Vey bad follow through after hitting targets.

Good morning

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,340 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 19,432 (Options based)
Sell zone: 19,325-19,375, stop loss: 19,432
First support: 19,229 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 19,187 (Options based)
Buy only on stability above 19,200, stop: 19,150

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty managed to protect 44,200 on close
First support: 44,200 (Breakout zone)
Bigger support: 43,925 (100 DMA)
First resistance: 44,359 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 44,575 (Falling 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,350-44,450, stop loss: 44,600
Buy zone: 44,000-44,100, stop loss: 43,925

GM

MARKET: GETTING OVERHEATED
Clear signs of FOMO and euphoria in midcaps
Promoter and insider selling picking up daily
Biggest of blocks are getting done in block deal window
Stocks are rallying 10% after promoter sells
Easy to make big mistakes in such market

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 19,367-19,382 (yesterday’s high and 50 DMA)
Bigger resistance zone: 19,440-19,472 (Option zone and 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 19,350-19,400, stop loss: 19,472
First support zone: 19,240-19,250 (Recent lows)
Bigger support zone: 19,185-19,210 (Options zone)
Buy only if Nifty is stable above 19,250, stop: 19,210

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Bank
Close: 44495
20 DMA 44526
50 DMA 44746

First resistance zone: 44,526-44,610 (20 DMA and yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance zone: 44,700-44,746 (Options zone and 50 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,550-44,650, stop loss: 44,750
First support zone: 44,300-44,350 (Options based)
Biggest support zone: 44,200 (Yesterday low and breakout level)
Buy zone: 44,300-44,350, stop loss: 44,190

10 lessons from Warren Buffet. You will like this.

Happy 93rd birthday.

CUES FOR TODAY
Dollar and Bond yields in US tumble after consumer sentiment data
US economy cooling, which means Fed will pause in September
IT stocks likely to have a field day today
Dollar Index cools to 103.5, positive for emerging markets
Expiry minus 1 day today, normally it’s a trend day for markets
Maximum Open Interest at 19,400 and 19,500 Calls
Need to see if Call writers will panic today or hold

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about the gap up and sustainability
No trade in Nifty after a big gap up
First resistance for Nifty: 19,430 (Options based)
Bigger resistance for Nifty: 19,452 (20 DMA)
If Nifty sustains above 19,452, then only short covering will pick up
If Nifty rejects 19,452, sell with a stop loss of 19,475
If Nifty manages to sustain 19,452, Buy call options
Stop loss for all intra-day long positions: First hour low
Nifty likely to outperform Bank Nifty today due to IT

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,757 (50 DMA)
Bigger resistance: 44,950 (Last Thursday’s reversal point)
HDFC Bank has shown fresh signs of bottoming out
Need to see if Axis and ICICI Bank have bottomed out as well
No premeditated trade in Bank Nifty today
Will take a call On Bank Nifty after first hour of trade
44,757-44,950 is not the zone to buy, risk of being stuck

Big lesson: You can't buy at resistance. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty reversed exactly from levels mentioned

Today's high: 19,452 🫡

GM

IMPORTANCE OF 19,452
Yesterday, Nifty fell exactly from the 20 DMA of 19,452
Today’s key level to watch is the series low of 19,229
Series has trended lower, possible to test 19,229 today
There is no big positional trade on Nifty or Bank Nifty
Traders should trade intra-day and on boundaries
Better to focus on individual stocks which are trending
At some point, either Nifty will catch up or midcaps will fall

EXPIRY DAY: CUES TO WATCH
Index Series returns
Nifty -1.6%
Midcap +5.2%
Nifty Bank -3.2%
Nifty IT +4.6%

EXPIRY DAY: CUES TO WATCH
Nifty: Highest Open Interest of 1.6 cr at 19,400 Call
19,400 Call premium at Rs 19, resistance at 19,419
19,300 Put has Open Int of 1.3 cr, premium at Rs 25
Put writers see Nifty taking support at 19,275
Nifty’s falling 20 DMA at 19,432 vs 19,452 yesterday
Nifty Bank’s 50 DMA at 44,768 vs 44,757 yesterday
Nifty Bank’s 20 DMA at 44,400

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,419-19,432 (Options based and 20 DMA)
Bigger resistance: 19,452 (Yesterday’s high)
Short every rally with strict stop of 19,452
First support: 19,275 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,229 (Series low)
Buy zone: 19,275-19,325, stop loss: 19,200

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the biggest problem point
First support: 44,200 (last week’s breakout)
Bigger support: 44,036 (100 DMA)
No buy trade in Bank Nifty till stability
First resistance: 44,400-44,540 (20 DMA and options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,768 (50 DMA)
Sell Bank Nifty on failure of rally, stop loss: 44,768

NIFTY IT: WHAT NEXT?
Strongest large Index in market now
Infosys also crossed 200 DMA, filled the gap
IT Index is heading towards 52-week high
If Fed delivers dovish pause, IT will surge