GM

TRADING VS INVESTMENT
Market’s near-term texture is “Sell on rally”
Market’s bigger texture is “Buy on dips”
Those who can’t do both should focus on one thing
Good trading makes profit, good investment makes wealth
Trading strategy: Sell every rally till 19,550 is back
Investment Strategy: Invest additional 10% on every 200 point fall

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Nifty Open Low Close
Aug 1 19784 19704 19733
Aug 2 19655 19423 19526
Aug 3 19463 19286 19381

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Bank Nifty Open Low Close
Aug 1 45740 45471 45592
Aug 2 45234 44720 44995
Aug 3 44862 44279 44513

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Trend: Intra-day collapse and last hour recovery
Last hour recovery is purely due to intra-day covering
Shorts still don’t have confidence to carry due to larger trend
Shorts very confident about intra-day moves
Trend will change if Nifty starts to close above 19,550
Global driven corrections are sharp but buying opportunities

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see if Nifty makes higher low/high
If Nifty makes higher low/high, uptrend can resume
Market has shorts now, short covering can be big
First resistance: 19,538 (yesterday’s high and 20 DEMA)
Second resistance: 19,617 (options based and 20 DMA)
If Nifty sustains above 19,538 then only go long
First hour low will be the stop loss for long trades
If Nifty rejects 19,538, then go short
Stop loss for all short trades: 19,538

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty very weak, no leadership from big stocks
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI all at make or break levels
Avoid any long trading in Bank Nifty till clarity emerges
Long trade on Bank Nifty only on strength above 45,100
Stop loss for long trades: First hour low
Short trade opens if Bank Nifty makes lower high
Stop loss for all short trades: 45,100

Green on green always works

Nifty's high 19,538 and Bank Nifty's high 45,118

Bigger rally only above these levels.

SBI spoiled mood today.

Lets see what mgmt says

Can nifty hit 4 lakh in next 20 years?

Lupin: what next?

GM

CURRENT MARKET: ONE TYRE PUNCTURED
Indian market has 4 big sectors: Banks, IT, Reliance and FMCG
Currently, Banking is not moving, other sectors ok
Pharma is like the spare tyre for the car, doing well
Yesterday, Nifty ended at highs and Bank Nifty at low
Fin Nifty expiry today, Banking underperformance may continue
Best trade right now is in IT and Pharma, buy on all dips

BANK NIFTY: WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
HDFC Bank in focus today, biggest component of Index
FTSE to increase weight in 3 tranches instead of 1
Banking stocks have underperformed due to 4 reasons
1) Much more decline in NIMs than expected
2) Clear signs of slowdown in credit growth
3) Asset quality deterioration
4) Valuations slightly demanding now
Avoid Bank Nifty trade till clarity emerges
RBI monetary policy this week, direction may emerge on Thursday
No long trade in Bank Nifty till it closes above 45,200
Too late to take a big short trade in Bank Nifty now

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
Aug 3 19537 19296
Aug 4 19538 19436
Aug 7 19620 19524

Nifty has now made higher high and higher low for 2 days
Nifty yesterday closed above 20 DEMA and at 10 DEMA
First resistance: 19,600-19,620 (10 DEMA and yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,680 (Options based)
If 19,680 is crossed, a sharp move to 19,795 is possible
First support: 19524-19,538 (Yesterday low and 20 DEMA)
Bigger support: 19,436-19,296 (previous swing lows)
Buy zone for today: 19,550-19,600
Add zone for today: 19,525-19,550
Strict stop loss for long trades: 19,500
Will look at short trade only if market weakens below 19,500
 

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
Aug 3 45038 44279
Aug 4 45118 44520
Aug 7 45011 44773

Bank Nifty making higher lows but highs are same
45,000-45,200 is very strong resistance for Bank Nifty
10 and 20 DEMA for Bank Nifty also placed around 45,150
Trade on Bank Nifty: Sell in 44,900-45,050 zone
Stop loss for all trades on Bank Nifty: 45,166
Buy trade only on strength above 45,166, stop loss: 45,011
Can also buy Bank Nifty on dips around 44,600-44,700
Stop loss for this buy trade: 44,550 (Around 50 DEMA)