📉 10-Year Yield at 2007 High

The 10-year bond yield is at its highest level since July 2007.

Three months later, the global financial crisis began, and the Nasdaq fell 56% over the next 16 months.

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"Those who keep learning will keep rising in life."

Charlie Munger

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🆗 BNP Raises NBIS Price Target

BNP upgraded NBIS to Outperform and raised its price target to $399, modeling $22B+ in exit 2027 ARR as AI cloud pricing moves toward $40M/MW.

With Meta and Microsoft largely ramped by early 2027, BNP sees a sharp reset higher in incremental-capacity economics, with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin adding another leg of upside.

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⚠️ AI Risk Claims Face Investor Skepticism

Sam Altman and Dario Amodei told the UN Security Council that AI could be “a risk to humanity as a whole” and warned that we could “lose control of the future to AI.” Ten days earlier, Michael Burry called the message self-serving hype.

🖱️ LLMs are not AI and will not become AGI, so there is nothing to slow down.

🖱️ Competition is arriving quickly, which could reduce the benefits for incumbents.

🖱️ IPO candidates need hype. Saying “we are so awesome it could become dangerous” fits that pattern.

🖱️ The warnings may also provide cover for slowing growth if planned IPOs are pushed out.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX President Sells $52.55M

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president, sold $52.55M of $SPCX.

She has run daily operations since 2008, shares sold for $151-$155 each.

342,170 shares sold across 5 transactions on Sept 22, she still holds $366M in $SPCX.

✔️ @venture

📊 A Narrow Market Beneath the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, but almost half of its stocks are moving differently from the index. Goldman says the divergence resembles the Tech Bubble.

Market concentration is driving the gap. The 10 largest stocks account for around 40% of the S&P 500, and many are benefiting from the AI boom. Their size can lift the index even as broader participation weakens.

The rest of the market is facing higher bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar, and higher borrowing costs. Record levels in the S&P 500 do not mean most stocks are performing well.

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Top investing books.

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What “Smart Money” bought last quarter.

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📊 Risk Types

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A $10,000 investment a decade ago produced:

🖱️ Nvidia, $1,355,800.

🖱️ AMD, $964,300.

🖱️ Sterling, $684,000.

🖱️ Micron, $601,300.

🖱️ Comfort Systems, $570,300.

🖱️ Arista, $383,200.

🖱️ Celestica, $350,400.

Nvidia was the clear leader.

✔️ @venture

Nano Banc became the 6th US bank to fail in 2026.

Over 25% of its loans went bad, mostly tied to commercial real estate.

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Fair Isaac is down 64% from its highs. This is the backside of concentration. $FICO

When a fund's largest holding moves against it, investors will surely leave. Fund management is tough.

✔️ @venture

AI token pricing is collapsing, while usage is exploding as reasoning models and agents consume far more tokens per task.

That should drive more AI usage across $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and $AMZN. $NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO power the compute stack, while $MU and $SKHY supply memory.

✔️ @venture

💻️ Nvidia’s Buyback Meets Cash Flow

The board raised Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion on 28 September, with use expected by January 2028. That implies about $15 billion a month, versus average free cash flow of $11.6 billion a month in the six months to July.

The authorization is permission, not spending, and can be suspended. Nvidia bought $19.7 billion of stock last quarter, or about $6.6 billion a month. Cash flow fell from $48.6 billion in the first quarter to $21.3 billion in the second.

The CFO said Nvidia plans to return 50% or more of free cash flow, versus 60% so far this year. In July, it held $56.6 billion in cash and debt securities, plus $42.8 billion in listed stock stakes, and sold $25 billion of bonds in June.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸Tariff Relief Excludes Soybeans

The US and China published tariff cut lists covering $60 billion in trade under a new "30-for-30" deal. China’s 1,600+ item list excludes soybeans, the product the US wanted most.

US soybean exports to China were worth $12.8 billion in 2024. That equals 43% of the $30 billion tariff relief package.

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“The most important thing in investments is not having a high IQ…The most important thing is realism and discipline.”

“You don’t need to be extraordinarily bright to do well in investments if you are realistic and disciplined.”

Warren Buffett

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"If you want to be successful in business and in life, you have to create more than you consume."

Jeff Bezos

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🛢 Brent Curve and EIA Outlook

November Brent expires Today. On 29 September at 12:30 UTC, November traded at $103.91 and December at $96.41. A contract-switching service can therefore show a $7.50 lower price without the underlying becoming cheaper.

The EIA's 2027 outlook puts Brent at an average of $73.74, assuming most Gulf production and trade return to pre-conflict averages by the second quarter. Futures sit $9.67 to $11.84 higher in the cited calendar comparisons, with the gap widening to about $16 to $17 by the fourth quarter. Risk compensation means this gap alone does not show that futures traders expect the EIA to be wrong.

The view here is that Brent will stay above the EIA's 2027 path. The cited calls include a 70% chance that the EIA raises its 2027 average, a 95% chance that it cuts its end-October US gas storage forecast below 3,969 billion cubic feet, and an 18% chance of official confirmation of a US-Iran arrangement that reopens Hormuz before 3 November. The probabilities are judgments, not calibrated model results.

✔️ @venture

The Iranian rial hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar.

In Iran, $400 makes you a billionaire.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic IPO Filing

Anthropic filed an S-1 for an IPO after the congressional elections. Reuters highlighted key figures.

Revenue rose 12-fold in 2025. The two largest clients each account for 12% of revenue.

GAAP net loss in FY25 was $42 billion, while actual cash operating losses were about $8 billion. The rest reflects accounting for instruments convertible into Anthropic shares. Valuation could exceed $2 trillion.

✔️ @venture