Leopold Aschenbrenner opened 4 option positions two weeks ago. He paid $96M, and all 4 expired in the money.

🖱️ Micron (MU), strike $1,000.

🖱️ SanDisk (SNDK), strike $1,600.

🖱️ Intel (INTC), strike $115.

🖱️ Marvell (MRVL), strike $250.

The positions returned 47%, generating about $45.6M in 2 weeks.

✔️ @venture

The S&P 500 just hit its 28th record high of 2026, crossing $71 trillion in market cap for the first time.

🖱️ 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs.

🖱️ Inflation is 3.4%, above expectations, while mortgage rates are 7.28%, the highest since 2023.

🖱️ The Fed is hiking rates for the first time since 2023. Unemployment has risen to 4.2%, a 3-month high.

🖱️ Gasoline is $4.36 a gallon, up 39% in a year. Diesel is above $6.3.

🖱️ Crude is near $88-$95 a barrel. Consumer sentiment is 48.1, the second-lowest in 74 years.

✔️ @venture

Diversification is dying.

For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, its 10 largest stocks get about 41 cents: Nvidia ($NVDA) 8 cents, Apple ($AAPL) 7 cents, Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) 6 cents each, and Amazon ($AMZN) 4 cents.

Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron and AMD add 10 cents. The top 10 stocks represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies, which account for 23 cents. Big Tech effectively is the market

✔️ @venture

US high-yield credit market stress is rising sharply, with spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds up to 12.0%, their widest level since November 2022.

Over the last 5 months, spreads surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%.

The increase is comparable to moves during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 correction. If this pace continues, spreads will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% this month.

The 2020 pandemic high was 19.6%. Credit stress is rising beneath the surface.

✔️ @venture

Nike shares are down over 80% from their peak.

If they reclaim that high, investors buying here would make over 5x their money.

The latest quarter shows whether a turnaround is in sight.

✔️ @venture

The White House and the Fed are taking opposite positions on interest rates.

The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, with every voting member backing the move.

🖱️ Fed: Most officials expect another hike by year-end. PCE inflation was 3.8% in August.

🖱️ Trump: “We should have the lowest interest rate in the world.”

🖱️ Trump: “You have a board that would like to see the country do badly.”

✔️ @venture

US banks seized 42% more homes in August than last year as more borrowers failed to repay loans.

30-year mortgage rates reached 7.60%, the highest since Nov 2023.

Home ownership is no longer affordable for the average US citizen.

✔️ @venture

Goldman Sachs’s RSE-basket infographic shows tariffs aggressively drive key-goods prices but are not the main contributor, with AI demand and energy the biggest inflation shocks.

✔️ @venture

Michael Burry says every bull-market top follows the same grieving cycle, with denial lasting 6 to 9 months or longer. He argues stimulus checks and broader monetary and fiscal support have delayed crashes for two decades.

🖱️ Denial. The market top forms here and can last 6 to 9 months or longer.

🖱️ Anger. Violent, steep drops follow early in a bear market.

🖱️ Bargaining. Value investors test fallen names, hoping for a bottom.

🖱️ Depression and acceptance. They close out the cycle.

Burry says monetary and fiscal stimulus has interrupted this grieving process for two decades straight.

✔️ @venture

📈 AI Big 10 Reach Record Share

The “AI Big 10” now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap, including the Magnificent 7, Broadcom $AVGO, AMD $AMD, and Micron $MU.

This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low. The 2000 Dot-Com Bubble saw the Technology, Media & Telecom sector peak at 41%, while the Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% in the 1970s.

Japan’s equity bubble peaked at 44% in the 1980s. Only railroad stocks have significantly exceeded this concentration, reaching 63% of US market cap at their peak in the 1900s.

✔️ @venture

The S&P 500 Telecommunication Services index fell 8.5% yesterday.

T-Mobile fell 12%, while Verizon and AT&T each fell 11%.

SpaceX bought a nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio and plans to launch Starlink Mobile, targeting existing carrier customers. Low-band signals reach inside buildings, addressing a key gap in satellite service.

Carriers rely heavily on monthly phone plans, putting subscribers and pricing at risk.

The telecom index is down 16% over the last 30 days.

✔️ @venture

💰 AI Infrastructure Debt Is Getting Tighter

JPMorgan expects $5.5T of AI spending through 2030, including $4.1T funded with debt. Morgan Stanley estimates private credit will fund over half of the $1.5T needed for data centers through 2028.

Private credit investors can usually withdraw only 5% of their shares per quarter. In early 2026, Blue Owl, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, while the 30-year is near 5.5%.

AI revenue is still small relative to the buildout. Microsoft's AI revenue run rate is $37B and AWS's is $15B, versus about $650B of hyperscaler spending in 2026. The money is not gone, but cheap debt is. If AI revenue does not cover higher interest costs, lenders will fund fewer projects.

✔️ @venture

🚀 The Full Space Value Chain

Heading into 2028, space spans launch, manufacturing, spectrum and services.

🖱️ $RKLB: rockets, satellite manufacturing, defense, Iridium global spectrum, 2.55M+ existing subs.

🖱️ $SPCX: launch, satellite manufacturing, Starlink, vertically integrated network.

🖱️ $ASTS: direct-to-smartphone satellite links via large arrays and carrier spectrum.

🖱️ $PL: Earth observation satellites, imagery, data and analytics.

🖱️ $FLY: launch vehicles, lunar landers and defense systems.

🖱️ $YORK: satellites for Pentagon constellations and defense programs.

🖱️ $RDW: spacecraft components, sensors and mission hardware.

🖱️ $BKSY: imaging satellites, real-time geospatial intelligence.

✔️ @venture

🏦 Treasury’s Debt Gamble Moves Short

10-year Treasury yields have reached 5.23%, while 30-year yields moved above 5.6%, levels not seen in more than two decades. That comes despite Scott Bessent increasing long-term bond buybacks to as much as $6 billion.

Citi expects the Treasury to announce $3 billion cuts to both 20-year and 30-year bond auctions on November 4, with the 20-year bond potentially canceled. The government would borrow more through short-term Treasury bills to reduce long-term bond supply and ease yields.

The trade-off is faster refinancing. If rates remain elevated, interest costs could rise further as US national debt approaches $40 trillion. The Treasury may reduce pressure on long-term yields, but it cannot remove the debt problem.

✔️ @venture