
All global cues supportive of Economy trade
US markets seem to have stabilized
Bigger cue for India remains from China
China market has started to see big rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty managed to close above 10 DEMA
Big build-up seen at 18,600, 18,700 and 18,800 Call
Nifty will open in no trade zone today
Buy zone for Nifty now around 18,600
Profit booking zone for Nifty at 18,700-18,750
Above 18,750, Nifty can again test all time high
Today’s sectors to watch can be FMCG, Autos

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has started a fresh expansion
Highest build-up at 43,600 and 44,000 Calls
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty at 43,900-44,000
Bank Nifty is a buy on every small dip/consolidation

My editorial on paytm

GM

CRUCIAL WEEK
Nifty has now corrected to 20 DMA
Nifty IT has resumed its bear market
Bank Nifty remains in a bull market
Old economy vs new economy divergence playing out
Last important week from data point of view
US FOMC meet outcome on Wednesday
US CPI data to be released as well

GLOBAL CUES
Dollar Index now trading at 200 DMA
Need to see Dollar’s move from here
US 10 year yields have moved up again
Brent oil continues to move lower
India vs China will be another event to watch

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty set to open around 20 DEMA of 18,455
First trade should be to buy with Friday low as stop
Alert: Friday’s low was 18,410
Longs should be exited if Nifty trades below 18,400
Not a right zone to open short positions
Short positions only if Nifty closes below 18,400
Profit booking zone for intra-day longs at 18,610
Profit booking zone for positional longs at 18,660

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty closed at life high on Friday
Bank Nifty remains in firm “Buy on dips” mode
Bank Nifty has unfinished business at 44,000