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LONG (BUY) 🔼 EUR/GBP
⚠️ Elevated Risk pre ECB rate decision; 3/4 position size
TP ✅ @: 0.86472
⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED / BEING CLOSED ATM ⚠️

Recommended Entry Range ✅0.86300 - 0.86330

► We closed our EUR SHORT position (against the USD) overnight with a nice profit, but have since seen the EUR partially recover. This rebound has also been supported by lower oil prices following yesterday's rally. While the ongoing escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran continues to create uncertainty in the markets, we see only limited room for a renewed full-scale escalation of strikes, as the Trump administration remains well aware of how unpopular this war is in the United States. Trump's approval ratings are sitting at record lows roughly five months ahead of the midterm elections.

► Recent inflation data showed that inflation continues to accelerate in the US, although overall less than feared. In particular, core inflation rose by less than analysts had expected.

► The EUR generally benefits from an ECB that is viewed as considerably more hawkish than all other major central banks. A 25-basis-point rate hike later today is widely expected, and markets are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase later this year. The BoE, meanwhile, is expected to remain more cautious regarding further tightening and will likely leave rates unchanged next week, mindful of the UK's sluggish economic growth and weakening labor market.

► In an already highly turbulent political environment, the UK government has suffered another setback after UK Defence Secretary John Healey announced his resignation. Adding to the pressure is the country's very strained budget situation.

► While the GBP is generally benefiting from improved risk sentiment today, we see the EUR in a stronger position for further gains, particularly as the ECB is acting more decisively to address the renewed acceleration in inflation. Lower energy prices today (with oil trading around 1.3% lower) are also more supportive for the EUR than for the GBP.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061101A

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We found a good entry in EUR/GBP, but preferred to close the position with a small profit after Trump announced that the US will launch further strikes against Iran later today and potentially take control of Iranian oil infrastructure (including Kharg Island).

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❗️The ECB hikes rates by 25bp to 2.25% - the first hike since 2023.

The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasized that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Policymakers reiterated that decisions will be guided by the inflation outlook and the balance of risks surrounding the economy.

The ECB also stressed that it is not pre-committed to any particular path for interest rates, keeping flexibility for future meetings which is an attempt to frame it less hawkish.

The ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking its first rate increase since 2023.

Market reaction is currently muted, as the rate hike was widely anticipated by investors. Attention now shifts to the ECB's forward guidance and any additional signals regarding the future policy outlook (in the press conference).

We are seeing a stronger (negative) reaction in European equities due to the higher interest-rate burden. The EUR has moved modestly higher.


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 28800
(28790 for future)

📌 Nasdaq future (Jun'26) ~10 points lower

► Yet another social media post from Trump, in which he announced that the US will strike Iran again, has now triggered a pullback in risk markets. At the same time, oil prices moved slightly higher and the USD recovered from its earlier losses.

"The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT" - Trump's latest post. "At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets..." – a threat that creates additional potential for further escalation.


► We continue to see the Nasdaq 100 as broadly very positive for today's session, but nevertheless expect renewed selling later in the day. Investors are also likely to pull capital out of some technology stocks that have rallied strongly over recent weeks ahead of the SpaceX IPO.

► While we may initially see some dip-buying during late US pre-market trading, we ultimately expect investors to turn cautious again.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 2.0–2.5x (200%–250%) - 2/3 position size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061102A


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
EUR/GBP
TP ✅ @: 0.86364 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸
OR
CLOSE SOON ✅ @: near/above 0.86349

The EUR would likely have moved higher following the ECB rate hike had Trump not announced new strikes against Iran shortly afterwards, which pushed energy prices higher again. He also stated that the US would take control of Iranian oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, further increasing concerns about additional escalation. The EUR generally faces stronger headwinds from rising oil prices than the GBP.

We are tightening our TP here or simply closing the position with a small profit. We still see upside potential in EUR/GBP, but with oil prices now moving higher again, it is no longer as attractive a trade as it was previously. If you want you can stay LONG for a bit longer.

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🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 GBP/USD
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 3/4 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅1.33530 - 1.133590

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SELL EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔽 Marvell (MRVL) 🇺🇸
⚠️ VERY HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 265.00 🔄
🔄 MRVL saw profit taking in late pre-market trading - we can thus enter a bit lower - MRVL will remain very (!) volatile.


🔹 Nasdaq 100 (+0.85%) – is trading significantly higher following yesterday's sell-off. At one point, the Nasdaq 100 was up as much as 1.4% in pre-market trading. However, further signs that the conflict between the US and Iran remains "hot", as well as likely additional selling in some of the technology stocks that have performed particularly well recently ahead of the SpaceX IPO (as some retail investors are looking to free up capital to invest in SpaceX after its listing), point toward another highly volatile trading session. After some initial dip-buying, we expect recurring waves of selling throughout the day.
👉 TP ✅ @: 28626.60 (28615.90 future Jun'26)

🔹 Alphabet (+0.2%) – opens nearly unchanged. It is unlikely to be a good session for GOOG/L today, although we remain bullish on GOOG/L for June overall. We are tightening our TP slightly further (✅ @: 365.07 | (363.14 GOOG)).

🔹 Apple (+0.3%) – moved close to our TP yesterday and generally benefits from its more defensive characteristics. However, there is a risk of additional profit-taking ahead of the SpaceX IPO. AAPL opens above yesterday's opening price.

🔹 Nvidia (+0.8%) – continues to receive very bullish calls from investment banks and research firms. The price action strongly resembles the period following its previous earnings report at the end of February. Bernstein expects Nvidia to "outperform" and sees substantial upside potential from current levels. We remain LONG in NVDA for now, although today's session is likely to be another bumpy one for NVDA with high volatility.


► We expect a stronger USD and a market that turns cautious again given the long list of uncertainties, particularly concerns that the US-Iran conflict could escalate further after Trump even threatened to take control of Iranian oil infrastructure. I am a bit late with this signal, as GBP/USD has already slipped somewhat (my entry was at 1.33619), but we continue to see significant headwinds ahead for the pair.

► We are selling one of the strongest pre-market performers – once again the chip sector – after it came under considerable pressure yesterday. We see stocks such as MU, AMD, ASML, INTC (up nearly 5%), LRCX, and MRVL (+5.0%) etc. opening strongly as investors once again buy the recent dip in the sector.

► There is a high risk that this recovery attempt will once again run into substantial profit-taking. INTC and MRVL are candidates for selling the rebound. We generally view MRVL as the more volatile stock (although both are highly volatile), as demonstrated by yesterday's sharp swings before ultimately closing 5.35% lower. We are selling MRVL near our TP (268.69 that was triggered yesterday and expect another round of profit-taking after the initial strong gains.

Marvell (MRVL): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. ~70–80x (7,000%–8,000%) – 1/2 position size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061103A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26061104A


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Intel (INTC) 🇺🇸
⚠️ VERY HIGH Volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: 114.11 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸

Recommended Entry ✅ near/above 118.00

► INTC is now up more than 10% after BofA upgraded the stock all the way from "UNDERPERFORM" to "BUY" and raised its price target from $96 to $135.

► BofA argues that Intel is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from the rise of agentic artificial intelligence.

► The entire sector is benefiting from BofA's very positive outlook and, in particular, from its analyst's view regarding growing demand for Central Processing Units (CPUs) for the next generation of AI systems (which was also one of the reasons NVDA entered this market).

► We are now seeing strong gains combined with FOMO buying and are cautiously selling this spike (good that we did not do so right at the NYSE open).

► It will be extremely difficult for INTC to maintain these double-digit gains in the current market environment.

► The sharp gains in the important chip/AI sector have now also pushed the Nasdaq 100 higher after missing our TP. We expect profit-taking to kick in very soon, with resistance for the Nasdaq 100 above 🔽 29000 (a solid opportunity for a re-entry).

Intel (INTC): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 160–180x (16,000%–18,000%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061105A

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——

We made a spectacular trade against the market with INTC. The stock already hit our TP ✅📸 and fell even further.

Also the potential re-entry above 29000 (for the Nasdaq 100) was/would have been perfect.


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 28905
(28900 Jun'26 future)

📌 Nasdaq future (Jun'26) ~5 points lower

► The market remains relatively unfazed by US President Donald Trump posting on Truth Social that the United States will strike Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT." As mentioned earlier, his additional statement that "At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets" offers further room for escalation. We once again see signs of a TACO trade here.

► We made a very good Nasdaq 100 SHORT trade today (closed at TP ✅📸; also INTC 📸), including a potentially perfect re-entry slightly above 29000. We saw the Nasdaq 100 fall below 28600 during the session, but it is now back above 28900, benefiting from gains in the AI and chip sector. This allows us to go SHORT again roughly 300 points above our triggered TP.

► Supporting sentiment, however, were reports that officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iran will meet face-to-face in an effort to de-escalate tensions. This is also an increasing sign that the UAE and other neighboring countries have largely lost patience and confidence in US diplomacy.

► Nevertheless, we expect caution to return toward the end of the session as concerns grow over how severe the next round of strikes from both sides may be.

► Additional headwinds remain from central banks attempting to combat the renewed acceleration in inflation. The ECB has already moved first and raised rates by 25 basis points - the first rate hike since 2023.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 2.0–2.5x (200%–250%) - 2/3 position size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061106A


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 28868.60 (28863.60 future)

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
TP ✅ @: 62506.60

GBP/USD
TP ✅ @: 1.33521

Marvell (MRVL) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 263.16


Trump announced on Truth Social that he has cancelled the strikes and bombings against Iran that had been planned for this evening. While this all appears spontaneous, it is more likely that Trump intended exactly these kinds of statements (+ insider trading). Nevertheless, we are now seeing a clear improvement in risk sentiment.

We are seeing a strong market reaction, although it is likely to cool again before the end of the session. For now, however, we need to adjust our positions accordingly.

For our risk-off positions - including our recently opened BTC trade - this represents a headwind. Silver is now trading close to our tightened TP.

We still expect generally more cautious trading and additional selling waves later in the session, particularly toward the close. The Nasdaq 100 is likely to face resistance in the 🔽 29250 - 29400 range. GBP/USD is likely to encounter resistance above 🔽 1.34000. Silver could at least temporarily push into the 66.50 - 67.00 range (thereby triggering our TP), while gold may rise into the 🔽 $4150 - $4200 range but is likely to encounter resistance there. AAPL has already triggered our tightened TP ✅.

Trump also wrote: "...discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others" - a statement that Iran (which is not mentioned) as well as some of the countries listed will likely at least partially deny in the near future.

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LONG (BUY) 🔼 USD/JPY
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/below 159.710

► We continue to see oil prices moving lower toward the end of the session, providing additional support for risk assets. Oil prices remain for now the single most important driver of current market sentiment.

► Risk sentiment initially deteriorated toward the end of regular US trading. However, US President Donald Trump stated that he had cancelled an upcoming round of US military strikes against Iran and that talks with the Islamic Republic had been "approved" (whatever exactly that is supposed to mean). This once again triggered gains across markets and was followed by strong dip-buying.

► Trump further added that a settlement of the war with Iran is close - "just made a great settlement of the war with Iran." He also told reporters in the Oval Office that he expects a signing to take place "within the next few days."

► However, Iranian state media outlet Fars reported shortly after Trump's announcement that Tehran had not approved any draft agreement for what could become an initial memorandum of understanding with the United States.

► Sharply lower oil prices have created additional headwinds for the USD. The USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in more than a week. We are cautiously buying this dip and expect further signals from Tehran indicating that Trump has once again announced something that Iran has not actually agreed to.

► The JPY will remain weak over the coming days and weeks, also as consumer prices in the US continue to rise considerably faster than inflation in Japan. Adding to this is the large yield gap between US and Japanese government bonds (even though US Treasury yields have now pulled back significantly for the time being; 10y - down 8.5 bps).

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061108A

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅29490 - 29550 🔄

📌 Nasdaq future (Jun'26) ~5 points lower

► A trading day that has been outstanding for us so far has unfortunately now receive a hit, as Trump is once again driving market sentiment through his social media posts. Just as the market has discounted his threats through the TACO trade, it will likely not take his latest post too seriously either. In reality, however, investors know that Trump is under pressure to find an exit from the war and increase global oil supply again in order to cool the renewed acceleration in inflation.

► We now see the Nasdaq 100 trading at session highs, and saw further gains with oil prices sliding lower.

► We can therefore re-enter here (if you have not already done so).

► We expect oil prices to find floor and rebounding a bit from their session lows. GBP/USD is facing more resistance above 1.34000.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 2.0-2.5x (200%-250%) - 2/3 position size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061106B


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——

The Nasdaq 📈 rose further with oil prices sliding. We expect Iran to further deny being close to a deal.

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 April 29 - June 11
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: April 29 - June 04
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 116 (+2 open p. - GOOGL & NVDIA)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 107
🔹 Overall REAL Signal Accuracy / Success Rate = 92.2% 🏆

Dropped from statistics: 4/4 - 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy (April 28)
Added to statistics: 5/5 - 100% 💎 Signal Accuracy (June 04)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: June 05 - June 11 🔹

✅ 5.6 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.34361)
✅ 5.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 29678.70 |overall in-profit)
✅ 5.6 - EUR/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 1.15677 | overall in-profit)
✅ 5.6 - PLTR - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 139.16)
❌ 5.6 - XAG/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 66.583) 🔄

4/5 = 80% Signal Accuracy

✅ 8.6 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 89.561 me | or 91.38)
✅ 8.6 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 88.836)
✅ 8.6 - MRVL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 302.43 me | or 297.79)
✅ 8.6 - US30 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 51087.90)
✅ 8.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 29657.90 me |or 29651.20)
❌ 8.6 - AAPL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 295.37 | +re-entry in profit) 🔄

5/6 = 83.3% Signal Accuracy


——————————————


Our 🔼 success rate has changed little (improving slightly). Another perfect 5/5 💎 session (SA/SR = 100%) from last Thursday replaced one of the many flawless sessions from recent weeks (4/4; 💎 SA/SR = 100%).

We still have two open positions in our five-week statistics - with NVDA closing strongly today (+2.2%) and GOOGL ultimately also finishing the session in positive territory (+0.4%) - "thanks" to renewed hopes that the US and Iran will return to negotiations rather than exchange further strikes. Adding to this was Trump once again promising that a deal is imminent.

We had two off-profit TP ✅ triggers with our silver and AAPL positions. While both positions could have been closed at higher levels later this month, we are overall satisfied that we reduced our exposure in what remains a highly volatile market.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

❌ 9.6 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 29254.90 me or similar | partial close TP - 28924.90 or similar/higher | overall off-profit)
✅ 9.6 - CVX - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 187.36)
❌ 9.6 - MRVL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 268.69 | overall - off-profit)
🟡❌ 9.6 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (clsd near 1.15455)

1/4 = 25% Signal Accuracy

🟡 10.6 - AUS_200 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 8636.10)
✅ 10.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (clsd at 4179.13 me)
✅ 10.6 - PEP - LONG ↗️ (TP - 144.48)
❌ 10.6 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 4107.73| +re-entry) 🔄📸
✅ 10.6 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.15283) 🔄📸

3/4 = 75% Signal Accuracy


🔹TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✅ 11.6 - EUR/GBP - LONG ↗️ (TP - 0.86364) 📸
✅ 11.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 28626.60) 📸
✴️ 11.6 - GBP/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit |+pot. re-entry)
👉 TP Signal Accuracy @: 1.33707 🔄
✴️ 11.6 - MRVL - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 263.16
✅ 11.6 - INTC - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 114.11) 📸
✴️ 11.6 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit | +re-entry)
👉 TP ✅ @: 29052.60 (29047.60 future) 🔄
✴️ 11.6 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 62506.60
✅ 11.6 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 160.04) 📸

4/8 - (4 open positions)


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We closed a large number of positions today - not all of them in profit, but we were able to significantly reduce our overall exposure.

It would have been a spectacular trading session if it had not been for the seemingly abrupt shifts in messaging from the Trump administration, which once again had such a sudden impact on market sentiment and, in particular, oil prices. We have seen a similar pattern several times before and are likely to see it again: Trump announces major progress, while Iran subsequently does not confirm that narrative.

The GBP/USD position should have been secured much earlier. Our positions from today that did not hit their TP (and are now even overall off-profit) would very likely have reached their TPs before the NYSE close - including MRVL, GBP/USD, our second Nasdaq 100 SHORT, and probably even our short-term BTC SHORT - if it had not been for yet another round of Trump tweets.

Our USD/JPY 📸 hit TP. For some of our other positions, we are now working with tighter TPs ✅ - for example on GBP/USD (a re-entry in the 🔽 1.34150 - 1.34350 range is possible) as well as on our still-open Nasdaq 100 position.

We expect a solid start to Friday's session, but then anticipate rising volatility again and cautious positioning ahead of the weekend - unless Trump manages to convince investors that the peace talks have made meaningful progress. Another obstacle to peace in the region remains Israel's continued advance into Lebanon.

In this market environment, it is important to secure profits earlier (of course, feel always free to secure profits on your own whenever you wish) - however, please do not overuse SLs, and especially avoid very tight SLs (as these will almost always get triggered).

🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹


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LONG EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔼 ExxonMobil (XOM) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: 148.83 ⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED DEEP IN PROFIT ⚠️

Recommended Entry Range ✅145.00 - 145.60


We see very mixed market sentiment, as investors are searching for direction amid changing headlines surrounding the Iran conflict, ongoing concerns about accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy, continued enthusiasm for AI/chip stocks with increasingly stretched valuations, as well as the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO debut. SPCX will be first quoted 20 minutes after the NYSE open (09:50 ET) and begin trading at 10:00 am ET.


🔹 Nasdaq 100 (-0.10%) - the Nasdaq 100 has slipped slightly into negative territory, or close to flat, after initially posting additional gains. Early optimism was supported by hopes of progress and even a potential agreement in the coming days (possibly as early as Sunday). However, investors are likely to become more skeptical again, as similar signals in the past have often resulted in a standstill and ultimately further strikes from both sides.
👉 TP ✅ @: 29195.60 (29191.20 Future Jun'26)

🔹 Alphabet (+1.3%) - is rebounding after recent weakness and is currently the top performer among the "Magnificent Seven." While Alphabet remains highly attractive for 2026 and beyond, hyperscalers are likely to remain trapped in sideways trading for a while longer. Alphabet is also benefiting from expectations of a strong first trading day for SpaceX and therefore has significant rebound potential today. Alphabet invested $900 million in SpaceX more than a decade ago, increased its stake over time, and now owns approximately 4.9% of the company.
👉 TP ✅ @: 366.94 | (365.54 GOOG)

🔹 Nvidia (-0.3%) - opens little changed following a strong previous session. Investment banks and research firms remain extremely bullish on the AI chip leader. Oppenheimer reiterated its "Outperform" rating and additionally stated that it remains committed to the stock, arguing that NVDA is best positioned in AI and continues to lead the industry in both AI hardware and software solutions.

🔹 Marvell (-2.9%) - opens significantly lower after the chipmaker was among yesterday's strongest performers and a major beneficiary of the improved risk sentiment following Trump's announcement that he had cancelled additional strikes. We are likely to see a deeper correction today. Rebound attempts can be sold (especially near/above 280), although we continue to work with a tighter (but still relatively wide) TP.
👉 TP ✅ @: 264.63


► We are likely to see high volatility and sharp swings during the early NYSE session, with the SpaceX debut adding further volatility. We need to closely monitor how Wall Street trades.

► We can buy the sharp dip in the energy sector, with XOM extending yesterday's losses (-2.7%) and opening near 145.50 (-0.75%), close to its June lows. We generally expect investors to become increasingly skeptical about the prospects of a peace agreement later today and for oil prices - while remaining at lower levels overall - to find a bottom.

ExxonMobil (XOM): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 110–130x (11,000%–13,000%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061202A


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: near/above 24540.00

I prefer to close the DAX here for a small loss. Strong demand for SpaceX has created more optimism in New York than many expected. Analysts had anticipated stronger rotational movements.

However, while SPCX is set for a strong market debut, it remains massively overvalued relative to its current revenue base. The high starting valuation could quickly cause analysts and investors to become much more skeptical regarding further upside potential. It is more likely that SPCX will face significant profit-taking next week.

The Nasdaq has benefited from this for now, recovering from its pre-market lows and moving higher again.

On the negative side, however, we are already seeing signs that the US and Iran remain far apart. Trump posted on Truth Social: “The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing (...) They better get their act together (...) Iran’s drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”

We expect profit-taking later today, while oil prices are likely to move higher again toward the end of the session.

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We entered the DAX LONG around/below 24600 and closed the position here with a small loss.

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 EUR/USD
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 3/4 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅1.15740 - 1.15800 🔄

► Skepticism that the US and Iran can actually reach an agreement, given that both sides remain apparently far apart on the key conditions for a deal, is likely to result in the USD edging higher again and investors generally positioning more cautiously.

► We are already SHORT GBP/USD, but also see EUR/USD at an attractive level for a SHORT position.

► We are already seeing oil prices rebound from their session lows which also helped our XOM to push into TP ✅📸.

► In addition, after the initial euphoria surrounding SpaceX (which also helped other space-related stocks and associated technology companies), we are likely to see a reality check set in.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061103A


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 4221 🔄

► We have to be careful not to overtrade this chaotic market, but at the same time we see significant room for gold to give back part of its strong gains from yesterday. We expected resistance in the area approaching 4200 and have largely seen exactly that - even though gold briefly overshot higher due to FOMO buying (as well as sharply lower oil prices).

► We expect investors to become increasingly skeptical about the prospects for a peace agreement. Gold is no longer a traditional safe-haven asset and is likely to face headwinds not only from growing skepticism regarding a peace deal, but also from rebounding oil prices, a stabilizing USD that is likely to edge higher later today, and ongoing concerns about accelerating inflation and interest rates remaining higher for longer.

► The ECB already raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday - the first rate hike since 2023 - in an effort to combat the recent surge in consumer prices caused by higher energy costs.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.10–0.12x (10%–12%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26061204A

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Gold moved back near its session highs as the market continues to hope for a diplomatic breakthrough that could bring an end to the war with Iran. Hopes for another (fragile) ceasefire, which could potentially be signed as early as Sunday, have helped keep oil prices at lower levels today and allowed risk assets to continue attracting buyers. The successful SpaceX IPO has also eased concerns about a sudden risk-off move in the market.

Nevertheless, we still see some cooling potential from here toward the end of the session 📈📈❌📉