📊 A High-Stakes Week for Markets

The Fed, Big Tech earnings, U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan will all set the tone in the same week. With AI spending concerns growing and inflation rising again, the market reaction could be unusually broad.

🖱️ Fed: Rates are expected to stay at 3.75%-4.00%. A hawkish signal from Kevin Warsh or expectations of a December hike could pressure stocks.

🖱️ Big Tech: Alphabet and Microsoft, worth roughly $8 trillion combined, are expected to report about $128 billion and $90.6 billion in revenue. AI spending, cloud growth and monetization are key.

🖱️ AI trade: Amazon, Intel and Sandisk will offer more evidence on AWS growth, chips and memory demand.

🖱️ U.S. data: Headline PCE is expected at 3.6%, core PCE at 3.1% annually, and Q3 GDP growth at 3.2%. Hot inflation could revive rate-hike fears.

🖱️ Japan: The BOJ is expected to hold its 1.25% rate, but a surprise could strengthen the yen and pressure markets through the carry trade.

With the U.S. midterm elections also days away, strong earnings and cooler inflation could support stocks. Hot inflation, a more hawkish Fed and weak AI results would point the other way.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Rise

Nearly 470,000 bankruptcy cases were filed in the U.S. in the first 9 months of 2026, up 11% from last year. Small business bankruptcies surged 46%.

Rising living costs, expensive loans, and mounting credit card debt are increasing pressure on households and small businesses. With inflation rising again, conditions could worsen.

✔️ @venture

🇮🇱 Israel’s Election and Caretaker Rule

Netanyahu can remain prime minister after the 27 October election without winning a new term or postponing the vote. Israel’s Basic Law keeps the outgoing government in place until a new one is formed.

Postponement is separate. It requires a law backed by 80 lawmakers and special circumstances that prevent voting on time. War does not automatically move the date.

On 25 October, Polymarket priced Gadi Eisenkot at 51% and Netanyahu at 29%. The contract covers the next prime minister formally appointed and sworn in, not caretaker service. Polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, or 62 in Channel 14. A majority is 61.

Eisenkot’s party leads in the first 3 surveys, but the largest party has no automatic right to form a government. The decisive test is a confidence vote, which can pass with abstentions and fewer than 61 votes in favor.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Files for an IPO

Anthropic filed an S-1 with the SEC. Revenue reached 16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, versus 1.2 billion a year earlier.

The reported loss was 80.7 billion, but 72 billion came from revaluing debt instruments that will convert into shares. Actual spending was about 17 billion, including 9 billion on computing and infrastructure. Operating loss was 0.7 billion.

Anthropic says computing costs are growing slower than revenue and claims Q3 already shows a paper profit. It has 132 billion on hand, but computing commitments run into hundreds of billions through 2045. Seven founders will retain 50.1% of voting power, so buyers get an economic stake without control.

✔️ @venture

🖥 Microsoft Offers 60,000 Buyouts

The voluntary offer covers about 60,000 employees, or 27% of Microsoft’s full-time workforce. Microsoft had 223,000 full-time employees as of June 30.

Eligible staff at level 70 and below in the US, Canada, India and the UK can receive up to 39 weeks of base pay. Some sales, engineering and corporate teams are excluded, with departures at the end of the year.

An earlier retirement program reached about 9,000 people, with roughly a third accepting. The move links workforce reductions to continued AI and data center spending.

✔️ @venture

🎟️ TodayTix’s Pandemic Bet Paid Off

Great Hill Partners acquired a majority stake in TodayTix for $73 million in May 2019. By the end of 2019, the theater-ticketing startup had reached $100 million in annual revenue. Its trajectory later led to a sale to Ari Emanuel in 2025.

The timing became difficult almost immediately. TodayTix acquired U.K. competitor Encore Tickets in February 2020, then live events stopped and customers demanded refunds. Great Hill and outside advisers arranged additional debt and equity financing to keep the company solvent for the next 18 months.

The bet depended on the long-term potential of live events, technology, and marketplaces. Founder Brian Fenty says Great Hill was willing to keep investing despite the company losing money, backing a founder-led strategy through the industry’s sharpest contraction.

✔️ @venture

❕Copper One ($CEXY): An Asymmetric Bet on the Horizon?

Copper demand continues to grow, driven by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and expanding power infrastructure. The International Energy Agency projects a potential 25% copper supply shortfall by 2035, putting renewed attention on North American exploration companies.
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Copper One Resources has several developments worth watching:

➡️ Majuba Hill, Nevada: More than 90,000 feet of drilling completed, with a new program of up to 10,000 feet underway. Results from the previous drilling phase are still pending.

➡️ Redonda, British Columbia: The company recently identified visible copper mineralization approximately 600 metres beyond its main zone. Laboratory results are needed to confirm the findings.

➡️ Political developments: British Columbia's Conservatives have won their first majority since 1928, raising expectations of faster mining approvals and additional exploration incentives.

➡️Recent financing: Copper One raised approximately C$8 million at C$0.40 per share, providing additional funding for exploration. The stock is trading near that financing level.
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What comes next?

Upcoming drilling results will be important in determining whether Copper One's exploration targets can support a larger resource.

The broader copper supply outlook remains favorable, but Copper One is still an early-stage explorer. Its valuation depends heavily on drilling success, future financing, and the eventual economic viability of its projects.

With shares near recent lows, fresh capital secured, and several potential catalysts ahead, CEXY could be shaping up as an asymmetric bet. The upside depends on exploration results, while the risks remain significant.

CSE: CEXY | OTC: CEXYF | Frankfurt: IW8

📈 AI Financing Reaches Record Scale

“I've never seen anything like it in terms of the size of the financing that's coming in both debt markets, equity markets. The cost of debt has actually equilibrated in many ways to the cost of equity for some of these companies. I've heard people compare this to the internet bubble. These companies are throwing off real revenue, real cash flow.”

Rick Rieder, BlackRock.

AI borrowing has pushed U.S. high-grade bond sales to an annual record. Meta, SpaceX, and Broadcom have all raised debt in the past few days. When debt costs as much as equity, the biggest borrowers start selling stock.

✔️ @venture

💡 Fed Chair Warsh remains hawkish and focused on bringing price stability

🖱️ Fed keeps interest rates steady at 3.75-4%.

🖱️ Inflation remains elevated above the 2% target for over 6 years.

🖱️ Geopolitical uncertainty is the primary reason for rising inflation.

🖱️ Economic activity is expanding and the labour market remains strong.

🖱️ In 2027, the FOMC schedule will change, with the same 8 Fed meetings annually, but one meeting will focus only on monetary policy strategy without any rate decision.

🖱️ In 2028, the Fed will have two such monetary policy strategy meetings and six on rate decisions.

🖱️ Warsh says it is important to keep ‘time and space’ for such ‘strategic deliberations’ to focus on the ‘long-term horizon.’

🖱️ On December rate hikes, Warsh says the coming period is ‘information rich’ and future hikes will depend on it.

🖱️ Warsh says he is ‘unwilling and unable’ to call financial conditions tight.

🖱️ Warsh believes higher interest rates do affect AI spending, irrespective of revenues.

🖱️ Warsh clarified that ‘politics’ or ‘midterm elections’ had no role in today’s decision about Fed rates.

🖱️ Any decision on shrinking the Fed balance sheet will only come early in Q1 2027, after recommendations from a task force.

🖱️ Overall, he doesn’t see current economic growth causing inflation but is closely watching the numbers for the future.

✔️ @venture

🖥 Microsoft Beats Q1 Estimates

Microsoft's Q1 results beat estimates across revenue, EPS, Azure revenue, and operating income. The main misses were commercial RPO and CapEx.

🖱️ Revenue: $92.2B vs $90.7B estimate.

🖱️ EPS: $4.89 vs $4.72 estimate.

🖱️ Azure revenue: $33.2B vs $32.3B estimate.

🖱️ Operating income: $45.9B vs $43.9B estimate.

🖱️ Commercial RPO: $677B vs $706B estimate.

🖱️ CapEx: $39.4B vs $45.9B estimate.

✔️ @venture

🪙 $6.3 Billion Drained From Binance

Binance's preliminary estimate is $6.3 billion, about 4 times the previous record set by Bybit. More than 18,000 BTC and about $3.8 billion in Ethereum moved across 10 blockchains, mostly within 20 minutes.

The attack began with a compromised DevOps laptop. Initial findings point to access to a service container and the hot-wallet transaction signing infrastructure, enabling unauthorized withdrawals. Binance found no leaked private keys.

Stablecoin issuers froze about $3 billion. Around $2.4 billion in BTC and ETH remains out of reach. Binance halted withdrawals and says SAFU, which holds about $1 billion, plus its own funds will cover the losses.

✔️ @venture

🥇 Gold Loses Its Safe-Haven Bid

Spot gold fell about 3% to roughly $3,910 an ounce, its lowest since October 2025. Futures are down about 26% from January's record close of $5,318.

The selloff came as the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 2% and $INTC had its worst day since 1974. Traders are pricing in more Fed hikes after a hot 0.5% September PCE print.

When even $GLD is sold during a tech rout, investors are raising cash wherever they can. Rates are the market's main fear.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Reddit’s Biggest Drawdown

$RDDT is in its biggest drawdown ever as Google AI Mode eats into Reddit’s search traffic.

CEO Steve Huffman says, “Google is crawling us as hard as ever.” Google still gets Reddit’s content, while Reddit receives fewer clicks in return.

✔️ @venture

👤 Black October’s cyber toll

October 2026 brought more than 100 million exposed records, hospital and government outages, critical software flaws, and major crypto thefts. Researchers called it “Black October”.

Most attacks used trusted access, including vendor accounts, cloud logins, certificates, and legacy systems. Breaches hit SourceNext, Burger King Japan, and Capcom.

An IDCF Cloud ransomware attack disrupted services for 495 companies and local governments. PHP flaws affected software used on about 70% of web servers, while LiteLLM exposed passwords and cloud keys.

AI agents used real logins, prompting JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Charles Schwab to block outside agents. Crypto losses included $93 million from CryptoBilis, nearly $16 million from CoinDCX, and $6.3 billion from Binance.

✔️ @venture

📉 Five Days of Market Risk

U.S. midterms, jobs data, central-bank decisions and major AI earnings land within 5 days, as tech stocks are already falling.

🖱️ Mon, Nov 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Apple and Palantir.

🖱️ Tue, Nov 3: elections, Australia’s rate decision, JOLTS, AMD and Shopify.

🖱️ Wed, Nov 4: ADP, ISM Services, eurozone inflation, Qualcomm and Arm.

🖱️ Thu, Nov 5: Bank of England decision, U.S. claims, Cloudflare and Airbnb.

🖱️ Fri, Nov 6: U.S. jobs report, with 60K expected after 29K in September and unemployment at 4.2%.

Markets price an 80% chance of another Fed rate hike in December.

✔️ @venture

🏘 Housing Market Turns Spookier

America has more home sellers than buyers, the biggest gap in over 10 years.

🖱️ Prices fell for the first time in 3 years.

🖱️ Only 276,000 home deals are in progress, a record low.

🖱️ Every major city has seen fewer sales for 3 straight weeks.

🖱️ The average house payment reached the second-highest level ever.

Michael Burry's advice: "Buy half the house you can afford"

✔️ @venture

💰 Ueno Bank Faces Emergency Control

Ueno Bank, a major Paraguayan bank, has failed, leaving nearly 60% of adults unable to access their accounts.

The bank has around 3 million customers and $2.8 billion in deposits, including hundreds of millions in public funds.

The central bank has taken emergency control, freezing withdrawals, transfers, and card payments.

✔️ @venture

📈 Midterms Meet a Costly Market

The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%.

JPMorgan’s election map:

🖱️ Democratic sweep, 66% odds, -0.25% to +0.5%.

🖱️ Democratic House, GOP Senate, 26% odds, +0.5% to +1%.

🖱️ Republican sweep, 7% odds, +1% to +1.25%.

A blue wave could pressure AI stocks through data center regulation fears. A red wave could extend the Iran campaign and deficit spending.

The catch is valuation. The Shiller CAPE is 40.7, above the old record of 33.8. History favors bulls, but no streak began from a market this expensive. AI earnings may matter more than tonight’s result.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ 5% 10-Year Rate Warning

“Once the 10-year nominal rates approach 5%, there's a very clear negative correlation between equities and the treasury yields”

Venu Krishna, Barclays.

“In fact, when we approached 4.5% on the 10, we had highlighted a red flag.” With rates stuck in this range, multiples stop helping and earnings must do the heavy lifting for SPY, QQQ, and the AI complex. The rally still has a rates ceiling.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Trump on Iran War Costs

“I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term. I thought the oil would go up a lot more, and I did it on that basis. If I were on the ballot, we would have won.”

Donald Trump

He said Vance was largely right that the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms, but he would do it again. He spoke at the White House the day after Democrats flipped the House and Senate, with US crude back below $90 for the first time since early October.

✔️ @venture