🕊 A Ceasefire With a Missing Party

Published by Oman on 6th May 2025, the one-sentence deal bars Houthi and US attacks on each other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Saudi Arabia is not mentioned, while Israel was excluded by the Houthis.

The arrangement has held: no American bomb has fallen since then, and no confirmed Houthi strike on a US target has been recorded. US officials say ships still targeted are Saudi.

That leaves a policy contradiction. More than 100 US military personnel are reportedly in Saudi Arabia, providing targeting data to aircraft fighting the Houthis.

The coalition said it destroyed Friday’s missile, but AFP saw a burning Aramco-branded fuel tank and the Journal reported hits to jet-fuel facilities. The cause remains unconfirmed, but the strike reached Riyadh for the first time since March 2022.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Oil Inventories Near Operational Floor

Global oil inventories are projected to hit their operational floor of 6.8 billion barrels this month if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, according to JPMorgan.

Below that level, pipelines cannot maintain pressure and refineries start failing, regardless of the oil price. It would be the first time in recorded history that physical oil availability, not just price, becomes the concern.

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Ⓜ️ Meta’s Narrative Turns on Price

Meta shows how quickly the market can change its narrative once the stock starts working. The same capex, AI spending, and installed base that were ignored suddenly look like advantages.

Muse was the turning point. Meta showed a consumer AI product with clear monetization through paid tiers, while plugging the agent into apps and services people already use.

The lesson is to build conviction before the story feels obvious, so the position is in place before everyone else pays up for the same thesis.

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🍏 Apple Pay Eyes Stablecoins

Apple, with over 2 billion users, is hiring an Apple Pay strategy lead with stablecoin and blockchain experience.

That could bring stablecoins into one of the world's largest payment ecosystems.

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💵 Schwab Cash Rates Compared

On 21st September 2026, $10,000 in Schwab’s Bank Sweep at 0.01% would earn about $1 yearly. The same amount in managed portfolios’ cash allocation at 3.29% would earn about $329, before tax and account costs.

Deposit insurance covers eligible bank deposits within limits, but does not set rates. The 3.29% applies only to cash in Schwab Intelligent Portfolios, not the full portfolio, which carries market risk and expenses.

The Fed’s 3.75% to 4% target range took effect on 16 September, after the 3.29% rate began on 1 September. Intelligent Portfolios resets monthly. Ordinary cash rates can change at Schwab’s discretion.

Schwab One Interest may pay $0 for a day when interest is below half a cent. At 0.01% on $10,000, daily interest is about 0.27 cents. The 15th October 2026 expectation is 0.01% for ordinary cash and above 3.29% for managed cash.

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Tesla shares are up 5,581% since this 2013 headline.

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NVIDIA director Mark Stevens sold nearly $947M in $NVDA shares in under a month.

🖱️ Aug 31-Sep 2: Sold $410.8M in $NVDA shares.

🖱️ Sep 4: Sold an additional $235.6M in $NVDA shares.

🖱️ Sep 18: Sold an additional $300M in shares.

Stevens has held a board seat since 2008 and still holds $6.3B in $NVDA.

✔️ @venture

🇨🇳 China’s Gold Demand Surges

China spent nearly $160 billion on gold in the last 8 months, even as prices reached $5,595 this year.

The government sees gold as a safe store of funds with no counterparty risk. Domestic investors are also turning to it as real estate and stocks struggle, while the 10-year bond yield is just 1.67%.

China imported more than 1,000 tonnes this year, exceeding its entire 2025 volume. Demand shows no sign of fading.

✔️ @venture

“The greatest investors make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction.” - Stanley Druckenmiller.

There’s a fine line between confident and overconfident. Positions should be large enough to capture opportunity, small enough to keep you in the game.

✔️ @venture

Palantir crossed $190 for the first time in a year.

$PLTR is up 669% since Jim Simons disclosed a $21M stake. He opened it in Q2 2021.

✔️ @venture

📉 10-Year Yield at 2007 High

The 10-year bond yield is at its highest level since July 2007.

Three months later, the global financial crisis began, and the Nasdaq fell 56% over the next 16 months.

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"Those who keep learning will keep rising in life."

Charlie Munger

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🆗 BNP Raises NBIS Price Target

BNP upgraded NBIS to Outperform and raised its price target to $399, modeling $22B+ in exit 2027 ARR as AI cloud pricing moves toward $40M/MW.

With Meta and Microsoft largely ramped by early 2027, BNP sees a sharp reset higher in incremental-capacity economics, with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin adding another leg of upside.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ AI Risk Claims Face Investor Skepticism

Sam Altman and Dario Amodei told the UN Security Council that AI could be “a risk to humanity as a whole” and warned that we could “lose control of the future to AI.” Ten days earlier, Michael Burry called the message self-serving hype.

🖱️ LLMs are not AI and will not become AGI, so there is nothing to slow down.

🖱️ Competition is arriving quickly, which could reduce the benefits for incumbents.

🖱️ IPO candidates need hype. Saying “we are so awesome it could become dangerous” fits that pattern.

🖱️ The warnings may also provide cover for slowing growth if planned IPOs are pushed out.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX President Sells $52.55M

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president, sold $52.55M of $SPCX.

She has run daily operations since 2008, shares sold for $151-$155 each.

342,170 shares sold across 5 transactions on Sept 22, she still holds $366M in $SPCX.

✔️ @venture

📊 A Narrow Market Beneath the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, but almost half of its stocks are moving differently from the index. Goldman says the divergence resembles the Tech Bubble.

Market concentration is driving the gap. The 10 largest stocks account for around 40% of the S&P 500, and many are benefiting from the AI boom. Their size can lift the index even as broader participation weakens.

The rest of the market is facing higher bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar, and higher borrowing costs. Record levels in the S&P 500 do not mean most stocks are performing well.

✔️ @venture

Top investing books.

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What “Smart Money” bought last quarter.

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📊 Risk Types

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A $10,000 investment a decade ago produced:

🖱️ Nvidia, $1,355,800.

🖱️ AMD, $964,300.

🖱️ Sterling, $684,000.

🖱️ Micron, $601,300.

🖱️ Comfort Systems, $570,300.

🖱️ Arista, $383,200.

🖱️ Celestica, $350,400.

Nvidia was the clear leader.

✔️ @venture