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❤22🔥4🙏1
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2️⃣ Every $5k of account size earns you more entries (purchases stack!).
3️⃣ Use our code A1TRADING at checkout to secure your challenge.
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❤13
Gold Analysis: Buy or Sell? It's Easy.
Gold gets pressured and falls 2.8% to 4,005, the lowest since July 1. Price sits at the point of a descending triangle: the trendline off the February highs converges with the 3,880 to 4,050 demand zone. The 200-day near 4,450 sits above price as resistance.
Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% levy on Hormuz cargo. Oil jumped 5%. Higher energy costs feed inflation, pushing the Fed higher for longer. FedWatch prices a 71% chance of a September hike.
Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price. With US real yields near 2008 highs and hike odds climbing, the cost of holding bullion is rising. Geopolitical fear normally bids gold. Here the rate channel is overwhelming the haven channel.
Tomorrow's CPI is in focus. Hot CPI with oil and yields firm breaks the zone, opening 3,800 then 3,500. Cool CPI with oil tamed lifts price toward 4,250. Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold gets pressured and falls 2.8% to 4,005, the lowest since July 1. Price sits at the point of a descending triangle: the trendline off the February highs converges with the 3,880 to 4,050 demand zone. The 200-day near 4,450 sits above price as resistance.
Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% levy on Hormuz cargo. Oil jumped 5%. Higher energy costs feed inflation, pushing the Fed higher for longer. FedWatch prices a 71% chance of a September hike.
Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price. With US real yields near 2008 highs and hike odds climbing, the cost of holding bullion is rising. Geopolitical fear normally bids gold. Here the rate channel is overwhelming the haven channel.
Tomorrow's CPI is in focus. Hot CPI with oil and yields firm breaks the zone, opening 3,800 then 3,500. Cool CPI with oil tamed lifts price toward 4,250. Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/JPY Now Erases the Yen Rally as Tokyo Walks It Back
USDJPY trades near 162.36, up 0.42%, back into the 162.5 to 163.0 resistance that capped it in early July.
Friday's yen rally has been retraced in full. Reuters reports Tokyo has no immediate plans to change GPIF target allocations, only to work within existing ranges. A government source conceded markets reacted more than expected.
GPIF is mandated to invest solely for beneficiaries and cannot deploy assets to advance policy goals. Verbal encouragement cannot compel flow. Only the rate differential moves this pair, so far. I think until there are tangible targets and a timeline, this remains a hopeful (idea) that can help bring Yen strength.
Forced buying was sand against the carry, and the market repriced it in one session. Chasing 162.5 to 163.0 near 40-year lows carries intervention risk. Dips toward 160.5 remain the trend side.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY trades near 162.36, up 0.42%, back into the 162.5 to 163.0 resistance that capped it in early July.
Friday's yen rally has been retraced in full. Reuters reports Tokyo has no immediate plans to change GPIF target allocations, only to work within existing ranges. A government source conceded markets reacted more than expected.
GPIF is mandated to invest solely for beneficiaries and cannot deploy assets to advance policy goals. Verbal encouragement cannot compel flow. Only the rate differential moves this pair, so far. I think until there are tangible targets and a timeline, this remains a hopeful (idea) that can help bring Yen strength.
Forced buying was sand against the carry, and the market repriced it in one session. Chasing 162.5 to 163.0 near 40-year lows carries intervention risk. Dips toward 160.5 remain the trend side.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Fed's dot plot represents a binding commitment to a specific rate path that markets can rely on for positioning
The Fed's dot plot represents a binding commitment to a specific rate path that markets can rely on for positioning
Anonymous Quiz
56%
True
44%
False
❤13👍6
DXY Now Slides as CPI Posts Its Biggest Drop in 6 Years
DXY softens, sitting on key support and the ascending trendline off the May lows.
June CPI fell 0.4% against a 0.1% consensus decline, the largest drop since April 2020, with the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core was flat, the best since January 2021. A July hike is off the table, September odds fell to 63%, and DXY is down 0.5%.
The caveat is decisive. The disinflation was energy, not breadth: energy fell 5.7% and gasoline 9.7%, both reflecting June oil. Oil has since reclaimed its 200-day and the blockade begins today. CPI will not capture that for a month.
Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong. Lose 100.45 with oil tamed and the Fed refocusing on softening labor, and dollar shorts have their setup. Hold it with oil sticky, and 101.7 returns. Warsh testifies today.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY softens, sitting on key support and the ascending trendline off the May lows.
June CPI fell 0.4% against a 0.1% consensus decline, the largest drop since April 2020, with the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core was flat, the best since January 2021. A July hike is off the table, September odds fell to 63%, and DXY is down 0.5%.
The caveat is decisive. The disinflation was energy, not breadth: energy fell 5.7% and gasoline 9.7%, both reflecting June oil. Oil has since reclaimed its 200-day and the blockade begins today. CPI will not capture that for a month.
Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong. Lose 100.45 with oil tamed and the Fed refocusing on softening labor, and dollar shorts have their setup. Hold it with oil sticky, and 101.7 returns. Warsh testifies today.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Surprise Canadian Job Report Is Now Sending USD/CAD Lower
USDCAD is breaking down hard through the 1.410 shelf that framed early July. Next demand is 1.390 to 1.395. The rising 200-day near 1.385 sits just beneath it.
Both legs now push the same way. Cool US CPI killed the July hike and cut September odds to 63%, softening the dollar. Canada added 18,200 jobs in June against a 10,000 consensus, with unemployment at 6.5%, a two-year low, removing the case for BoC cuts.
Oil is the reversal. Brent is above 85, up over 10% on the week, with the blockade live today. Rising crude used to lift USD through the Fed channel. That channel is now severed, so oil flows purely into CAD terms-of-trade strength.
The 1.395 long is technically sound but fundamentally uphill for now. Canada's jobs gains were part-time and World Cup inflated, and goods-producing shed 43,700. BoC decides tomorrow. Wait for oil to stall before sizing the dip.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCAD is breaking down hard through the 1.410 shelf that framed early July. Next demand is 1.390 to 1.395. The rising 200-day near 1.385 sits just beneath it.
Both legs now push the same way. Cool US CPI killed the July hike and cut September odds to 63%, softening the dollar. Canada added 18,200 jobs in June against a 10,000 consensus, with unemployment at 6.5%, a two-year low, removing the case for BoC cuts.
Oil is the reversal. Brent is above 85, up over 10% on the week, with the blockade live today. Rising crude used to lift USD through the Fed channel. That channel is now severed, so oil flows purely into CAD terms-of-trade strength.
The 1.395 long is technically sound but fundamentally uphill for now. Canada's jobs gains were part-time and World Cup inflated, and goods-producing shed 43,700. BoC decides tomorrow. Wait for oil to stall before sizing the dip.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A "round trip" in trading refers to:
A "round trip" in trading refers to:
Anonymous Quiz
10%
Completing both the entry and exit of a position — but entering is a round trip on its own
12%
Completing both the entry and exit of a position — though round trips only count if profitable
70%
Completing both the entry and exit of a position — the full cycle of a single trade
8%
Completing both the entry and exit of a position — but only applies to day trades
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US02Y Now Tests the War Trendline as CPI and PPI Cool
US02Y is testing the ascending trendline from the war-start low in late February. That line has defined the entire uptrend and today is its most serious test. A close below means rate odds are changing...
The case for lower yields is building. NFP rolled to 57,000, CPI fell 0.4% Tuesday, and PPI fell -0.3% today, a second straight cooling print, both energy-led. July hike odds have collapsed to ~12%, and the two-year, which tracks Fed expectations, softens with them.
Oil is the missing piece and it cuts the other way. June's lower crude produced this disinflation directly. Brent is back above 85 with the blockade live. Sticky oil walks back the progress and forces the Fed toward hikes.
Warsh refused to call it mission accomplished, citing years of above-target core PCE. A hawkish anchor under yields. The trendline is the tell: below it, the market trusts the cooling; above, oil wins. PCE decides July 30.
read the full article here.
— Alan
US02Y is testing the ascending trendline from the war-start low in late February. That line has defined the entire uptrend and today is its most serious test. A close below means rate odds are changing...
The case for lower yields is building. NFP rolled to 57,000, CPI fell 0.4% Tuesday, and PPI fell -0.3% today, a second straight cooling print, both energy-led. July hike odds have collapsed to ~12%, and the two-year, which tracks Fed expectations, softens with them.
Oil is the missing piece and it cuts the other way. June's lower crude produced this disinflation directly. Brent is back above 85 with the blockade live. Sticky oil walks back the progress and forces the Fed toward hikes.
Warsh refused to call it mission accomplished, citing years of above-target core PCE. A hawkish anchor under yields. The trendline is the tell: below it, the market trusts the cooling; above, oil wins. PCE decides July 30.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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GBP/USD Analysis: USD Is Getting Pounded! (Pun Intended)
GBPUSD is RIPPING to its highest since late May and clearing the 200 MA, up 1.1% on the day. Price now presses against the 1.360 resistance that rejected the February and May advances.
Three drivers stack the same way. UK political risk is easing: Burnham becomes PM July 20, and reports that fiscally disciplined Mahmood, not the expansionary Miliband, takes the Treasury reassured markets. Gilts absolutely loved that and rallied.
The rate story reinforces it. Oil at one-month highs flipped BoE pricing from two cuts this year to a fully priced November hike, another by April 2027. Higher for longer supports sterling.
Add a softer dollar from cooling CPI and PPI and cable moves in a straight line. The test is 1.355 to 1.360. Reclaim it and structure turns. Reject, and this is a strong move into major supply that needs a catalyst to break. ING: high UK rates keep sterling supported.
read the full article here.
— Alan
GBPUSD is RIPPING to its highest since late May and clearing the 200 MA, up 1.1% on the day. Price now presses against the 1.360 resistance that rejected the February and May advances.
Three drivers stack the same way. UK political risk is easing: Burnham becomes PM July 20, and reports that fiscally disciplined Mahmood, not the expansionary Miliband, takes the Treasury reassured markets. Gilts absolutely loved that and rallied.
The rate story reinforces it. Oil at one-month highs flipped BoE pricing from two cuts this year to a fully priced November hike, another by April 2027. Higher for longer supports sterling.
Add a softer dollar from cooling CPI and PPI and cable moves in a straight line. The test is 1.355 to 1.360. Reclaim it and structure turns. Reject, and this is a strong move into major supply that needs a catalyst to break. ING: high UK rates keep sterling supported.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Take advantage of our Summer Sale to save up to $659 on the EdgeFinder! Use the options below to save on your copy:
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was:
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Both plans provide access to the complete EdgeFinder toolset:
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❤12
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A positive carry trade cannot lose money as long as the interest rate differential remains unchanged.
A positive carry trade cannot lose money as long as the interest rate differential remains unchanged.
Anonymous Quiz
54%
True
46%
False
👍12❤2
USDCAD Now Breaks to 1.40 as Both Legs Turn Bearish
USDCADis extending the breakdown, price now gets closer to the 1.395 support I flagged Tuesday, the demand zone stacked over the rising 200-day below.
The BoC held at 2.25% for a sixth meeting and lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%. Macklem said hikes stay on the table if oil stays elevated and spills into broader prices. The loonie firmed, though the bank dropped its reference to consecutive hikes, so the tone is upbeat, not aggressively hawkish.
The dollar does the heavier lifting. Cool CPI and soft PPI killed the July hike and pulled DXY lower. Both legs push USDCAD down together, the alignment that broke the shelf.
This is the level I said to wait for, now in range and backed by the 200-day. The wind is behind the move, so a long earns size only once oil stalls. Macklem pegged his forecast to oil at 70 to 75, and Brent is above 85. Canada CPI July 20.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCADis extending the breakdown, price now gets closer to the 1.395 support I flagged Tuesday, the demand zone stacked over the rising 200-day below.
The BoC held at 2.25% for a sixth meeting and lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%. Macklem said hikes stay on the table if oil stays elevated and spills into broader prices. The loonie firmed, though the bank dropped its reference to consecutive hikes, so the tone is upbeat, not aggressively hawkish.
The dollar does the heavier lifting. Cool CPI and soft PPI killed the July hike and pulled DXY lower. Both legs push USDCAD down together, the alignment that broke the shelf.
This is the level I said to wait for, now in range and backed by the 200-day. The wind is behind the move, so a long earns size only once oil stalls. Macklem pegged his forecast to oil at 70 to 75, and Brent is above 85. Canada CPI July 20.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍9❤6
Nasdaq Now Coils In a Flag Pattern
NAS is forming a wedge. Since the June high near 30,800, price has carved lower highs against a rising base off the 28,000 to 28,400 demand zone. The 200-day sits far below at 26,000, the deeper support if this breaks.
In 20 of the last 26 sessions the index moved 1% or more. That clustering has appeared only four times since 2000: the dotcom top, 2008, 2020, and 2022. BTIG flags the SOX at 15 moves of 3% in 30 days, last seen in 2000.
Roughly 10 names, led by chips, drove the 20% first-half rally, and the SOX is now 15% off its highs. TSM beat with 77% growth and still fell 4%. Narrow leadership rolling over is a late-cycle tell.
The triangle resolves the compression. A break below 28,000 with chips leading confirms distribution, and opens 26,000. Reclaiming the June highs keeps the AI trade alive. Watch the SOX. Earnings and oil are the catalysts.
read the full article here.
— Alan
NAS is forming a wedge. Since the June high near 30,800, price has carved lower highs against a rising base off the 28,000 to 28,400 demand zone. The 200-day sits far below at 26,000, the deeper support if this breaks.
In 20 of the last 26 sessions the index moved 1% or more. That clustering has appeared only four times since 2000: the dotcom top, 2008, 2020, and 2022. BTIG flags the SOX at 15 moves of 3% in 30 days, last seen in 2000.
Roughly 10 names, led by chips, drove the 20% first-half rally, and the SOX is now 15% off its highs. TSM beat with 77% growth and still fell 4%. Narrow leadership rolling over is a late-cycle tell.
The triangle resolves the compression. A break below 28,000 with chips leading confirms distribution, and opens 26,000. Reclaiming the June highs keeps the AI trade alive. Watch the SOX. Earnings and oil are the catalysts.
read the full article here.
— Alan
🔥16❤8👏3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Holding EUR/USD long and GBP/USD long at the same time means:
Holding EUR/USD long and GBP/USD long at the same time means:
Anonymous Quiz
14%
You're doubling directional risk — but hedged only if one position is long and the other is short
10%
You're doubling directional risk — though this only applies when both pairs are trending not ranging
70%
You're doubling directional risk — both pairs share USD exposure and often move together against it
5%
You're doubling directional risk — but only if both trades are the same position size
❤17🔥5👍1
USOIL Analysis: Now The Pivotal 61.8 Fib-Level Test
USOIL is pulling back after a one-directional flush that found support at the 68 handle. Price is now retracing into Fib resistance: the 0.382 at 78.54, the 0.5 at 82.09, and the decisive 0.618 at 85.65. That 85 to 86 zone overlaps the old shelf that was support when the war was in full effect, making it confluence resistance.
June's lower crude produced the cool CPI and PPI this week. A rejection at the 0.618 reaffirms that disinflation, softens the dollar, and pulls US rate expectations lower.
A reclaim of 85 to 86 flips it. Sustained crude there threatens to walk back the inflation progress and reprice Fed tightening. Duration decides, not the spike.
For now the fundamentals point up. The blockade is live, Hormuz transits fell to two-month lows at seven vessels, and Iran has told the Houthis to ready Bab el-Mandeb. Oil has to test 85.65. Everything downstream, dollar and rates, keys off that reaction.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USOIL is pulling back after a one-directional flush that found support at the 68 handle. Price is now retracing into Fib resistance: the 0.382 at 78.54, the 0.5 at 82.09, and the decisive 0.618 at 85.65. That 85 to 86 zone overlaps the old shelf that was support when the war was in full effect, making it confluence resistance.
June's lower crude produced the cool CPI and PPI this week. A rejection at the 0.618 reaffirms that disinflation, softens the dollar, and pulls US rate expectations lower.
A reclaim of 85 to 86 flips it. Sustained crude there threatens to walk back the inflation progress and reprice Fed tightening. Duration decides, not the spike.
For now the fundamentals point up. The blockade is live, Hormuz transits fell to two-month lows at seven vessels, and Iran has told the Houthis to ready Bab el-Mandeb. Oil has to test 85.65. Everything downstream, dollar and rates, keys off that reaction.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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GBPUSD Now Pulls Back to a Buyable Fib Zone
GBPUSD is pulling back after Wednesday's rip stalled at the 1.360 resistance that has capped the pair all year. Price is now retracing into the Fib zone off that leg: the 0.382 at 1.33979, the 0.5 at 1.33485, and the 0.618 at 1.32991. The 1.340 area, where the MA and the 0.382 converge, is first support.
The three-driver stack holds. UK political risk eased as centrist Mahmood is tipped for Chancellor, gilts rallied, and UK GDP beat at 0.7% over three months. Oil at one-month highs keeps the BoE hawkish, a November hike fully priced off a 3.75% base. A softer dollar completes it.
But the caveat is real. ING's Pesole calls the pound over-valued at 13-month highs versus the euro and the 35bps of BoE hikes too high. If gilt yields slip, the rate leg deflates.
Two paths. A shallow hold at 1.340 or 1.335 resumes the trend toward 1.360. A deeper flush to the 0.618 near 1.330 is the better-asymmetry long.
read the full article here.
— Alan
GBPUSD is pulling back after Wednesday's rip stalled at the 1.360 resistance that has capped the pair all year. Price is now retracing into the Fib zone off that leg: the 0.382 at 1.33979, the 0.5 at 1.33485, and the 0.618 at 1.32991. The 1.340 area, where the MA and the 0.382 converge, is first support.
The three-driver stack holds. UK political risk eased as centrist Mahmood is tipped for Chancellor, gilts rallied, and UK GDP beat at 0.7% over three months. Oil at one-month highs keeps the BoE hawkish, a November hike fully priced off a 3.75% base. A softer dollar completes it.
But the caveat is real. ING's Pesole calls the pound over-valued at 13-month highs versus the euro and the 35bps of BoE hikes too high. If gilt yields slip, the rate leg deflates.
Two paths. A shallow hold at 1.340 or 1.335 resumes the trend toward 1.360. A deeper flush to the 0.618 near 1.330 is the better-asymmetry long.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
"Order flow" refers to:
"Order flow" refers to:
Anonymous Quiz
8%
The real-time stream of buy and sell orders — order flow data is only available to retail traders
5%
The real-time stream of buy and sell orders — has no connection to short-term price movement
81%
The real-time stream of buy and sell orders — revealing where actual participation is occurring
6%
The real-time stream of buy and sell orders — but order flow only matters on the daily timeframe
❤24🔥2🫡2
DXY Now Defends Crucial Support as Hike Odds Firm
DXY trades near 101.00, having defended the 100.5 demand zone where it converged with the trendline off the May lows.
Rate odds are repricing hawkish. FedWatch shows only a 14.4% chance of a July hike, but September sits near 65%, with the 375 to 400 band the likeliest outcome there. The front end prices a Fed that pauses now and moves later, and the dollar tracks it.
The Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a second front and widening the energy threat beyond the Gulf. Oil spiked above 90 early, then pared to 82.50 WTI as mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire to Tehran. Escalation and diplomacy in one session.
Fed officials are in blackout into next week. Hold 100.45 and the uptrend stays intact toward 101.5. Lose it with oil cooling on a real ceasefire and the bear case returns. Oil is still the pivot.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY trades near 101.00, having defended the 100.5 demand zone where it converged with the trendline off the May lows.
Rate odds are repricing hawkish. FedWatch shows only a 14.4% chance of a July hike, but September sits near 65%, with the 375 to 400 band the likeliest outcome there. The front end prices a Fed that pauses now and moves later, and the dollar tracks it.
The Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a second front and widening the energy threat beyond the Gulf. Oil spiked above 90 early, then pared to 82.50 WTI as mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire to Tehran. Escalation and diplomacy in one session.
Fed officials are in blackout into next week. Hold 100.45 and the uptrend stays intact toward 101.5. Lose it with oil cooling on a real ceasefire and the bear case returns. Oil is still the pivot.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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