Market strategy didn’t work today. It happens.

GM

MARKET: HEALTH CHECK
Yesterday’s price action was very disappointing.
Benefit of doubt can be given due to expiry.
Nifty made a fresh swing low for the week
Nifty’s moving averages have now moved up
Nifty’s 20 DMA at 19,555, and 20 DEMA at 19,513
Market lacking leadership at Index level
HDFC Bank, Reliance, Infy, ICICI Bank all looking tired
Big question: Can one of the big 4 take Nifty back to highs?
HDFC Bank looks most likely contender of leadership

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market has shown signs of testing 20 DMA
Need to see if Nifty is holding 20 DMA or not
First test of 20 DMA is normally defended
Buy zone for today: 19,575-19,625, stop: 19,513
Stop loss on closing basis remains 19,600
No thoughts of shorting till 20 DMA is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty action yesterday very disappointing
Bank Nifty had a false breakout above 46,200
20 DMA and 20 DEMA placed at around 45,325
Buy zone: 45,400-45,600, stop loss: 45,300
Stop loss on closing basis remains 45,100
HDFC Bank needs to be watched this series
FTSE related inflows will happen in Mid-August

An important reel on where to put stop loss.

What next for hotel stocks?

Good morning. I am on scheduled leave today.

GM

MARKET: PERFECT SETUP
Date Nifty low Nifty close
July 28 19563 19646
July 31 19597 19753

MARKET: PERFECT SETUP
Market respected the low of first day of series
Traders need to stay long with 19,563 as stop now
Midcap Index hit fresh all time high yesterday
As long as broader market is fine, market is good
Nifty needs couple of big stocks to fire
One stat to watch out: FII longs down suddenly to 51%
FIIs have also started to sell in cash market

MARKET: CUES TO TRACK
Weekly options expiry on Fin Nifty today
Last few Tuesdays have been very volatile
Brent crude above $85, windfall tax and export duty raised
Maruti: To react to nos and news on Suzuki plant
DLF: Promoter to sell stake in big block deal
Big midcap nos: PVR, Chola, Escorts

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s setup is clear: Buy with Friday low as stop
Stop loss for all long positions now: 19,563
Nifty’s Friday low is also the current 20 DEMA
Market has defended its 20 DEMA on first test
Buy at open, add zone for today: 19,650-19,750
Stop loss: 19,563
No shorting till Nifty starts to break 19,563
If 19,563 breaks, trend will change to “Sell on rally”

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has successfully defended 45,100-45,200 zone
Stop loss for all positional longs: 45,100
Bank Nifty’s low yesterday 45,359 also the 20 DEMA
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to see how it impacts
Buy zone: 45,550-45,650, add zone: 45,450-45,550
For day traders, stop loss for Bank Nifty: 45,359
Shorting opens only on close below 45,100

GM

NIFTY’S LEADERSHIP CRISIS
Stock Off highs
HUL 8%
ITC 7%
HDFC Bank 5.5%
TCS 3.5%
SBI 3%
ICICI Bank 1.5%
Reliance 5%*
*Adjusted for JFS

MARKET: IN FINE SHAPE
Midcap and Small Cap indices hit record highs yesterday
Advance/decline has been consistently very strong

MARKET: CUES FOR TODAY
Very strong sales data by Ashok Leyland
Ashok Ley’s nos prove the strength in CV cycle
CV cycle is strong means economy is strong
Dollar Index above 102, Brent crude almost $86
Only risk for Indian market is resurgence of commodity prices
If commodity surge continues, inflation might make a comeback
Market’s base case was rates have peaked and may come down

TRADE SETUP
NIFTY High Low
July 27 19867 19603
July 28 19696 19563
July 31 19772 19597
Aug 1 19795 19704

FII – DII nos

FII Cash Market Selling
Jul 27 -3979 Cr
Jul 28 -1024 Cr
Jul 31 -701 Cr
Aug 1 -93 Cr

FIIs sell 44 Cr in Index Futures

Nifty Futures Premium
Jul 27 151 Pts
Jul 28 105 Pts
Jul 31 90 Pts
Aug 1 79 Pts

FII Net Sell 44.95 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 858.26 Cr in Stock Futures

OPTION CUES
Nifty PCR at 0.92 VS 1.00

F&O BAN
STILL IN BAN: IBULHSGFIN, PEL
NEW IN BAN: HINDCOPPER

NIFTY OUTLOOK
One number to remember: 19,563
Long above 19,563, short below 19,563
First support: 19,704 (yesterday’s low)
Big support: 19,650 (options based)
Buy zone: 19,650-19,704, stop: 19,563
Stop loss for all positional longs also at 19,563
Will think about shorting only below 19,563

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 45,471 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 45,362 (20 DEMA)
Stop loss for all day trades and swing traders: 45,362
Stop loss for all positional longs: 45,100
Buy zone: 45,400-45,500, stop: 45,362

Very bad price action

Good morning

MARKET: HAS TREND CHANGED?
Nifty broke and closed below 20 DEMA yesterday
Market needed an excuse to fall, Fitch provided that
Possible to now test the 50 DEMA around 19,100
Yesterday’s fall was first bad day for broad market in this run
Market has given a warning to exit poor quality stocks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,423 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 19,385 (Options based)
First resistance: 19,550 (20 DEMA)
Bigger resistance: 19,600 (options based)
No trade on Nifty today till stability

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show Calls: 45000, 45100 and 45200
Show 45000 Call separately
Previous support of 45,100-45,200 now big resistance
First support: 44,720 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 44,550 (50 DEMA)