The US Treasury bought back $6 billion of its own debt to lower bond yields.

Total buybacks this month: $19.33 billion.

✔️ @venture

🇺🇸 US Deficit Hits $1.992 Trillion

The US budget deficit reached $1.992 trillion in fiscal 2026, up 12% from $1.775 trillion in 2025. It was the 3rd largest in US history, at about 6.2% of GDP, and the 25th straight year in the red. The last surplus was in 2001.

Revenue and spending both hit records at $5.403 trillion and $7.396 trillion. Social Security cost nearly $1.7 trillion, Medicare almost $1.1 trillion, and net interest topped $1 trillion, up from $970 billion last year.

Tariffs did not close the gap. After the Supreme Court struck them down in February, $144.6 billion in refunds nearly halved $317.8 billion in gross customs receipts. Gross national debt is now above $40.3 trillion. A near $2 trillion deficit outside a recession keeps the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, while bond supply pressure also weighs on high-multiple AI names.

✔️ @venture

🇹🇼 Taiwan’s Stock Boom Tests Fund Managers

Taiwan’s stock market is up 62% this year, making it the best-performing major market. Nearly 10% of listed stocks have doubled in value.

Fund managers cannot buy individual stocks in personal accounts. Some are leaving traditional asset managers for private trading firms and hedge funds with fewer restrictions. One 30-year-old analyst reportedly left in March and grew his portfolio more than 10X.

More than half of Taiwan’s 20 largest equity funds changed managers in the past 3 years. Some private trading firms now trade over NT$10 billion per month, while managers who stay reportedly lock away their devices during trading hours.

Taiwan’s financial regulator is reviewing the restrictions as more professionals leave fund management to trade for themselves.

✔️ @venture

💻️ Nvidia's Valuation and Demand Shift

Nvidia is trading near its cheapest valuation in a decade, despite guiding to roughly 70% growth next year.

Vera Rubin is expected to be its fastest product ramp ever.

Growth is broadening beyond hyperscalers.

ACIE customers grew 25% sequentially, versus 13% for hyperscalers, giving Nvidia another major source of demand.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Pays Up for AI Financing

Anthropic is offering Blackstone a yield of over 10% to finance its latest $60 billion AI chip deal. That is above the roughly 7% rate paid by borrowers with a similar credit profile in public bond markets.

Blackstone would invest $9 billion in junior debt backed by Anthropic’s five-year lease payments for Google’s custom AI chips.

The yield is also up from 8.5% four months ago, when Anthropic sold $4.4 billion of similar debt.

✔️ @venture

HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026

🖱️ $MRNA +639%

🖱️ $SNDK +447%

🖱️ $TWST +319%

🖱️ $DELL +259%

🖱️ $AXTI +215%

🖱️ $MU +208%

🖱️ $AEHR +200%

🖱️ $PENG +192%

🖱️ $MRVL +168%

🖱️ $BE +155%

🖱️ $AMD +147%

🖱️ $INTC +143%

🖱️ $LITE +124%

🖱️ $OSCR +122%

🖱️ $AAOI +117%

✔️ @venture

Ⓜ️ The Cost Gap in AI Intelligence

Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini cost about $0.40 per AI task, versus $2.34 for Anthropic's Opus 5. That is a nearly 6x gap in the cost of intelligence.

Meta and Google can monetize AI through cloud, ads, and commerce. That gives them more room to price models aggressively without relying entirely on subscriptions.

AI agents may choose the cheapest model that gets the job done, pressuring premium models to justify their pricing. More AI value could shift toward companies controlling infrastructure and distribution.

✔️ @venture

Commentary on the 1987 market crash.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ MSCI Warnings Hit National Markets

MSCI warnings have hit Turkey and Indonesia hard. Turkey’s stock market fell 23% after MSCI’s first warning in June. Indonesia’s fell 18% in 3 days after MSCI warned it could lose emerging-market status.

On Oct 15, MSCI froze changes to Turkey indexes. It will not add Turkish stocks or increase existing weights, limiting new foreign index buying. It could move Turkey from emerging-market to frontier or standalone status if there is no progress by June 2027.

The trigger is a fund scandal. Turkey’s regulator ordered the liquidation of 131 funds on Sept 17, after prosecutors investigated manipulation of thinly traded stocks through the funds.

✔️ @venture

📉 Hedge Funds Turn Defensive

Hedge fund net leverage has fallen to 43.7%, the largest weekly decline since Liberation Day in April 2025 and the 4th largest in 5 years. Net positioning is now at the 0th percentile across both 1-year and 5-year lookbacks, while gross leverage remains at the 90th percentile.

This suggests hedge funds are not abandoning the market. They are cutting long positions and adding shorts, creating selling pressure, especially in high-beta names. The move appears driven more by positioning and risk management than by a sudden deterioration in business fundamentals. Retail investors have not yet stepped in strongly enough to absorb the selling.

If macro conditions improve, hedge funds may have substantial exposure to rebuild, while retail investors could return as confidence recovers. That combination could support a sharp rally. Until then, volatility is likely to remain high. The focus is on businesses with intact long-term fundamentals, especially AI infrastructure, since earnings, cash flows, and operating performance ultimately drive valuations.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Oil Markets Trade on Rumors

Brent crude swung from $111.97 to $105.95 in three hours on one unconfirmed headline. WTI December futures made the same trip, falling from $101.37 to $95.25.

The report said Qatar and Pakistan had brokered a US-Iran compromise. Iran would receive interest on $6 billion of frozen funds in Qatar in exchange for a secret IAEA inspection. A person involved in the talks then said reports that a deal was close were wrong. Brent recovered above $108, while WTI moved back above $97. The 10-year Treasury yield also returned near 5.10% after dipping to 5.07%.

The market has little cushion. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982, at least 18 ships have come under fire around Hormuz in two weeks, and Trump has pledged no new strikes before the November 3 midterms. Every headline out of Tehran is now moving oil before traders can confirm it.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ US Warship Passage Draws Chinese Protest

Near Sabina Shoal, China said it tracked and monitored the USS Charleston on 20th October, calling the passage illegal without Chinese approval. The Philippines says the shoal is 75 nautical miles off Palawan, inside its exclusive economic zone.

Beijing referred to adjacent waters, unlike its August 2025 claim that a US warship entered Chinese territorial waters near Scarborough Shoal and was expelled. The US Navy denied that earlier claim.

The Philippines says lawful transit through international waters needs no permission. The same day, Taiwan said it drove Chinese coast guard ships from waters near Pratas Islands for the 12th time this year. Washington says its defence treaty covers attacks on Philippine forces and coast guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX Clears Its IPO Price

SpaceX is above its IPO price after 90 trading days, unlike Facebook at the same point. The company’s roughly $75 billion IPO priced shares at $135, and the stock closed at $147.79, up 9.5%. Facebook took more than 14 months to close back above its IPO price.

SpaceX still trails Arm and Alibaba, both up more than 40% after 90 trading days. The path has also been volatile, with shares reaching $201.80 in June before falling to $108 in August. At this point, the comparison shows relative post-IPO performance, not a steady climb.

✔️ @venture

📈 S&P 500 Earnings Concentration

Micron ($MU) and Nvidia ($NVDA) are expected to account for 36% of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q3 2026, contributing +5.2 and +4.6 percentage points to the index’s +27% YoY growth.

The next 8 contributors are projected to add +8.2 points, or ~30%. The remaining 490 stocks are expected to add +9.2 points, or 34%.

Excluding the top 10 contributors, earnings growth is estimated to decline -11% YoY.

Never in history has market concentration been like this.

✔️ @venture

📉 Treasury Yields Fall as AI Sells Off

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 5% for the first time since September 23, touching 4.996%. It fell about 15 basis points on the day and is roughly 30 basis points below the October 5 peak of 5.31%.

The move comes with Brent crude above $111, its highest level since May. The Nasdaq is down 2.2% and the S&P 500 is down 1.4% as META, TSLA, and AMZN slide. Money is rotating from AI stocks into bonds.

The US 10-year also traded below France’s 10-year yield for the first time in 13 years. The bond market is treating the AI selloff as a growth scare. If capex doubts spread, falling yields could become the cushion the rest of the market leans on.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ AI Agents Reach Bank Accounts

According to Axios, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are dealing with unauthorized third-party AI agents accessing customer accounts. Some reportedly acted beyond customers’ instructions.

The report came one day after hackers reportedly used Claude, Grok and other AI models to automate attacks on more than 400 financial targets in Latin America.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX’s AI Profitability Test

SpaceX revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion, with operating income of $2.8 billion. Its AI segment also reported $431 million in operating income, sending the stock up 8% and supporting the bull case for AI cloud providers.

The cash picture is less convincing. Free cash flow burn was nearly $10 billion, above the expected $8.6 billion, while the AI business alone spent $16.4 billion in the quarter. SpaceX is valued at $2.1 trillion, or about 36 times annualized revenue and 55 times annualized adjusted EBITDA. That is almost twice the combined value of the 7 largest defense companies.

SpaceX has effectively turned its AI business into a neocloud. Its xAI model trails Anthropic and OpenAI on reported token spend, so the company is selling computing power to other AI players. Musk expects 10 gigawatts of additional compute in 2027.

Jim Chanos estimates that cutting-edge data centers would require more than $500 billion in capital spending, while SpaceX says debt financing is available. Higher borrowing costs would make profitability harder to reach, as they have for CoreWeave.

✔️ @venture

Ⓜ️ Meta’s AI Spending Turns Cash Flow Negative

Meta’s free cash flow turned negative for the first time since its 2012 IPO year, reaching -$2.12B in Q3 versus +$10.63B a year ago. Capex hit $34.91B, above operating cash flow of $32.79B.

That puts 54% of revenue into servers and data centers. Meta raised the low end of its 2026 capex outlook to $135B, with no 2027 figure.

This is not a cash crunch. Revenue grew 26% and cash stood at $82.45B. Shares fell nearly 7%, and the 5-year CDS spread hit an all-time high. The market wants proof AI spending will pay off.

✔️ @venture

Two Elections, One Oil Tradeoff

Two elections over the next 10 days could move trillions in global markets. Israel votes on October 27, followed by US midterms on November 3. Both could shape the next phase of the Iran war-and the path of oil, inflation, stocks, and crypto.

🖱️ In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu favors military risk and strikes on Iran, which could spike oil. Opposition leader Eisenkot supports military action but favors caution and diplomacy. The opposition leads projected seats 54-48, 61 are needed for a majority.

🖱️ In the US, Trump favors continued military pressure on Iran. Democrats want stricter limits on military action, and a win would put legislative pressure on his operations. Democrats lead with 52%, per the Washington Post.

🖱️ If aggressive military risk wins, oil could surge, inflation rise, and stocks and risk assets suffer. If cautious diplomacy takes hold, oil could ease, giving stocks and crypto relief.

Until the picture clears after November 4, oil and markets could remain volatile.

✔️ @venture

🖥 Microsoft’s Facebook Bet

Microsoft bought 1.6% of Facebook for $240 million in 2007. That stake would now be worth $26 billion.

✔️ @venture