https://youtu.be/hCHvPvzmSCg Link for youtube live

Here’s what happened overnight—and what I’m watching today. 👇

1/10
🛢️ CRUDE IS THE HEADACHE
Brent: ~$90–91
Renewed US-Iran tensions + concerns around supply disruption have pushed oil higher.

2/10

🇺🇸 US YIELDS ARE ALSO MOVING UP

US 10-year yield: ~4.75%

Higher oil + higher bond yields = uncomfortable combination for emerging markets.

3/10

📉 US MARKETS: WEAK, BUT NOT PANIC
Dow: -0.70%
S&P 500: -0.33%
Nasdaq: -0.12%
Notice something important:
Nasdaq is holding up better.

So far, this looks more like a macro/geopolitical risk-off move than a full-blown equity panic.

4/10

🇪🇺 EUROPE LOOKS MORE VULNERABLE

DAX: ~ -1.2%

Why?
Europe is particularly sensitive to an energy shock.
Higher oil can mean:
Inflation ↑
Growth expectations ↓
Rate-cut expectations ↓

That's a nasty combination for European equities.

5/10
🇨🇳 CHINA IS THE OUTLIER
Shanghai: ~ +0.9%

This is worth watching.
Global markets aren't uniformly risk-off.
China's strength suggests there is still some appetite for risk in Asia.

6/10

💵 AND THEN THERE'S THE DOLLAR

Here's the interesting divergence:
US yields are up.

Fed hike expectations are up.
But the Dollar isn't exploding higher.
DXY is around 99.4.
That's a small relief for emerging markets.

7/10

🇮🇳 SO WHAT FOR NIFTY?

I would call the setup:
CAUTIOUS, NOT PANIC.
The overnight cues aren't bad enough by themselves to trigger a major sell-off.

But…
Oil above $90 makes the market vulnerable to bad news.

8/10

🎯 MY 4 THINGS TO WATCH TODAY

1️⃣ Brent — does it sustain above $90?
2️⃣ USD/INR — does the rupee weaken further?
3️⃣ US 10Y — does 4.75% hold?
4️⃣ Geopolitical headlines — especially anything affecting oil supply.

These four will matter more than the overnight Dow number.

9/10

MY BOTTOM LINE:

The global market equation has changed slightly:
🛢️ Oil ↑
🇺🇸 Yields ↑
🏦 Fed expectations ↑
📉 Equities ↓
For India, the biggest risk is oil staying above $90.

10/10

If crude starts cooling off, India can absorb the global weakness.

But if Brent moves decisively towards $95–100, then the conversation changes completely.

Watch the oil price. 🛢️
#Nifty #StockMarket #Markets #CrudeOil #Sensex