🏘 Housing Market Turns Spookier

America has more home sellers than buyers, the biggest gap in over 10 years.

🖱️ Prices fell for the first time in 3 years.

🖱️ Only 276,000 home deals are in progress, a record low.

🖱️ Every major city has seen fewer sales for 3 straight weeks.

🖱️ The average house payment reached the second-highest level ever.

Michael Burry's advice: "Buy half the house you can afford"

✔️ @venture

💰 Ueno Bank Faces Emergency Control

Ueno Bank, a major Paraguayan bank, has failed, leaving nearly 60% of adults unable to access their accounts.

The bank has around 3 million customers and $2.8 billion in deposits, including hundreds of millions in public funds.

The central bank has taken emergency control, freezing withdrawals, transfers, and card payments.

✔️ @venture

📈 Midterms Meet a Costly Market

The S&P 500 has finished higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, 19 for 19, with an average gain of about 15%.

JPMorgan’s election map:

🖱️ Democratic sweep, 66% odds, -0.25% to +0.5%.

🖱️ Democratic House, GOP Senate, 26% odds, +0.5% to +1%.

🖱️ Republican sweep, 7% odds, +1% to +1.25%.

A blue wave could pressure AI stocks through data center regulation fears. A red wave could extend the Iran campaign and deficit spending.

The catch is valuation. The Shiller CAPE is 40.7, above the old record of 33.8. History favors bulls, but no streak began from a market this expensive. AI earnings may matter more than tonight’s result.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ 5% 10-Year Rate Warning

“Once the 10-year nominal rates approach 5%, there's a very clear negative correlation between equities and the treasury yields”

Venu Krishna, Barclays.

“In fact, when we approached 4.5% on the 10, we had highlighted a red flag.” With rates stuck in this range, multiples stop helping and earnings must do the heavy lifting for SPY, QQQ, and the AI complex. The rally still has a rates ceiling.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Trump on Iran War Costs

“I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term. I thought the oil would go up a lot more, and I did it on that basis. If I were on the ballot, we would have won.”

Donald Trump

He said Vance was largely right that the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms, but he would do it again. He spoke at the White House the day after Democrats flipped the House and Senate, with US crude back below $90 for the first time since early October.

✔️ @venture

💻 $INTC: Same Price, Different Business

🖱️ 8 years ago: $55/share, primarily an x86 CPU & PC business, with no external foundry business, outside backing, or meaningful AI growth engine.

🖱️ Today: $55/share, a centerpiece of America's push for domestic advanced chipmaking, backed by the U.S. government and $NVDA, with Data Center & AI revenue posting its strongest growth in 15 years.

Same price. Very different business.

✔️ @venture

“When you buy a stock, be prepared for it to go down 50% or more.”

- Warren Buffett

✔️ @venture

🖥 Nvidia Board Opens Investigation

Nvidia announced an independent board investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.

The board said it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised and reaffirmed confidence in Huang as he cooperates with the investigation.

✔️ @venture

📉 Stocks and the Economy Are Diverging

The US stock market is under heavy pressure, but the economic outlook remains more resilient. Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.4% real GDP growth in 2027, slightly above the 2.3% expected this year. Markets are pricing only a 20% probability of a US recession next year.

With real growth near 2% to 2.5% and one-year inflation expectations at 2.1%, nominal GDP growth could remain below 4.5% in 2027. If inflation continues to cool, slower nominal growth could reduce upward pressure on Treasury yields and support equities.

The outlook is not risk-free. Weaker growth, a softer labor market, or another inflation shock could change it quickly. A stock market selloff and an economic recession are different things.

✔️ @venture

📈 The S&P 500 Is Mostly a Tech Bet

The market has reached 28 record highs this year, but 9 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are lagging. Technology represents nearly 40% of the index and delivered roughly 12 of the S&P 500’s 13.6-point return, according to Silvia Insights.

Energy is also outperforming, but its roughly 3% index weight means the effect is limited. Excluding technology and energy, the median sector is up barely 1% year-to-date, while 4 of the 9 sectors are negative. Buying the broad market is therefore largely a bet on a small group of technology leaders.

That concentration carries risk if mega-cap technology weakens, but the sector is cheaper than it has been in years. Tatiana Darie, a Bloomberg macro strategist, said on Full Signal that the spread between the S&P 500 and information technology sector’s forward P/E ratios has returned to levels last seen at the start of the pandemic. Nvidia’s market capitalization was then $144 billion. It is now nearing $6 trillion. The broad market is not necessarily a bad trade, but it is mostly one trade.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸 Affordability Is the Main Economic Risk

The US entered the Trump presidency with a booming stock market, relatively lower inflation, and an AI-driven technological revolution. Now, markets are again discussing whether the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates.

Trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the war with Iran have added pressure to energy prices and inflation. The main issue is affordability, with housing, groceries, insurance, and other essentials already out of reach for many Americans. Higher rates would make buying a first home even harder.

There is still time to change course by ending conflicts, stabilizing trade policy, and lowering housing and energy costs. The US has significant economic potential, but the focus needs to shift toward making life more affordable.

✔️ @venture