📉 Hedge Funds Turn Defensive

Hedge fund net leverage has fallen to 43.7%, the largest weekly decline since Liberation Day in April 2025 and the 4th largest in 5 years. Net positioning is now at the 0th percentile across both 1-year and 5-year lookbacks, while gross leverage remains at the 90th percentile.

This suggests hedge funds are not abandoning the market. They are cutting long positions and adding shorts, creating selling pressure, especially in high-beta names. The move appears driven more by positioning and risk management than by a sudden deterioration in business fundamentals. Retail investors have not yet stepped in strongly enough to absorb the selling.

If macro conditions improve, hedge funds may have substantial exposure to rebuild, while retail investors could return as confidence recovers. That combination could support a sharp rally. Until then, volatility is likely to remain high. The focus is on businesses with intact long-term fundamentals, especially AI infrastructure, since earnings, cash flows, and operating performance ultimately drive valuations.

✔️ @venture

🛢 Oil Markets Trade on Rumors

Brent crude swung from $111.97 to $105.95 in three hours on one unconfirmed headline. WTI December futures made the same trip, falling from $101.37 to $95.25.

The report said Qatar and Pakistan had brokered a US-Iran compromise. Iran would receive interest on $6 billion of frozen funds in Qatar in exchange for a secret IAEA inspection. A person involved in the talks then said reports that a deal was close were wrong. Brent recovered above $108, while WTI moved back above $97. The 10-year Treasury yield also returned near 5.10% after dipping to 5.07%.

The market has little cushion. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982, at least 18 ships have come under fire around Hormuz in two weeks, and Trump has pledged no new strikes before the November 3 midterms. Every headline out of Tehran is now moving oil before traders can confirm it.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ US Warship Passage Draws Chinese Protest

Near Sabina Shoal, China said it tracked and monitored the USS Charleston on 20th October, calling the passage illegal without Chinese approval. The Philippines says the shoal is 75 nautical miles off Palawan, inside its exclusive economic zone.

Beijing referred to adjacent waters, unlike its August 2025 claim that a US warship entered Chinese territorial waters near Scarborough Shoal and was expelled. The US Navy denied that earlier claim.

The Philippines says lawful transit through international waters needs no permission. The same day, Taiwan said it drove Chinese coast guard ships from waters near Pratas Islands for the 12th time this year. Washington says its defence treaty covers attacks on Philippine forces and coast guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX Clears Its IPO Price

SpaceX is above its IPO price after 90 trading days, unlike Facebook at the same point. The company’s roughly $75 billion IPO priced shares at $135, and the stock closed at $147.79, up 9.5%. Facebook took more than 14 months to close back above its IPO price.

SpaceX still trails Arm and Alibaba, both up more than 40% after 90 trading days. The path has also been volatile, with shares reaching $201.80 in June before falling to $108 in August. At this point, the comparison shows relative post-IPO performance, not a steady climb.

✔️ @venture

📈 S&P 500 Earnings Concentration

Micron ($MU) and Nvidia ($NVDA) are expected to account for 36% of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q3 2026, contributing +5.2 and +4.6 percentage points to the index’s +27% YoY growth.

The next 8 contributors are projected to add +8.2 points, or ~30%. The remaining 490 stocks are expected to add +9.2 points, or 34%.

Excluding the top 10 contributors, earnings growth is estimated to decline -11% YoY.

Never in history has market concentration been like this.

✔️ @venture

📉 Treasury Yields Fall as AI Sells Off

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 5% for the first time since September 23, touching 4.996%. It fell about 15 basis points on the day and is roughly 30 basis points below the October 5 peak of 5.31%.

The move comes with Brent crude above $111, its highest level since May. The Nasdaq is down 2.2% and the S&P 500 is down 1.4% as META, TSLA, and AMZN slide. Money is rotating from AI stocks into bonds.

The US 10-year also traded below France’s 10-year yield for the first time in 13 years. The bond market is treating the AI selloff as a growth scare. If capex doubts spread, falling yields could become the cushion the rest of the market leans on.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ AI Agents Reach Bank Accounts

According to Axios, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are dealing with unauthorized third-party AI agents accessing customer accounts. Some reportedly acted beyond customers’ instructions.

The report came one day after hackers reportedly used Claude, Grok and other AI models to automate attacks on more than 400 financial targets in Latin America.

✔️ @venture

🚀 SpaceX’s AI Profitability Test

SpaceX revenue jumped 161% to $14.6 billion, with operating income of $2.8 billion. Its AI segment also reported $431 million in operating income, sending the stock up 8% and supporting the bull case for AI cloud providers.

The cash picture is less convincing. Free cash flow burn was nearly $10 billion, above the expected $8.6 billion, while the AI business alone spent $16.4 billion in the quarter. SpaceX is valued at $2.1 trillion, or about 36 times annualized revenue and 55 times annualized adjusted EBITDA. That is almost twice the combined value of the 7 largest defense companies.

SpaceX has effectively turned its AI business into a neocloud. Its xAI model trails Anthropic and OpenAI on reported token spend, so the company is selling computing power to other AI players. Musk expects 10 gigawatts of additional compute in 2027.

Jim Chanos estimates that cutting-edge data centers would require more than $500 billion in capital spending, while SpaceX says debt financing is available. Higher borrowing costs would make profitability harder to reach, as they have for CoreWeave.

✔️ @venture

Ⓜ️ Meta’s AI Spending Turns Cash Flow Negative

Meta’s free cash flow turned negative for the first time since its 2012 IPO year, reaching -$2.12B in Q3 versus +$10.63B a year ago. Capex hit $34.91B, above operating cash flow of $32.79B.

That puts 54% of revenue into servers and data centers. Meta raised the low end of its 2026 capex outlook to $135B, with no 2027 figure.

This is not a cash crunch. Revenue grew 26% and cash stood at $82.45B. Shares fell nearly 7%, and the 5-year CDS spread hit an all-time high. The market wants proof AI spending will pay off.

✔️ @venture

Two Elections, One Oil Tradeoff

Two elections over the next 10 days could move trillions in global markets. Israel votes on October 27, followed by US midterms on November 3. Both could shape the next phase of the Iran war-and the path of oil, inflation, stocks, and crypto.

🖱️ In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu favors military risk and strikes on Iran, which could spike oil. Opposition leader Eisenkot supports military action but favors caution and diplomacy. The opposition leads projected seats 54-48, 61 are needed for a majority.

🖱️ In the US, Trump favors continued military pressure on Iran. Democrats want stricter limits on military action, and a win would put legislative pressure on his operations. Democrats lead with 52%, per the Washington Post.

🖱️ If aggressive military risk wins, oil could surge, inflation rise, and stocks and risk assets suffer. If cautious diplomacy takes hold, oil could ease, giving stocks and crypto relief.

Until the picture clears after November 4, oil and markets could remain volatile.

✔️ @venture

🖥 Microsoft’s Facebook Bet

Microsoft bought 1.6% of Facebook for $240 million in 2007. That stake would now be worth $26 billion.

✔️ @venture

📊 A High-Stakes Week for Markets

The Fed, Big Tech earnings, U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan will all set the tone in the same week. With AI spending concerns growing and inflation rising again, the market reaction could be unusually broad.

🖱️ Fed: Rates are expected to stay at 3.75%-4.00%. A hawkish signal from Kevin Warsh or expectations of a December hike could pressure stocks.

🖱️ Big Tech: Alphabet and Microsoft, worth roughly $8 trillion combined, are expected to report about $128 billion and $90.6 billion in revenue. AI spending, cloud growth and monetization are key.

🖱️ AI trade: Amazon, Intel and Sandisk will offer more evidence on AWS growth, chips and memory demand.

🖱️ U.S. data: Headline PCE is expected at 3.6%, core PCE at 3.1% annually, and Q3 GDP growth at 3.2%. Hot inflation could revive rate-hike fears.

🖱️ Japan: The BOJ is expected to hold its 1.25% rate, but a surprise could strengthen the yen and pressure markets through the carry trade.

With the U.S. midterm elections also days away, strong earnings and cooler inflation could support stocks. Hot inflation, a more hawkish Fed and weak AI results would point the other way.

✔️ @venture

⚠️ U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Rise

Nearly 470,000 bankruptcy cases were filed in the U.S. in the first 9 months of 2026, up 11% from last year. Small business bankruptcies surged 46%.

Rising living costs, expensive loans, and mounting credit card debt are increasing pressure on households and small businesses. With inflation rising again, conditions could worsen.

✔️ @venture

🇮🇱 Israel’s Election and Caretaker Rule

Netanyahu can remain prime minister after the 27 October election without winning a new term or postponing the vote. Israel’s Basic Law keeps the outgoing government in place until a new one is formed.

Postponement is separate. It requires a law backed by 80 lawmakers and special circumstances that prevent voting on time. War does not automatically move the date.

On 25 October, Polymarket priced Gadi Eisenkot at 51% and Netanyahu at 29%. The contract covers the next prime minister formally appointed and sworn in, not caretaker service. Polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, or 62 in Channel 14. A majority is 61.

Eisenkot’s party leads in the first 3 surveys, but the largest party has no automatic right to form a government. The decisive test is a confidence vote, which can pass with abstentions and fewer than 61 votes in favor.

✔️ @venture

🤖 Anthropic Files for an IPO

Anthropic filed an S-1 with the SEC. Revenue reached 16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, versus 1.2 billion a year earlier.

The reported loss was 80.7 billion, but 72 billion came from revaluing debt instruments that will convert into shares. Actual spending was about 17 billion, including 9 billion on computing and infrastructure. Operating loss was 0.7 billion.

Anthropic says computing costs are growing slower than revenue and claims Q3 already shows a paper profit. It has 132 billion on hand, but computing commitments run into hundreds of billions through 2045. Seven founders will retain 50.1% of voting power, so buyers get an economic stake without control.

✔️ @venture

🖥 Microsoft Offers 60,000 Buyouts

The voluntary offer covers about 60,000 employees, or 27% of Microsoft’s full-time workforce. Microsoft had 223,000 full-time employees as of June 30.

Eligible staff at level 70 and below in the US, Canada, India and the UK can receive up to 39 weeks of base pay. Some sales, engineering and corporate teams are excluded, with departures at the end of the year.

An earlier retirement program reached about 9,000 people, with roughly a third accepting. The move links workforce reductions to continued AI and data center spending.

✔️ @venture

🎟️ TodayTix’s Pandemic Bet Paid Off

Great Hill Partners acquired a majority stake in TodayTix for $73 million in May 2019. By the end of 2019, the theater-ticketing startup had reached $100 million in annual revenue. Its trajectory later led to a sale to Ari Emanuel in 2025.

The timing became difficult almost immediately. TodayTix acquired U.K. competitor Encore Tickets in February 2020, then live events stopped and customers demanded refunds. Great Hill and outside advisers arranged additional debt and equity financing to keep the company solvent for the next 18 months.

The bet depended on the long-term potential of live events, technology, and marketplaces. Founder Brian Fenty says Great Hill was willing to keep investing despite the company losing money, backing a founder-led strategy through the industry’s sharpest contraction.

✔️ @venture

❕Copper One ($CEXY): An Asymmetric Bet on the Horizon?

Copper demand continues to grow, driven by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and expanding power infrastructure. The International Energy Agency projects a potential 25% copper supply shortfall by 2035, putting renewed attention on North American exploration companies.
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Copper One Resources has several developments worth watching:

➡️ Majuba Hill, Nevada: More than 90,000 feet of drilling completed, with a new program of up to 10,000 feet underway. Results from the previous drilling phase are still pending.

➡️ Redonda, British Columbia: The company recently identified visible copper mineralization approximately 600 metres beyond its main zone. Laboratory results are needed to confirm the findings.

➡️ Political developments: British Columbia's Conservatives have won their first majority since 1928, raising expectations of faster mining approvals and additional exploration incentives.

➡️Recent financing: Copper One raised approximately C$8 million at C$0.40 per share, providing additional funding for exploration. The stock is trading near that financing level.
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What comes next?

Upcoming drilling results will be important in determining whether Copper One's exploration targets can support a larger resource.

The broader copper supply outlook remains favorable, but Copper One is still an early-stage explorer. Its valuation depends heavily on drilling success, future financing, and the eventual economic viability of its projects.

With shares near recent lows, fresh capital secured, and several potential catalysts ahead, CEXY could be shaping up as an asymmetric bet. The upside depends on exploration results, while the risks remain significant.

CSE: CEXY | OTC: CEXYF | Frankfurt: IW8

📈 AI Financing Reaches Record Scale

“I've never seen anything like it in terms of the size of the financing that's coming in both debt markets, equity markets. The cost of debt has actually equilibrated in many ways to the cost of equity for some of these companies. I've heard people compare this to the internet bubble. These companies are throwing off real revenue, real cash flow.”

Rick Rieder, BlackRock.

AI borrowing has pushed U.S. high-grade bond sales to an annual record. Meta, SpaceX, and Broadcom have all raised debt in the past few days. When debt costs as much as equity, the biggest borrowers start selling stock.

✔️ @venture

💡 Fed Chair Warsh remains hawkish and focused on bringing price stability

🖱️ Fed keeps interest rates steady at 3.75-4%.

🖱️ Inflation remains elevated above the 2% target for over 6 years.

🖱️ Geopolitical uncertainty is the primary reason for rising inflation.

🖱️ Economic activity is expanding and the labour market remains strong.

🖱️ In 2027, the FOMC schedule will change, with the same 8 Fed meetings annually, but one meeting will focus only on monetary policy strategy without any rate decision.

🖱️ In 2028, the Fed will have two such monetary policy strategy meetings and six on rate decisions.

🖱️ Warsh says it is important to keep ‘time and space’ for such ‘strategic deliberations’ to focus on the ‘long-term horizon.’

🖱️ On December rate hikes, Warsh says the coming period is ‘information rich’ and future hikes will depend on it.

🖱️ Warsh says he is ‘unwilling and unable’ to call financial conditions tight.

🖱️ Warsh believes higher interest rates do affect AI spending, irrespective of revenues.

🖱️ Warsh clarified that ‘politics’ or ‘midterm elections’ had no role in today’s decision about Fed rates.

🖱️ Any decision on shrinking the Fed balance sheet will only come early in Q1 2027, after recommendations from a task force.

🖱️ Overall, he doesn’t see current economic growth causing inflation but is closely watching the numbers for the future.

✔️ @venture