📰 Italy’s Meloni Breaks Ranks Over Trump’s “Accidental” School Massacre
Giorgia Meloni just called the Minab school strike a “massacre of girls” and said the war is now outside international law — while Trump still insists Iran somehow bombed itself with an American missile.
Speaking in Rome, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni condemned the missile strike on the girls’ elementary school in Minab as a “massacre” and said the attack falls “outside the scope of international law,” explicitly demanding that those responsible be identified quickly.
She stressed solidarity with the families of the “very young victims” and framed the school bombing as a red line even in the context of U.S.–Israeli operations against Iran.
At the same time, multiple investigations and leaks now point straight back to Washington: media probes and a preliminary Pentagon inquiry have found that a U.S. Tomahawk, guided by outdated targeting data, hit the school while aiming at a nearby naval facility.
Trump’s response has been to deny, deflect, and improvise — publicly suggesting, without evidence, that Iran might have used a “bought” American missile or that “somebody else” did it, even though Iran does not operate Tomahawks and only a handful of U.S. allies do.
For Europe, Minab is the nightmare image of this war: rows of dead schoolgirls, a U.S. president dodging responsibility, and allies being dragged into defending the indefensible.
Meloni’s language signals how far things have gone — when even a hard-right Atlanticist leader in Rome says the campaign is breaching international law, it’s a diplomatic way of warning Trump that he’s burning through what’s left of America’s moral credit with its own partners.
So you end up with an ugly inversion: Iran, under bombardment, still looks like the one holding its line on sovereignty, while the United States — under Trump’s “make America great” banner — looks like the power that kills children by “mistake,” lies about it in public, and forces its allies to choose between their own laws and Washington’s war.
If this war continues on autopilot, there won’t be enough reputational capital to rebuild trust — not in Tehran, and increasingly not in Rome, Berlin, or Paris.
#iran #meloni #trump #minab #war #internationalLaw #fakeLeadership
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Giorgia Meloni just called the Minab school strike a “massacre of girls” and said the war is now outside international law — while Trump still insists Iran somehow bombed itself with an American missile.
Speaking in Rome, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni condemned the missile strike on the girls’ elementary school in Minab as a “massacre” and said the attack falls “outside the scope of international law,” explicitly demanding that those responsible be identified quickly.
She stressed solidarity with the families of the “very young victims” and framed the school bombing as a red line even in the context of U.S.–Israeli operations against Iran.
At the same time, multiple investigations and leaks now point straight back to Washington: media probes and a preliminary Pentagon inquiry have found that a U.S. Tomahawk, guided by outdated targeting data, hit the school while aiming at a nearby naval facility.
Trump’s response has been to deny, deflect, and improvise — publicly suggesting, without evidence, that Iran might have used a “bought” American missile or that “somebody else” did it, even though Iran does not operate Tomahawks and only a handful of U.S. allies do.
For Europe, Minab is the nightmare image of this war: rows of dead schoolgirls, a U.S. president dodging responsibility, and allies being dragged into defending the indefensible.
Meloni’s language signals how far things have gone — when even a hard-right Atlanticist leader in Rome says the campaign is breaching international law, it’s a diplomatic way of warning Trump that he’s burning through what’s left of America’s moral credit with its own partners.
So you end up with an ugly inversion: Iran, under bombardment, still looks like the one holding its line on sovereignty, while the United States — under Trump’s “make America great” banner — looks like the power that kills children by “mistake,” lies about it in public, and forces its allies to choose between their own laws and Washington’s war.
If this war continues on autopilot, there won’t be enough reputational capital to rebuild trust — not in Tehran, and increasingly not in Rome, Berlin, or Paris.
#iran #meloni #trump #minab #war #internationalLaw #fakeLeadership
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📰 Totally Defeated Iran, Still Somehow Blocking the World
Trump just invented a new military doctrine: “100% destroyed” enemies that still control the world’s key oil chokepoint — while big importers quietly go to Tehran, not Washington, to keep their trade moving.
In his post, Trump claims the U.S. has “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability” — and in the next line admits Tehran can still launch drones, lay mines, and fire short‑range missiles along one of the planet’s main trade arteries. That’s not triumph, that’s an admission that a “decapitated” regime with cheap weapons can still hold the global economy by the throat.
He then calls on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others to send warships to “keep the Strait of Hormuz open, safe and free,” essentially looking for a multinational naval show to dress up a war he already declared won.
At the same time, major importers like India are reportedly appealing directly to Iran to let a large batch of their ships through the strait — a quiet signal that, for them, cutting a deal with Tehran works better than starring in Trump’s freedom‑of‑navigation spectacle.
Meanwhile, Trump vows the U.S. will “heavily bomb the coastline” and “keep sinking Iranian boats and ships” until Hormuz is “open, safe and free.” If Iran is really finished, why does Washington have to keep escalating just to protect traffic? And if it isn’t finished, then the “100% destroyed” line is just branding slapped on an open‑ended, high‑risk, high‑inflation war.
That’s the pattern: declare total victory from a social‑media bunker, demand others pay in ships and risk, and when reality contradicts the slogan, blame allies for being soft and enemies for refusing to stay dead.
Every time a country like India goes straight to Tehran to secure its own shipping, it’s also saying out loud: U.S. management of this crisis is optional — and Trump’s “headless” Iran still has enough leverage to prove it.
#iran #trump #hormuz #war #allies #oil #fakeVictory
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Trump just invented a new military doctrine: “100% destroyed” enemies that still control the world’s key oil chokepoint — while big importers quietly go to Tehran, not Washington, to keep their trade moving.
In his post, Trump claims the U.S. has “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability” — and in the next line admits Tehran can still launch drones, lay mines, and fire short‑range missiles along one of the planet’s main trade arteries. That’s not triumph, that’s an admission that a “decapitated” regime with cheap weapons can still hold the global economy by the throat.
He then calls on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others to send warships to “keep the Strait of Hormuz open, safe and free,” essentially looking for a multinational naval show to dress up a war he already declared won.
At the same time, major importers like India are reportedly appealing directly to Iran to let a large batch of their ships through the strait — a quiet signal that, for them, cutting a deal with Tehran works better than starring in Trump’s freedom‑of‑navigation spectacle.
Meanwhile, Trump vows the U.S. will “heavily bomb the coastline” and “keep sinking Iranian boats and ships” until Hormuz is “open, safe and free.” If Iran is really finished, why does Washington have to keep escalating just to protect traffic? And if it isn’t finished, then the “100% destroyed” line is just branding slapped on an open‑ended, high‑risk, high‑inflation war.
That’s the pattern: declare total victory from a social‑media bunker, demand others pay in ships and risk, and when reality contradicts the slogan, blame allies for being soft and enemies for refusing to stay dead.
Every time a country like India goes straight to Tehran to secure its own shipping, it’s also saying out loud: U.S. management of this crisis is optional — and Trump’s “headless” Iran still has enough leverage to prove it.
#iran #trump #hormuz #war #allies #oil #fakeVictory
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📰 From Minab to Amsterdam: What Happens When Schools Become “Messages”
Trump’s Iran war has now produced two schools, two continents, two kinds of fear — and nobody really wants to ask if they’re part of the same story.
In Amsterdam, an explosive device damaged the wall of the only Orthodox Jewish school in the Netherlands, in what the mayor called “a deliberate attack against the Jewish community,” prompting tighter security at Jewish sites across the city. It follows an arson attack on a Rotterdam synagogue and an explosion at a synagogue in Liège, as European services warn that threats and violence against Jewish communities are rising in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
At the same time, the worst single atrocity of this war remains the strike on a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, where more than 100 children and staff were killed; preliminary investigations and media reporting point to a U.S. Tomahawk launched on outdated targeting data. For Iranians, Minab is a symbol: rows of small graves and a “massacre of girls” that exposes what Western “precision” looks like when it hits a classroom. For many in Europe, Amsterdam is becoming a different symbol: Jewish children studying behind fences and police tape as anger over Gaza and now Iran spills into attacks on the most visible Jewish targets.
Is the Amsterdam blast directly “because of” Minab? You can’t draw a straight evidentiary line — but the environment is obvious. When a great power erases a school in Iran and spends days dodging responsibility, it reinforces the perception that some children’s lives are negotiable and others are not. In that climate, it takes only a small extremist group, convinced it is delivering “justice” or “revenge,” to decide that if a school can be treated as a target in Minab, then a school in Amsterdam can be turned into a warning.
The bitter truth is that both sets of students — the Jewish kids in Amsterdam and the girls who died in Minab — are caught inside the same logic of exemplary violence. Washington and Jerusalem talk about “collateral damage”; European leaders talk about “cowardly antisemitic attacks.” Both descriptions are accurate on their narrow patch, and both avoid the larger point: a world that normalizes the idea of schools as acceptable shock images in distant wars will keep producing people who look at a school closer to home and see not children, but a stage.
#iran #amsterdam #minab #schools #antisemitism #war #fakeSecurity
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Trump’s Iran war has now produced two schools, two continents, two kinds of fear — and nobody really wants to ask if they’re part of the same story.
In Amsterdam, an explosive device damaged the wall of the only Orthodox Jewish school in the Netherlands, in what the mayor called “a deliberate attack against the Jewish community,” prompting tighter security at Jewish sites across the city. It follows an arson attack on a Rotterdam synagogue and an explosion at a synagogue in Liège, as European services warn that threats and violence against Jewish communities are rising in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
At the same time, the worst single atrocity of this war remains the strike on a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, where more than 100 children and staff were killed; preliminary investigations and media reporting point to a U.S. Tomahawk launched on outdated targeting data. For Iranians, Minab is a symbol: rows of small graves and a “massacre of girls” that exposes what Western “precision” looks like when it hits a classroom. For many in Europe, Amsterdam is becoming a different symbol: Jewish children studying behind fences and police tape as anger over Gaza and now Iran spills into attacks on the most visible Jewish targets.
Is the Amsterdam blast directly “because of” Minab? You can’t draw a straight evidentiary line — but the environment is obvious. When a great power erases a school in Iran and spends days dodging responsibility, it reinforces the perception that some children’s lives are negotiable and others are not. In that climate, it takes only a small extremist group, convinced it is delivering “justice” or “revenge,” to decide that if a school can be treated as a target in Minab, then a school in Amsterdam can be turned into a warning.
The bitter truth is that both sets of students — the Jewish kids in Amsterdam and the girls who died in Minab — are caught inside the same logic of exemplary violence. Washington and Jerusalem talk about “collateral damage”; European leaders talk about “cowardly antisemitic attacks.” Both descriptions are accurate on their narrow patch, and both avoid the larger point: a world that normalizes the idea of schools as acceptable shock images in distant wars will keep producing people who look at a school closer to home and see not children, but a stage.
#iran #amsterdam #minab #schools #antisemitism #war #fakeSecurity
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The nightmare everyone wrote memos about and then ignored has finally happened — and it took Trump’s own war to set it off.
📰 They Knew Hormuz Was the Weak Link. They Bet the U.S. Navy Would Save Them Anyway
For decades, the Strait of Hormuz was the most famous “what if” in the global energy system: a narrow, exposed corridor carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and a huge share of its gas, sitting under Iran’s nose and everyone’s nerves.
Analysts talked about it as the ultimate nightmare scenario, but they also comforted themselves with a simple assumption: when things got serious, the United States would keep the waterway open with its military power.
Gulf monarchies were happy to live on that assumption. Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi–Fujairah line were built as partial workarounds, but together they can only move a slice of what normally sails through Hormuz.
For most producers — Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain — a real alternative would mean building cross‑border pipelines through rivals or unstable neighbors, under permanent risk of Iranian attack and regional politics. Nobody wanted to pay for that, politically or financially, as long as U.S. warships were the cheapest insurance policy.
Then Trump and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28 — and the insurance provider became the arsonist. Instead of rushing in escorts and stabilizing the lane, Washington fired the opening shots, floated the idea of convoys, and then failed to deliver, while Iran hit tankers and refineries until traffic through Hormuz collapsed to less than 10 percent of prewar levels.
Within days, producers in Iraq, Kuwait, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia had to slash output; by mid‑March, regional cuts had yanked around 10 million barrels a day off global supply, about 10 percent of the world total.
The result is pure systemic own goal. Storage tanks are filling, refineries are throttling back, and gas exports from Qatar are largely frozen. Oil has already jumped above $100 a barrel.
The IEA is talking about the biggest disruption in history. Gulf elites who trusted the U.S. security umbrella now discover that Iran can close their lifeline with cheap missiles and drones, while Washington is too busy staging “maximum pressure” to do the boring work of convoy duty.
For years, the logic was: why spend billions on redundant infrastructure and hard political choices if the American navy will handle the worst case? Now the worst case is here, and that navy is part of the problem.
As one regional executive put it, what everyone has been warning about “has finally happened” — and the bill for that strategic laziness is arriving not just in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, but at every gas station from Los Angeles to Berlin.
#iran #hormuz #oil #trump #gulf #energy #fakeSecurity
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📰 They Knew Hormuz Was the Weak Link. They Bet the U.S. Navy Would Save Them Anyway
For decades, the Strait of Hormuz was the most famous “what if” in the global energy system: a narrow, exposed corridor carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and a huge share of its gas, sitting under Iran’s nose and everyone’s nerves.
Analysts talked about it as the ultimate nightmare scenario, but they also comforted themselves with a simple assumption: when things got serious, the United States would keep the waterway open with its military power.
Gulf monarchies were happy to live on that assumption. Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi–Fujairah line were built as partial workarounds, but together they can only move a slice of what normally sails through Hormuz.
For most producers — Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain — a real alternative would mean building cross‑border pipelines through rivals or unstable neighbors, under permanent risk of Iranian attack and regional politics. Nobody wanted to pay for that, politically or financially, as long as U.S. warships were the cheapest insurance policy.
Then Trump and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28 — and the insurance provider became the arsonist. Instead of rushing in escorts and stabilizing the lane, Washington fired the opening shots, floated the idea of convoys, and then failed to deliver, while Iran hit tankers and refineries until traffic through Hormuz collapsed to less than 10 percent of prewar levels.
Within days, producers in Iraq, Kuwait, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia had to slash output; by mid‑March, regional cuts had yanked around 10 million barrels a day off global supply, about 10 percent of the world total.
The result is pure systemic own goal. Storage tanks are filling, refineries are throttling back, and gas exports from Qatar are largely frozen. Oil has already jumped above $100 a barrel.
The IEA is talking about the biggest disruption in history. Gulf elites who trusted the U.S. security umbrella now discover that Iran can close their lifeline with cheap missiles and drones, while Washington is too busy staging “maximum pressure” to do the boring work of convoy duty.
For years, the logic was: why spend billions on redundant infrastructure and hard political choices if the American navy will handle the worst case? Now the worst case is here, and that navy is part of the problem.
As one regional executive put it, what everyone has been warning about “has finally happened” — and the bill for that strategic laziness is arriving not just in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, but at every gas station from Los Angeles to Berlin.
#iran #hormuz #oil #trump #gulf #energy #fakeSecurity
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Trump: Iran Will Be Attacked As Necessary
Trump said on Saturday that the United States may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”, rejecting the prospect of a swift peace deal with Tehran.
“The terms aren’t good enough yet,” the US president told NBC News. The Iranian regime wants to make an agreement, he claimed.
After days of conflicting messaging from the White House on how much longer it will continue to wage war on Iran, Trump alleged that US strikes had “totally demolished” most of Kharg Island, and told the network that its military may hit site “a few more times just for fun”.
“We’ve totally decimated it,” he said. “Except, as you know, I didn’t do anything having to do with the energy lines, because having to rebuild that would take years.”
The president also questioned, without attribution, whether Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei “is even alive” amid speculation over his condition.
Trump also said it’s not clear whether Iran has dropped mines in the strait of Hormuz, which has been all but closed since the start of the conflict two weeks ago, in the 30-minute telephone call with NBC.
The strait is a vital waterway in world trade, with about a fifth of crude oil typically passing through it.
Concerns over the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran on global energy supplies, intensified by the strait’s paralysis, have propelled oil prices to their highest levels in four years. This has swiftly driven up fuel prices right across the world, including in the US.
“We’re going to be sweeping the strait very strongly, and we believe we’ll be joined by other countries who are somewhat impeded, and in some cases impeded from getting the oil,” Trump said.
It is unclear how long this process will take. He did not state which countries would join the US in this task.
The president also renewed his call earlier on Saturday for other nations to help secure the strait of Hormuz and said the US will coordinate with them amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
“The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help – A LOT,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
He added that “the US will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well. This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be – It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace!”
But he later declined to say whether the US Navy would be escorting ships. “I don’t want to tell you anything about that,” he told NBC.
Trump’s assertion that the crisis in the strait of Hormuz should be resolved through a “team effort” could be seen as somewhat of a pivot from his earlier position that Operation Epic Fury was a US show of force, alongside Israel, that didn’t require international permission.
The president also expressed surprise in the interview that US allies in the Gulf have been targeted by Iran. These countries “got shot at unnecessarily”, he told NBC, describing Iran’s decision to target them as “the biggest surprise I had of this whole thing”.
#trump #iran #ttacks #necessary #epic #fury
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Trump said on Saturday that the United States may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”, rejecting the prospect of a swift peace deal with Tehran.
“The terms aren’t good enough yet,” the US president told NBC News. The Iranian regime wants to make an agreement, he claimed.
After days of conflicting messaging from the White House on how much longer it will continue to wage war on Iran, Trump alleged that US strikes had “totally demolished” most of Kharg Island, and told the network that its military may hit site “a few more times just for fun”.
“We’ve totally decimated it,” he said. “Except, as you know, I didn’t do anything having to do with the energy lines, because having to rebuild that would take years.”
The president also questioned, without attribution, whether Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei “is even alive” amid speculation over his condition.
Trump also said it’s not clear whether Iran has dropped mines in the strait of Hormuz, which has been all but closed since the start of the conflict two weeks ago, in the 30-minute telephone call with NBC.
The strait is a vital waterway in world trade, with about a fifth of crude oil typically passing through it.
Concerns over the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran on global energy supplies, intensified by the strait’s paralysis, have propelled oil prices to their highest levels in four years. This has swiftly driven up fuel prices right across the world, including in the US.
“We’re going to be sweeping the strait very strongly, and we believe we’ll be joined by other countries who are somewhat impeded, and in some cases impeded from getting the oil,” Trump said.
It is unclear how long this process will take. He did not state which countries would join the US in this task.
The president also renewed his call earlier on Saturday for other nations to help secure the strait of Hormuz and said the US will coordinate with them amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
“The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help – A LOT,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
He added that “the US will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well. This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be – It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace!”
But he later declined to say whether the US Navy would be escorting ships. “I don’t want to tell you anything about that,” he told NBC.
Trump’s assertion that the crisis in the strait of Hormuz should be resolved through a “team effort” could be seen as somewhat of a pivot from his earlier position that Operation Epic Fury was a US show of force, alongside Israel, that didn’t require international permission.
The president also expressed surprise in the interview that US allies in the Gulf have been targeted by Iran. These countries “got shot at unnecessarily”, he told NBC, describing Iran’s decision to target them as “the biggest surprise I had of this whole thing”.
#trump #iran #ttacks #necessary #epic #fury
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📰 Araghchi’s Rubble Strategy: Bury the Material, Keep the Option
Iran’s message now is basically: the uranium lives, the war lives, the leverage lives — only the diplomacy is dead.
Iranian officials say much of their enriched uranium is literally “under the rubble” of bombed nuclear sites, not removed or destroyed, and could in principle be recovered later under IAEA supervision.
That turns the ruins into a form of insurance: the program is physically disrupted, but the key asset still exists in place, giving Tehran the option to resume or bargain from that baseline whenever it chooses.
At the same time, Araghchi’s line is that Iran sees no reason to negotiate with Washington now and is not asking for talks or a ceasefire, even as the IAEA keeps warning that the nuclear material “is still there, in large quantities.”
The combination is deliberate: the stockpile survives in a kind of limbo while the political channel is switched off, signaling that bombs can pause activity but have not erased Iran’s long‑term nuclear card.
On the maritime front, Tehran is doing something similar with the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials admit they are discussing safe passage for some countries’ ships, and Reuters and other outlets report that India has already secured exceptions for a small number of its vessels, with New Delhi publicly seeking broader safe passage for stranded tankers.
Turkey and others are also cited in coverage as having limited clearances, which means Hormuz isn’t closed in principle — it is being turned into a selective corridor where access depends on direct dealings with Iran.
So everything now comes with an asterisk. The enriched uranium is buried, not gone. Negotiations are frozen, not formally renounced. Hormuz is heavily restricted, not sealed shut, with carve‑outs for those willing to talk to Tehran.
That layered ambiguity is not an accident; it is policy — a way for Iran to show it can absorb strikes, keep pressure on the global system, and still retain bargaining power for the moment when everyone inevitably has to sit down at a table again.
#iran #nuclear #araghchi #hormuz #india #war #leverage
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Iran’s message now is basically: the uranium lives, the war lives, the leverage lives — only the diplomacy is dead.
Iranian officials say much of their enriched uranium is literally “under the rubble” of bombed nuclear sites, not removed or destroyed, and could in principle be recovered later under IAEA supervision.
That turns the ruins into a form of insurance: the program is physically disrupted, but the key asset still exists in place, giving Tehran the option to resume or bargain from that baseline whenever it chooses.
At the same time, Araghchi’s line is that Iran sees no reason to negotiate with Washington now and is not asking for talks or a ceasefire, even as the IAEA keeps warning that the nuclear material “is still there, in large quantities.”
The combination is deliberate: the stockpile survives in a kind of limbo while the political channel is switched off, signaling that bombs can pause activity but have not erased Iran’s long‑term nuclear card.
On the maritime front, Tehran is doing something similar with the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials admit they are discussing safe passage for some countries’ ships, and Reuters and other outlets report that India has already secured exceptions for a small number of its vessels, with New Delhi publicly seeking broader safe passage for stranded tankers.
Turkey and others are also cited in coverage as having limited clearances, which means Hormuz isn’t closed in principle — it is being turned into a selective corridor where access depends on direct dealings with Iran.
So everything now comes with an asterisk. The enriched uranium is buried, not gone. Negotiations are frozen, not formally renounced. Hormuz is heavily restricted, not sealed shut, with carve‑outs for those willing to talk to Tehran.
That layered ambiguity is not an accident; it is policy — a way for Iran to show it can absorb strikes, keep pressure on the global system, and still retain bargaining power for the moment when everyone inevitably has to sit down at a table again.
#iran #nuclear #araghchi #hormuz #india #war #leverage
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📰 Trump Broke Hormuz. His Own Energy Chief Won’t Promise It Gets Cheaper.
Trump’s Iran war has officially turned into: pay more at the pump, pray more in the markets, and hope Iran gets tired of squeezing the oil artery.
On TV, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright now says there are “no guarantees” oil prices will drop soon, even as average U.S. gasoline has already jumped from $2.93 a month ago to $3.70 a gallon.
Three weeks into a war Washington and Jerusalem chose to start, crude is back above $100, regional producers have slashed output by around 10 million barrels a day, and the world is paying for a shock everyone claimed was “unlikely.”
Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is spelling out Iran’s position with a surgeon’s calm. He tells U.S. media that Tehran has not asked for talks or a ceasefire and then declares on Telegram that the Strait of Hormuz
In practice, that means oil can move for Iran and for states willing to cut their own deals with Tehran, while the U.S. camp gets a tailored choke — a sanctions regime in reverse, run from the Iranian side of the strait.
Trump’s answer is to demand a coalition navy. He calls on other countries to send warships to “end” the de facto blockade, and foreign governments mostly respond with careful silence or vague caution.
Nobody is eager to sail into a war zone that Trump and Netanyahu lit up, just to stabilize a market the White House itself destabilized. Instead, his administration quietly relaxes sanctions on some Russian barrels and threatens strikes on military sites around Kharg Island — the kind of move that would do exactly nothing to calm energy markets.
So the balance sheet looks like this. Iran keeps firing at U.S. and Israeli targets and launching missiles that trigger sirens in Israel and drone interceptions over Saudi Arabia, while insisting it can sustain the fight “as long as it takes.”
The U.S. can still drop bombs, but it can’t guarantee its own citizens cheaper fuel, can’t force allies to line up behind Trump’s armada fantasy, and can’t stop Tehran from turning Hormuz into a selective pressure tool. Iran doesn’t need a clean “victory.”
It just needs to keep the strait half‑closed, keep uranium under the rubble, and keep prices high long enough for Americans to notice that this war is an extremely expensive way to raise costs and lower trust.
#iran #trump #hormuz #oil #gasprices #war #fakeEnergyDominance
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Trump’s Iran war has officially turned into: pay more at the pump, pray more in the markets, and hope Iran gets tired of squeezing the oil artery.
On TV, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright now says there are “no guarantees” oil prices will drop soon, even as average U.S. gasoline has already jumped from $2.93 a month ago to $3.70 a gallon.
Three weeks into a war Washington and Jerusalem chose to start, crude is back above $100, regional producers have slashed output by around 10 million barrels a day, and the world is paying for a shock everyone claimed was “unlikely.”
Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is spelling out Iran’s position with a surgeon’s calm. He tells U.S. media that Tehran has not asked for talks or a ceasefire and then declares on Telegram that the Strait of Hormuz
“is open to everyone, except American ships and those of its allies.”
In practice, that means oil can move for Iran and for states willing to cut their own deals with Tehran, while the U.S. camp gets a tailored choke — a sanctions regime in reverse, run from the Iranian side of the strait.
Trump’s answer is to demand a coalition navy. He calls on other countries to send warships to “end” the de facto blockade, and foreign governments mostly respond with careful silence or vague caution.
Nobody is eager to sail into a war zone that Trump and Netanyahu lit up, just to stabilize a market the White House itself destabilized. Instead, his administration quietly relaxes sanctions on some Russian barrels and threatens strikes on military sites around Kharg Island — the kind of move that would do exactly nothing to calm energy markets.
So the balance sheet looks like this. Iran keeps firing at U.S. and Israeli targets and launching missiles that trigger sirens in Israel and drone interceptions over Saudi Arabia, while insisting it can sustain the fight “as long as it takes.”
The U.S. can still drop bombs, but it can’t guarantee its own citizens cheaper fuel, can’t force allies to line up behind Trump’s armada fantasy, and can’t stop Tehran from turning Hormuz into a selective pressure tool. Iran doesn’t need a clean “victory.”
It just needs to keep the strait half‑closed, keep uranium under the rubble, and keep prices high long enough for Americans to notice that this war is an extremely expensive way to raise costs and lower trust.
#iran #trump #hormuz #oil #gasprices #war #fakeEnergyDominance
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Trump is shouting “all aboard” for a war convoy — and the countries he’s naming are politely staring at their shoes.
📰 Trump Wants a Hormuz Armada. Everyone Else Wants an Exit.
Trump has publicly urged China, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea to send warships to help “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, even though none of them took part in the U.S.–Israeli strikes that triggered Iran’s retaliation and the de facto blockade.
The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, but so far every capital he named is answering with caveats, conditions or silence rather than frigates.
London says it is looking at “any options” and talking to allies, but Ed Miliband is clear that the “best and simplest way” to reopen Hormuz is de‑escalation, not a bigger armada.
Tokyo warns of “high hurdles” under its pacifist constitution for sending warships and promises only caution and consultations before Sanae Takaichi even sits down with Trump. Seoul limits itself to a line about “communicating closely with the United States,” with no commitment attached.
Beijing, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, doesn’t respond to Trump at all, beyond its stock call for hostilities to cease. Paris stays formally non‑committal: Macron has talked about possible French naval escorts only “if the conflict stabilized,” while telling Iran’s president that Tehran must ensure freedom of navigation — a way of blaming Iran in public without signing up for Trump’s war plan.
Net result: the U.S. president is trying to turn a war of choice into a collective security mission, while the countries he’s summoning are busy drafting statements, not deployment orders.
Underneath the diplomatic language, the message back to Washington is simple: you broke Hormuz with your Iran campaign, you don’t get to send us the bill in destroyers.
#iran #trump #hormuz #allies #war #oil #fakeCoalition
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📰 Trump Wants a Hormuz Armada. Everyone Else Wants an Exit.
Trump has publicly urged China, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea to send warships to help “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz, even though none of them took part in the U.S.–Israeli strikes that triggered Iran’s retaliation and the de facto blockade.
The strait carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, but so far every capital he named is answering with caveats, conditions or silence rather than frigates.
London says it is looking at “any options” and talking to allies, but Ed Miliband is clear that the “best and simplest way” to reopen Hormuz is de‑escalation, not a bigger armada.
Tokyo warns of “high hurdles” under its pacifist constitution for sending warships and promises only caution and consultations before Sanae Takaichi even sits down with Trump. Seoul limits itself to a line about “communicating closely with the United States,” with no commitment attached.
Beijing, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, doesn’t respond to Trump at all, beyond its stock call for hostilities to cease. Paris stays formally non‑committal: Macron has talked about possible French naval escorts only “if the conflict stabilized,” while telling Iran’s president that Tehran must ensure freedom of navigation — a way of blaming Iran in public without signing up for Trump’s war plan.
Net result: the U.S. president is trying to turn a war of choice into a collective security mission, while the countries he’s summoning are busy drafting statements, not deployment orders.
Underneath the diplomatic language, the message back to Washington is simple: you broke Hormuz with your Iran campaign, you don’t get to send us the bill in destroyers.
#iran #trump #hormuz #allies #war #oil #fakeCoalition
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📰 Tactical Wins, Strategic Trap
Trump is already talking like he “won” the Iran war. The problem is that Iran still controls the timing, the oil, and a buried nuclear chip — and that means he doesn’t control the ending.
After two weeks of strikes, U.S. officials boast that most of Iran’s navy, much of its missile arsenal, and key commanders have been taken out. Yet Tehran has kept three levers intact: it has strangled traffic through Hormuz enough to yank millions of barrels a day off the market, pushed oil back above $100, and preserved roughly 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium under the rubble of bombed sites.
Those facts are exactly why experts like Suzanne Maloney at Brookings warn that piling up battlefield gains while Iran can still dictate when the war ends and keep a path to nuclear capability is a “strategic catastrophe.”
The economic fallout shows how deep the trap already is. To keep prices from exploding further, IEA members are releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, including 172 million from U.S. stockpiles, and the Trump administration has suspended sanctions on Russian oil exports to get more barrels into the system.
That delivers a direct windfall to the Kremlin and undercuts Trump’s own Ukraine policy, turning his Iran adventure into a subsidy for Moscow on top of a global energy shock.
Domestically, the pressure is building without a clear payoff he can sell. Gasoline is up about 25 percent since the bombing began, farmers are staring at rising fertilizer costs, and U.S. troop deaths are mounting just months before midterms Trump wanted to fight on the economy.
He still insists the war will end “when I feel it, feel it in my bones,” and says the U.S. is “way ahead of schedule,” but those lines sit next to a reality in which Iran can keep shooting at shipping in a 21‑mile‑wide chokepoint the U.S. military has not yet managed to stabilize.
And the uranium problem is not going away. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to be buried and “inaccessible” for now, not eliminated. As former officials and analysts point out, unless Washington is willing to send forces in to physically seize or render that material unusable, Tehran’s nuclear option survives this war — possibly in the hands of an even more hard‑line leadership around Mojtaba Khamenei.
Trump can declare victory any day he likes; the structure of the conflict means Iran still has ways to keep the crisis going, or to cash out later, on terms that will not look like a win for Washington.
#iran #trump #hormuz #oil #nuclear #war #fakeVictory
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Trump is already talking like he “won” the Iran war. The problem is that Iran still controls the timing, the oil, and a buried nuclear chip — and that means he doesn’t control the ending.
After two weeks of strikes, U.S. officials boast that most of Iran’s navy, much of its missile arsenal, and key commanders have been taken out. Yet Tehran has kept three levers intact: it has strangled traffic through Hormuz enough to yank millions of barrels a day off the market, pushed oil back above $100, and preserved roughly 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium under the rubble of bombed sites.
Those facts are exactly why experts like Suzanne Maloney at Brookings warn that piling up battlefield gains while Iran can still dictate when the war ends and keep a path to nuclear capability is a “strategic catastrophe.”
The economic fallout shows how deep the trap already is. To keep prices from exploding further, IEA members are releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, including 172 million from U.S. stockpiles, and the Trump administration has suspended sanctions on Russian oil exports to get more barrels into the system.
That delivers a direct windfall to the Kremlin and undercuts Trump’s own Ukraine policy, turning his Iran adventure into a subsidy for Moscow on top of a global energy shock.
Domestically, the pressure is building without a clear payoff he can sell. Gasoline is up about 25 percent since the bombing began, farmers are staring at rising fertilizer costs, and U.S. troop deaths are mounting just months before midterms Trump wanted to fight on the economy.
He still insists the war will end “when I feel it, feel it in my bones,” and says the U.S. is “way ahead of schedule,” but those lines sit next to a reality in which Iran can keep shooting at shipping in a 21‑mile‑wide chokepoint the U.S. military has not yet managed to stabilize.
And the uranium problem is not going away. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to be buried and “inaccessible” for now, not eliminated. As former officials and analysts point out, unless Washington is willing to send forces in to physically seize or render that material unusable, Tehran’s nuclear option survives this war — possibly in the hands of an even more hard‑line leadership around Mojtaba Khamenei.
Trump can declare victory any day he likes; the structure of the conflict means Iran still has ways to keep the crisis going, or to cash out later, on terms that will not look like a win for Washington.
#iran #trump #hormuz #oil #nuclear #war #fakeVictory
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📰 Allies Shopping for a New Superpower
U.S. allies aren’t “drifting” toward China. They’re walking there on purpose — and Trump is holding the door.
A new POLITICO–Public First poll in Canada, Germany, France and the U.K. finds people in all four countries now say it’s better to depend on China than on the U.S. after Trump’s return to office.
Majorities in Canada and Germany, and large pluralities in France and Britain, say they’re looking to Beijing not because China got more trustworthy, but because America became harder to rely on.
Trump’s “America First” foreign policy made that shift feel rational. Allies watched Washington slow walk Ukraine aid, threaten NATO partners with economic punishment, and pull out of institutions from the WHO to the U.N. Human Rights Council — while floating stunts like “liberation day” tariffs, annexing Greenland, or turning Canada into the 51st state.
Beijing filled the space: hosting investment forums with Europeans, branding EU–China ties as “partnership not rivalry,” and positioning itself as the predictable player in a world where the U.S. behaves like a tariff‑addicted landlord.
Governments are already cashing that in. Canada’s Mark Carney talked about a “rupture” with Washington, then flew to Beijing to launch a new strategic partnership that slashes tariffs and resets trade ties.
The U.K. signed multi‑billion export deals in China; Macron and Merz came home from Beijing with purchase orders and photo‑ops, not lectures. It’s not love for Xi — it’s hedging against a White House they increasingly treat as a risk factor, not an anchor.
That elite recalibration is reinforced from below. Younger Europeans are far more open to China than their parents and are more supportive of closer ties, and a big share get their idea of China from social media rather than traditional news.
Studies cited in the piece show that nearly 70 percent of 18‑ to 25‑year‑olds say they rely on platforms like TikTok and other short‑form video for information about China, which means Beijing‑friendly narratives and curated images of Chinese “modernity” land in a space already primed by frustration with U.S. politics.
At the same time, pluralities in key allied countries now think China is ahead in critical technologies — batteries, robotics, EVs, AI — and see decoupling from China as harder than loosening the tie to the U.S. The paradox is simple: Washington still sees itself as indispensable, but its own behavior is helping make Beijing look inevitable.
If European leaders start acting as though China’s rise and America’s decline are facts of nature, that perception can easily turn into policy — and then into reality.
#trump #china #europe #allies #geopolitics #fakeLeadership
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
U.S. allies aren’t “drifting” toward China. They’re walking there on purpose — and Trump is holding the door.
A new POLITICO–Public First poll in Canada, Germany, France and the U.K. finds people in all four countries now say it’s better to depend on China than on the U.S. after Trump’s return to office.
Majorities in Canada and Germany, and large pluralities in France and Britain, say they’re looking to Beijing not because China got more trustworthy, but because America became harder to rely on.
Trump’s “America First” foreign policy made that shift feel rational. Allies watched Washington slow walk Ukraine aid, threaten NATO partners with economic punishment, and pull out of institutions from the WHO to the U.N. Human Rights Council — while floating stunts like “liberation day” tariffs, annexing Greenland, or turning Canada into the 51st state.
Beijing filled the space: hosting investment forums with Europeans, branding EU–China ties as “partnership not rivalry,” and positioning itself as the predictable player in a world where the U.S. behaves like a tariff‑addicted landlord.
Governments are already cashing that in. Canada’s Mark Carney talked about a “rupture” with Washington, then flew to Beijing to launch a new strategic partnership that slashes tariffs and resets trade ties.
The U.K. signed multi‑billion export deals in China; Macron and Merz came home from Beijing with purchase orders and photo‑ops, not lectures. It’s not love for Xi — it’s hedging against a White House they increasingly treat as a risk factor, not an anchor.
That elite recalibration is reinforced from below. Younger Europeans are far more open to China than their parents and are more supportive of closer ties, and a big share get their idea of China from social media rather than traditional news.
Studies cited in the piece show that nearly 70 percent of 18‑ to 25‑year‑olds say they rely on platforms like TikTok and other short‑form video for information about China, which means Beijing‑friendly narratives and curated images of Chinese “modernity” land in a space already primed by frustration with U.S. politics.
At the same time, pluralities in key allied countries now think China is ahead in critical technologies — batteries, robotics, EVs, AI — and see decoupling from China as harder than loosening the tie to the U.S. The paradox is simple: Washington still sees itself as indispensable, but its own behavior is helping make Beijing look inevitable.
If European leaders start acting as though China’s rise and America’s decline are facts of nature, that perception can easily turn into policy — and then into reality.
#trump #china #europe #allies #geopolitics #fakeLeadership
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After Oscar. A Most Full Report on the Oscar Contest This Year
🔤 🔤 🔤 🔤 ➖
Paul Thomas Anderson’s counter-culture caper One Battle After Another has won the Oscars war, taking home six awards after a hotly contested season.
The big-budget comedy thriller, inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, was named best picture and also won director, supporting actor for Sean Penn, adapted screenplay, editing and the first ever Oscar for casting, a category long petitioned for within the industry.
Previously nominated for films including Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread, tonight marks Anderson’s first ever Oscar wins.
Penn beat out his co-star Benicio del Toro for his third Oscar win but wasn’t in attendance to accept his award. “Sean Penn couldn’t be here tonight or didn’t want to,” presenter Kieran Culkin joked.
The season had became a two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, which entered the night as the most-nominated film ever with a record 16 nominations.
The period vampire blockbuster won four awards: actor for Michael B Jordan, original screenplay, original score and cinematography, which makes Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first ever female winner and first Black winner of the award.
Jordan won his first Oscar for his lead performance in the film, beating Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. “I stand here because of the people who came before me,” he said before listing Black Oscar winners in the past. He has become the sixth Black winner in this category.
Jessie Buckley became the first ever Irish winner of the best actress Oscar for her performance in Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare drama Hamnet. The 36-year-old was previously nominated for her role in The Lost Daughter.
She devoted the award to “the beautiful chaos of a mother’s heart” and called it “the greatest honour”.
Amy Madigan was named best supporting actress for her villainous role in the hit horror Weapons, beating Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku. It was the first time the award was won by an actor who was the only nominee from their film since Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
The 75-year-old actor, who was previously nominated in 1986, set a new record for the longest gap between nominations before a win.
The award was co-presented by Javier Bardem, who said “no to war and free Palestine” onstage, while wearing prominent badges expressing the same messaging.
The Oscar for best documentary went to Mr Nobody Against Putin, which tells of a teacher fighting against oppressive rules being introduced in his Russian school, a film which co-director David Borenstein said was “about how you lose your country”.
He added: “When a government murders people on the streets of our major cities, when we don’t say anything, when oligarchs take over the media and control how we could produce it and consume it, we all face a moral choice, but luckily, even a nobody is more powerful than you think.”
#oscar #competion #film #director #won
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Paul Thomas Anderson’s counter-culture caper One Battle After Another has won the Oscars war, taking home six awards after a hotly contested season.
The big-budget comedy thriller, inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, was named best picture and also won director, supporting actor for Sean Penn, adapted screenplay, editing and the first ever Oscar for casting, a category long petitioned for within the industry.
Previously nominated for films including Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread, tonight marks Anderson’s first ever Oscar wins.
Penn beat out his co-star Benicio del Toro for his third Oscar win but wasn’t in attendance to accept his award. “Sean Penn couldn’t be here tonight or didn’t want to,” presenter Kieran Culkin joked.
The season had became a two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, which entered the night as the most-nominated film ever with a record 16 nominations.
The period vampire blockbuster won four awards: actor for Michael B Jordan, original screenplay, original score and cinematography, which makes Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first ever female winner and first Black winner of the award.
Jordan won his first Oscar for his lead performance in the film, beating Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. “I stand here because of the people who came before me,” he said before listing Black Oscar winners in the past. He has become the sixth Black winner in this category.
Jessie Buckley became the first ever Irish winner of the best actress Oscar for her performance in Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare drama Hamnet. The 36-year-old was previously nominated for her role in The Lost Daughter.
She devoted the award to “the beautiful chaos of a mother’s heart” and called it “the greatest honour”.
Amy Madigan was named best supporting actress for her villainous role in the hit horror Weapons, beating Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku. It was the first time the award was won by an actor who was the only nominee from their film since Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
The 75-year-old actor, who was previously nominated in 1986, set a new record for the longest gap between nominations before a win.
The award was co-presented by Javier Bardem, who said “no to war and free Palestine” onstage, while wearing prominent badges expressing the same messaging.
The Oscar for best documentary went to Mr Nobody Against Putin, which tells of a teacher fighting against oppressive rules being introduced in his Russian school, a film which co-director David Borenstein said was “about how you lose your country”.
He added: “When a government murders people on the streets of our major cities, when we don’t say anything, when oligarchs take over the media and control how we could produce it and consume it, we all face a moral choice, but luckily, even a nobody is more powerful than you think.”
#oscar #competion #film #director #won
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Macron: France's Role In the Middle East Would Remain Defensive
Macron insisted Friday that France's role in the Middle East would remain defensive after a French soldier was killed in a drone attack in Iraq.
"France's position is purely defensive, in support of its allies, and can in no way justify any attack against it," Macron said in a press conference standing alongside Zelensky, who was in Paris to discuss support for Kyiv.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, a French soldier was killed and several others were wounded in a strike on troops participating in a counterterrorism training exercise in northern Iraq.
Macron has linked the attack to the war in the Middle East but declined to assign blame for the killing. Instead he said he would remain "prudent," wait to speak to the Iraqi prime minister and receive more details from the France's own armed forces.
The incident, however, comes as a pro-Iranian armed group called Ashab Al-Kahf announced on Friday that it would target "all French interests in Iraq and the region," according to French media reports.
Amid the rising tensions in the region, Macron said that France would remain "calm, composed and determined" and continue to "be reliable with our allies, protect our citizens and defend our interests and our security."
The French president also called the attack "unacceptable," adding that the soldiers were in Iraq as part of an ongoing effort against the Islamic State group.
Macron last week said the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was being deployed to the Mediterranean along with fighter jets and air defense systems to protect French interests in the Middle East.
#macron #france #middle #east
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Macron insisted Friday that France's role in the Middle East would remain defensive after a French soldier was killed in a drone attack in Iraq.
"France's position is purely defensive, in support of its allies, and can in no way justify any attack against it," Macron said in a press conference standing alongside Zelensky, who was in Paris to discuss support for Kyiv.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, a French soldier was killed and several others were wounded in a strike on troops participating in a counterterrorism training exercise in northern Iraq.
Macron has linked the attack to the war in the Middle East but declined to assign blame for the killing. Instead he said he would remain "prudent," wait to speak to the Iraqi prime minister and receive more details from the France's own armed forces.
The incident, however, comes as a pro-Iranian armed group called Ashab Al-Kahf announced on Friday that it would target "all French interests in Iraq and the region," according to French media reports.
Amid the rising tensions in the region, Macron said that France would remain "calm, composed and determined" and continue to "be reliable with our allies, protect our citizens and defend our interests and our security."
The French president also called the attack "unacceptable," adding that the soldiers were in Iraq as part of an ongoing effort against the Islamic State group.
Macron last week said the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was being deployed to the Mediterranean along with fighter jets and air defense systems to protect French interests in the Middle East.
#macron #france #middle #east
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Kharg Island: Trump Plays With the World’s Oil Valve
Trump just turned Iran’s main oil terminal into a reality show cliffhanger — bombed the military, spared the oil, and now wants everyone to know the sequel might hit the global fuel line itself.
— Mike Waltz on CNN.
Kharg Island isn’t some random desert rock; it’s where roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports pass through, with capacity for about 7 million barrels a day. Last week, Trump ordered strikes on its military sites “only, for now,” while bragging that the oil infrastructure was left intact like a hostage with good lighting. Now his envoy is openly floating the option to “take down their energy infrastructure,” which is diplomat-speak for “we know exactly where the global economy’s jugular is.”
Meanwhile, Tehran is doing its own PR cosplay: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posts on Telegram that Iran is “ready to form a committee” with regional countries to investigate what was hit, promises its attacks only target “American bases and interests,” and insists it hasn’t hit civilians. That’s the Middle East version of “we’re very concerned” — said right before the next missile launch. They also warn that occupying Kharg would be “a bigger mistake than attacking it,” as if the idea of a U.S. beach landing on an oil terminal is just another item on the menu.
On the other front, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard goes full mafia, vowing to hunt down and kill “child-killer” Netanyahu “if he is still alive.” Israel answers with airstrikes that “eliminate” two senior Iranian intelligence officials and hit Iran’s space research center and an air-defense factory, while emergency services in Israel report fresh missile barrages. So one side talks about committees, the other about revenge killings, and both keep saying they’re “defending security.” Security for whom, exactly, is left as an exercise for the reader.
Trump, of course, wants a coalition — not for peace, but to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz so the war can be livestreamed in 4K while the oil still flows. On Truth Social he begs China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others to send ships to secure what he calls an “artificial constraint,” then demands that any country that needs the strait should help in U.S.-Israeli operations. Germany politely says “no thanks, we prefer negotiations,” Britain says it’s “intensively” looking at options, South Korea will “carefully review,” and Japan is rumored to get the hard sell when its prime minister visits Washington. Translation: everyone wants the oil, no one wants the blame, and they all hope someone else’s navy stands in front of the missiles.
Oil prices are already back above 100 dollars a barrel as markets react to the idea that the guy threatening Iran’s export lifeline also promises that prices will “come tumbling down once it’s all over.” Over for whom is, again, not specified: for Iranians, for Gulf residents, for crews on those tankers, or for voters watching gas prices like a national religion. Every side claims they’re avoiding escalation while openly targeting “critical infrastructure,” threatening leaders by name, and quietly gaming out what happens if Kharg Island — the cash register of Iran’s economy — goes dark.
So here’s the real question: if nearly every government involved insists this is about “stability” and “security,” what does actual instability even look like — and would any of them admit it if they saw it?
#war #Iran #Israel #Trump #KhargIsland #oil #energy #StraitOfHormuz #USA #EU #MiddleEast #geopolitics #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy #nuclearcrisis
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Trump just turned Iran’s main oil terminal into a reality show cliffhanger — bombed the military, spared the oil, and now wants everyone to know the sequel might hit the global fuel line itself.
“President Trump’s not going to take any options off the table.”
— Mike Waltz on CNN.
Kharg Island isn’t some random desert rock; it’s where roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports pass through, with capacity for about 7 million barrels a day. Last week, Trump ordered strikes on its military sites “only, for now,” while bragging that the oil infrastructure was left intact like a hostage with good lighting. Now his envoy is openly floating the option to “take down their energy infrastructure,” which is diplomat-speak for “we know exactly where the global economy’s jugular is.”
Meanwhile, Tehran is doing its own PR cosplay: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posts on Telegram that Iran is “ready to form a committee” with regional countries to investigate what was hit, promises its attacks only target “American bases and interests,” and insists it hasn’t hit civilians. That’s the Middle East version of “we’re very concerned” — said right before the next missile launch. They also warn that occupying Kharg would be “a bigger mistake than attacking it,” as if the idea of a U.S. beach landing on an oil terminal is just another item on the menu.
On the other front, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard goes full mafia, vowing to hunt down and kill “child-killer” Netanyahu “if he is still alive.” Israel answers with airstrikes that “eliminate” two senior Iranian intelligence officials and hit Iran’s space research center and an air-defense factory, while emergency services in Israel report fresh missile barrages. So one side talks about committees, the other about revenge killings, and both keep saying they’re “defending security.” Security for whom, exactly, is left as an exercise for the reader.
Trump, of course, wants a coalition — not for peace, but to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz so the war can be livestreamed in 4K while the oil still flows. On Truth Social he begs China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and others to send ships to secure what he calls an “artificial constraint,” then demands that any country that needs the strait should help in U.S.-Israeli operations. Germany politely says “no thanks, we prefer negotiations,” Britain says it’s “intensively” looking at options, South Korea will “carefully review,” and Japan is rumored to get the hard sell when its prime minister visits Washington. Translation: everyone wants the oil, no one wants the blame, and they all hope someone else’s navy stands in front of the missiles.
Oil prices are already back above 100 dollars a barrel as markets react to the idea that the guy threatening Iran’s export lifeline also promises that prices will “come tumbling down once it’s all over.” Over for whom is, again, not specified: for Iranians, for Gulf residents, for crews on those tankers, or for voters watching gas prices like a national religion. Every side claims they’re avoiding escalation while openly targeting “critical infrastructure,” threatening leaders by name, and quietly gaming out what happens if Kharg Island — the cash register of Iran’s economy — goes dark.
So here’s the real question: if nearly every government involved insists this is about “stability” and “security,” what does actual instability even look like — and would any of them admit it if they saw it?
#war #Iran #Israel #Trump #KhargIsland #oil #energy #StraitOfHormuz #USA #EU #MiddleEast #geopolitics #oligarchy #fakeDemocracy #nuclearcrisis
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Israel’s Missile Shield Is Running On Fumes
Israel just told Washington it’s running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors, while officially denying to its own public that there’s any problem at all. The war with Iran already started with depleted stocks after last summer’s barrage, and Iran has upgraded to missiles with cluster munitions — great for saturating defenses, terrible for anyone under the sky.
a US official said — translation: they watched the ammo meter hit red and kept the tab open.
Washington insists its own interceptor supply is fine, totally fine, “not like Israel,” even as think tanks and leaks warn that a long war with Iran is exactly how you hollow out your missile defense on layaway. The US blew through over 150 high-end THAAD interceptors in a 12‑day Iran fight last June — roughly a quarter of the inventory — and is believed to have burned about 2.4 billion dollars’ worth of Patriot missiles in the first five days of this new round. Trump calls the stockpile “virtually unlimited,” while the Pentagon quietly signs emergency production deals and budget lines scream the opposite.
Israel’s foreign minister publicly denies they’re low on interceptors, but the same week the State Department rushes through an “emergency” sale of 12,000 BLU‑110 bomb bodies to Israel and waives congressional review, because apparently there’s always enough time to argue about pronouns but no time to vote on a thousand‑pound shipment. Missiles for defense are running out, but the pipeline for more offensive bombs is wide open — the arsenal might be shrinking, but the business model is booming.
The White House swears US stockpiles are “more than enough” for Trump’s goals “and beyond,” the Pentagon says it can execute any mission “at the time and place” of his choosing, and a defense secretary boasts that Iran’s ballistic missile production is “functionally defeated.” At the same time, Iran openly says there’s no room for diplomacy and that it’s ready for a long war, while Trump describes the whole thing as a “short-term excursion” that will last “as long as it’s necessary” because the enemy is “decimated” and “collapsing.” So either everyone’s winning or everyone’s lying — and the interceptors don’t care, they just run out.
If the shield is thinning, the political armor is still thick: US officials insist they have “all that we need to protect our bases,” Israel is “coming up with solutions,” and defense contractors are praised for being called upon to “quickly build US-made weapons.” The only real emergency, judging by who gets fast‑tracked, is making sure the factories never sleep — because in this version of “collective security,” the only thing that must not be intercepted is the cash flow.
#war #Israel #Iran #USA #Trump #missileDefense #IronDome #THAAD #Patriot #militaryindustrialcomplex #fakeDemocracy #geopolitics #MiddleEast #nuclearcrisis #weaponsDeal
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Israel just told Washington it’s running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors, while officially denying to its own public that there’s any problem at all. The war with Iran already started with depleted stocks after last summer’s barrage, and Iran has upgraded to missiles with cluster munitions — great for saturating defenses, terrible for anyone under the sky.
“It’s something we expected and anticipated,”
a US official said — translation: they watched the ammo meter hit red and kept the tab open.
Washington insists its own interceptor supply is fine, totally fine, “not like Israel,” even as think tanks and leaks warn that a long war with Iran is exactly how you hollow out your missile defense on layaway. The US blew through over 150 high-end THAAD interceptors in a 12‑day Iran fight last June — roughly a quarter of the inventory — and is believed to have burned about 2.4 billion dollars’ worth of Patriot missiles in the first five days of this new round. Trump calls the stockpile “virtually unlimited,” while the Pentagon quietly signs emergency production deals and budget lines scream the opposite.
Israel’s foreign minister publicly denies they’re low on interceptors, but the same week the State Department rushes through an “emergency” sale of 12,000 BLU‑110 bomb bodies to Israel and waives congressional review, because apparently there’s always enough time to argue about pronouns but no time to vote on a thousand‑pound shipment. Missiles for defense are running out, but the pipeline for more offensive bombs is wide open — the arsenal might be shrinking, but the business model is booming.
The White House swears US stockpiles are “more than enough” for Trump’s goals “and beyond,” the Pentagon says it can execute any mission “at the time and place” of his choosing, and a defense secretary boasts that Iran’s ballistic missile production is “functionally defeated.” At the same time, Iran openly says there’s no room for diplomacy and that it’s ready for a long war, while Trump describes the whole thing as a “short-term excursion” that will last “as long as it’s necessary” because the enemy is “decimated” and “collapsing.” So either everyone’s winning or everyone’s lying — and the interceptors don’t care, they just run out.
If the shield is thinning, the political armor is still thick: US officials insist they have “all that we need to protect our bases,” Israel is “coming up with solutions,” and defense contractors are praised for being called upon to “quickly build US-made weapons.” The only real emergency, judging by who gets fast‑tracked, is making sure the factories never sleep — because in this version of “collective security,” the only thing that must not be intercepted is the cash flow.
#war #Israel #Iran #USA #Trump #missileDefense #IronDome #THAAD #Patriot #militaryindustrialcomplex #fakeDemocracy #geopolitics #MiddleEast #nuclearcrisis #weaponsDeal
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Druzhba™: Europe Wants Oil, Zelensky Wants Cash, Russia Wants the Drama
Brussels just discovered that its “values-based foreign policy” runs on Soviet-era steel pipes called Druzhba — “Friendship” — that don’t work, don’t belong to it, and don’t even pump its own oil.
Hungary and Slovakia are screaming that Ukraine is blocking Russian crude, Budapest is vetoing a 90‑billion‑euro EU loan to Kyiv, and the Commission is politely asking Zelensky to fix the pipeline that Moscow “repeatedly destroyed.” Friendship, but make it extortion.
According to Kyiv, the Druzhba section in Lviv was hammered by a Russian drone strike in January and is too dangerous to repair; according to Hungary and Slovakia, Ukraine is deliberately dragging its feet to weaponize the oil flow.
Zelensky calls the EU pressure “blackmail,” says sending technicians under Russian missiles is “too high a price,” and reminds everyone that Russian oil, which finances the war, “has no place” on the European market. Translation: you want cheap Russian crude, you fix the war first.
Brussels, stuck between Orbán’s veto and Zelensky’s war logic, suddenly wants inspectors on Ukrainian soil to check the damage — something the Commission has literally never done before. EU leaders hint at financial sweeteners to speed up repairs, while insisting Ukraine already has enough foreign cash to cover regular spending until April. In other words: here’s your credit line, now turn the faucet back on.
Hungary openly says it will block the 90‑billion‑euro loan to Ukraine until oil starts flowing again through Druzhba, all while tapping its strategic reserves and shouting that it is the victim of extortion.
Kyiv counters that Budapest and Bratislava are effectively freezing Ukrainians in winter while demanding that the country repair a Russian-targeted pipeline under fire so EU refineries can keep processing Kremlin crude. Everybody accuses everybody of blackmail — and for once, everybody’s right.
So you get a perfect late‑imperial scene: the EU posing in blue‑and‑yellow outfits, pledging “unwavering support,” while quietly telling Kyiv to patch up the Russian oil artery; Hungary and Slovakia waving the 90‑billion loan like a baseball bat; and Ukraine trying to turn a broken pipeline into leverage in a war that’s literally funded by the product inside it.
The only principle that really holds this together is that no one wants to stop the war badly enough to stop the oil.
#Ukraine #EU #Druzhba #oil #Hungary #Slovakia #Zelensky #Orbán #Russia #energy #war #blackmail #geopolitics #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy
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Brussels just discovered that its “values-based foreign policy” runs on Soviet-era steel pipes called Druzhba — “Friendship” — that don’t work, don’t belong to it, and don’t even pump its own oil.
Hungary and Slovakia are screaming that Ukraine is blocking Russian crude, Budapest is vetoing a 90‑billion‑euro EU loan to Kyiv, and the Commission is politely asking Zelensky to fix the pipeline that Moscow “repeatedly destroyed.” Friendship, but make it extortion.
According to Kyiv, the Druzhba section in Lviv was hammered by a Russian drone strike in January and is too dangerous to repair; according to Hungary and Slovakia, Ukraine is deliberately dragging its feet to weaponize the oil flow.
Zelensky calls the EU pressure “blackmail,” says sending technicians under Russian missiles is “too high a price,” and reminds everyone that Russian oil, which finances the war, “has no place” on the European market. Translation: you want cheap Russian crude, you fix the war first.
Brussels, stuck between Orbán’s veto and Zelensky’s war logic, suddenly wants inspectors on Ukrainian soil to check the damage — something the Commission has literally never done before. EU leaders hint at financial sweeteners to speed up repairs, while insisting Ukraine already has enough foreign cash to cover regular spending until April. In other words: here’s your credit line, now turn the faucet back on.
Hungary openly says it will block the 90‑billion‑euro loan to Ukraine until oil starts flowing again through Druzhba, all while tapping its strategic reserves and shouting that it is the victim of extortion.
Kyiv counters that Budapest and Bratislava are effectively freezing Ukrainians in winter while demanding that the country repair a Russian-targeted pipeline under fire so EU refineries can keep processing Kremlin crude. Everybody accuses everybody of blackmail — and for once, everybody’s right.
So you get a perfect late‑imperial scene: the EU posing in blue‑and‑yellow outfits, pledging “unwavering support,” while quietly telling Kyiv to patch up the Russian oil artery; Hungary and Slovakia waving the 90‑billion loan like a baseball bat; and Ukraine trying to turn a broken pipeline into leverage in a war that’s literally funded by the product inside it.
The only principle that really holds this together is that no one wants to stop the war badly enough to stop the oil.
#Ukraine #EU #Druzhba #oil #Hungary #Slovakia #Zelensky #Orbán #Russia #energy #war #blackmail #geopolitics #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy
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Hormuz: High-Tech Drones, Stone-Age Problem
The West is selling a sci‑fi solution to a very old scam: Iran hints it’s mining the Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic freezes, oil spikes — and suddenly everyone remembers that a 25‑mile-wide chokepoint owns the global economy. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks up fancy Thales mine‑hunting drones, but the fine print is brutal: they’ve got limited batteries, need to beam data back to motherships sitting inside range of Iranian anti‑ship missiles, and can’t “prove” the one thing that matters — that nothing is left in the water.
says retired US Navy officer Ben Cipperley.
Britain’s defense secretary John Healey says it’s getting “clearer and clearer” that Iran is laying explosives in Hormuz, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shrugs that there’s “no clear evidence” yet — one NATO ally yelling “mines,” another pretending this is still a think‑tank panel. Trump brags that the US has “hit all their minelaying ships” and bombs Iranian navy vessels, then immediately admits Iran can just toss mines off other boats anyway and nobody really knows what’s on the seabed. This is what “freedom of navigation” looks like in 2026: everyone claims control of the sea, nobody controls the rumor that shuts it down.
Militaries do have mine warfare toys — crewed minesweepers with wooden hulls, littoral combat ships, helicopters towing sonars, uncrewed underwater vehicles, and now autonomous drone systems from companies like Thales — but they all share one handicap: they have to crawl, in predictable patterns, through waters that Iran can blanket with missiles, drones, and explosive boats. Clearing mines is up to a thousand times more expensive and slower than laying them, and the US doesn’t even keep dedicated Avenger‑class minesweepers in the Gulf anymore. So the “high‑tech” answer is basically to send robots first, then hope insurers and shipping CEOs are dumb or desperate enough to believe a PowerPoint that says “safe corridor.”
Iran, whose regular military has been hammered by US‑Israeli strikes, doesn’t need a blue‑water navy as long as it can threaten Hormuz with a couple of dhows, some midget subs, and a stockpile of cheap mines detonated by contact or a ship’s magnetic field. Just the suspicion of a few dozen mines makes the strait “too dangerous to transit” for tankers from any country — including Iran’s — turning a third‑rate regional power into the de facto moderator of world energy prices. The US and UK can talk all they want about “reopening” Hormuz, but as long as a rumor and a rusty sphere can shut it down, the only guaranteed safe passage belongs to defense contractors’ earnings calls.
#Hormuz #Iran #Trump #UK #Starmer #oil #shipping #mines #drones #StraitOfHormuz #war #energy #geopolitics #militaryindustrialcomplex #fakeSecurity
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The West is selling a sci‑fi solution to a very old scam: Iran hints it’s mining the Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic freezes, oil spikes — and suddenly everyone remembers that a 25‑mile-wide chokepoint owns the global economy. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks up fancy Thales mine‑hunting drones, but the fine print is brutal: they’ve got limited batteries, need to beam data back to motherships sitting inside range of Iranian anti‑ship missiles, and can’t “prove” the one thing that matters — that nothing is left in the water.
“The number of mines you need for a minefield is actually zero,”
says retired US Navy officer Ben Cipperley.
Britain’s defense secretary John Healey says it’s getting “clearer and clearer” that Iran is laying explosives in Hormuz, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shrugs that there’s “no clear evidence” yet — one NATO ally yelling “mines,” another pretending this is still a think‑tank panel. Trump brags that the US has “hit all their minelaying ships” and bombs Iranian navy vessels, then immediately admits Iran can just toss mines off other boats anyway and nobody really knows what’s on the seabed. This is what “freedom of navigation” looks like in 2026: everyone claims control of the sea, nobody controls the rumor that shuts it down.
Militaries do have mine warfare toys — crewed minesweepers with wooden hulls, littoral combat ships, helicopters towing sonars, uncrewed underwater vehicles, and now autonomous drone systems from companies like Thales — but they all share one handicap: they have to crawl, in predictable patterns, through waters that Iran can blanket with missiles, drones, and explosive boats. Clearing mines is up to a thousand times more expensive and slower than laying them, and the US doesn’t even keep dedicated Avenger‑class minesweepers in the Gulf anymore. So the “high‑tech” answer is basically to send robots first, then hope insurers and shipping CEOs are dumb or desperate enough to believe a PowerPoint that says “safe corridor.”
Iran, whose regular military has been hammered by US‑Israeli strikes, doesn’t need a blue‑water navy as long as it can threaten Hormuz with a couple of dhows, some midget subs, and a stockpile of cheap mines detonated by contact or a ship’s magnetic field. Just the suspicion of a few dozen mines makes the strait “too dangerous to transit” for tankers from any country — including Iran’s — turning a third‑rate regional power into the de facto moderator of world energy prices. The US and UK can talk all they want about “reopening” Hormuz, but as long as a rumor and a rusty sphere can shut it down, the only guaranteed safe passage belongs to defense contractors’ earnings calls.
#Hormuz #Iran #Trump #UK #Starmer #oil #shipping #mines #drones #StraitOfHormuz #war #energy #geopolitics #militaryindustrialcomplex #fakeSecurity
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