A list of 20 types of stocks.

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☁️ Oracle’s Customer-Funded AI Buildout

$11.4 billion in customer advances helped Oracle report operating cash flow of $23.1 billion, up 184%. Yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion for the quarter.

The advances fund infrastructure before delivery, but they are not free cash. Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capital projects and reported $18.0 billion of net cash outlay after deducting advances.

Treating $18.0 billion as spending creates an apparent $5.1 billion surplus, but it counts the advances twice. Oracle’s own calculation uses the full spending figure.

Cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.4 billion, while Oracle added 850 megawatts of data-centre capacity. If advances slow while construction spending stays high, funding must come from elsewhere or spending must adjust.

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🤩The Rule Behind AI Obedience

Ask an AI assistant to block a gambling app for 30 days, and to keep the block even if you later ask for it back. On day 2, you ask for access. Both outcomes are obedience. One instruction has to lose.

Most systems let the most recent request win. That is a position on whether you can bind your later self, set silently above the settings you chose. The hidden question is whether your settings survive you.

The law answers this differently. In Europe, the Consumer Rights Directive gives you 14 days to withdraw from a distance contract. Article 25 says this right cannot be waived or restricted to the consumer’s detriment. The law sides with your later self.

Dutch mental health law takes the opposite view. A person aged 16 or over can make a self-binding declaration naming compulsory care for a future crisis. It requires a care plan, a responsible clinician, an independent doctor, signatures, and court authorisation.

Two societies wrote opposite rules into law. An assistant answers the same question every time, but no one wrote its rule down or offered it to you. You can choose the rule, but not always the rule about the rule.

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U.S. stocks lost $490 billion in 25 minutes after the Fed raised rates 25 bps. Warsh warned inflation is still elevated.

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🛢China Crude Futures Hit Record

China’s benchmark crude futures hit a record 929.4 yuan a barrel after a major Middle East pipeline shutdown disrupted supply. Chinese refiners bought more cargoes, lifting the Shanghai contract to its highest since launching in 2018. Oman and Murban crude also trade above $126 a barrel.

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Cathie Wood calls SPCX a “deep value opportunity.” Meanwhile, ARKK sold 859,000 Nvidia shares at the bottom of Q4 2022.

The sale cost investors over $850M in potential profits.

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"If the new thing isn’t better than what is available, it hasn’t met your threshold; then that screens out 99% of what you see, and it’s an enormous thought conserver. That is not taught in business schools.”

Charlie Munger.

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📉 Treasury Yields Fall

After rate hike, the 10-year yield fell to 4.94% and the 20-year yield to 5.337%.

The move suggests the bond market is pricing in lower inflation after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation under control.

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☺️ AMD Chip Prices

AMD is reportedly preparing to raise chip prices by ~10% as higher TSM wafer costs flow through to customers.

The increases are expected to hit AI accelerators and consumer GPUs in Q4, as advanced-node manufacturing gets more expensive.

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“You don't need a lot of brains in this business…What you do need is emotional stability.

You have to be able to think independently: when you come to a conclusion, you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and your reasoning.”

Warren Buffett

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🥋 BOJ Signals Further Rate Hikes

The Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to raise rates to 1.25%. Further hikes will depend on activity, prices, and financial conditions.

Underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target as wage growth, rising expectations, a weak yen, higher oil prices, and strong AI-related demand push up selling prices.

The economy is recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth, and AI-related demand. CPI is expected to move clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026, while financial conditions remain accommodative.

Governor Ueda’s remarks will be watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes.

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❤️‍🔥 Coffee Prices Fall 20%

Coffee prices are down 20% this year as supply exceeds demand for the first time in 4 years.

Brazil, the world's top coffee producer, is behind the surplus, with exports up 40% from a year ago.

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Trump says he is creating an AI Force and will appoint an AI czar. The U.S. will not slow or stifle AI development.

AI could eventually account for 25% of U.S. GDP.

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📉 Oracle’s Filings Under Scrutiny

Michael Burry says Big Tech filings may not show the full scale of AI commitments. Oracle is his main example, with $288B in leases it has not started paying.

🖱️ CEOs sign filings under oath, and lying on them is a crime.

🖱️ The filings do not show how much AI demand comes from companies buying each other’s products.

🖱️ Oracle’s 121% growth figure includes this type of revenue, without disclosing how much.

🖱️ Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle made $400B in profit last year, a fraction of their committed spending.

Burry is not calling it fraud. His point is that the truth may not be in the filings.

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A 1964 prediction about our AI future.

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🕊 A Ceasefire With a Missing Party

Published by Oman on 6th May 2025, the one-sentence deal bars Houthi and US attacks on each other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia is not mentioned, while Israel was excluded by the Houthis.

The arrangement has held: no American bomb has fallen since then, and no confirmed Houthi strike on a US target has been recorded. US officials say ships still targeted are Saudi.

That leaves a policy contradiction. More than 100 US military personnel are reportedly in Saudi Arabia, providing targeting data to aircraft fighting the Houthis.

The coalition said it destroyed Friday’s missile, but AFP saw a burning Aramco-branded fuel tank and the Journal reported hits to jet-fuel facilities. The cause remains unconfirmed, but the strike reached Riyadh for the first time since March 2022.

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🛢 Oil Inventories Near Operational Floor

Global oil inventories are projected to hit their operational floor of 6.8 billion barrels this month if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, according to JPMorgan.

Below that level, pipelines cannot maintain pressure and refineries start failing, regardless of the oil price. It would be the first time in recorded history that physical oil availability, not just price, becomes the concern.

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Ⓜ️ Meta’s Narrative Turns on Price

Meta shows how quickly the market can change its narrative once the stock starts working. The same capex, AI spending, and installed base that were ignored suddenly look like advantages.

Muse was the turning point. Meta showed a consumer AI product with clear monetization through paid tiers, while plugging the agent into apps and services people already use.

The lesson is to build conviction before the story feels obvious, so the position is in place before everyone else pays up for the same thesis.

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🍏 Apple Pay Eyes Stablecoins

Apple, with over 2 billion users, is hiring an Apple Pay strategy lead with stablecoin and blockchain experience.

That could bring stablecoins into one of the world's largest payment ecosystems.

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💵 Schwab Cash Rates Compared

On 21st September 2026, $10,000 in Schwab’s Bank Sweep at 0.01% would earn about $1 yearly. The same amount in managed portfolios’ cash allocation at 3.29% would earn about $329, before tax and account costs.

Deposit insurance covers eligible bank deposits within limits, but does not set rates. The 3.29% applies only to cash in Schwab Intelligent Portfolios, not the full portfolio, which carries market risk and expenses.

The Fed’s 3.75% to 4% target range took effect on 16 September, after the 3.29% rate began on 1 September. Intelligent Portfolios resets monthly. Ordinary cash rates can change at Schwab’s discretion.

Schwab One Interest may pay $0 for a day when interest is below half a cent. At 0.01% on $10,000, daily interest is about 0.27 cents. The 15th October 2026 expectation is 0.01% for ordinary cash and above 3.29% for managed cash.

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