Nearly 2 million Americans have been out of work for over 6 months, the 3rd-worst stretch since the Great Recession. Long-term unemployment now represents 27% of all jobless Americans, up from 17.8% in February 2023.
The 4.2% unemployment rate looks manageable, but people who lose their jobs are taking much longer to find new ones. Only the Great Recession and the COVID shutdown were worse, despite there being no recession or shutdown now.
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Trump announced a Super Intelligence Force on Sunday, led by intelligence chief Jay Clayton. It includes the FTC chair, the Pentagon research under secretary, and the personnel director.
The group will coordinate federal engagement with companies and outside groups, reporting to Trump and Susie Wiles. Clayton said it has 120 days to recommend oversight under existing authorities. It does not create a new law.
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a16z’s State of Markets II report says technology generated about 76% of S&P 500 profit growth in 2026. Capital is shifting from software toward physical infrastructure.
Big Tech profits are funding AI computing capacity, increasingly with debt. Demand is strong enough for older Nvidia A100 GPUs to retain high rental prices. New chips are not pushing out the old ones yet.
Adoption is still early. Almost 30% of S&P 500 companies report a measurable AI effect, but only about 2% track a specific metric. In spring, only about 2% of US households paid for an AI service. About 75% of public software companies are profitable, but only 30% grow faster than 20% a year.
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Leopold Aschenbrenner opened 4 option positions two weeks ago. He paid $96M, and all 4 expired in the money.
🖱️ Micron (MU), strike $1,000.
🖱️ SanDisk (SNDK), strike $1,600.
🖱️ Intel (INTC), strike $115.
🖱️ Marvell (MRVL), strike $250.
The positions returned 47%, generating about $45.6M in 2 weeks.
✔️ @venture
The positions returned 47%, generating about $45.6M in 2 weeks.
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The S&P 500 just hit its 28th record high of 2026, crossing $71 trillion in market cap for the first time.
🖱️ 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasury yields are at 24-year highs.
🖱️ Inflation is 3.4%, above expectations, while mortgage rates are 7.28%, the highest since 2023.
🖱️ The Fed is hiking rates for the first time since 2023. Unemployment has risen to 4.2%, a 3-month high.
🖱️ Gasoline is $4.36 a gallon, up 39% in a year. Diesel is above $6.3.
🖱️ Crude is near $88-$95 a barrel. Consumer sentiment is 48.1, the second-lowest in 74 years.
✔️ @venture
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Diversification is dying.
For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, its 10 largest stocks get about 41 cents: Nvidia ($NVDA) 8 cents, Apple ($AAPL) 7 cents, Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) 6 cents each, and Amazon ($AMZN) 4 cents.
Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron and AMD add 10 cents. The top 10 stocks represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies, which account for 23 cents. Big Tech effectively is the market
✔️ @venture
For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, its 10 largest stocks get about 41 cents: Nvidia ($NVDA) 8 cents, Apple ($AAPL) 7 cents, Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) 6 cents each, and Amazon ($AMZN) 4 cents.
Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron and AMD add 10 cents. The top 10 stocks represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies, which account for 23 cents. Big Tech effectively is the market
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US high-yield credit market stress is rising sharply, with spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds up to 12.0%, their widest level since November 2022.
Over the last 5 months, spreads surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%.
The increase is comparable to moves during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 correction. If this pace continues, spreads will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% this month.
The 2020 pandemic high was 19.6%. Credit stress is rising beneath the surface.
✔️ @venture
Over the last 5 months, spreads surged +298 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 peak of 11.4%.
The increase is comparable to moves during the 2022 bear market and the February-April 2025 correction. If this pace continues, spreads will exceed the 2022 peak of 12.9% this month.
The 2020 pandemic high was 19.6%. Credit stress is rising beneath the surface.
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Nike shares are down over 80% from their peak.
If they reclaim that high, investors buying here would make over 5x their money.
The latest quarter shows whether a turnaround is in sight.
✔️ @venture
If they reclaim that high, investors buying here would make over 5x their money.
The latest quarter shows whether a turnaround is in sight.
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The White House and the Fed are taking opposite positions on interest rates.
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, with every voting member backing the move.
🖱️ Fed: Most officials expect another hike by year-end. PCE inflation was 3.8% in August.
🖱️ Trump: “We should have the lowest interest rate in the world.”
🖱️ Trump: “You have a board that would like to see the country do badly.”
✔️ @venture
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, with every voting member backing the move.
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US banks seized 42% more homes in August than last year as more borrowers failed to repay loans.
30-year mortgage rates reached 7.60%, the highest since Nov 2023.
Home ownership is no longer affordable for the average US citizen.
✔️ @venture
30-year mortgage rates reached 7.60%, the highest since Nov 2023.
Home ownership is no longer affordable for the average US citizen.
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Goldman Sachs’s RSE-basket infographic shows tariffs aggressively drive key-goods prices but are not the main contributor, with AI demand and energy the biggest inflation shocks.
✔️ @venture
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Michael Burry says every bull-market top follows the same grieving cycle, with denial lasting 6 to 9 months or longer. He argues stimulus checks and broader monetary and fiscal support have delayed crashes for two decades.
🖱️ Denial. The market top forms here and can last 6 to 9 months or longer.
🖱️ Anger. Violent, steep drops follow early in a bear market.
🖱️ Bargaining. Value investors test fallen names, hoping for a bottom.
🖱️ Depression and acceptance. They close out the cycle.
Burry says monetary and fiscal stimulus has interrupted this grieving process for two decades straight.
✔️ @venture
Burry says monetary and fiscal stimulus has interrupted this grieving process for two decades straight.
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The “AI Big 10” now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap, including the Magnificent 7, Broadcom $AVGO, AMD $AMD, and Micron $MU.
This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low. The 2000 Dot-Com Bubble saw the Technology, Media & Telecom sector peak at 41%, while the Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% in the 1970s.
Japan’s equity bubble peaked at 44% in the 1980s. Only railroad stocks have significantly exceeded this concentration, reaching 63% of US market cap at their peak in the 1900s.
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The S&P 500 Telecommunication Services index fell 8.5% yesterday.
T-Mobile fell 12%, while Verizon and AT&T each fell 11%.
SpaceX bought a nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio and plans to launch Starlink Mobile, targeting existing carrier customers. Low-band signals reach inside buildings, addressing a key gap in satellite service.
Carriers rely heavily on monthly phone plans, putting subscribers and pricing at risk.
The telecom index is down 16% over the last 30 days.
✔️ @venture
T-Mobile fell 12%, while Verizon and AT&T each fell 11%.
SpaceX bought a nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio and plans to launch Starlink Mobile, targeting existing carrier customers. Low-band signals reach inside buildings, addressing a key gap in satellite service.
Carriers rely heavily on monthly phone plans, putting subscribers and pricing at risk.
The telecom index is down 16% over the last 30 days.
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