keep an eye on that

Pls see and share if you like. Happy new year everyone. 🙏🙏

Happy new year to my Telegram family. Love you all.

Good morning. Sorry got late

HAPPY NEW YEAR!
First month of new year extremely important
Big cues ahead: Earnings, budget
2023 also big year for political cues
January gives indication of global fund flows
India vs China is going to remain a big theme
India has seen 2 back to back years of FII selling
Domestic liquidity will remain strong this year too

IMPORTANT CUES ((Instead of global))
Auto sales present a mixed bag
Inflation pressure will be seen in many sectors
Need to keep an eye on commodity cues
High commodity prices are negative for India macro
Need to see growth data of Banks this week

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Friday’s short setup worked well
Nifty set to open in a very strong support zone
Friday shorts should book profit on decline
Buying in 18,000-18,050 zone has worked
Stop loss for long trades will be at 17,967
Will revisit Nifty if it breaks 17,967
Profit booking zone for longs at 18,225-18,250

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains stronger index
Bank Nifty will offer good risk-reward today
Stop loss for Bank Nifty at 42,833
If 42,833 breaches, then need to wait
Below 42,833, buy zone will be around 42,600
42,394 is Lakshman Rekha for Bank Nifty

Live

Nifty ended just 20 point short of profit booking range suggested in morning

gm

A SMART TRADER’S MARKET
Market respecting upper and lower zone
Buying at lows and selling at highs working
Nifty respected setup, Bank Nifty volatile
Market’s real trend will emerge from today
Volumes will now be back to normal
Most global markets will start to open now
China and metals will remain a big macro theme

GLOBAL CUES
US Bond yield inching back towards 4
Nasdaq still at risk of making lower lows
Gold and silver could outperform in 2023
Other commodities also showing rally
Indian market will have to deal with inflation
Commodity inflation can hurt domestic stocks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support for Nifty at 18,086 (yesterday low)
Major support for Nifty at 17,967
Conservative traders can buy with stop of 17,967
Aggressive traders can buy with stop of 18,086
Profit booking zone for Nifty at 18,200-18,250
Short trade for Nifty if it rejects 20 DEMA of 18,251

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Financial Nifty expiry may impact Bank Nifty
Today’s range for Bank Nifty: 42,961-43,382
Buying near 43,050 and selling near 43,350 may work
If range is broken, then follow through possible

FIRST EXPIRY OF 2023
Market was positioned for Hawkish Fed
Global markets not too negative after minutes
Nifty has been in a range of 150-300 points
Buying near 18000 and selling near 18250 working
Yesterday, shorts worked, today longs may work
Bank Nifty could lead recovery today
IT stocks may see pressure due to Microsoft factor
Microsoft CEO sees short term pressure for IT

GLOBAL CUES
Crude down, Bond yields down, Dollar Index down
All cues point to an algo trade today
Algo trade: Short IT, Buy Bank stocks
Bank Nifty likely to outperform Nifty today
Investors must add Gold, Silver in 2023 portfolio
China theme intact, Metals still have more rally left

TRADE SETUP
Institutional Flows
Institutions net sold 1847cr, highest since 11-Oct-22

FII in FNO
a. Index Futures
Longs -5457
Shorts +22046

FII positioning
Longs 36%
Shorts 64%

FIIs in Index Calls
Buying +46574
Writing +134741

FIIs in Index Puts
Buying +71743
Writing -11993


NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty saw classical rejection of 20 DEMA
Traders were advised to book profit at 20 DEMA
Today’s trade is to play for short squeeze
For all longs, simple stop loss of 17,967
Buying as close to 18,020 will be best strategy
Traders can wait for dip or buy in phases
Best way to approach is via 18,050 or 18,000 Calls
If 17,967 breaks, then long trade is negated

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty likely to see big rally today
Market was positioned for a big decline
Crude’s decline to be the trigger for Bank Nifty rally
Stop loss for Bank Nifty at 42,800
Traders can wait for dip or buy in phases
Buying as close to 42,850-42,900 best strategy
Traders should add Bank Nifty from open till 42,850
No thoughts of shorting on Bank Nifty yet
Bank Nifty remains strong till above 42,400 on close

Today's setup has failed miserably. Apologies.

Good morning

THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Market action not as bad as Index suggested
Big question is if Nifty has made a double bottom
Need to see behaviour of Bank Nifty today
Bank Nifty has led the fall in last 2 days
US jobs numbers suggest more rate hikes coming
Earnings season starts next week

GLOBAL CUES
US economy going through “silent hiring”
US mkt caught between rate hike and recession fear
China emerging as the cleanest play for 2023
Hang Seng has now rallied 45% in 2 months
This week: Hang Seng is up over 7%
Metal stocks may continue to rally for next few months

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday’s low of 17,892 higher than prev low of 17,774
Nifty not a positional short till 17,774 is intact
Shorts on Nifty are working on intra-day basis
On upside, resistance seen at 18,120
If Nifty crosses 18,120, can see big short covering

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced 300 points from lows
Yesterday low of 42,298 now sacrosanct
On upside, 42,800 will now act as resistance
42,500 Put has seen huge build-up
Need to see price action in ICICI Bank
If ICICI Bank falls to 200 DMA, Bank Nifty can fall more

Good morning

DOUBLE BOTTOM IN MARKET?
Nifty tests December low, bounces again
Market has massive shorts, covering likely
Possible to now test upper end of range again
Upper end of current range at 18,250
If today’s rally fails, will be big negative

GLOBAL CUES
US Bond yield sees massive decline
Dollar Index continues to fall
Equities, Commodities in for risk-on rally
Nasdaq led rally, IT stocks may fire today
Both IT and Banks can contribute today

NIFTY OUTLOOK
17,774 now established as near term bottom
17,774 now stop loss for all long trades
First resistance on Friday high at 18,048
Bigger covering only if Nifty sustains above 18,048
((Show 18,000 Call here))
Friday longs should book profit around 18,048
Indian market has shown signs of underperformance
Today’s trade will test Nifty’s texture of “Sell on rally”

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance for Bank Nifty at 50 DEMA of 42,428
Major resistance for Bank Nifty at 42,850-42,900
Both 10 and 20 DEMA places at 42,850-42,900
Friday low of 41,877 now most important support
((Show 42,500 Call))

Good morning.