Good morning

NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 18201 18078
Jan 25 18100 17846
Jan 27 17884 17493
Jan 30 17709 17405

BANK NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 43078 42615
Jan 25 42733 41540
Jan 27 41417 40148
Jan 30 40789 39419

BAZAR KE BADE SAWAL
Kya Adani ka FPO poora bharega?
Kya market ka sentiment buri tarah bigad chuka hai?
Kya budget ko le kar market mein koi dar hai
FIIs itni selling kyun kar rahe hain? ((Show FII bars here))

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq at very crucial make or break levels
If Nasdaq avoids double top, can rally 10% more
Indian IT stocks still showing “Buy on dips” trend
Chinese PMI at 50.1 vs est of 49.8
China theme is still to play out fully
FIIs selling in India, buying in East Asia

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty holding 200 DEMA on close
Nifty holding 200 DMA on intra-day basis
Alert: 200 DEMA at 17600 and 200 DMA at 17300
Yesterday’s low was just 100 points higher than 200 DMA
((Show the Nifty lower high and lower low plate again))
Nifty needs to make higher low to soothe nerves
Post budget rally possible if no change in tax and fed hikes by 25

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very strong buying in Banking stocks in last hour
ICICI Bank, SBI led the recovery of last hour
Yesterday’s low now meaningful for Bank Nifty
Need to see post budget behaviour of Bank Nifty
“Buy on dips” and “Sell on rally” both working
((Show Bank Nifty lower low plate again here))

Good morning

MARKET: JUDGEMENT DAY!
Market has all positive cues today
Fed hikes 25 bps, says disinflation started
Adani FPO cancelled, will there be covering?
Budget largely seen positive with no tax hikes
Nifty IT is set to extend leadership
Big question is now around Bank Nifty

ADANI SAGA: MARKET IMPACT
Adani finally withdraws its FPO
Big question now is what happens to shorts
Point to remember: Shorting in both equity, bonds
Time has come for all Banks to make a statement
Indian Banks must disclose their exposure to group

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Meta up 17% in after hours trade
IT stocks will now rally even on small positives
Nasdaq has now negated a major double top
Nasdaq successfully defends 200 DMA
Nifty IT has been trading above 200 DMA
((Show me Nasdaq and Nifty IT 1 year chart))

TRADE SETUP
Institutional Flows
FII bought 1785cr on 1st Feb 2023
1st buy after selling 24k cr in previous 7 sessions
Largest buy since 11-Nov-22

Institutions net bought
01-Feb-23 +2,315cr
Highest since 23-Dec-22

First signs of FII covering shorts in FNO market
Covered 7171 shorts, shorts still at 81%

Change in OI on index Futures- Feb 2023 contract!
Nifty -1%
Nifty Bank -10%

Nifty PCR at 0.70 vs 0.80

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s move is now all about 200 DMA
Nifty low: 17,353, current 200 DMA: 17290
Nifty protected 200 DMA by just 63 points
First test of 200 DMA is normally defended
If there is second test of 200 DMA, its broken
Nifty will have huge support from Nifty IT
This year: Nifty IT up 5%, Nifty Bank down 8%
Market’s texture remains sell on rally
Nifty’s texture changes only on close above 18,000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s move directly linked to Adani stocks now
If Adani sees short covering, Banks will see covering
If Adani stocks fall again, Bank Nifty will fall again
Crucial level to defend: Yesterday’s low of 39,490
Major support level: 200 DMA of 38,764
Bank Nifty is likely to have 500-1000 point swings
No stop loss will work in Bank Nifty in day trading

Good morning

THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Markets finally looking at some relief rally
Yesterday was first sign of stability ex of Adani group
Today’s biggest cue will be the SBI press conference
Market needs some assurances from SBI on Adani exposure
Nasdaq leading world market, yesterday’s move was priced in
Banks can have a big rally today, SBI will be key

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq is now leading a fresh bull market
Nifty IT is at the cusp of negating a major double top
Last top on IT: Dec 1 high of 31,227 and close of 31,120
Nifty IT has now recovered exactly 50% of entire decline

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Budget day high and lows are aberrations
Imp data points: Jan 30 low and Jan 31 high
First resistance for Nifty: Jan 31 high of 17735
First support for Nifty: 17446
Major support for Nifty: Jan 30 low of 17405
Buy on dips and sell on rally both should work
Need to see how Bank Nifty moves today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty recovered over 2% from day low yesterday
Level based trading will not work on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty unlikely to settle down immediately
Clear trend on Bank Nifty could emerge next week
There can be short covering if first hour high is taken out

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Good morning

GLOBAL VS LOCAL CUES
Global cues weak but local cues strong
SBI, ITC post very strong numbers
FM tells Awaaz: SBI, LIC’s Adani exposure no concern
Strong US jobs data stokes concerns of more rate hikes
Dollar Index surges, Brent crude down
IT may fall and Banks may rally again today

ADANI SAGA: WHAT NEXT?
SBI says Adani exposure at 0.88%
Axis Bank also clarifies on exposure
Good to see proactive approach by Banks
Market is ready to now move ex of Adani
Adani group stocks could see volatility

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
US jobs report may puncture the IT rally
Nifty IT has still not negated a major double top
Last top on IT: Dec 1 high of 31,227 and close of 31,120
Nifty IT has now recovered exactly 50% of entire decline
Nifty IT: Next support at 20 DMA of 29,500
Metals theme is losing sheen, need to watch China

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty will now see weakness only below 17,405
For today, Nifty in no trade zone
Nifty’s fresh rally only on close above 18,200
17700, 17600 and 17500 Puts
18200, 18100 and 18000 Calls
Nifty Bank will have to lead any rally for market
Nifty FMCG can be other pocket of strength
Nifty may not get much support from IT stocks

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has recovered over 4% from expiry day low
Bank Nifty now in a clear “Buy on dips” mode
Next resistance for Bank Nifty at 41,600
If 41,600 is sustained, even 42,000 is possible
42,000 would be a good zone to book profit
42,000 Call has highest Open Int, tough to take out

First trade of "Buy on dip" on Banks and weakness in IT played out

Lets see rest of the day

GM

STUCK IN A RANGE
Nifty directionless but signs of bottom in place
Nifty needs to close above 17,850 to force upmove
IT stocks could be ready for a fresh upmove
Reliance acting as a big problem for the market
Global cues positive, Adani factor has subdued now

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has bounced from 10 DEMA after 2-day fall
Nifty IT also very close to 10 DEMA after recent fall
IT stocks might lead in first half of the day
Banks will decide second half after the RBI policy
Dollar Index, Bonds showing signs of more rate hikes

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very strong Call writing at 17,800, prem Rs 56
Nifty has struggled to cross 17,850
Bigger rally will happen only if Nifty closes above 17,850
Put writing seen at 17700 and 17500
Nifty will become very weak below 17,635
Below 17,635 a test of 17,500 is also possible
Nifty IT should help in first hour of trade today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty needs to be seen pre and post policy
All trades on Banks should be exited before 10 am
Fresh trades on Bank Nifty only after RBI policy
Bank Nifty largely in 41,000-42,000 range
SBI’s move post numbers has been disappointing
Market lacks a trigger to break the range

RBI guv sounds hawkish.