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📰 The Holy Succession Show: Tehran Edition

Iran’s clerics are prepping to crown a new Supreme Leader — while the capital burns like a refinery-themed apocalypse. Tehran’s skies turned orange overnight, fuel depots exploded, and the fire’s glow was bright enough for the mullahs to read their succession notes without electricity.

“With the fire it felt like night became day, and then with all the smoke, the day turned back into night,” said a Tehran resident.

The official line? Israel hit “military fuel sites.” The unofficial one? Iran’s oil empire just got a free light show courtesy of U.S. taxpayers. Washington pretends it’s all about stability, Jerusalem calls it self-defense, and everyone else just watches oil prices rise like a holy sacrament.

Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba is allegedly next in line — proving again that in God’s republic, power is hereditary. The clerics want to project calm, but their version of “stability” looks like orange skies, falling drones, and desalination plants exploding in Bahrain.

Trump, meanwhile, plays wartime CEO from Air Force One. On Monday, he was “all in” on Kurdish allies. By Saturday, he’d downsized that policy — too “complex,” he said. Management pivot. Same bombs, different press release.

Iran vows revenge. Israel promises “many more targets.” And the U.S. keeps striking Revolutionary Guard sites while denying the obvious: no war “for democracy” ever ends before the markets are satisfied.

The Middle East right now isn’t a battlefield — it’s a burning stage set for yet another script about God, oil, and power families. Everyone acts loyal, everyone dies on camera, and the credits always roll in dollars.

#iran #israel #us #war #oil #regimechange #oligarchy #revolution

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📰 Trump & Netanyahu: Who Owns This War?

For Netanyahu, Trump was the miracle hire who did what no other U.S. president would: moved the embassy, blessed the settlers, tore up the Iran deal — and finally joined a war that killed Iran’s supreme leader. But the real story now isn’t “prophetic fulfillment.” It’s whether Bibi can turn that war into one more escape from political death, and whether Trump can sell another Middle East adventure to voters who were promised “no more stupid wars.”

Trump has repeatedly done what Netanyahu could never get from anyone else — ordered strikes on Iran, backed massive deployments, shielded Israel diplomatically. At the same time, he has forced Netanyahu to accept what once defined Bibi’s brand: halting annexation, tolerating a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, and signing onto a “pathway” to some version of Palestinian self-determination. The alliance works like this: Trump indulges Netanyahu’s biggest ambitions, then publicly redraws his red lines — and Bibi swallows it, because the trade is war power now for ideological humiliation later.

Both men are gambling on the same asset: other people’s fear. In Israel, polls show a bump for Netanyahu tied to the Iran offensive, and insiders openly describe the war as a way to shift attention away from Oct. 7 and his corruption trials. In the U.S., Trump is betting that images of “decisive” strikes will outweigh rising gas prices, fatigue with foreign wars, and the memory of Iraq — even as analysts warn that the Iran operation is already eroding his core promise of putting Americans first.

So the question isn’t who is “playing” whom. Netanyahu and Trump are perfectly aligned where it matters: they both treat military escalation as a domestic political instrument. The difference is only in where the bodies fall — Iranians, Israelis, Americans, “regional partners” — all absorbed into the same cost column, while the leaders argue over credit, not responsibility.

The war will end, as these wars always do, with no clear victory and a slightly different map of enemies; the only measurable success will be whether two vulnerable incumbents managed to turn a regional catastrophe into one more election cycle. Everyone else is there to prove how much their survival is worth.

#israel #iran #trump #netanyahu #war #oil #uspolitics #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy #middleeast

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📰 Trump to Starmer: No Freeloaders in a War He Hasn’t Finished

Trump is bombing Iran, promising “complete destruction and certain death,” and at the same time scolding Britain for showing up late to a war that is very obviously still happening on live TV. Keir Starmer finally lets the U.S. use Diego Garcia and a U.K. air base for “defensive” strikes, four B-1 bombers land, and Trump’s line is basically: thanks, but we’ll put your loyalty tab on the fridge and judge you later.

London’s position is pure lawyer-speak: first Iran strikes would be illegal, now “collective self-defense” makes them fine, as long as you call it limited and defensive. Washington calls it leadership, Starmer calls it caution, and everyone quietly accepts that British bases are in the game while Britain pretends it is not “joining the strikes.”

Then Tony Blair climbs out of the Iraq archive to lecture Starmer for not backing Trump from “the very beginning,” warning that America is an “indispensable cornerstone” and that allies must “show up” no matter who is president. The man who sold the last great disaster now demands loyalty to the next one, and the British political class treats it as strategic wisdom, not a confession.

In this script, Trump plays the offended general, Starmer plays the nervous lawyer, and Blair plays the ghost of forever wars — but they all agree on one thing: the real sin is not joining the killing too late, it’s hesitating at all. Civilians in Iran don’t get a vote on the timing; they just find out which ally decided to “show up” this week.

#iran #trump #starmer #blair #ukpolitics #uspolitics #war #nato #fakeDemocracy #middleeast

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📰 War Budget, No Draft: How God’s Parties Just Saved Bibi

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox parties are quietly climbing down from their sacred ultimatum: no draft exemption law, no state budget. Now, under the cover of war, Degel HaTorah’s rabbis have told their MKs to back the 2026 budget even if the conscription dodge isn’t legally locked in. In a system built on extortion, the professional extortionists just blinked.

The stakes are simple: no budget by the end of the month, the government falls and elections follow. For years, Shas and Degel HaTorah swore they’d bring the house down before letting tens of thousands of yeshiva students face the draft; now, with a war burning and soldiers exhausted, they suddenly discover “national responsibility.” Translation: better a flawed budget today than risk a different coalition tomorrow.

This isn’t a morality play, it’s a swap. The Haredi leadership knows that any new draft law is likely to be toothless, legally shaky, and eventually gutted by the High Court. So they take the money and time now, bet on legal chaos later, and hope that by the time the justices rule, everyone is too tired, too broke, or too dead to enforce anything on thousands of “deserters.”

Netanyahu, for his part, gets exactly what he needs: a budget that keeps him in office through war, with his most loyal partners back on board and their rage theatrically redirected at the courts and “leftist elites.” The soldiers keep serving, the Haredi draft problem stays unsolved, and the crisis over “sharing the burden” is converted into one more overdraft on Israel’s future.

In this arrangement, the war is not the reason to fix the inequality — it’s the excuse not to.

#israel #budget #haredim #draft #netanyahu #war #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy

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Why Did Trump Start the War Against Iran?

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Oil prices continued to surge on Monday, triggering a stark sell-off across some of the world’s leading stock markets amid growing concern that the US-Israel war on Iran could set the stage for a global economic shock.

The Middle East conflict has sparked an energy supply crisis that could risk driving up inflation and interest rates, according to economists, who believe growth is set to weaken while prices rise.

Fears of stagflation – where economic activity stagnates, but inflation increases – loom large.

The price of key oil benchmarks had already posted their highest weekly gains in six years by the time markets opened on Monday – when they soared to more than US$115 a barrel , surpassing $100 for the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark price for US crude is now nearly double its January level of about $60 a barrel.

Oil prices climbed significantly in the first week of the US-Israel war on Iran after Iran in effect closed the strait of Hormuz.

About a fifth of global oil and seaborne gas tankers typically pass through the strait, making it one of the world’s most important trade arteries.

Oil production cuts across the Middle East in recent days have exacerbated fears of a supply shortage.

The lengthening conflict has eroded the chance of prices resetting, according to Warren Hogan, economic adviser at Judo Bank.

“There’s a good chance that we’re seeing one of the most sudden increases in the cost of oil to the global economy ever,” Hogan said.

Gas and fertiliser supplies have also been hit, driving up costs and increasing the risk of a significant global energy price spike, adding to inflation and slowing economic activity.

The US war on Iran is widely expected to boost inflation across the world, with a sustained rise in oil prices rippling through the wider economy.

US inflation will surge to 3.7% if oil prices hold at $100 a barrel, according to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists.

#war #oil #hogan #economy #world #israel

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Americans filling up their cars can already feel the impact: US fuel prices rose 25 cents over the week, and picked up another 25 cents over the weekend, averaging $3.44 a gallon by Sunday night, according to Gas Buddy.

Higher fuel costs drain workers’ wallets and add to business costs in other ways, pushing up the price of goods from food to furniture.

Oil price spikes are “stagflationary”: they slow down, or stagnate, economic activity, raising the risk of recession, while adding to inflation.

World economic growth would weather a 10% lift in energy prices, according to the International Monetary Fund, but slow from about 3.2% to 3%. The UK and the euro area would each grow by just 1% or less, if the conflict persists, economists predict.

Asian economies have enjoyed strong growth in industrial production, powered by the global tech boom, but an energy shock could disrupt that momentum, risking stagflation, Oxford Economics has warned.

The oil shock resembles those seen in the 1970s, when conflict in the Middle East resulted in surging prices and dragged advanced economies into persistent slumps, according to David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares.

“If oil does stay above $100 a barrel and this disruption continues, then we may face a stagflationary moment in the first half of the year:

weak growth, but central banks unable to do much about it because of the high level of inflation,” he said.

Before the war, the US Federal Reserve – under significant pressure from Trump to bring down rates – and the Bank of England had been expected to cut rates twice in 2026.

Now the Fed is expected to cut only in September, and the Bank of England expected to hold them steady throughout the year.

Australia is now expected to face two rate hikes this year, when just one had been priced in before the conflict.

A quick de-escalation would help the world avoid an inflation spiral, as oil prices would stabilise, according to the National Australia Bank’s chief economist, Sally Auld.

While she said it seemed unlikely the conflict would endure for another month, if it did, there would be “material risk of global recession” and oil prices could hold near US$120 a barrel.

A month-long disruption could even see prices surpass the all-time record high of US$145 a barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated.

Three months of disruption would see prices rise to US$185 per barrel, with severe consequences for the global economy, Westpac economists predict.

#war #oil #hogan #economy #world #israel

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Ali Khamenei’s Second Son Took His Place
Who is He?

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Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor, as the war enters its 10th day and fresh missile and drone strikes reverberate across the Middle East.

After members of the clerical body responsible for selecting Iran’s highest authority announced the decision on Sunday, Iranian institutions and politicians, from the foreign ministry to lawmakers, issued statements expressing their allegiance.

“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a statement from the defence council said.

The move could lead to a further escalation of the war, given Donald Trump had already acknowledged that Mojtaba Khamenei was the most likely successor and made clear he considered him an “unacceptable” choice.

The US president said earlier on Sunday that Iran’s next supreme leader was “not going to last long” if Tehran did not get his approval first.

When asked about the appointment during an interview with the Times of Israel published late on Sunday, Trump was reported as saying: “We’ll see what happens.”

In the same interview, Trump said a decision on when to end the war would be a “mutual” one, together with Netanyahu.

Trump also asserted that Iran would have destroyed Israel if he and Netanyahu had not been around. “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it (…) We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” he was quoted as saying.

The Israeli military said it had launched a wave of strikes on Monday targeting “regime infrastructure” in central Iran, the first such announcement since the appointment of the new supreme leader.

The military also announced strikes on the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran and its proxies appeared to have launched attacks, too, with rocket and drone strikes targeting a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad’s international airport that were intercepted by the C-RAM defence system, said police sources.

A drone strike targeted a US military base near Erbil airport in Iraqi Kurdistan, security sources said, while Saudi authorities reported intercepting a drone east of its northern al-Jawf region.

In Bahrain, the health ministry reported 32 people were wounded overnight by an Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra.

They include a 17-year-old girl who suffered severe head and eye injuries, and a two-month-old baby, according to the ministry.

Iranian state media also showed a projectile said to have been launched at Israel bearing the slogan: “At your command, Sayyid Mojtaba,” using an Islamic honorific.

#khamenei #mojtaba #son #iran #leader #rule

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The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei was welcomed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are backed by the Iranian regime.

“We congratulate the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership and people, on the selection of Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution at this important and pivotal juncture,” the group said in a statement on Telegram.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation marks the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution that Iran’s supreme leadership has passed from father to son.

It is a development likely to ignite debate inside Iran about the emergence of a dynastic system in a state founded explicitly to overthrow hereditary rule after the shah.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled for 37 years, was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Tehran on 28 February, on the first day of the war with Iran.

Across Iran’s political and security establishment, officials moved swiftly to welcome the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader.

The Revolutionary Guards declared they stood ready to follow him, signalling broad backing from the country’s core institutions.

Earlier in the day, in a post on X in Farsi, the Israeli military said it would continue pursuing every successor of Ali Khamenei and would pursue every person who sought to appoint a successor for him.

For many analysts, Khamenei’s appointment is a symbolic move designed to make the regime still appear strong and determined not to bow to western pressure.

The 56-year-old cleric has never held elected office nor formally occupied a senior position within Iran’s government. He has spent much of his life at the centre of power in Iran while remaining largely out of public view.

To his supporters, Khamenei represents continuity with the ideological line established by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and maintained by his father. To critics, his rise raises uncomfortable questions about the concentration of power – and the possibility of hereditary leadership in a state founded in revolt against monarchy.

Oil prices surged more than 25% on Monday to their highest levels since mid-2022, as major Middle Eastern oil producers cut supply because they cannot safely send shipments through the strait of Hormuz to refiners worldwide.

Traffic through the strait was largely closed after Iran attacked at least five ships, with a limited number of tankers transiting, choking off a key artery accounting for about 20% of global oil and LNG supply.

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📰 ISIS vs. ‘Islamic Takeover’: Two Extremes, Same Script

New York just staged a miniature war of narratives outside the mayor’s house: a far-right “Stop the Islamic Takeover of New York City” protest on one side, and two young guys who showed up with TATP and ISIS talk on the other. The bombs didn’t detonate, but the intent did — one suspect allegedly told agents he wanted something “even bigger” than the Boston Marathon, the other shouted “ISIS” on bodycam and scrawled a pledge to the group, according to the federal complaint.

Officials now call it “ISIS‑inspired terrorism,” while carefully stressing there’s no link to the Iran war or overseas commands. Convenient, because then nobody has to admit what this really is: a protest already built on fantasies of civilizational siege becoming the stage for kids who swallowed the mirror image of the same fantasy and decided to throw live explosives into it.

In court, it will be framed as lone‑wolf jihad and heroic law enforcement. On Fox and fringe podcasts, it will be proof that New York is under Islamic attack. For the mayor — the city’s first Muslim, already cast as a symbol — it’s one more reason to condemn “reprehensible” violence and every reason to avoid talking about how a country that wages holy wars abroad keeps breeding hobby martyrs at home.

The through line is simple: if your politics runs on apocalypse, someone eventually brings a bomb to the rally.

#nyc #terrorism #isis #farRight #mamdani #war #uspolitics #fakeDemocracy

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📰 Netanyahu’s ‘New Middle East’ 3.0: From Trade Corridor to Controlled Collapse

Benjamin Netanyahu has been workshopping his “New Middle East” for three decades — and the Iran war is just the latest beta release. In 1996, his “Clean Break” blueprint openly imagined Israel reshaping the region with the U.S. as the main vehicle, keeping Israeli dominance by managing permanent, controlled chaos.
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Version 1.0 came to the U.N. in September 2023: Bibi with a red marker and a map of a “New Middle East” with no Palestine on it, selling an IMEC trade corridor from India to Europe as a “blessing” and Iran’s nuclear program as the “curse.” The vision was highways, fiber and pipelines across the Gulf, Israel and Europe — prosperity for “two billion people” — as long as Palestinians stayed erased from the picture.
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Version 2.0, at the U.N. in 2024, split the map in two: a green “blessing” camp (Gulf states, Egypt) and a black “curse” bloc (Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen), with an explicit call for regime change in the “cursed” states. The same speech still talked about a shining corridor from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean — but now the business plan sat on top of a demolition plan for entire governments.
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Version 3.0 is the war you’re watching now. Since October 7, Netanyahu has promised not just victory over Hamas but a fundamental “change in the face of the Middle East,” stretching that mission to include Iran and the entire resistance axis. Commentators around him now describe the February 28 strike that killed Khamenei as the forcible birth of a new regional order, with Israel trying to engineer the collapse of the resistance camp, not just manage it.
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So when you see maps, corridors and talk of “blessings,” that’s the ad copy. The underlying product hasn’t changed since 1996: a region broken into manageable pieces, with Israel as the permanent project manager and the U.S. as the enforcement arm.
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