What a move in HDFC Bank!!!!!!!!!!!

Had suggested this thesis 10 days ago

Good morning

TRIPLE ENGINE IN MARKET?
Reliance joined in the party yesterday
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 900 cr in RIL
Bank Nifty very strong, IT saw some profit taking
First signs of euphoria in broader markets
Top 39 traded stocks in green, many with poor quality
241 stocks on BSE at new high, keep an eye on this
Market is now over extended, some consolidation healthy
((Show Nifty’s chart that Subhash has sent))

FIN NIFTY: LAST 5 TUESDAYS
Date Day low Close
June 27 19555 19788
June 20 19302 19502
June 13 19372 19469
June 6 19407 19479
May 30 19493 19606

HDFC BANK: MORE TO GO?
Stock is up 9% in last 12 days
Delivery volume of Rs 7500 cr in last 3 days
Stock now at 10% discount to average multiples
Clear signs of big FII buying in stock
ADR premium now at 12% vs 18% 2 weeks back

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Only strategy in market is to now trail stop loss
Trailing stop loss for positional longs: 19,100
Fresh entry zone: 19,225-19,275, stop loss: 19,100
No thoughts of shorting till 19,100 is holding
Profit booking zone for day traders: 19,400-19,500
Profit booking target for positional longs: 20,000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has met logical target of 45,000
HDFC Bank saw first signs of profit taking
Move has now shifted to PSU Banks
SBI led the move, BOB and Canara joined in
Trailing stop for positional longs now: 44,500
Fresh entry zone: 44,800-45,000, stop: 44,500
No thoughts of shorting

Good morning

LIFE AT LIFE HGH
Powerful FII buying continues even at new highs
India stands out as the best market globally
China stimulus fails to move money from India to China
Indian market now approaching 20x PE at Nifty level
Anecdotally, market peaks out at 22x PE
Big question: Is Indian market now getting re-rated?
18,000-19,000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be like bullet train
Investors need to periodically keep reviewing portfolio

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 19,200
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 19,200
Profit booking zone for conservative traders: 19,500
Profit booking zone for aggressive traders: 20,000
Fresh entry zone: 19,250-19,300
19,250-19,300 has been the low of last 2 days
No thoughts of shorting this market
If dip doesn’t come, buy with 19,300 as stop loss

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s base has now moved up to 45,000
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 44,950
Bank Nifty has now opened a move to 48,000-50,000
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI can all rally 10% from here
Fresh entry zone: 45,050-45,150, stop loss: 44,950
No thoughts of shorting

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 785.48 Cr in Cash (7,026.14- 7,811.62 Cr)
FII Net Buy 2,134.33 Cr in Cash (8,783.66- 6,649.33 Cr)

Bajaj Twins Delivery Value
Bajaj Finance 1200 Cr
Bajaj Finserv 450 Cr

FII Net Buy 1172.98 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1,254.87 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 1173 Cr
Long +13820
Short +1445

FII Long Exposure
At Series Start 66%
Now 72%

FII long contracts almost at 90,000

Long-short chart

Nifty PCR at 1.47 vs 1.48

F&O Ban: IBULHSGFIN

Federal Bank
362% jump in delivery volume
Delivery volume of Rs 260 cr
Stock crossed 200 DMA yesterday
About 8% away from 52-w highs

LIC Hsg Fin
Will be part of Nifty Fin Services Index
Stock has valuation comfort among NBFCs
Stock trades 12% off 52-w highs

GM

19,500 TODAY?
Market very strong, all dips getting bought
Bank Nifty fell 150 pts despite 3% fall in HDFC Bank
Midcap Index again hit all time high yesterday
FII buying intact, fresh buying of Rs 1600 cr
Market going through sectoral churn in last few days
Weekly expiry today, need to see option writers behaviour
Maximum build-up at 19500 Call and 19,300 Put
If 19,451 is crossed today, expect sharp move to 19,500

RETURN OF BIG STOCKS
600 cr delivery buying in ICICI Bank yesterday
Stock hit fresh all-time high after 1-month consolidation
Stock needs another 3% rally to catch up with HDFC Bank
350 cr delivery buying in SBI yesterday
Stock still 6% away from 52-week highs
HDFC Bank: Stock still strong, will see buying if it falls to 1650
Infosys has shown signs of testing 200 DMA of 1440

Nifty High Low
July 3 19345 19234
July 4 19434 19300
July 5 19421 19339

Bank Nifty High Low
July 3 45353 44882
July 4 45655 45000
July 5 45418 45073

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 19,339-19,421
Today’s bigger range: 19,280-19,520
Buy at open if gap down of 40-50 points
Accumulation zone: 19,325-19,350
Stop loss for all long trades: 19,234
Trailing stop for all positional longs: 19,234
Profit booking zone for day traders: 19,434-19,450
If 19,451 sustains, chase via 19,450 Calls
No thoughts of shorting till 19,234 is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 45,000-45,418
Today’s bigger range: 44,900-45,550
Buy at open if gap down of 100-150 points
Accumulation zone: 44,800-45,000
Stop loss for all long trades: 44,500
Trailing stop loss for all long trades: 44,500
Profit booking zone for day trades: 45,418-45,655
No thoughts of shorting till 44,500 is holding

BIG STOCKS OF THE DAY
2-wheeler theme
Hero Moto now best placed among the lot
Hero has valuation comfort, dividend play
Hero + Harley seems like a winning combination
Need to see the booking number update

Bajaj Auto’s bike priced really attractive
After long time, Bajaj has got pricing right
Export remains the dark horse for Bajaj Auto

Eicher Motors may go through some time correction
Brokerages have downgraded PE for Royal Enfield
Tough to sustain 90% share at 43% gross margin

TVS Motor has been the best performing stock
TVS is now EV play but most expensive

Leap of faith worked today. That kind of day

:)

19500 is here 🙏

Good morning