Gold Now: Cooler Inflation and Gold Still Can't Rally
Gold is still pinned at the apex of the descending triangle... and a breakout could be coming. The big question: Up or Down?
The tell is what did not happen. Gold got the cool CPI and soft PPI it needed last week and failed to rally. Price sits where it did a week ago. When an asset gets its bullish catalyst and cannot convert, the other channel is dominant.
That channel is rates. Escalation lifted energy, and hike expectations firmed rather than eased. December odds are near 80%, up from 73% last week, and Hammack joined Logan and Jefferson flagging higher rates. Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price.
The framework is clean:
- rising hike odds mean weaker gold,
- falling odds mean stronger gold.
Watch FedWatch and yields.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is still pinned at the apex of the descending triangle... and a breakout could be coming. The big question: Up or Down?
The tell is what did not happen. Gold got the cool CPI and soft PPI it needed last week and failed to rally. Price sits where it did a week ago. When an asset gets its bullish catalyst and cannot convert, the other channel is dominant.
That channel is rates. Escalation lifted energy, and hike expectations firmed rather than eased. December odds are near 80%, up from 73% last week, and Hammack joined Logan and Jefferson flagging higher rates. Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price.
The framework is clean:
- rising hike odds mean weaker gold,
- falling odds mean stronger gold.
Watch FedWatch and yields.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A company hedges its oil exposure using futures contracts that don’t perfectly match its physical delivery location or grade. What risk remains even with the hedg
A company hedges its oil exposure using futures contracts that don’t perfectly match its physical delivery location or grade. What risk remains even with the hedg
Anonymous Quiz
8%
Basis risk - only available in equities and not commodities
8%
Basis risk - a proper hedges eliminates all price risk
13%
Basis risk - but futures guarantee identical movement to the physical asset
71%
Basis risk - the hedge and exposure can diverge in price, leaving residual risk
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USDJPY Now Surges to a Stunning 40-Year Low for the Yen
USDJPY breaks out of resistance that capped it for three weeks. Fresh four-decade lows for the yen, weakest since December 1986.
The differential is widening again. The US 2-year reclaimed its hourly moving averages at 4.187% after Friday's 4.11% low, with 4.215% next. The 10-year is back above 4.566%. Against a BoJ at 1%, the gap is roughly 2.75 points and just got wider.
Oil is the engine. Crude briefly plunged to 79.58 on ceasefire and Hormuz reopening reports, then erased the loss to 81.87. Gasoline is back above 4.00 a gallon versus 2.98 before the war. That is the durable channel keeping the Fed higher for longer.
Intervention risk is acute, but Tokyo spent a record 11.73 trillion yen defending 160 and price was back above it in six weeks. Forced buying buys time, not direction. BoJ decides July 31.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY breaks out of resistance that capped it for three weeks. Fresh four-decade lows for the yen, weakest since December 1986.
The differential is widening again. The US 2-year reclaimed its hourly moving averages at 4.187% after Friday's 4.11% low, with 4.215% next. The 10-year is back above 4.566%. Against a BoJ at 1%, the gap is roughly 2.75 points and just got wider.
Oil is the engine. Crude briefly plunged to 79.58 on ceasefire and Hormuz reopening reports, then erased the loss to 81.87. Gasoline is back above 4.00 a gallon versus 2.98 before the war. That is the durable channel keeping the Fed higher for longer.
Intervention risk is acute, but Tokyo spent a record 11.73 trillion yen defending 160 and price was back above it in six weeks. Forced buying buys time, not direction. BoJ decides July 31.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Now Rallies on Ceasefire Hope With Oil Still Rising
Gold is up today, yet still pinned at the wedge apex. No breakout yet. The 200-day near 4,400 is the bigger hurdle for Gold bulls.
Today looks contradictory. Oil, yields, and the dollar are all firming, which should pressure gold, yet gold is green. The resolution is that gold is not trading today's conditions. It is trading the forward path: a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran that would cool oil, ease inflation, and soften the Fed.
That is a second-derivative trade on ceasefire probability, and it has run three times this year. March talks, the April two-week ceasefire, the June interim deal. Each lifted gold. Each unwound.
September hike odds sit at 64% into the FOMC next week. The apex resolves on whether the ceasefire is real. Reclaim 4,100 and 4,230 opens. Lose 3,850 with the war intact and the downside break is very real.
read the full article here,
— Alan
Gold is up today, yet still pinned at the wedge apex. No breakout yet. The 200-day near 4,400 is the bigger hurdle for Gold bulls.
Today looks contradictory. Oil, yields, and the dollar are all firming, which should pressure gold, yet gold is green. The resolution is that gold is not trading today's conditions. It is trading the forward path: a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran that would cool oil, ease inflation, and soften the Fed.
That is a second-derivative trade on ceasefire probability, and it has run three times this year. March talks, the April two-week ceasefire, the June interim deal. Each lifted gold. Each unwound.
September hike odds sit at 64% into the FOMC next week. The apex resolves on whether the ceasefire is real. Reclaim 4,100 and 4,230 opens. Lose 3,850 with the war intact and the downside break is very real.
read the full article here,
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the initial breakout will always result in a superior fill price.
Waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the initial breakout will always result in a superior fill price.
Anonymous Quiz
67%
True
33%
False
👀9👍5❤4
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US10Y Now Hits a Two-Month High as Real Yields Surge
US10Y trades near a fresh two-month high and the strongest since May 20. On the weekly, the war trendline off the late-February low held and price sits above it near 4.55%, uptrend resumed. The 200-week near 4.25% sits well below as dynamic support.
Futures show 26% odds of a hike next week, 71% by September and 88% by year end. Waller said the Fed may need to move in the near term, and the 1-year at 4.12% is pricing the start of a hike cycle.
Decompose the move and it changes the read. Five-year breakevens rose only to 2.31% from 2.21%, but 10-year real yields hit 2.375%, the highest since April 2025. Real yields are doing most of the work, so this is a policy and term premium story, not just an inflation scare.
That matters because a ceasefire alone will not unwind it. FHN's Compernolle called Waller's shift a new anchor independent of the war. Gilts are selling off on UK fiscal worry too. PCE July 30.
read the full article here.
— Alan
US10Y trades near a fresh two-month high and the strongest since May 20. On the weekly, the war trendline off the late-February low held and price sits above it near 4.55%, uptrend resumed. The 200-week near 4.25% sits well below as dynamic support.
Futures show 26% odds of a hike next week, 71% by September and 88% by year end. Waller said the Fed may need to move in the near term, and the 1-year at 4.12% is pricing the start of a hike cycle.
Decompose the move and it changes the read. Five-year breakevens rose only to 2.31% from 2.21%, but 10-year real yields hit 2.375%, the highest since April 2025. Real yields are doing most of the work, so this is a policy and term premium story, not just an inflation scare.
That matters because a ceasefire alone will not unwind it. FHN's Compernolle called Waller's shift a new anchor independent of the war. Gilts are selling off on UK fiscal worry too. PCE July 30.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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AUD/USD Now: Why a War Is Lifting the Aussie Higher
AUDUSD trades near a four-week high, after the 0.688 to 0.692 demand zone held. The rising 200-week sits just beneath that zone, making it real confluence and the risk-defined level. EdgeFinder reads +7, Very Bullish.
This is genuine AUD strength, not dollar weakness. Markets had the RBA finished at 4.35% with easing priced by late 2027. The oil shock flipped that. Roughly 76% odds of another hike by December, and the RBA's own forecasts pencil 4.7%.
AUD normally falls in geopolitical stress as a risk currency. It is rising because the conflict transmits through the rate channel, not the risk channel. Same war that destroyed the yen: Japan imports energy at 1%, Australia exports commodities at 4.35%.
Jobs Thursday, 15,000 expected at 4.4%, then Q2 CPI next week and the RBA August 11. A soft print unwinds the hike bets fast. Chasing mid-range into that is thin. The 0.690 confluence is the level.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD trades near a four-week high, after the 0.688 to 0.692 demand zone held. The rising 200-week sits just beneath that zone, making it real confluence and the risk-defined level. EdgeFinder reads +7, Very Bullish.
This is genuine AUD strength, not dollar weakness. Markets had the RBA finished at 4.35% with easing priced by late 2027. The oil shock flipped that. Roughly 76% odds of another hike by December, and the RBA's own forecasts pencil 4.7%.
AUD normally falls in geopolitical stress as a risk currency. It is rising because the conflict transmits through the rate channel, not the risk channel. Same war that destroyed the yen: Japan imports energy at 1%, Australia exports commodities at 4.35%.
Jobs Thursday, 15,000 expected at 4.4%, then Q2 CPI next week and the RBA August 11. A soft print unwinds the hike bets fast. Chasing mid-range into that is thin. The 0.690 confluence is the level.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold, 4H chart:
Price has broken out clean from the downward trend we've been seeing the last few weeks.
I'm watching for a pullback, with a long bias!
If I choose to take a position, I will share the trade alert in our VIP group.
Price has broken out clean from the downward trend we've been seeing the last few weeks.
I'm watching for a pullback, with a long bias!
If I choose to take a position, I will share the trade alert in our VIP group.
❤40👍14😱4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A carry trade unwind cannot occur unless the funding currency’s central bank raises interest rates first.
A carry trade unwind cannot occur unless the funding currency’s central bank raises interest rates first.
Anonymous Quiz
48%
True
52%
False
❤13👍4
USD/JPY Now: BoJ Needs To Outpace the Fed
USDJPY trades near 163.76 flying through recent resistance. That band now flips to first support on pullbacks.
Today settles the question. Bloomberg reported BoJ officials are open to hiking faster than the consensus six-month pace. The 2-year JGB hit a 31-year high, the yen rallied, and the move faded within hours.
The reason is that the differential is relative. Fed funds now prices two hikes for 2026 with the US 2-year up 1.18%, so the American side widened faster than Japan's hawkish signal could close it. A BoJ hike matters only if it outruns the Fed, and today it did not.
Oil at 92, up 6.79%, does double damage. It widens the US leg and hits Japan directly, since Japan imports energy. Juckes: the problem is oil dashing hopes of 1.5% growth, not a timid BoJ. BoJ decides July 31.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY trades near 163.76 flying through recent resistance. That band now flips to first support on pullbacks.
Today settles the question. Bloomberg reported BoJ officials are open to hiking faster than the consensus six-month pace. The 2-year JGB hit a 31-year high, the yen rallied, and the move faded within hours.
The reason is that the differential is relative. Fed funds now prices two hikes for 2026 with the US 2-year up 1.18%, so the American side widened faster than Japan's hawkish signal could close it. A BoJ hike matters only if it outruns the Fed, and today it did not.
Oil at 92, up 6.79%, does double damage. It widens the US leg and hits Japan directly, since Japan imports energy. Juckes: the problem is oil dashing hopes of 1.5% growth, not a timid BoJ. BoJ decides July 31.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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NASDAQ Now: Why Great Earnings Aren't Everything.
Nas trades near inside the 28,100 to 28,800 demand zone. Below this zone, the next demand at 26,000 converges with the rising 200-day near 26,400.
Alphabet grew revenue 24% with cloud up 82%, its strongest quarter in five years, and fell 5%. Tesla missed with negative free cash flow and fell 8%. TSM beat with 77% growth last week and fell 4%. Leadership is being sold on good numbers.
The mechanism is the discount rate. AI capex pushes cash flows further out, and Alphabet just raised 2026 capex to 205 billion. Long-duration assets are discounted at the real yield, and the 10-year hit 4.707%, the highest since January 2025.
Brent near 98 is up 33.7% on the month. Capex is only punished when the discount rate rises. Lose 28,100 and 26,400 opens.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Nas trades near inside the 28,100 to 28,800 demand zone. Below this zone, the next demand at 26,000 converges with the rising 200-day near 26,400.
Alphabet grew revenue 24% with cloud up 82%, its strongest quarter in five years, and fell 5%. Tesla missed with negative free cash flow and fell 8%. TSM beat with 77% growth last week and fell 4%. Leadership is being sold on good numbers.
The mechanism is the discount rate. AI capex pushes cash flows further out, and Alphabet just raised 2026 capex to 205 billion. Long-duration assets are discounted at the real yield, and the 10-year hit 4.707%, the highest since January 2025.
Brent near 98 is up 33.7% on the month. Capex is only punished when the discount rate rises. Lose 28,100 and 26,400 opens.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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