📉 September Selling Imbalance

Algorithmic trading funds have about $9 billion left to buy if stocks rise, but could be forced to sell up to $163 billion if markets fall. That is an 18-to-1 imbalance between upside support and downside pressure.

Companies are also entering their September buyback blackout period, when they cannot legally repurchase their own shares ahead of earnings. That removes another major buyer at the same time.

Together, the market has limited support for a drop, but significant selling capacity that could make one worse.

✔️ @venture

🍏 What’s Inside iPhone 17 Pro

The semiconductor stack spans compute, connectivity, power, sensing and materials. 12 companies supply layers of the phone.

$TSM makes A19 Pro. $AVGO supplies RF and wireless charging, while Apple’s N1 handles primary Wi‑Fi and Bluetooth. $QCOM supplies Snapdragon X80 in Pro models for mmWave, before Apple’s C2 takes over.

$GLW supplies cover glass and Ceramic Shield. $STM covers Face ID, cameras and power management. $NXPI handles NFC, secure payment, USB‑C and connectivity.

$CRUS, $TXN and $ADI supply audio, analog, power and charging chips. $SONY makes camera sensors, while $QRVO and $SWKS provide RF modules and components for cellular signals.

✔️ @venture

💸Global Debt Interest Hits $2T

Global taxpayers now pay $2 trillion a year in interest without reducing principal. That is nearly $5.5 billion a day. Interest costs have already exceeded defense spending in Italy, the US, the UK, and France.

✔️ @venture

💻️ NVIDIA’s $105 Billion Lease Exposure

If OpenAI defaults, NVIDIA may take over a lease to satisfy the covered loss obligation under its $105 billion guarantee. It could also seek a replacement tenant, sell the assets, allow termination, or defer its choice for up to a year while paying specified costs. Takeover terms are redacted.

The arrangement covers 9 phases in Pike County, Ohio, designed for 4.25 gigawatts of capacity. Each has a 20-year lease, with the first expected to begin in NVIDIA’s fiscal 2029. NVIDIA may support another 3.8 gigawatts.

OpenAI’s affiliate has promised to reimburse NVIDIA, but the filings do not show whether that covers every obligation or whether payment would be timely. A qualifying credit rating for OpenAI or its parent could release NVIDIA before the first building opens.

✔️ @venture

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. cannot pause on AI because China will not. “Nothing would matter if China pulled away on AI.”

AI has a PR problem. As the buildout grows, hyperscalers must explain what their spending is enabling.

✔️ @venture

🍏 Apple’s First Foldable iPhone

$AAPL introduced its first foldable iPhone, the “iPhone Duo.”

✔️ @venture

The US Treasury bought back $12.5 billion in short-term debt today.

Today, it may buy up to $6 billion in long-term bonds, 3x normal.

✔️ @venture

🍏 Apple A20 Pro Chip

Apple's new 2nm A20 Pro chip delivers up to 20% faster CPU performance, 40% faster graphics and 50% more memory bandwidth. Its thermal design raises sustained performance 40% over iPhone 17 Pro and 2x over iPhone 16 Pro.

✔️ @venture

🍏 Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Strategy

iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max add the A20 Pro chip, Apple’s longest battery life yet, and upgraded low-light cameras.

Apple is moving more AI on-device, while keeping heavier workloads in its private cloud.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸 CLARITY Act Draft Adds Changes

A new 630-page draft of the CLARITY Act is circulating in the Senate ahead of the September 15 vote.

🖱️ DeFi protocols that are not truly decentralized may have to register with the CFTC.

🖱️ New DeFi rules would be limited to spot and cash transactions.

🖱️ The draft addresses Native American groups’ concerns about prediction markets.

🖱️ It reflects more than 100 changes requested by Democrats.

The bill is not bipartisan yet. Backers say the revisions are intended to build support before the floor vote.

✔️ @venture

🚖 Insiders Are Buying Uber

Uber's CEO bought $10M of Uber, taking 141,000 shares at $70.96 on September 10th.

🖱️ Uber President and COO Andrew M. bought $5.3M.

🖱️ Nancy Pelosi spent up to $1M on Uber calls in May.

🖱️ Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund holds $5.3B.

🖱️ Bill Ackman's Pershing Square holds $2.5B.

The buying suggests they are not worried about Tesla's Cybercab.

✔️ @venture

“At the height of the Nifty Fifty craziness, a home sewing company was selling for 50x earnings...”

“The Nifty Fifty was absolute dementia.”

Charlie Munger

✔️ @venture

📈 Markets Split on Inflation Data

Stocks, Bitcoin, and gold rallied after core CPI fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in over 5 years. Headline CPI held at 3.4%, mainly because oil rose on the Iran war, a supply shock rather than a broad demand rebound.

The market sees cooling core inflation as giving the Fed room to hold rates steady or cut later this year. Rate markets disagree, with Fed rate hike odds at 85% after the same report.

The difference is in the time frame. Monthly core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, driven by supercore services, which exclude both energy and shelter. That suggests real demand pressure, not just the impact of oil.

Risk assets are reacting to the 5-year trend in annual inflation. Rate markets are reacting to one hot monthly reading. Both views cannot hold for long.

If oil pressure eases and supercore cools next month, risk assets win the bet. If supercore stays hot, the Fed has cover to hike on September 17, making the rally in stocks and crypto look premature.

✔️ @venture

Warren Buffett vs. Cathie Wood.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Calls for AI Slowdown

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving itself so quickly that the industry needs to slow down.

He says AI models are already helping build the next generation of AI. He also points to OpenAI agents recently hacking systems they were not asked to attack as another reason his view changed.

Anthropic will let outside safety evaluators work inside the company with full access. Amodei wants every other AI lab to do the same.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Tightens Oil Risk

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after attacks interrupted the land route to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline had moved 4 million to 5 million barrels a day in recent months, allowing exports without tankers passing through Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia called the shutdown precautionary and gave no restart date or estimate of lost exports. Stored oil could keep tankers loading temporarily, but ships leaving Yanbu may still be carrying oil delivered before the attacks.

Global inventories were already falling, with observed stocks down 95 million barrels in August. If usable stocks at Yanbu run out, buyers could face delayed cargoes and need replacement supplies. The key issue is whether fresh oil is reaching the port fast enough to sustain scheduled shipments.

✔️ @venture

🤖 AI Stocks Face a Safety Brake

The heads of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are calling for slower AI development. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI is improving faster than it can be safely controlled.

The five largest tech companies are committing roughly $700 billion this year to AI infrastructure. A deliberate slowdown could push the payoff years further out while spending continues.

Lawmakers are pushing mandatory safety audits and reporting for major labs. Researchers who left OpenAI and Anthropic also warn that the technology needs more caution.

That leaves three threats: builders calling for a slowdown, regulators closing in, and spending rising. The trade has climbed for 3 to 4 years.

✔️ @venture

🚤 Longer Routes Tighten Supertanker Supply

A US Gulf-China supertanker voyage was assessed above $35 million on 11 September. Longer routes and ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied, reducing availability for the next cargo.

China’s August crude imports were 23.4% lower year on year, while refined-fuel exports were about 13% higher. Kpler estimated onshore crude stocks fell by 550,000 barrels a day.

Stocks can defer purchases but do not guarantee cheap delivery when China replenishes them. Imports could rise while tankers remain tied up, increasing shipping demand without an empty-tank emergency.

Watch September arrivals and inventories together. Higher imports alone cannot show whether China is rebuilding stocks or processing more oil.

✔️ @venture