The End of Trump.
How He Bogged Down Amid His Failures

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Trump may have won just about every battle against Iran, but three months after attacking the Islamic Republic he now faces a bigger question: Is he losing the war?

With Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, its resistance to nuclear concessions and its theocratic government largely intact, doubts are growing that Trump can translate the U.S. military’s tactical successes into an outcome he can frame convincingly as a geopolitical ​win.

His repeated claims of complete victory ring hollow, some analysts say, as the two sides teeter between uncertain diplomacy and his on-again-off-again threats to resume strikes, which would be sure to draw Iranian retaliation across the region.

Trump is now at risk of seeing the U.S. ‌and its Gulf Arab allies emerge from the conflict worse off while Iran, though battered militarily and economically, could end up with greater leverage, having shown it can throttle one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The crisis is not yet over, and some experts leave open the possibility Trump might still find a face-saving way out if negotiations break in his favor.

“We’re three months in, and it’s looking like a war that was designed to be a short-term romp for Trump is turning into a long-term strategic failure,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations.

For Trump, that matters, especially given his famous sensitivity to being perceived as a loser, an insult he ​has often lobbed at opponents.

In the Iran crisis, he finds himself commander-in-chief of the world’s mightiest military pitted against a second-tier power seemingly convinced it has the upper hand.

And this predicament could make Trump, who has yet to define a clear endgame, more likely to resist any compromise ​that looks like a retreat from his maximalist positions or a repetition of the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran that he scrapped in his first term, analysts say.

Trump campaigned for a second term promising no unnecessary military interventions but has brought the U.S. into an entanglement that could do lasting damage to his foreign policy record and credibility ​abroad.

The continuing standoff comes as he faces domestic pressure over high U.S. gasoline prices and low approval ratings after he embarked on the unpopular war ahead of November’s midterm elections. His Republican Party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.

As a result, more than six weeks into a ceasefire, some analysts believe Trump faces a ​stark choice: to accept a potentially flawed deal as an off-ramp or escalate militarily and risk an even longer crisis.

#trump #iran #war #gulf #end

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Among his options if diplomacy collapses, they say, would be to launch a round of sharp but limited strikes, frame it as a final victory and move on.

Another possibility, analysts say, is that Trump could attempt to shift focus to Cuba, as he has suggested, in hopes of changing the subject and trying to score a potentially easier win.

If so, he might end up misjudging the challenges posed by Havana, much as some Trump aides privately acknowledge that he mistakenly thought the Iran operation would resemble the January 3 raid that captured Venezuela's president and led to his replacement.

Alexander ​Gray, a former senior adviser in Trump’s first term and now chief executive officer of the American Global Strategies consultancy, rejected the notion that the president's Iran campaign was on the ropes.

He said that the heavy blow to Iranian military capabilities was in itself a “strategic success,” that the war had drawn Gulf states closer ​to the U.S. and away from China, and that the fate of Iran’s nuclear program was still to be determined.

There are signs, however, of Trump's frustration with his inability to control the narrative. He has torn into his critics and accused the news media of “treason.”

Jonathan Panikoff, a ​former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said that ⁠while Iran has taken devastating hits, its rulers consider it a success simply to have survived the U.S. assault and learned how much control they can exert over Gulf shipping.

“What they discovered is they can exercise that leverage and with few consequences for them," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank, adding that Iran appeared confident it could tolerate more economic pain than Trump and outlast him.

Trump’s main stated war aim – Iran’s denuclearization – also remains unfulfilled, and Tehran has shown little ​willingness to significantly rein in its program.

A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to remain buried following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes last June and could be recovered and further processed to bomb grade. Iran says it wants ​the U.S. to recognize its right to enrich ⁠uranium for what it says are peaceful purposes.

Some analysts have suggested that the war could make Iran more, not less, likely to ramp up efforts to develop a nuclear weapon to shield itself like nuclear-armed North Korea.
Another of Trump’s declared goals – forcing Iran to halt support for armed proxy groups – also remains unmet.

Adding to Trump’s challenges, he is now dealing with new Iranian leaders considered even more hardline than their slain predecessors. Post-war, they are widely expected still to have enough remaining missiles and drones to pose a continued danger to their neighbors.

He is ⁠also facing fallout with ​further erosion of relations with traditional European allies, which have mostly refused his calls for assistance in a war they were not consulted about.

China and Russia, meanwhile, have drawn lessons about the ​U.S. military’s shortcomings against asymmetric Iranian tactics and how some of its weapons supplies have become depleted, analysts said.

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, has argued that the outcome will be even more of a decisive setback to U.S. standing than its humiliating withdrawals from much longer, bloodier conflicts in Vietnam and Afghanistan because those countries “were far from the main theaters of ​global competition.”

#trump #iran #war #gulf #end

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📰 Hormuz on Layaway: Trump Wants Cheap Gas, Iran Wants a Cover Charge

The Iran war is technically on pause, but everyone is acting like it’s a pricing negotiation, not a ceasefire. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir lands in Tehran as the favorite go‑between, shuttling between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf, while Gulf monarchies beg Trump not to hit “resume” on the airstrikes that sent oil over $100 and voters into full rage at the pump.

The six‑week truce hasn’t brought real peace, just a holding pattern where Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz half‑choked, the US keeps a port blockade in place, and both sides trade proposals through Pakistan.

Trump goes to rallies promising the war will be over “soon” and that oil prices will “tumble as soon as I finish up with Iran,” while his own officials admit only “slight progress” and outlets like Axios and CBS leak that a new round of strikes is sitting ready on the shelf.

Underneath the spin, there are two real fights: enriched uranium and the tollbooth called Hormuz.

Washington wants at least a decade‑long cap on enrichment and language that looks like a 2.0 version of the Obama nuclear deal; Tehran publicly rejects any long freeze, insists on its “rights,” and flirts with the idea of a permanent Iranian‑Omani “fees for passage” system through the strait that Trump brands unacceptable.

Every time Iran announces that “25 ships crossed Hormuz in the last day with permission,” it isn’t transparency — it’s advertising leverage.

So the ceasefire has become a kind of global hostage note. Gulf states and Europe are terrified of another spike. India is rationing its outrage to match its diesel prices.

The ECB quietly admits inflation risks rise every day the war drags on without a real deal. Eurasia Group’s line — a deal is “more likely than escalation, but only by a narrow margin,” and at best would extend the ceasefire another 30 days — sounds less like diplomacy and more like rolling over a bad loan.

Everyone wants peace in the headline and leverage in the fine print. Trump wants to walk away claiming victory and cheaper gas. Iran wants written respect for its nuclear “rights” and de facto recognition that it can throttle the world’s energy lifeline. Pakistan wants to turn mediation into a strategic asset.

Nobody wants to pay the full price of an actual settlement.

Until that changes, Hormuz isn’t a shipping lane. It’s a meter, running 24/7, clocking the cost of this “almost peace” for the rest of the planet.

#Iran #US #Trump #Hormuz #Pakistan #oil #ceasefire #war #fakePeace #geopolitics

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📰 “Welcome to Israel”: Beatings, Tasers and a Minister on Camera

The Global Sumud Flotilla set out to break the Gaza blockade with 50 boats and a very 2010 idea of “peace activism.” It ended in a very 2026 reality show: beatings in containers, tasers in the ribs, dogs, and a far‑right minister filming himself over the bodies.

Activists and journalists describe a conveyor belt of punishment once Israeli forces intercepted them in international waters and dragged them toward Ashdod. Knees on rough decks, blindfolds tightened again and again, wrists zip‑tied to metal so low you travel half‑curled over concrete.

A narrow hatch into a detention ship where, they say, everyone passed through the same “welcome tunnel”: six or seven men waiting in a container to kick, punch and tase you from one door to the other. No politics, no nuance — just a production line of “you will remember this.”

The quotes are almost too on‑the‑nose. “We were dragged by our hair.” “Dogs were released on us.” “Welcome to Israel,” followed by punches to the face. An Italian journalist says he was strip‑searched, his glasses and wallet tossed.

A Greek activist describes tasers, insults, and a minister entering the room surrounded by guards aiming rifles and laser sights at a handcuffed man from Greece who says he came with humanitarian aid. The question from the minister: “Are you a friend of Hamas?”

That minister, of course, is Itamar Ben‑Gvir — the same national security chief who then posted triumphant clips of detainees on the floor, zip‑tied and helpless, like props in his personal sovereignty trailer. Foreign capitals summoned Israeli ambassadors; Israel officially denied any abuse and called the allegations “entirely baseless.”

On one side: bruises, black eyes, numb hands, emptied wallets. On the other: a press release and a man who built his career on turning other people’s restraint into a weakness to be mocked.

For Trump’s “Board of Peace” narrative, this is the worst possible split screen. On paper Gaza gets roadmaps and technocrats; in practice, prisoners in containers and a minister doing humiliation content for his base. Israel can say “false accusations” all it wants.

The problem isn’t just what happened in that ship. The problem is that the state’s own security chief chose to turn the alleged cruelty into a set piece — and hit publish.

Who exactly is supposed to believe in “stability” after that: the activists who went home in gray sweatsuits, or the audiences who just learned what “Welcome to Israel” looks like when the cameras aren’t from the tourism ministry?

#Israel #Gaza #BenGvir #SumudFlotilla #humanrights #war #fakePeace

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#fukuyama #xijinping #america #democracy #trump

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Vance's Clash With Kushner. He May Withdraw From the Presidential Race in 2028


Vance is thinking over dropping out of the 2028 presidential race after Gabbard resigned as Director of National Intelligence.

According to sources, Gabbard has been one of Vance's few allies “in containing US President Donald Trump's military ambitions“. The vice president's “soft foreign policy“ has set him on a path to confrontation with Trump, the sources said.

With Vance's influence waning, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has become the dominant foreign policy voice in the US leader's inner circle.

“Rubio has more power than Vance. The president listens to him. Vance doesn't fit the big picture and has for a long time“ (quote a White House source).

It is reported that Vance's withdrawal from the upcoming elections could be a tactical move and would allow him to avoid “taking responsibility for everything that has happened over the last few years“.

The newspaper notes that to win the 2032 and 2036 elections, Vance will have to maintain his political influence for nearly a decade.

On August 5, 2025, Trump named Vance as his likely successor in the November 2028 presidential election. At the same time, the American leader practically made it clear that he sees Rubio as Vance's vice presidential candidate, that is, his vice presidential candidate.

Another source close to the White House said that the real reason could be different: Vance “has a slow but long-standing conflict with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who has taken an openly pro-Israeli position, Vance, on the contrary, is often going on a rampage against Israel in the situation room,” said the source.

In addition, Vance advised Trump “not to kill Ayatollah Khamenei, with whom his wife, Usha, had good relations. ”

#rubio #vance #gabbard #white #house

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📰 Peace, Schrödinger‑Style: Trump and Iran Both Claim a Deal, Neither Shows the Paper

Trump says the Iran peace deal is “largely negotiated.” Tehran says it signed a memorandum. Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif is already offering to host the “next round.” And yet nobody will publish the text, and the two sides can’t even agree on what they just agreed to.

According to U.S. officials talking off the record, the framework includes an Iranian commitment to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium — the core justification Trump used for starting the war — with the mechanics pushed to a later round of talks.

Iranian officials, also anonymous, tell the same paper that the memo says nothing about the nuclear program beyond a vague promise to talk about it within 30–60 days. Both positions can’t be true. In classic Middle East fashion, they may both be “true” in different capitals until someone is forced to choose.

On the public stage, each side is busy selling its own version of victory. Trump promises a reopened Strait of Hormuz and an end to the blockade that helped blow up oil prices and his approval ratings at home. Iranian officials brief that Hormuz will reopen without tolls, that the U.S. naval blockade will be lifted, that fighting will stop “on all fronts” — including between Israel and Hezbollah — and that $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets will be released.

One president wants to look like he tamed the strait; the other wants to look like he got paid to reopen it.

Then there is Lebanon, forever the collateral clause in everyone else’s deal. Hezbollah joined the war in March “in solidarity” with Tehran and has kept trading fire with Israel despite a U.S.‑brokered ceasefire.

Now three senior Iranian officials are telling reporters that the emerging agreement would halt the fighting there as well. Israel signals the opposite: Netanyahu tells Trump he won’t give up Israel’s “freedom to act” against threats in Lebanon, even as his army sits six miles deep on the other side of the border.

If the ceasefire holds, Hezbollah will sell it as proof that only Iran can force the U.S. to rein Israel in. If it doesn’t, the Lebanese get yet another lesson in what it means when your sovereignty is negotiable line‑item in somebody else’s memorandum.

What’s consistent across all these contradictions is the power geometry. The real talks are between Washington and Tehran, with Pakistan and the Gulf as facilitators. Israel, which helped start the war, is finding out about key terms from the news. Lebanon — bombed, shelled, displaced — waits to see how outside powers redraw its reality this time.

Everyone invokes “ending the war.” Almost no one addresses the hard parts: what actually happens to Iran’s uranium, to Hezbollah’s arsenal, to Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, to Hormuz the next time a president somewhere needs a ratings boost.

So yes, there is “significant progress.” There is also no text, no shared narrative, and no answer to the core question: is this an off‑ramp, or just another temporary pause dressed up as peace so Trump, Tehran, and their friends can tell their own publics they didn’t blink first?

#Iran #US #Trump #Hormuz #Hezbollah #Lebanon #ceasefire #nuclear #war #fakePeace #geopolitics

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📰 Live From the Security State: One Dead Outside the White House, One Billion-Dollar Ballroom Back in the Pitch Deck

A 21‑year‑old man walked up to the edge of the White House complex, pulled a gun from his bag and opened fire on Secret Service officers. He’s now dead. A bystander is wounded. The president is safe, untouched, inside.

Nasire Best was not an organized assassin, not a cell leader, not a mastermind. According to court records, his last big attempt to breach the perimeter was in 2025, when he walked into a restricted exit lane, told agents he was Jesus Christ, and asked to be arrested.

Law enforcement officials describe him as emotionally disturbed and already “known” to them. This weekend he became something else: the latest data point in a string of gunfire incidents orbiting Trump’s physical presence — from Butler, Pennsylvania, to the Washington Hilton, to this intersection at 17th and Pennsylvania.

And Trump knows exactly how to use that. In his Truth Social post after the shooting, he thanks the Secret Service, references the recent gunfire outside the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, and pivots straight to his favorite capital‑P Project: a “most safe and secure space of its kind ever built in Washington, D.C.”

The East Wing ballroom and bunker complex that he and his allies swear is about security, and his critics note just happens to combine donor hospitality, prestige architecture and a fresh round of government money directed at a building he controls.

The choreography is grimly consistent. Shots ring out; reporters are told to sprint to the briefing room; FBI, National Guard and D.C. police flood the streets around a presidency that already operates under permanent lockdown theater.

Within hours, the incident is folded into a narrative where rising political violence proves not that the system is sick, but that Trump is uniquely important — important enough to justify a new fortress, looser oversight, broader “security perimeters,” more power for the protective bubble and less access for everyone else.

So you get a White House that increasingly treats public space as a threat vector, the press as a liability to be herded and restricted, and every deranged gunman as Exhibit A in the argument for turning the president’s working environment into a privatized stronghold.

It’s not that the danger isn’t real; the bullets are very real. It’s what gets built on top of that danger — politically, architecturally, financially — that should worry anyone who still thinks “security” and “democracy” are supposed to be in tension, not in merger talks.

When every shot near the White House becomes another brick in the case for Trump’s billion‑dollar safe room, you have to ask: are we protecting a presidency, or entrenching a throne?

#Trump #WhiteHouse #SecretService #security #ballroom #USpolitics #violence #fakeDemocracy

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📰 Hormuz for Hostages: Trump Sells “Peace,” Iran Sells Leverage

Trump says the Iran deal is “largely negotiated.” Tehran says there are still “one or two clauses” in dispute. Pakistan waves a memorandum in the air, the Gulf begs Washington not to blow it up, and the Strait of Hormuz stays half‑choked while everyone calls this progress.

According to the emerging outline, the deal is peace on installments. First, formally end the three‑month war and lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. Then reopen Hormuz “completely, without tolls,” once Washington has actually moved its ships.

Only after that comes a 30‑day (extendable) window to talk about the hard part: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which the U.S. says Tehran has implicitly agreed to give up later, and Iran insists is only scheduled for “future discussions.”

In other words, the nuclear core of the crisis gets kicked down the road while everyone rushes to fix pump prices.

Markets heard what they needed: a fragile ceasefire might get cemented, the strait might reopen, and Brent over 100 dollars might eventually drift down — just not anytime soon.

Even the head of Abu Dhabi’s oil company is saying out loud that full flows through Hormuz won’t be back before 2027, even if the war ends now.

The memorandum, as described, would also waive some sanctions on Iranian oil, unlock frozen Iranian funds, and include mutual no‑attack clauses where the U.S. and its allies promise not to hit Iran or its partners, and Iran promises not to launch preemptive strikes on them.

Iranian outlets brief that any deal will stop the fighting on all fronts, including Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Israeli officials leak the opposite: Netanyahu has told Trump Israel will maintain “freedom of action” in Lebanon and that Trump agreed.

Benny Gantz warns that accepting a Lebanon ceasefire as part of the package would be a strategic mistake. If the guns fall quiet, Hezbollah will sell it as proof that only Iran can force the U.S. to rein Israel in. If they don’t, Lebanon will discover — again — that its fate was just a bargaining chip in someone else’s accord.

Trump’s incentives are naked. The war has hammered his approval ratings via gas prices; he’s skipping his own son’s wedding to sit in the White House and talk about Iran on the phone with Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Jordanian, Egyptian, Turkish and Pakistani leaders who all want him to take the deal.

He needs a headline that says “war over, strait open, prices down” more than he needs a coherent long‑term strategy. Iran’s incentives are just as clear. Its negotiators want sanctions relief, unblocked shipping, guarantees against new U.S. attacks, and recognition that Tehran can both rebuild its forces and still dictate conditions around Hormuz — all without formally surrendering its enrichment program.

So the memorandum delivers everyone something and no one everything. Trump gets to claim he ended a crisis he started, with an American president once again “holding all the cards.”

Iran gets money, access, a path to reopening the strait on its own timetable, and a nuclear file that lives to fight another day. The Gulf gets a shot at slightly cheaper stability.

Pakistan gets to pose as indispensable mediator. The rest of the world gets the privilege of paying for months, if not years, of partial flows and permanent risk.

Call it what you like — framework, memorandum, “largely negotiated deal.” Until there’s a clear, enforceable decision on uranium, on Hormuz, and on whether Israel’s wars are actually part of the bargain, this isn’t peace. It’s a ceasefire with branding.

#Iran #US #Trump #Hormuz #Pakistan #oil #nuclear #Lebanon #Hezbollah #war #fakePeace

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📰 “Good News” in Hormuz: Trump Rents Peace by the Month

Marco Rubio is out promising “some good news” on Hormuz. Translation: Washington is praying for a 60‑day ceasefire extension, a partially reopened strait, and enough time to pretend this is strategy, not panic.

Bloomberg’s version is blunt. The outline on the table is an interim fix: extend the fragile truce, reopen the Strait of Hormuz “completely, without tolls,” let Iran sell more oil, and push the nuclear file and enrichment fight into the next round of talks.

In exchange, the U.S. would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, waive some oil and petrochemical sanctions and unlock at least part of Tehran’s frozen assets — the same leverage Trump spent three months bombing to create.

Tehran plays the familiar double game. Iranian agencies concede “some progress” but say one or two provisions remain disputed, dismiss Trump’s boasting as “far from reality,” and flatly reject demands to give up uranium and halt enrichment, while insisting it has no intention of building a bomb.

At the same time, Iran floats ideas of “levies” on ships and demands a “significant portion” of its frozen funds back, signalling that it views Hormuz as a permanent revenue and pressure tool, not just a wartime weapon.

In the background, everyone else is desperate. The UAE has joined Saudi Arabia and Qatar in begging Trump not to restart the war. Oil is still north of $100, governments from Delhi to Berlin are paying the political price for a conflict they didn’t start, and Trump is staring at midterms with high fuel bills and sliding approval ratings.

His own hawks want him to keep bombing until Iran surrenders on nukes, proxies and missiles. His pollsters want him to sign anything that lowers gas prices before November.

So Rubio sells an “open straits without tolls” future and hints that the same memorandum will also “address some of the key things that underpin Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.” Iran insists its right to enrich is non‑negotiable, and that any change in navigation at Hormuz stays conditional on U.S. compliance and cash. Israel, meanwhile, worries the same deal might quietly wrap its Lebanon war into an Iran package it doesn’t fully control.

Call it what it is: not an end to the war, but a 60‑day rental on slightly cheaper chaos. Hormuz may reopen; sanctions may loosen; statements about nukes will be carefully worded. The basic arrangement stays the same — Iran keeps the strait as a pressure valve, the U.S. keeps sanctions as a choke chain, the Gulf keeps paying the insurance premiums, and the rest of the world keeps praying that “some good news” isn’t just another way to say “see you at the next crisis.”

#Iran #US #Trump #Rubio #Hormuz #oil #sanctions #nuclear #war #fakePeace

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Trump Down: A Possible Revenge for Stephen Colbert 📉🎤

The man who opened fire near the White House Saturday evening before being killed in a shootout with the Secret Service has been identified as Nasire Best, 21, according to a law enforcement official speaking with the Associated Press 🚨.

Investigators said Best approached agents in the area of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue, Northwest, just after 6 p.m. He pulled a gun from his bag and began firing. Officers returned fire, hitting Best. He was taken to the hospital, where he later died 🏥.

Saturday's shooting was not Best's first encounter with Secret Service near the White House 🏛.

Best lived in the Prince George’s County suburb of Glenarden with his family, according to virtual records reported by The Baltimore Sun 📰.

Court records show that the 21-year-old was arrested in July 2025 after attempting to enter a different white house checkpoint. During that encounter, investigators said Best claimed he was Jesus Christ and said he wanted to be arrested ✝️.

An initial hearing was held and a “Pretrial Stay Away Order” was issued, typically a measure ordering a defendant not to go near a person or area before a trial. A bench warrant was issued in August after a notice of “noncompliance” against Best, who did not appear for a subsequent hearing ⚖️.

That was not the only occasion Best was encountered near the White House, according to a report from CNN 📺.

Records show Best was “known to the Secret Service” for “walking around the White House complex inquiring how to gain access at various entry points,” the report reads. He was involuntarily committed on June 26, 2025, for “obstructing vehicle entry” to part of the White House complex, records show 🚫.

CNN found social media belonging to Best, that appeared to threaten violence against Trump and another post where he wrote, “I hate him, I'm the son of God.”

Trump was inside the White House at the time of the shooting, but was not hurt 🛡.

A police source revealed some details: the shooter, according to his own testimony (revealed by his girlfriend), dared to do so after Trump posted a mocking video of his favorite host, Stephen Colbert, in which Trump throws Colbert in a garbage container 🗑.

#trump #shooter #colbert #white #house

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📰 Bench vs. Border State: How Judges Are Dismantling Trump’s ICE Machine

Trump tried to turn the entire civil immigration system into a giant holding pen. The courts, including a lot of his own judges, are quietly sawing through the bars.

Across the country, hundreds of federal judges have now issued nearly 10,800 rulings against the administration’s mandatory‑detention policy, which says that millions of people who’ve lived in the U.S. for years without incident can be locked up without bond, just because ICE decided they’re “priority” cases.

The through‑line in these decisions is brutally simple: you don’t get to erase due process because you’ve rebranded everyone as a permanent suspect.

Judge Clay Land in Georgia is the poster child of this revolt. A George W. Bush appointee, not some left‑wing crusader, he has ruled against the policy more than 370 times, repeatedly ordering bond hearings for people ICE wanted to vanish into a no‑bond limbo.

In Michigan’s Western District, a mixed group of Bush, Trump and Biden appointees has collectively shredded mandatory detention in more than 650 cases.

Texas judge Kathleen Cardone has done it over 200 times, helping force mass releases even after a conservative appeals court tried to bless ICE’s approach.

Even inside Trump’s own judicial farm team, there’s a split screen. First‑term Trump appointees, when not shackled by higher courts, have rejected the policy by about 4‑to‑1.

Second‑term loyalists mostly marched the other way, with nine out of ten siding with ICE until appellate rulings in the 6th and 11th Circuits made that stance legally impossible.

Judge Kyle Dudek in Florida is the awkward middle figure: sometimes backing ICE, sometimes blocking it, now effectively overruled from above.

On the other side, you have the “with a heavy heart, we cage him” opinions.

Some Trump‑appointed judges who uphold the policy wrap their rulings in visible discomfort: calling it a “sorrowful conclusion,” admitting the petitioner looks like a “hardworking, otherwise law‑abiding individual,” worrying about severe medical needs — and then signing off on detention anyway because they read the statute and binding precedent as giving them no choice.

Their message: the cruelty is real, but blame Congress and the appeals courts, not the trial judge’s conscience.

And then there’s Minnesota’s Operation Metro Surge, the moment the whole machine tripped over its own speed. ICE flooded the state, two people ended up dead, and federal judges went from handling a handful of detention cases a week to almost 60.

Biden‑appointed Judge Jeffrey Bryan alone ruled against ICE in all 62 of his cases. The docket exploded with emergency filings as detainees were shuffled off to Texas and New Mexico.

Judges started openly dressing down government lawyers for missed deadlines, blown orders and systemic violations of basic rights.

Put together, these five “types” of judges tell one story: Trump tried to hard‑code mass detention into the system, and the system is spitting it back out case by case. Appeals courts are boxing in his most aggressive appointees.

Trial judges from Bush to Biden are saying that if you want to run a permanent domestic Guantánamo for people with no criminal record and decades in the country, you need more than a memo and a press conference.

For an administration that loves to yell about “law and order,” there’s an awkward twist: on immigration detention, it’s the judges quoting the law — and Trump’s people arguing that due process is optional.

#Trump #ICE #immigration #courts #detention #ruleOfLaw #fakeDemocracy

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Why Trump Will Not Launch a Full-Scale War in Iran

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First and foremost, this is a war of choice. The US had other policy options available. Diplomacy appeared to hold promise as a means to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Increased economic pressure had the potential over time to precipitate regime change.

Moreover, this is a preventive war, not a preemptive one. Iran posed no imminent threat to vital US interests. Iran was not on the verge of becoming a nuclear weapons state or using what weapons it did have against the US. At most, the threat posed by Iran was a gathering one.

This distinction is important. A world in which countries believed they have the right to undertake preventive strikes against those they judge to be threats would be a world of frequent conflict. That is why such actions have no standing under international law.

Trump has chosen an objective – regime change – that is political rather than military. But while military force can destroy and kill, on its own, it cannot bring about regime change, which requires the regime to collapse.

It is possible that the US attack will trigger defections from Iran’s political leadership and armed forces, but this cannot be counted on. Hamas and Gaza are a reminder that regimes can absorb incredible punishment yet cling to power.

And even if the clerics fall from power – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed – the security forces are arguably best positioned to take their place.

In any case, using military force to kill select leaders as a means of triggering regime change – a tactic often called decapitation – is unlikely to succeed in Iran, where the leadership has institutionalized itself since taking power nearly a half-century ago.

Moreover, the leadership has had time to improve succession planning over the past few weeks as the possibility of war increased.

During its January incursion into Venezuela, the Trump administration limited itself to replacing one leader (all but ignoring the internal opposition), while in much of the world, it has avoided pressing for democracy.

In the case of Iran, though, Trump has called for regime change – but without preparing the ground for it. The political opposition is not united or functioning as a government in waiting, which means that it is unable to accept defections, much less provide security.

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History suggests that regime change requires a physical, on-the-ground presence. This is the lesson of Germany and Japan after World War II, and Panama, Iraq, and Afghanistan more recently.

And even with a ground presence, such efforts often come up short. In Iran, occupation is inconceivable, given the country’s size and ability to resist.

All of which is to say that the Trump administration has chosen to accomplish the most ambitious of foreign-policy goals with limited means. It seems to have rejected a war of choice with narrower goals, such as degrading known Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, even though it could credibly claim to have achieved these ends.

If there is a recent parallel to what is taking place in Iran, it is Libya, where just over a decade ago Western forces ousted the leadership using air power but then withdrew, leaving the country in chaos.

In the Iranian case, it appears that assembling a massive military presence – what Trump called an armada – ended up putting pressure on the administration to act, because US forces could not be maintained in a high state of readiness on location indefinitely.

As a result, the means of policy (military force) may well have played a large role in determining the ends of policy, namely, the decision to attack. This is obviously the reverse of how policy should be decided.

Taking a step back, the US has opted yet again to make a massive strategic commitment in the Middle East. This is at odds with the Trump administration’s own National Security Strategy and with the reality that the greatest challenges to US interests are to be found in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Here the parallel is to the 2003 Iraq War, another preventive war of choice in the region that cost the US enormously.

The American people are unprepared for this war. Nor is Trump’s political base, as it will unsettle markets, cause a spike in energy prices, and could go on for some time. America’s allies are unhappy as well, as Iran has already attacked several neighboring countries and could take steps that damage their economies.

Trump did not use his State of the Union speech Tuesday night to make the case for attacking Iran, and much of his statement in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s attack emphasized past actions by Iran rather than new or emerging threats.

It is possible that last year’s cost-free bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites and the more recent intervention in Venezuela made Trump and those around him highly confident that they could achieve ambitious ends with limited means at a low cost.

He may also have been tempted to achieve something historic in Iran – regime change – that eluded his predecessors. He may still succeed. But as a rule, regime change is easier called for than successfully carried out.

While it takes only one side to begin a war, it takes two to end it. Iran now has a vote in how big this conflict becomes and how long it continues.

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Peace Deal Theater: Trump, Tehran and the Strait of Schrodinger’s Hormuz

So Iran’s top brass flies into Doha, oil drops 5 percent, and suddenly we’re all supposed to believe in “peace” again — like the last three months were just a global stress test for your grocery bill. Tehran sends Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Washington sends “senior officials” who only appear with the words “speaking on condition of anonymity.” Translation: everyone’s negotiating, and nobody wants their name on the receipt.

Trump, as usual, is running foreign policy like a reality show finale: the deal will be “great and meaningful” or there will be “no deal,” while he also insists his people are “in no rush.” That’s not diplomacy, that’s a hostage note to the markets. Iran responds with its own poker face — yes, “a large portion of the issues” is agreed, but “no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent.” In other words: both sides want the cameras to see “progress,” but not enough progress to be held accountable for anything concrete, like nukes or tankers actually moving.

The core “peace framework” is beautifully hollow: stop the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, kick every hard question — sanctions, nuclear program, Hezbollah, Israel’s security, frozen assets — into some “future rounds” that may or may not exist. Trump gets a chance to walk away from an unpopular war that’s torpedoed the global economy; Iran gets time to rebuild and keep its nuclear ambiguity; everyone else gets higher energy prices dressed up as the price of “stability.”

Meanwhile, Israel looks at this “peace” talk and sees one thing: an agreement that doesn’t really touch Iran’s nuclear capabilities or its regional militias. Lebanese civilians get to keep serving as collateral in the never-ending cross-border duel between Israel and Hezbollah, because no one in Doha is seriously negotiating over Lebanon — that’s just a side quest in someone else’s war game. Pakistan plays the responsible broker and flies off to Beijing, where Xi Jinping praises Islamabad’s role while making sure Chinese access to Iranian oil is the only real non-negotiable on the table.

Oil prices fall a bit on “cautious optimism,” but they’re still about 30 percent higher than before this whole circus started, and energy analysts are already warning that supply won’t normalize until 2027. That’s the real deal here: war as a premium subscription model — pay more for the same barrel, get less clarity, and watch your leaders argue on TV about “principles” while they bargain over shipping lanes and uranium stockpiles.

The funniest part? Both Washington and Tehran are accusing each other of spinning the terms of an agreement that doesn’t exist yet. Peace has become another PR asset: announce it, hedge it, leak it, deny it, then blame the other side for “mistrust” when the market gets jittery. If this is what “largely negotiated” looks like, imagine what “totally screwed” will be.

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U.S.–Iran Ceasefire 2.0: Now With Extra Minesweeping

Washington and Tehran just invented a new product: a “framework” that is not a deal, totally not signed, but somehow already moving oil prices and global markets.

Brent drops almost 6 percent, Asian stocks smile, and everyone pretends this is about “relief to families at the pump,” not about saving Trump’s political skin and Iran’s regional leverage.

On paper it sounds clean: 60-day ceasefire extension, de‑mining and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, all fronts shut down — even Lebanon — plus a pledge from Iran to never build a nuke and to get rid of its “nuclear dust,” that stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

In reality, the hard stuff — full nuclear deal, sanctions, real timelines — is kicked down the road into yet another “time-limited negotiation.” Perfect: war paused, ambiguity preserved, everyone keeps their favorite pressure tools.

Trump plays his usual role: raging on Truth Social that critics “know nothing” about a deal that “isn’t even fully negotiated yet,” then promising it will either be “great and meaningful” or there will be “no deal.”

It’s the art of strategic gaslighting: he gets the market reaction of a peace deal without the political price of actually owning one. If it blows up, it was never “his” deal; if it works, it was genius all along.

The U.S. version says Iran is “committed” to no nukes and only gets its frozen assets — starting with a $12 billion appetizer — once it begins giving up enriched uranium.

The Iranian version stresses there is no nuclear agreement yet, just a promise to talk about one later, and that the opening of the Strait will be phased, with blockades and sanctions “loosened proportionately.” Trust but verify, on steroids; loopholes, on cocaine.

Then there’s Israel: officially guaranteed the right to “act against imminent threats,” including Hezbollah in Lebanon, even under this new ceasefire.

So the war is “ended,” except for the parts where Israel can still strike, Hezbollah can still provoke, and civilians can still die under a legalese umbrella stamped “self-defense.” This isn’t peace; it’s a risk‑management product with a weapons‑included clause.

They’re not ending the war, they’re repricing it. The Strait reopens just enough to calm traders, the nukes are “addressed” just enough to calm pundits, and the shooting stops just long enough to reboot everyone’s talking points.

#war #iran #usa #trump #straitofhormuz #oil #geopolitics #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy #middleeast

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Qatar’s Peace Circus: Iran, Trump and the Paywall on Hormuz

Iran’s top envoys are in Doha, sipping coffee with Qatar’s prime minister and pretending this is about “peace,” not pricing.

The talks officially hinge on three things: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear “issues,” and getting Iran’s frozen billions unfrozen.
In other words: ships, uranium and cash — everything else is just background noise.

Both sides now speak fluent Ambiguous Optimism. Rubio says there’s a “pretty solid thing on the table” to open the strait and start a “time‑limited” nuclear negotiation, while Iran’s spokesman Baghaei dryly reminds everyone that, no, they’re not close to signing anything. Washington leaks that Iran has agreed “in principle” to open Hormuz and dispose of enriched uranium; Tehran insists nuclear details will be parked for a 60‑day chat later, if the framework is even agreed.

Same script, different capitals: sell hope to the markets, dodge responsibility at home.

Trump, meanwhile, plays global landlord. On Truth Social he boasts that talks are going “nicely,” demands that Saudi Arabia and Qatar hurry up and join the Abraham Accords, and repeats that the Iran deal will be either “great and meaningful” or there will be “no deal at all.”

He also vows the U.S. naval blockade at Hormuz stays “in full force and effect” until an agreement is “reached, certified and signed” — which is a lawyer’s way of saying: I keep my boot on your neck until the cameras are rolling at the signing ceremony.

The memorandum of understanding Baghaei describes is pure technocratic theater: 14 points to end the war and lift the U.S. blockade in exchange for Iran guaranteeing safe transit through the strait. No real detail on who manages what, just a promise that Iran won’t charge tolls — only “service fees” for navigation and environmental protection, conveniently to be defined in a protocol with Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, normally carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, has been effectively throttled since late February; now 32 vessels and five tankers creep through in 24 hours, all under IRGC permission, like global trade on a visitor’s visa.

Oil reacts faster than any parliament: prices drop more than 4 percent to two‑week lows on optimism about a deal, but the underlying energy crisis doesn’t move.

The war tax is still baked into fuel, fertilizer, food — the essentials that don’t get ceasefires. The sticking points stay radioactive: Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon with Hezbollah, Tehran’s demand to unfreeze tens of billions in oil revenues.

Behind the curtain, Iranian sources casually mention “feasible formulas” to dilute enriched uranium under IAEA supervision, like this is just a chemistry lab exercise, not the core of the entire crisis.

And then the human cost, which everyone uses as a talking point and nobody treats as the client. U.S.–Israeli bombing has killed thousands in Iran; Israel has killed thousands more and displaced hundreds of thousands in Lebanon; Iranian strikes on Israel and Gulf states have killed dozens. Trump’s approval rating sinks with U.S. energy prices, Congress grumbles about his war powers, and Netanyahu reportedly tells confidants that Israel can barely influence Trump’s decisions anymore.

So the war became what wars always become: a domestic polling problem in Washington, a loss‑of‑control problem in Jerusalem, and a survival problem everywhere the bombs actually fall.

If this is “peace,” it looks a lot like a joint venture: Washington, Tehran and their regional partners trying to reopen the cash register of global trade without closing the weapons account.

When they say “end the war,” do they mean for the people under the bombs, or just for the traders watching Brent on a second screen?

#war #iran #usa #trump #qatar #straitofhormuz #oil #geopolitics #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy #middleeast

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